Monday, March30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:36PM Monday March 30, 2020 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:22AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1040 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy, then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ042 Expires:202003300915;;283037 FZUS51 KBUF 300240 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1040 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-300915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 300249 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1049 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will exit across the North Country the rest of tonight. Colder air is already moving back into the region and this will continue through Monday with occasional showers expanding across the region, which may mix with a little wet snow Monday night. A few widely scattered showers cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Tuesday night, then drier and warmer weather will return late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A few showers linger across the North Country, but those will exit by midnight. Isolated showers are beginning to slide into western NY as cool, moist cyclonic flow begins to move into the region from the central Great Lakes. Gradient southwest winds into this evening have gusted over 45 mph in a few locations, especially from Niagara county into the higher terrain east of Lake Erie as well as the lower elevations over Chautauqua county, but these have now diminished to less than 40 mph.

Showers moving into western NY should increase in coverage through the night on into Monday as deep wrap around moisture and forcing arrive from the closed upper level low to the west. The system will become nearly vertically stacked by early Monday morning, with the low tracking slowly east across southern Ontario to near the Thousand Islands region by Monday evening. The best coverage of showers will be found east of Lakes Erie and Ontario as limited lake instability develops, and more importantly upslope flow increases. Temperatures have tumbled this evening and that trend will continue into Monday as high temperatures will only top out in the mid 40s at lower elevations and around 40 across higher terrain.

Showers will continue Monday night in moist/cyclonic flow as the vertically stacked low moves ESE across New England. Boundary layer temperatures will become cool enough Monday night to support some wet snow mixing in across higher terrain at first, and possibly across lower elevations after midnight. There may be some very minor, slushy accumulations on the hills. Lows will reach the mid to upper 30s at lower elevations, and lower 30s on the hills.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level low off the New England coast will gradually merge with an approaching shortwave and form a broad and weak low across New England and the lower Great Lakes. Our region will mainly be underneath this feature, and the weak flow aloft associated with this system will not provide much in the way of dynamic lift. It will maintain mainly cool and cloudy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday since lots of low level moisture will remain locked in place. 850 mb temperatures will average -3c to -6c during the period, which will hold daytime highs in the lower to mid 40s on Tuesday. There also may be some showers or drizzle Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly due to the low level moisture and modest upsloping. A few wet snowflakes may be mixed in across higher terrain. Wednesday will be slightly warmer since there will be a few breaks of sun late in the day as a surface ridge begins to build in from central Canada.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. There is good model agreement that a mainly dry pattern will develop late next week. A broad upper level low is forecast to split into two, but this trough axis will remain to our north and east. Meanwhile, an elongated area of surface high pressure will gradually build into our region from the west on Thursday and Friday. This will result in dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday.

An upper level ridge axis across our region Friday night will very gradually make its way eastward. Eventually, a weak cold front associated with low pressure tracking into northern Ontario province will move across the area, but there is very poor model agreement timing this frontal passage. The 06Z GFS is notably faster than the 00Z ECMWF (by around 36 hours) with the 00Z GEM roughly a compromise. Forecast uses consensus timing which brings the front through late Saturday. Either way, the front is quite weak, with only a small chance of showers and slightly cooler weather behind it. Highs over the weekend will generally be in the 50s, with 60 degrees possible on Saturday if the slower frontal timing verifies.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Winds will continue to diminish late this evening. Showers moving into western NY will expand over the rest of the area and continue off and on through Monday with MVFR vsby becoming more prevalent in steadier showers late tonight through Monday. CIGS will drop to MVFR at lower elevations, and IFR across higher terrain.

Outlook .

Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Thursday through Friday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Winds are southwest behind a cold front that has sweep east across the region. Though small craft conditions will ease on Lake Ontario later tonight, the moderate southwesterlies will continue supporting small craft conditions on Lake Erie through Monday evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ030-042. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 23 mi53 min 53°F 1009.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi65 min WSW 17 G 26 53°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi65 min SW 11 G 17 51°F 1009.8 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE7
G11
NE7
G10
E9
G12
E6
NE3
E6
G9
E8
G11
E4
SE7
G10
SE8
G11
S12
G16
S13
G16
S17
S10
G15
SW24
G47
S11
S16
S23
S20
S21
SW21
S16
G21
S18
G22
S17
G23
1 day
ago
E7
G10
E8
G11
NE10
G15
NE8
G12
E6
G10
E5
G9
NE5
E6
G10
E4
NE5
E4
E8
G12
E7
G11
NE8
G12
E9
G12
E6
G12
E6
G10
E6
G11
NE6
NE5
NE7
NE8
G11
NE7
G10
NE6
G11
2 days
ago
E4
G7
N6
G9
NE5
G8
N3
G7
NE5
NW2
NW2
S2
G5
SW5
G8
SW7
SW6
W5
G8
W8
N9
G12
N10
G14
N8
NE8
G14
NE8
E6
G11

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.