Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:46AM||Sunset 8:47PM||Friday July 19, 2019 6:58 PM EDT (22:58 UTC)||Moonrise 9:41PM||Moonset 7:16AM||Illumination 92%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
522 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the night
within a very warm and humid airmass. Oppressive summer heat
and humidity is expected across the whole area on Saturday,
though there will be a continued risk of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front is expected to cross the area Sunday
night, allowing for a break from the heat and humidity by early
Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Will clear the severe thunderstorm watch for all areas except
for the southern tier and lake erie with this update.
The main line of convection is now along the nys pa border and
is producing thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and potential
for strong damaging winds. This activity is forming along a sb
cape environment of 2k - 3k j kg. With a deep warm cloud layer,
frequent lightning is also found within these storms.
Also will need to monitor additional storms developing upstream
over SE lower michigan as these could move in later this
evening across the western southern tier.
Otherwise within an unstable environment through the overnight
period a few stray showers or thunderstorms will remain
Lows tonight will be sultry, only in the mid to upper 70s on the
lake plains and lower 70s in the southern tier valleys and lewis
county. The very warm and humid nighttime conditions will offer
little relief in buildings without air conditioning.
On Saturday, attn early in the day could be an MCS moving by
just to the north. Uncertainty on northward extent of this
complex. So, right now at least, expect less cloud cover than
was around today. Therefore think we will be able to realize
some of the higher heat index values projected. For that reason
and the very warm and humid conditions tonight, left the going
heat headlines in place. All this will depend on extent of
convection around during the morning though.
May see additional showers and storms try to develop in the
afternoon during peak heating on Saturday, though without stronger
forcing from an upstream mvc, it may be tough if we are more into
stronger capping environment seen upstream on 12z detroit sounding.
Lake breezes may be able to overcome that though. Any showers and
thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon will continue to track east
and weaken into Saturday evening. Similar to today though, abundance
of instability would mean some storms may pose a risk of having
damaging winds and heavy rain even as deep layer shear remains
Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday night
The relief from the heat and humidity is not far away as a pair of
cold fronts approach western and north-central ny Saturday night.
Any showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon will continue
to track east and weaken into Saturday evening. The first, nearly
west to east oriented cold front will approach the region from the
north Saturday evening. While daytime heating has come to an end, a
warm and humid airmass will remain across the region Saturday night.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front sags slowly
southward. Due to the abundance of instability and low-level
convergence moving across, some storms may pose a risk of having
damaging winds and heavy rain into Sunday morning. Mild and humid
temperatures expected with overnight lows only dropping to the low
to mid 70s.
The relief from the humidity will be felt Sunday, first across the
north country and by afternoon across portions of western ny. There
is discrepancy as to how fast the humid airmass cold front leaves
western ny Sunday. Dewpoints will likely remain elevated, near 70
across the southern tier. While the cold front is south of the ny pa
border, showers and thunderstorms are possible through the early
evening with the highest risk south of i-90. High temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 80s.
The second cold front should move through the region Sunday night.
An amplified shortwave trough will move across the upper great
lakes. Low pressure will form near the ohio valley and along the
first cold front. The surface low will ride along the front and into
the mid-atlantic and southern new england. The front may backbuild
slightly resulting in low chances of showers and thunderstorms
across western ny. Dry conditions should occur across the north
country. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
Showers are likely across western and north-central ny as low
pressure moves to the south and east of the region. Models have been
trending closer and wetter with this system. At this time, light
rainfall amounts expected but if this trend continues more rainfall
is possible. A light north-northwest wind and mostly cloudy
conditions will lead to cooler conditions across western and north
central ny. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s Monday. Dry
conditions expected Monday night with temperatures in the mid
50's to low 60's.
Long term Tuesday through Friday
A lingering mid and upper level trough will provide for the chance
of showers on Tuesday as an increased moisture flux and trough axis
pass through the area during this time. There is the potential for a
shortwave to pass through the area on Thursday providing the chance
for some showers and thunderstorms, but guidance is still split on
the timing and location for the potential for precip. The overall
pattern for this period will maintain a trough over the eastern half
of the country that will start to weaken and shift east late Friday
into the weekend.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday with
highs in the low to mid 70s for most areas and a few upper 70s for
areas of the lake plains. A slight warming trend will begin for
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will increase closer to normal
with highs around 80 for most of the area.
Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
Northern portions of the niagara frontier will experience showers
and storms through mid afternoon as mesoscale convective complex
moves in from ontario. Have indicated gusty winds to 40 kts and ifr
vsby as this moves through. Also have the potential that convection
may develop upstream across southwest ontario this afternoon could
move into western ny by this evening. After MVFR CIGS scatter out
early this afternoon, CIGS vsby will beVFR the vast majority of the
time into Saturday, but any additional showers and storms will
produce local brief MVFR to ifr conditions.
Saturday night through Monday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a few
brief rounds of showers and thunderstorms with associated local MVFR
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.
Southwest winds will increase to around 15 knots again on Saturday.
This will produce choppy conditions at times especially on lake
erie, although winds and waves will likely remain below small craft
There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
through the rest of the weekend. Any thunderstorm may produce
locally higher winds and waves.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for nyz006>008-010>012-
Excessive heat warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for nyz001>005-
Synopsis... Hitchcock jla
near term... Hitchcock jla thomas
short term... Hsk
long term... Sw
aviation... Hitchcock jla
marine... Hitchcock jla
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY||23 mi||64 min||78°F||1008.1 hPa|
|RPRN6 - Rochester, NY||24 mi||58 min||WSW 13 G 17||80°F|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||37 mi||58 min||SW 6 G 11||81°F||1009.8 hPa (-0.4)|
|45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY||38 mi||38 min||W 14 G 16||76°F||72°F||72°F|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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