Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:09 PM   Moonset 4:14 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 834 Pm Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - NW wind 5 kt - .backing to S after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell sw 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds and W 1 to 2 ft at 12 seconds. Sat - S wind 10 to 20 kt - .veering to W 10 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 1 to 2 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.Sat night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt - .veering to N early in the morning. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 5 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of rain. Sun - NE wind 5 to 10 kt - .becoming N 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds - .building to W 8 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. Sun night - N wind 15 to 25 kt - .veering to ne 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds - .becoming W 5 ft at 11 seconds after midnight. Mon - NE wind 10 to 20 kt - .backing to N 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 11 seconds. Mon night - N wind 15 to 25 kt - .easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 11 seconds. Tue - N wind 10 kt - .backing to nw. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds - . Subsiding to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Wed - N wind 10 kt - .backing to nw. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds - .shifting to the W 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell W 4 ft at 9 seconds - . Building to W 6 ft at 10 seconds.

PZZ300 834 Pm Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Light winds and seas continue through tonight. A weak front will result in increasing south winds early Saturday morning, then winds will shift to west late in the day. High pressure offshore and a thermal trough near shore will result in gusty northerly winds Sunday into Monday with gales possible and the strongest winds and steepest seas south of cape blanco.

FXUS66 KMFR 200523 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1022 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

DISCUSSION
The forecast is on track for the weekend. A weak front will bring cooler temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday, with moderate chances (40-80%) for light showers over the Oregon coast and Douglas County during the day Saturday. Next week will start off warm before cool temperatures and precipitation return midweek. -TAD



AVIATION
20/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions under clear skies and with light winds continue overnight and into Saturday morning. On Saturday afternoon, a weak front will bring light showers along the Oregon coast and gusty winds over higher elevations, especially east of the Cascades. Periods of MVFR ceilings and impaired visibilities under showers are possible, especially along the Oregon coast. VFR levels will continue in other areas. -TAD



MARINE
Updated 830 PM Friday, April 19, 2024...Light winds and seas will continue through tonight. A weak cold front will bring increasing south winds early Saturday morning, but they are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels. The front will move inland by the afternoon with winds becoming westerly behind it.

On Sunday, high pressure will be offshore and a thermal trough will set up along the south coast. North winds increase across the waters early Sunday with moderate to strong winds possibly reaching gale force south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Monday. These gusty winds will result in steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the waters.

Conditions are likely to improve Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of the next cold front on Wednesday night into Thursday. -DW



PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 441 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

Updated AVIATION Discussion

DISCUSSION
This afternoon through Monday morning
High pressure is in control today, leading to sunny skies and dry conditions.
Afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side again today, running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for late April and more on par with early June.

Dry conditions will continue into Saturday and through the day Saturday for most of the area. A weak front will push into the region Saturday and flatten the ridge Saturday night into Sunday.
This front will run into a pretty dry air mass, so not much precipitation is expected for the area. The best chances for accumulating precipitation will be along the coast (40%-70%), in the Umpqua Basin (20%-30%) and along the Cascades from Crater Lake northward (20%-40%). Even the areas that do receive precipitation are only expected to measure around 0.10"-0.20" west of the Coast Range with only a few hundreths expected elsewhere. The remainder of the area will likely remain dry with some increased cloud cover and gusty winds across the region. Widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades with gusts of 15 to 25 mph expected for areas west of the Cascades.

The front shifts east of the area Saturday night with high pressure building in on Sunday/Monday. Frost/freezing conditions are possible during this period of dry weather during the late nights/early mornings in the valleys west of the Cascades. It will only be nominally cooler on Sunday, with high temperatures closer to normal across NW sections, but remaining at least a few degrees above normal elsewhere. Monday will warm up substantially (up 5-10 F over Sunday). Another thermal trough will strengthen in NorCal resulting in another round of N-NE winds late Sunday through Monday. This should even bring the milder weather to portions of the SW coast (including Brookings). The remainder of the work week looks more active as we head into the extended period. /BR-y

Extended Discussion (Monday through Friday)...Dry weather will continue through Monday with upper ridging building into the area albeit not a strong upper ridge that will quickly push east as an upper trough approaches from the west. Tuesday, the upper trough axis remains west of the forecast area, but there's enough evidence to suggest increasing instability along with a weak trigger Tuesday afternoon and early evening and could be enough to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms along the Cascades, portions of the Eastside and western Siskiyou County Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

We'll catch a break Tuesday night with weak upper troughing over our area, but energy is pretty weak so were not expecting precipitation.

Wednesday upper troughing remains and instability will once again increase during the day. The operational ECMWF and GFS differ with respect to the strength of the upper trough. The upper trough is more pronounced and shows more convective feedback in terms of QPF.
However the individual ensemble members paint a different picture with the majority showing a weaker solution. The GFS shows a weaker upper trough and thus less in the way of QPF. Therefore the forecast will lean towards the weaker ECMWF ensembles and operational GFS solution with showers mainly along and east of the Cascades and northern Coos and northwest Douglas County.

Upper troughiness remains over our area the rest of next week which will result in cooler temperatures and a higher chance for showers over a good portion of the forecast area. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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Coos Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

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Sat -- 05:08 AM PDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:15 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM PDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 PM PDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:28 PM PDT     6.92 feet High Tide
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Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

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