Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:02PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:36 AM EDT (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 11:16PMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 755 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201908230315;;056948 FZUS51 KBUF 222355 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 755 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-230315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230611
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
211 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A comfortably cool and dry weather pattern will be over western and
central new york right through the weekend. There may be some
typical inland valley fog during the overnight and early morning
hours. The next chance of rain along with warmer weather won't
return until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through today
A relatively amplified upper level pattern is in place over much of
eastern canada southward into the great lakes region. In
particular, a large upper level ridge is over the plains (poised to
give us a prolonged dry weather pattern later this weekend) while a
low spins over quebec. A sw-ne oriented jet aloft shapes the base of
the low, with a parallel and hence slow moving surface front
stretching from the ohio valley through northern pa and into eastern
ny northern new england. Clear to partly cloudy skies will remain
over the majority of our area through the remainder of the
overnight. This has left quickly shrinking dewpoint depressions
across most of the area away from the urban cores and lakeshores,
and can already see some fog forming across the valleys of the
southern tier on the nighttime microphysics rgb satellite imagery.

Aside from leftover valley fog across the southern tier and black
river valleys through mid morning, expect some morning sunshine on
Friday, followed by fairly rapid upslope induced inland
stratocumulus, with available low level moisture trapped below
~5000' as depicted with a classic inverted-v sounding. This should
clear out some with afternoon mixing - areas closest to the
lakeshores first, then progressively inland toward the southern tier
by late afternoon.

Short term tonight through Monday night
One word can be used to characterize the weather during this
period... Spectacular! The undeniably nice weather will be supported
by a progressive ridge that will move from the upper mississippi
valley across the great lakes region to the canadian maritimes. The
ridge will become part of a short lived rex block that will also
include an impotent... Moisture starved cut off mid upper level low
that will stay to our south and east. Meanwhile at the surface...

expansive high pressure will slowly cross eastern canada.

As for some day to day details... It will be quite cool across the
forecast area Friday night with most areas experiencing mins in the low
to mid 50s. For the folks across the western southern tier and in parts
of the north country... It will be feel downright chilly with
temperatures falling well into the 40s. The early fall-like conditions
will be accompanied by generally starlit skies and light winds... As
high pressure will be centered over the upper great lakes. The only
potential fly in the ointment to the otherwise clear skies will be the
passage of a longwave trough axis that could include some patchy mid
level clouds. For what its worth... It will be a vortex within this
southward moving mid level trough that will eventually become cut off
and prove to be the southern component to the aforementioned rex block.

On Saturday... The large surface high will pass by to our north across
the ontario-quebec provincial border. The resulting northeast flow of
dry 'continental polar' air will keep humidity levels quite low... But
it will also support h85 temps in the upper single digits c. This will
translate into afternoon temperatures that will straddle 70 deg f...

well below normal readings for late august. The autumn like airmass
will be tempered though by full sunshine... So this will allow for a
refreshing day for outdoor activities.

As the surface high drifts across the st lawrence valley Saturday
night... It will be just as cool as the previous night under clear skies
and light winds.

The second half of the weekend may prove to be even nicer (if that is
possible)... As the return flow around the exiting high pressure over
the canadian maritimes will encourage a little stronger warm advection.

H85 temps on Sunday will climb back above 10c... So afternoon
temperatures may actually be a little more comfortable for some...

returning to the mid 70s across the valleys and lake plains. Otherwise
we can anticipate Sun filled skies and generally ideal weather for
outdoor activities.

The large surface high... Which will be anchored in the vcnty of the
canadian maritimes Sunday night... Will reach back across new england to
the lower great lakes through Monday night. This will maintain fair dry
weather over our forecast area with temperatures slowly climb back to
above normal levels. High temperatures Monday will generally be in the
mid to upper 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
There is high confidence that temperatures will average above normal
during this period... As a broad longwave trough will slowly carve
across the center of the continent. Warmer and more humid air will
funnel to the northeast across the lower great lakes in advance of the
trough with h85 temperatures generally in the mid teens c. This will
easily support mercury readings of at least the lower 80s in the
valleys and across the lake plains each afternoon... While overnight
lows will be in the 60s. These values will be a solid 5 degrees above
normal levels.

In regards to precipitation... A warm front is forecast to push to the
north across the region late Monday night or Tuesday. While this could
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms... A higher chance for
precipitation will come Tuesday night into Wednesday when the
associated cold front will slowly cross the region. Given the lack of
strong continuity and model to model consistency... Will refrain from
going higher than chc pops.

High pressure is then forecast to build across the region later
Wednesday into Thursday. This will encourage the return of fair
weather along with more comfortable humidity levels.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Clear to partly cloudy skies will remain over the majority of our
area through the remainder of the overnight. Excellent radiational
cooling setup, and can already see some fog forming across the
valleys of the southern tier. This may impact kjhw late tonight
into early Friday morning with a period of ifr MVFR CIGS vsby
with the remainder of the area seeingVFR conditions.

Cold air aloft will promote efficient cumulus development on Friday,
however the majority of it should beVFR.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late night and
morning.

Tuesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Near SCA conditions will continue to weaken through Friday morning.

Another round north-northeast winds could result in another period
of choppy conditions late Friday night into Saturday on lake
ontario, but again it looks like conditions stay below small craft
advisory criteria. Gradient flow will relax some later Saturday
afternoon into Sunday as high pressure builds closer the lakes. This
will promote light winds and diminishing waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Zaff
near term... Fries jm
short term... Rsh
long term... Ar jla
aviation... Jm zaff
marine... Jm zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 23 mi54 min 62°F 1015.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi36 min W 6 G 8 65°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi36 min N 9.9 G 14 67°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.3)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 38 mi36 min N 16 G 18 68°F 1015.5 hPa56°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.