Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:53PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 4:44 AM EDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 720 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:202007070315;;433631 FZUS51 KBUF 062320 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 720 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-070315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 070824 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 424 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Heat and humidity will build through the rest of the week, peaking on Thursday and Friday. The majority of the time will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening mainly inland from the lakes. A weak cold front will arrive Saturday and bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms, and will also bring somewhat cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A gradual increase in low level moisture combined with radiational cooling will allow river valley fog to expand across the Southern Tier through daybreak. The fog will then burn off mid morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly clear early this morning with just a few patches of high/thin cirrus.

The strong and sprawling ridge over the Midwest will build a little farther northeast into the eastern Great Lakes today. Associated warm mid level temps and poor lapse rates will keep the vast majority of the area dry. A very weak/subtle mid level shortwave will move into Central NY later this afternoon, and this may support a few isolated showers and storms from the western Finger Lakes to points southeast and east of Lake Ontario. Coverage will remain very sparse if anything does develop.

Another convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will move into NW PA this evening. This may support a few scattered showers and storms across the western Southern Tier this evening. Otherwise the rest of the area will stay dry through the evening and early overnight.

Late tonight and Wednesday morning another weak shortwave trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will bring some increase in clouds late tonight through Wednesday morning for much of the area, and possibly a few showers. Model guidance continues to suggest the best chance of showers with this feature will be Wednesday morning across the North Country where forcing is a little stronger. The shortwave will move into eastern NY and New England later in the afternoon. A few more widely scattered showers and storms may develop from the Southern Tier to areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario in the early afternoon before ending late afternoon as subsidence increases behind the departing trough.

Heat will continue today and Wednesday, with humidity also slowly increasing. There is still some dry air aloft today, so dewpoints may mix out some in the afternoon. By Wednesday dewpoints will be into the upper 60s areawide. Highs today and Wednesday will reach the lower 90s across the lower elevations of the lake plains away from the immediate lakeshores, with mid to upper 80s across the higher elevations. The heat index will peak in the mid 90s across the lake plain counties this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. A few localized upper 90s heat index readings are likely in narrow bands 5-10 miles inland from the lakeshores where surface dewpoint pooling on the inland side of lake breeze boundaries occurs.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. . Heat and humidity will peak Thursday and then continue into Friday with heat indices topping out in the 95F-100F degree range both days .

Wednesday night, any lingering convection will quickly die shortly after sunset and then this will likely be the last of less muggy nights. With that said, in no ways will it be a comfortable without the AC. The only relief will be found well inland where lows may briefly fall back into the low to mid 60s. Elsewhere, lows will be in the mid to upper 60s near 70F along the lake plains.

Surface high pressure and building heights aloft will likely provide a largely dry day across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. Any convection under this ridge will be limited to well inland across the western Southern Tier and likely focus on ill defined convergent boundaries. Even this will be a stretch, as BUFKIT profile soundings show a fairly strong mid level cap present. Otherwise, the main story will be the heat and humidity as H850T hover in the +19C to +21C range, with highs will topping out in the 90s. This will send heat indices into the 95F-100F degree range. Therefore, Heat Advisories will remain in effect across the Lake Plains and into the Finger Lakes region.

Muggy and mild conditions will follow for Thursday night with lows in the mid 70s along the lake plains. Not much relief will be found across interior locations with lows found in the upper 60s near 70F by daybreak.

Friday, near repeat of Thursday with little change in terms of heat and humidity. It may be a degree or two cooler but it won't feel that way. The only change will be a tad bit more coverage in terms of showers and thunderstorms which will likely add a bit more cloud coverage over the region. Additionally, any storms that do form will have the potential to produce very heavy downpours and move very slowly. Otherwise, with the added cloud cover this may be just enough to nudge highs down a degree or so but highs will still be found in the 90s with indices in the 95F-100F degree range.

Friday night, another muggy and mild night is on tap with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend. Otherwise, lows will again be similar to the previous night with upper 60s to lower 70s across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Mid-level trough and complex coastal system will combine to bring bring some relief from the heat and humidity over the weekend. It will also lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms which will be welcomed as the ground has become parched across many locations. In terms of temperatures, highs will fall back near or remain slightly above normal with upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. River valley fog will continue to expand across the western Southern Tier through daybreak with areas of IFR. Some of this will likely impact KJHW for a few hours around daybreak. The valley fog will dissipate by mid morning. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon mainly across the western Southern Tier and points east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Coverage will be very sparse, with VFR prevailing in most areas.

Another batch of scattered showers and storms may cross the western Southern Tier this evening with local/brief MVFR to IFR conditions. A weak trough will then approach toward daybreak Wednesday with increasing clouds and isolated showers possible across much of the region.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers and storms each afternoon mainly inland from the lakes with local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern Tier Valley fog with local IFR.

Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

MARINE. Relatively light winds will continue on Lakes Erie and Ontario through the rest of the week with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds will generally be under 12 knots and waves under 2 feet.

CLIMATE. There will be an extended period of hot weather which has the potential to break some records. Some daily records will be within reach over the next several days. Also, the longest streak of 90-degree days in Buffalo may be in jeopardy. Buffalo has already hit 90 today, making it 4 days and counting. Here are the current records .

Buffalo

Tuesday - 94 (1988) Wednesday - 96 (1988) Thursday - 92 (1988) Friday - 95 (1988)

Rochester

Tuesday - 97 (1988) Wednesday - 100 (1936) Thursday - 102 (1936) Friday - 102 (1936)

Watertown

Tuesday - 99 (2008) Wednesday - 93 (1955) Thursday - 92 (1955) Friday - 92 (2007)

90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date) 1) 7/10/1988 - 7 2) 7/1/1963 - 5 3) 8/14/1947 - 5 4) 7/6/2020 (ongoing) - 4

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock CLIMATE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 23 mi63 min 67°F 1015.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi45 min S 2.9 G 4.1 73°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi45 min S 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 38 mi35 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 71°F1014.8 hPa70°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.