Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunkport, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:07PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:50 AM EST (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:20PMMoonset 4:00AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 331 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late Monday night...
Today..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then rain and snow showers likely after midnight. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Snow and rain showers likely. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 331 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure begins to pull offshore with winds backing to the southwest. The next system approaches from the southwest on Monday with gusty winds and low visibility in rain and fog possible into Tuesday. High pressure builds in midweek. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunkport, ME
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location: 43.37, -70.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 080452 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1152 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds east and will crest across the area tonight with light winds, mainly clear skies, and cold temperatures. The high retreats offshore on Sunday allowing a milder return flow to develop. By Monday, temperatures in the 40s will be common. But along with the milder weather will come rain as a low pressure system crosses the region Monday and Tuesday. Much colder air follows this system for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Update . Have updated the forecast to account for latest temperatures, dew points and cloud cover. Have increased pops in the mountains where snow showers continue across the upslope terrain.

Prev Disc . 1035 PM . It's a night where forecasting temps can really hurt a forecaster's brain. Some sheltered areas are plummeting /KHIE/, some that normally do, are not, thanks to some wind/KIZG/, while others have gone gone back up at bit after falling quickly post-sunset. I've played for mostly falling temps thru the night but some slowing in spots. Some valleys across NH will likely see lows close to zero or below in many spots, while lows in parts of ME will likely be more in the single digits above zero.

655 PM . Temps falling off quickly in sheltered areas, and have lowered mins by several degrees in these areas. Meso models do want to slow the fall as cirrus moves in from the west, but it's a ways off to the west, so may need to lower the mins yet again later. Certainly it's clear, dry and not very mixy on the boundary lyr through most of the night, so could see good rad cooling thru most of the night.

At 18z a 1031 millibar high was draped across the eastern Great Lakes. Upslope flow and the downstream moisture plume off the Great Lakes . along with a passing impulse was producing a few cloud streets along with scattered light snow showers/flurries at moment For tonight. the surface high will build east with skies becoming mainly clear even across mountain sections by late tonight. The fresh snowpack, clearing skies and light winds will allow the mercury to tumble overnight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the single numbers with a few subzero readings possible across the normally colder mountain valleys.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. On Sunday the surface high center will slide offshore to our south with a sunny and cold start to the day Then. warm air advection mid and high clouds will arrive across northern and central sections by afternoon along with the chance for a brief snow shower. Milder return flow should produce temperatures several degrees warmer then today Mostly cloudy tomorrow night. with some light rain possible after midnight over southern New Hampshire and southwest coastal Maine . and a light wintry mix further inland as surface temperatures remain at or below 32F while the column aloft warms overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Main story will be a mild storm system moving thru the region Mon into Tue. With a deep trof digging into the central CONUS and high pressure departing off the East Coast . deep SW flow will be supported thru the region. The best chances for precip breaking out continue to be around midday Mon . which likely gives us enough time to warm above freezing before it starts. The dry air initially may support a little frozen precip due to evaporative cooling . but that should quickly be overwhelmed by warming at the surface and aloft. Model forecasts move the system along fairly quickly and cut it far enough W to bring the dry slot thru the area . both of which should limit overall QPF. Ensemble guidance has been fairly consistent around 1 inch . focused mainly along the coastal front and another area in the SE upslope regions of the White Mtns. Guidance is forecasting anywhere from a 0.5 to 1.5 inches snow water loss thru the storm . due to both warm temps and rainfall assisting in melting. That does leave a fairly large range of 1 to 2.5 inches of run off possible thru the event . so confidence is still fairly low on impacts. Ensemble river forecasts bring a couple gauges above action stage . see more in the hydro section below. Another concern will be winds Mon night as the strongest LLJ moves overhead. The greatest concern will be if we can sneak the surface warm sector into parts of the forecast area overlapping with the LLJ. The highest probability outcome is the warm sector delays until after the LLJ has lifted NEwd . but there is enough of a threat that I increased wind gusts along coastal Wrn ME to around 30 to 35 knots.

The cold front will be left trailing as forcing moves into Quebec. This may keep cloudiness around for a longer period of time for coastal zones into Tue night and even Wed. A trailing SW/V trof will move along the boundary Wed . and may allow for some weak amplification thru the day. To varying extents model guidance tries to bring some precip back to the NW . but most likely the forecast area will be too far NW to reach. I have kept chance PoP around coastal zones . but not willing to push it any higher than that.

The remainder of the week will be quiet under high pressure.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /Through Sunday Night/ . Sct MVFR in mtn cigs and -shsn . then VFR throughout aft 05z Sun. Areas of MVFR dvlpg aft 06z Mon in -RA southern New Hampshire and southwest coastal Maine with -SNPL north and mountains.

Long Term . Still expecting an extended period of IFR conditions beginning Mon as much warmer and more moist air moves into the region over a cold snowpack. Widespread IFR will continue thru Mon night with clearing from the NW Tue. MVFR CIGs will linger in the mtns with upslope flow around HIE. A window of LLWS is also expected Mon night as the strongest part of the LLJ moves overhead. MVFR conditions may move back into coastal terminals Wed as a weak wave may try an form along the stalled front. Most likely this remains far enough offshore that VFR is expected.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Sunday Night/ . Update . Gale watches have been hoisted for upcoming southerly gradient.

Prev Disc . Decreasing winds and seas through Sunday morning as high pressure builds overhead. Winds and seas increase Sunday afternoon as the high retreats offshore with SCA conditions likely outside the bays. Winds could briefly gust to near gale outside the bays Sunday night.

Long Term . LLJ continues to increase thru the day Mon and will be at its strongest Mon night. A period of gales is looking more and more likely outside the bays Mon night . with possible gale force gusts inside the bays during the overnight as well. Confidence was still too low for a gale watch at this time. Whatever winds and seas do build into Tue morning will gradually diminish thru Wed as high pressure builds in behind the departing storm.

HYDROLOGY. Mild temperatures, high dew points, and periods of rain will impact the area Monday and Tuesday and erode snow cover across the region, particularly over southern New Hampshire and coastal western Maine. While the fresh snow will initially absorb rainfall, the snow will likely reach capacity and begin melting. This will lead to an influx of water into local waterways. At this time, southern New Hampshire has over a foot of snow in places with liquid equivalent likely exceeding 1", with some areas possibly closer to 2". Should moderate rainfall occur in areas with high snow water equivalent, instances of localized flooding will be possible in poor drainage areas, as well as some main stem rivers and tributaries rising above action stage.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ150-152-154.

JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 7 mi50 min W 1.9 15°F 10°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 8 mi50 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 15°F 40°F1032.1 hPa (+1.2)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 13 mi106 min WNW 12 G 16 28°F 2 ft1032.1 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 19 mi60 min NW 9.7 G 9.7 24°F 43°F1 ft1031.4 hPa (+1.0)14°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 22 mi56 min 18°F 39°F
CMLN3 25 mi166 min 7 42°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi65 min Calm 8°F 1032 hPa6°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 30 mi50 min WNW 14 G 17 23°F 1031.5 hPa (+1.0)17°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi42 min 48°F3 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME14 mi54 minW 410.00 miFair-2°F-5°F87%1032.4 hPa
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME21 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair13°F5°F70%1031.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFM

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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W6NW5W7W4NW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW4
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W11W7W9SW9W9W10SW10W10SW12SW6CalmS3CalmN3N4N5NW4NW5W4W4NW8N4
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Porpoise, Maine
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Cape Porpoise
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:03 AM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:18 AM EST     8.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:37 PM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM EST     8.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.61.11.52.74.66.57.98.58.37.35.53.61.910.91.73.35.26.87.887.35.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wood Island Harbor, Maine
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Wood Island Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:08 AM EST     8.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:19 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:34 PM EST     8.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.41.21.83.25.16.98.18.68.37.15.13.11.60.912.13.75.67.1887.25.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.