Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kennebunkport, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
An area of forcing associated with WAA aloft is pushing through northern zones early this morning with steady precipitation transitioning to showers. Within this lull in precipitation some fog will become likely into day break. Temperatures will continue to warm through the pre dawn hours so mainly rain is expected.

An approaching short wave and the left exit region of an upper jet will help deepen an area of low pressure overhead. This low will track into Quebec this evening dragging a cold front across the area bringing increasing chances for rain later this morning through this evening. A corridor of MU CAPE of a few hundred J/kg will nose into coastal Maine bringing the chance for a few rumbles of thunder. Highs today will range from the upper 40s north to upper 50s across southern NH and coastal Maine.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The cold front will sweep across the area tonight with chances for precipitation diminishing outside of some mountain rain and snow showers. Gusty NW winds will usher in a much colder airmass with temperatures dropping into the 20s to low 30s north to south.

A TPV dropping south over the Great Lakes early this morning will swing across New England during the day Tuesday. This feature will bring a cold pool of H5 temperatures around -35C overhead Tuesday afternoon and may aid in some instability for snow showers. A few CAM solutions bring snow squall parameters >1 across portions of the Northeast into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon while the lack of a frontal forcing feature suggest organized snow squalls are unlikely. Nevertheless CAMs do suggest there will be scattered snow showers Tuesday afternoon that will have potential to bring a quick coating of snow. The best chances for snow showers will be in the mountains but snow showers downstream cannot be ruled out. Highs on Tuesday will remain below freezing in the mountains with upper 30s to low 40s south of the mountains. Gusty NW to W winds will make it feel 10 to 20 degrees cooler.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
01Z NBM Update...No significant changes in the NBM with persistent northwest flow aloft favoring snow showers in the mountains while areas to the south remain mostly dry.

Pattern Overview: The 500mb weather pattern is going to be dominated by troughing through the long term period. This will support unsettled conditions, but lack of large scale synoptic forcing at the surface looks to preclude any significant precipitation events.

Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather impacts expected at this time

Wednesday and Thursday: A brief period of dry weather looks likely Wednesday morning as we get some shortwave ridging in between troughs. The next trough rotates in midday, but surface low pressure remains north of the area so any precipitation looks to stay confined to the mountains. Clouds should be abundant across the area regardless as southwesterly flow brings in some mid-level moisture. This will limit high temperatures to the low to mid-40s south of the mountains, and to the mid- to upper 30s to the north. As the axis of this broad trough moves overhead Wednesday night, clouds begin to clear out south of the mountains allowing for a uniform low temperatures across the area in the mid to upper 20s (maybe the immediate coastal plain holds in the low 30s). The trough makes its exit Thursday, with models on the fence about how much forcing aloft occurs as it does. The Euro is favoring more forcing overhead and more light shower activity, while the Canadian and GFS keep the better forcing to the south favoring just upslope showers in the mountains. High and low temperatures similar to Wednesday can be expected.

Friday-Sunday: Models are in good agreement that a blocking ridge sets up in the central Atlantic late in the week. This brings vertically stacked low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to a standstill, but disturbances continue to rotate around it and through our area. There is unsurprisingly much uncertainty at this point between models on what these are going to look like, but it is safe to say that unsettled weather looks to continue through the weekend. There is even some suggestion that the block breaks down early next week allowing for more organized systems to make it into the area once again.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...There will be a lull in steady rain into this morning while low cigs and drizzle will continue IFR to LIFR conditions. Another round of rain moves through during the day today with IFR likely prevailing at all sites into this evening.
A cold front crosses tonight bringing drier air and condition improving to VFR, with the exception of upslope cloud -SHSN at KHIE. Upslope clouds and snow showers likely impact KHIE through Tuesday and some snow showers may be possible downstream of the mountains. Otherwise mainly VFR prevails Tuesday with WNW gusting 25-30 kts.

Long Term...Outside of brief rain/snow showers VFR should be the prevailing condition through Friday south of the mountains.
LEB and HIE have the higher chances of longer duration MVFR/IFR as snow showers look to remain prevalent in the mountains.
Wednesday looks like the best chance for widespread MVFR.

MARINE
Short Term...East southeast will peak early this morning and then subside around sunrise while sea remain elevated. Have extended the SCA for elevated seas into this afternoon. A cold front crossing tonight will bring a wind shift out of the west into Tuesday. These west winds will gust to Gale force Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Long Term...Winds drop to below Gale force Wednesday morning while SCA conditions continue through the day Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions look likely Friday through the weekend as a ridge sets up in the Atlantic.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for ANZ150-152-154.