Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Coos Bay, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:22PM Monday January 27, 2020 4:23 PM PST (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 8:17PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 242 Pm Pst Mon Jan 27 2020
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..S wind 30 kt...rising to gales 35 kt until early morning, then...becoming sw 30 kt late tonight. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft...building to 10 to 13 ft. W swell 12 ft at 15 seconds... Subsiding to 9 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Rain in the evening, then showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft... Subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. W swell 13 to 14 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 13 to 14 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 11 to 12 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 12 to 14 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 13 to 15 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less, then...becoming 3 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft.
Sat..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft. W swell 11 to 12 ft.
PZZ300 242 Pm Pst Mon Jan 27 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. The active weather pattern will continue across the coastal waters throughout this week, with seas remaining steep to very steep into this weekend. Gales and very steep seas are expected late this afternoon through early Tuesday morning due to a passing cold front. The next front will move through Wednesday night, with a more well defined frontal system likely this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coos Bay city, OR
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location: 43.38, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 272256 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 256 PM PST Mon Jan 27 2020

SHORT TERM. Radar is showing the next set of precipitation moving through southern Oregon and northern California. The majority of the precipitation is occurring near the coast with some light to moderate precipitation occurring along the Cascades. Observations are also showing gusty winds occurring along the southern Oregon coast as well as for portions of the Shasta Valley. Right now, our highest wind gust was at Humbug Mountain in Curry County near Port Orford and Cape Blanco at 53 mph. Some of the guidance at the coast continues to trend upward and put the coast into High Wind Warning territory. However, gradients and the overall pattern with the low weakening still suggests that the coast may get close, but not reach warning criteria. Thus, do not have the confidence that it will occur. Additionally, Grey Butte in the Shasta Valley saw a wind gust to 42 mph, with the rest of the Shasta Valley having wind gusts in the 30s. Still feel confident without a wind advisory for there, for now. The breezy winds will continue into the evening before calming and allowing the precipitation to really begin. The main take away with winds (especially at the coast), is that it will be breezy; and a no- lead time High Wind Warning at the coast may be needed.

Speaking of confidences, there is high confidence that most of southern Oregon and northern California will see another good bit of precipitation as this front has a strong moisture transport that is along the lines of an atmospheric river. The initial thoughts are that snow levels will rise to around 6000 feet this afternoon before falling to around 5500 around midnight tonight before continuing to fall around 4500 feet by tomorrow afternoon. Snow accumulations will be moderate in the Cascades, 6 to 9 inches above 5000 feet, and have issued a winter weather advisory for the southern Oregon Cascades above 5000 feet including Crater and Diamond Lake, portions of Highway 62, and near the Junction of highways 138 and 230. The heaviest snow will occur between 4 AM and 4 PM. Lighter snow showers will be possible Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, heavy rain will be possible at the coast and coastal range with moderate rain rates of a third of an inch an hour at times in Curry County. The breaks in the rainfall in the previous few days will keep main stem river flooding to a minimum, however, another round of rapid stream and creek rises will be possible tonight. This includes the possibility for ponding on roadways.

Another system will move through Wednesday into Wednesday night, but this system will produce much less in the way of precipitation. This is because a ridge will be trying to build in over southern Oregon as more systems move over top the ridge. Impacts from these systems will be limited as snow levels will be rising after tomorrow. This pattern continues through Thursday night and into the extended forecast.

LONG TERM. Friday morning through Tuesday morning . It's about time that more uniformity is creeping back into the forecast. There is better model consensus regarding the high pressure off the coast of California, as it should with high pressure conditions, and that it will be sticking around for a while longer. The high pressure should cause a disturbance to pass to our north, allowing most places to stay dry Friday and most of Saturday. Unfortunately, there is still enough variability in the forecast that showers along the coast (mainly the Curry county coast), Northern Douglas County, and Cascades could not be entirely ruled out.

The high pressure seems most likely to hold through Saturday, before an approaching cold front approaches creating wet conditions for Sunday. The existence of and timing of the cold front has improved over the past few days. It seems likely to encroach on the coast early Sunday morning, and at the moment, looks to be responsible for creating widespread precipitation throughout the day. There is also fairly strong confidence in this front bringing moderate-to-strong cold air advection behind it, that will cause snow levels to drop fairly rapidly. This is likely to drive some Cascade snow but, for the time being, the severity and amounts are very much still up in the air with some north/south variability for where the heaviest areas of precipitation will occur. Beyond Sunday, things fall back out of phase and the forecast once again becomes more unclear. -miles

AVIATION. For the 27/18Z TAF Cycle . Continued showers pushing in from the southwest will cause rain and snow to overspread the area this morning and afternoon. IFR to MVFR along the coast with total terrain obscurations in the coastal mountains should be expected. Wind shear will also develop along the coast this morning, especially in the KOTH area, and this is likely to persist through the TAF period due to strong winds just above the surface. Inland areas are likely to experience MVFR with pockets of IFR and increasing terrain obscurations as more showers move through.

The cold front will then move across the coastal waters and onto the coast this afternoon with upslope precipitation under a southwest flow. This evening and overnight expect the front to slowly move inland, but fragment from the terrain as it does so. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected along and near the coast and wind shear is expected to become more widespread, to KRBG and KLMT. ~BTL

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Monday, 27 Jan 2020 . The active weather pattern will generally continue across the coastal waters through next weekend resulting in seas remaining steep to very steep into at least Friday.

Winds will increase to gale force across much of the area this evening, causing seas to become very steep through early Tuesday morning. Combined seas are likely to peak at 14 to 17 feet late tonight into early Tuesday morning with peak swell from 280 degrees at 14 feet with a dominant period of 14 seconds.

The next frontal system will move through Wednesday with advisory level winds likely. Westerly swell bears some watching Wednesday into Thursday. Models have continued to back down on the swell height, which now only peaks at around 14 feet at 15 seconds, but resulting bar conditions may still become hazardous during this time.

Mild temperatures and a break in the weather are expected Friday into Saturday as the active weather briefly shifts northward. This warm break is expected to be short lived because a well defined frontal system is then likely to move in from the northwest Saturday night into Monday. This will result in a wind shift to gusty northerlies and a return to cooler, wet weather. -BPN/BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ027-028.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 7 mi47 min 51°F1019.4 hPa
SNTO3 9 mi53 min S 8.9 54°F 1020 hPa53°F
46128 18 mi143 min 49°F 51°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 32 mi53 min 52°F14 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi53 min SSE 30 G 35 52°F 52°F1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR4 mi27 minSSE 15 G 2010.00 miLight Rain54°F52°F93%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12S8SE5S5------------------SE5--SE8SE8SE8SE12
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1 day agoSE3SE4SE5SE5SE10------------------S6S6S6SE6S8S15
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2 days agoS3S3CalmCalmCalm------------------CalmCalmS5SW3SW3CalmCalmW6NW6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:08 AM PST     7.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 AM PST     3.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:29 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM PST     7.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM PST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.46.676.864.83.83.13.13.74.767.17.77.66.75.33.51.80.60.10.41.53

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.