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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 844 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
.gale warning in effect through Thursday evening - .
Tonight - N wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves N 8 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Tue - N wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves N 8 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Tue night - N wind 30 kt - .easing to 20 to 25 kt early in the morning. Wind waves N 10 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Wed - N wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves N 9 ft at 8 seconds. SWell nw 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Wed night - N wind 15 to 25 kt - .easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 8 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 3 ft at 11 seconds. Thu - N wind 10 to 20 kt - .rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 7 ft at 7 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - N wind 20 to 25 kt - .easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 7 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 3 ft at 9 seconds and nw 1 to 2 ft at 13 seconds. Fri - N wind 20 kt - .rising to 25 kt in the evening, then - . Easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 7 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 11 seconds. Sat - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 7 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds - .subsiding to W 2 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ300 844 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough will continue to produce gusty northerly winds and hazardous seas across all of the southern oregon coastal waters through the rest of the week. Gales and very steep seas are forecast for all areas south of cape arago, with small craft advisory conditions to the north. These hazards are likely to be extended through the week and possibly into the weekend.

FXUS66 KMFR 132026 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 126 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

SHORT TERM

Overview:

Outside of a very slim chance (<10%) for showers/thunderstorms today, we are looking at a relatively quiet forecast today through tomorrow night. Warm and dry weather is expected for nearly the entire area outside of the small chance for showers in Siskiyou County this afternoon. In the unlikely event a thunderstorm develops, lightning would be the main threat.

Further Details:

We can see cumulus forming via visible satellite over northern California and parts of Lake County. At 500mb, we do have a disturbance passing with the vorticity field essentially making its way east of the area. Being on the back side of this disturbance now, we likely wont see much--if any--shower activity today. That really is the only potential weather impact in the short term.
Otherwise, it will be warm again today, but slightly cooler than yesterday, with breezy afternoon wind speeds. When we say breezy, this is within a range of 15 to 25 mph sustained. This is really only for our "typical" breezy spots as a lot of the area will likely be under 15 mph today and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today. Inland, there will be no shortage of sunshine both today and tomorrow.

-Guerrero

LONG TERM
Wednesday May 15th - Monday May 20th...The axis of the upper-level ridge will remain offshore Wednesday, with continued northerly flow aloft. This is a very similar pattern to the one we saw earlier in this week, one which brings higher than average temperatures to the area (more typical of June than May), dry weather, and sunny skies.

Northeasterly flow at lower levels along the south OR coast will set off the Chetco Effect, where air is funneled down the Chetco River Valley and warms as its forced down towards sea level, which will result in warm temperatures for Brookings and the surrounding southern Curry County coast. Highs look to be in the high 70s to mid 80s through Thursday, with the warmest day on Wednesday before thermal trough/heat low pressure helping produce these warm temperatures starts to move inland. Farther north, more of a due northerly flow will continue night and morning stratus for the beaches from Cape Blanco northward.

The thermal trough along the south OR/northern CA coast will begin moving inland Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures for most inland areas that day while coastal areas begin cooling off behind it.

Model differences increase Friday into the weekend, but generally agree that the ridge will flatten and move east as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest Friday into Saturday. While differences in the strength of the trough persist, very likely this initial wave is too weak and too far to the north to have too much of an impact on the local region, especially in terms of precipitation, with more or less no chances for precip through the region. This will result in temperatures cooling off for the region, though they will remain warmer than average for this time of year.

Saturday into Sunday, a large closed low will move west towards south-central CA as the trough in the PNW moves east out of the region. However, dry weather will very likely (90%+ chance) continue locally until another, stronger trough approaches from the NW late Sunday into Monday. We're generally sandwiched between these two lows here in south OR/NorCal, a pattern than typically results in us missing out on precipitation as there's a lack of energy locally to get anything off the ground. That said, 15-20% of models in the National Blend of Models indicate measureable precipitation in northern Douglas and Klamath counties and along the Cascade crest late Monday.

-CSP

.AVIATION (13/18Z TAFs)...

IFR and MVFR ceilings remain along the Oregon coast under persisting marine stratus. These clouds will remain in place through most of the TAF period, with the exception of a few hours of VFR this afternoon before marine stratus returns this evening.
Inland areas will remain at VFR levels under clear skies through the TAF period, with widespread breezy afternoon winds.

-BPN

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Monday, May 13, 2024...A thermal trough will continue to produce gusty northerly winds and hazardous seas across all of the southern Oregon coastal waters through the rest of the week. Gales and very steep seas are forecast for all areas south of Cape Arago, with Small Craft Advisory conditions to the north. These hazards are likely to be extended through the week and possibly into the weekend.

-BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

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Coos Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Charleston
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Mon -- 01:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:00 AM PDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:15 AM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM PDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:25 PM PDT     3.64 feet Low Tide
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Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

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