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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 203 Am Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..S wind 30 kt. Wind waves sw 9 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 9 to 11 ft at 13 seconds...building to 11 to 14 ft at 12 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 20 kt...veering to N 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Cape arago southward, S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 25 kt late in the evening, then...veering to N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds...subsiding to 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 5 seconds... Shifting to the N 2 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 3 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 11 seconds and nw 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds... Becoming nw 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and W 4 ft at 10 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of showers.
Tue..NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 3 seconds in the morning...becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds and nw 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..SE wind 5 kt...veering to S after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell nw 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..S wind 10 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming W 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 11 seconds and W 2 ft at 4 seconds...building to W 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..E wind 10 kt...veering to se. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 14 seconds.

PZZ300 203 Am Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Strong south winds ahead of and with an approaching cold front will continue through Sunday evening with high and steep seas. Winds and seas will continue to be highest north of cape blanco. A thermal through develops Monday with winds becoming northerly. Seas south of gold beach may become steep Monday afternoon into Monday night. Quieter conditions follow Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS66 KMFR 101225 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 425 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION...

AVIATION
10/12Z TAFs...Light rain and low level wind shear have developed near shore north of Cape Blanco, and this will continue through most of today.

Scattered light to moderate rain and lower ceilings have spread across the coast and into Douglas County this morning. A mix of VFR and MVFR is expected with areas of mountain obscuration.
Precipitation will be most intense from the coast to the Coast Range and over the northern portion of the southern Oregon Cascades, in the vicinity of Crater Lake.

Elsewhere, the light rain will gradually spread inland today into tonight with freezing levels around 9000 ft msl. Ceilings will lower but largely remain VFR. -DW/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 243 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2023/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning is showing lots of high cloudiness spreading across the area in advance of the next frontal system, which is still offshore. The high clouds have been thin enough to allow for some good radiational cooling in the valleys south of the Umpqua Divide (south of Glendale) and also east of the Cascades. Where low-level moisture is fairly deep, this has resulted in the formation of low clouds and fog. These are most prevalent in the Rogue/Illinois valleys as well as the Scott and lower Klamath River valleys.

The front offshore will continue to press southward and eastward today. Precipitation so far has been sparse in our forecast area, with only a few hundredths being reported in portions of Coos and NW Douglas counties. Amounts have been higher from Florence northward. This will change over the next 12 hours or so as precipitation increases in coverage through the remainder of the morning and through this afternoon. When all is said and done tonight or first thing Monday, many areas along the coast and inland across the Umpqua Basin to the Cascades will have 0.50-1.50 inches of rainfall. Precipitation will take some time to reach areas farther south and east and will likely fall apart completely before reaching portions of SE Siskiyou/southern Modoc counties tonight. Here in the Rogue Valley, we'll likely see a period of rain this afternoon/evening, but with much lighter amounts compared to the coast and other areas N&W. Right now, it looks like 0.10-0.25 of an inch for most in the Medford/Grants Pass/Ashland areas. East side areas north of the OR/CA border look to receive a trace to 0.10 of an inch with as much as 0.25 of an inch in the mountains and from Chemult north. It should be noted that areas along Highway 97 this morning from around Chiloquin northward have a slight chance of freezing rain. Right now, temp/dew point spreads are large enough such that most precipitation over there is evaporating before reaching the ground. It will be a race though this morning with temperatures rising to near or above freezing as the air mass moistens and precipitation moves in. Snow levels are pretty high, generally above 4500 feet where precipitation could move in as early as this morning. Impacts are unlikely, but those traveling in that region this morning should be aware of the risk. By afternoon, temperatures should rise sufficiently above freezing to end the threat.

As mentioned earlier, the front will push onshore tonight, but fall apart as it moves inland. Showers could linger into Monday in some areas, but precipitation chances should gradually dwindle through the day. High pressure will build in Monday night through Wednesday morning resulting in mainly dry weather, but also areas of low nighttime/morning low clouds/fog, especially in areas that receive rainfall today/tonight. We'll probably eke out a dry day in most areas Wednesday as the next front approaches the coast.
This front will also meet its demise as it moves onshore late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Most areas won't see any precip from this front, but there's a decent chance of rain (50-70%) at the coast. Models are showing the front lifting back to the north as a warm front Thursday night with the ridge rebuilding over the area late in the week.

Ensembles have been showing a closed low developing off the California coast next weekend. Some members bring this low toward the coast next weekend, but others maintain the upper ridge keeping the low offshore longer and resulting in a dry weekend.
Since it's still well out there, we've gone with the NBM in the extended, which brings slight rain chances (25% or less) back to the coast as early as Saturday, with a better probability of rain on Sunday (40-50% chance). The feeling is, however, that in these scenarios, a later arrival of precip is the better bet.

-Spilde

MARINE
Updated 200 AM Sunday December 10, 2023
Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue over the coastal waters through the morning. The strongest winds will occur north of Port Orford.

The strong winds combined with a large westerly swell will create hazardous conditions to small craft for all waters through this evening.

A cold front will pass through the waters today into the evening with very slowly improving conditions while winds and high and steep seas remain highest in the northern portion of the waters. Moderate seas are likely by late tonight.

A weak thermal through develops along the coast early Monday with winds becoming northerly. Swell heights will diminish while sea conditions south of Gold Beach may barely cross the threshold into becoming steep Monday into Monday night.

Noticeable improvement is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast uncertainty increases from Wednesday onward, but a building long period west-northwest swell at 13 to 15 seconds is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
-DW/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Coos Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Charleston
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Sun -- 03:23 AM PST     3.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM PST     8.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 PM PST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:13 PM PST     6.15 feet High Tide
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Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

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