Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Washington, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:55PM Sunday January 24, 2021 3:44 AM CST (09:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 4:51AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 306 Am Cst Sun Jan 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm cst this afternoon...
Early this morning..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Snow and drizzle. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..South wind 15 to 20 knots veering southwest 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then veering west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Snow in the morning, then snow likely and areas of drizzle late in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering north after midnight becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Monday night..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming northeast 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Chance of snow and rain. Waves 6 to 8 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:202101242200;;402898 FZUS53 KMKX 240906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-242200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Washington, WI
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location: 43.38, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 240232 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 832 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 832 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

No major changes to forecast expectations for this evening/overnight. A leading band of snow along the initial warm advection push is moving northeast into the area at this time. Light snow is expected with this, especially over the western half of the forecast area, but amounts will be limited by the very dry low levels, with much of the snow sublimating before making it to the surface. There will likely be a break behind this band, before a more organized and widespread area of snow moves in after midnight. A deep dendritic growth layer will result in dry, fluffy snow, with snow to liquid ratios between 15 and 20:1.

Snow will end from west to east early to mid morning tomorrow. Total amounts are still expected to end up in the 2-5 inch range, with the lower amounts across the south and southeast, and the higher amounts across the north/northwest.

Boxell

SHORT TERM. (Issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

Tonight and Sunday night:

The clear skies this afternoon will begin to give way to overcast skies as middle to high clouds move in this afternoon. The main area of snow should move into southwestern Wisconsin by early this evening. The snow will be driven by steady warm air advection and frontogenesis. The cold temperatures, ample upward vertical motion and slightly increasing winds should give southern Wisconsin powdery snow. The highest snowfall rates are expected to be move through the region during the overnight hours tonight.

The snow should then gradually end from west to east by late Sunday morning. Some lake enhancement may occur with the south Southeast flow over the mild lake waters, which could cause snow showers to linger into the afternoon hours for the Sheboygan area. Snowfall amounts are similar to the previous forecast with amounts near the 75th percentile range per Model Certainty, NBM and WPC. Generally expect 2 to 4 inches for areas north of I-94 and lower amounts for areas to the south. Lake enhancement could increase totals slightly across Sheboygan county, which gives them a range of 2 to 5 inches. Kept the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast, as the amounts and expected impacts did not change much.

Patterson

LONG TERM. (Issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

Monday through Tuesday Night:

Medium range guidance continues to show longwave troughing over the western CONUS, with a lead shortwave ejecting out over the southern and central Plains on Monday. Cyclogenesis is then expected to occur as this shortwave lifts northeast into KS/MO/IA/NE. The combination of the system deepening upstream of the area and drier air in place over southern Wisconsin has led to a delay in PoPs on Monday. Backed off and kept much of southern Wisconsin dry through a good portion of the day. Late Monday evening through Tuesday are when things get a bit more complicated with the forecast, with the system gradually tracking east-northeast.

As the surface low continues to lift east-northeast, models have a bit trended further north with the surface low and resulting lingering deformation snow. This includes the majority of the deterministic runs, with the 12Z ECMWF being by far the most bullish with the shift to the north. The ensemble means for accumulating snow have also begun to nose north as well. Thus, confidence is a bit higher that we should see at least light to possibly moderate snow move into southern, and especially southeast Wisconsin Monday evening/night. However, given the large ensemble spreads and close proximity to drier air just to our north, it must be noted that there is still uncertainty in how much snow we will end up seeing.

Even a slight shift in the track of the surface low will have a drastic impact on snowfall totals across the area. To add to the uncertainty in the exact storm track, the system will be occluded and weakening as it lifts over Illinois/Indiana. While winds over Lake Michigan won't be ideal given the fetch and stronger speeds, there may still be an opportunity for some lake-enhancement or added convergence to boost totals in southeast Wisconsin compared to elsewhere.

Another concern are the winds during this time period. While the system will be weakening, southern Wisconsin will be on the northern edge of the stronger pressure gradient. Models are fairly consistent with gusty northeast winds accompany the system as it moves through the region. NAEFS/GEFS data also show an anomalously strong northeast jet tracking across southern Wisconsin Monday Night/Tuesday, so this does boost confidence in the gustier wind scenario. Will need to monitor any impacts from the winds, including the potential for any lakeshore flooding/erosion impacts and blowing snow concerns.

Wednesday through the end of the week:

Shortwave energy at the base of longwave troughing lifts northeast and rides the lingering baroclinic zone across the central Plains towards the Midwest. This may result in another round of snow on Wednesday. As colder air filters down across the western Great Lakes under north-northeast flow, we could also be dealing with some lake- effect/enhanced snow showers as well. Did add PoPs into the mix, mostly slight chances for light snow and lake-effect snow along the lakeshore from Sheboygan gradually working south towards Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha.

Wednesday night into Thursday, high pressure moves east across the region bringing a break from the active winter weather. Upper-level ridging then builds across the central CONUS through the end of the week into early next week as return flow ushers in warm up. Expect breezy conditions as well, given the increased pressure gradient across the region.

Anderson

AVIATION. (Issued 832 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

Snow is expected to impact the terminals this evening through tonight, before ending Sudnay morning. MVFR ceilings and IFR visibility are likely tonight as snow moves through this area. This will be a dry, fluffy snow.

Once snow ends Sunday morning, MVFR to IFR stratus will likely stick around into the afternoon, before slowly improving later in the day. Winds will be rfrom the south tonight, before switching to westerly and northwesterly on Sunday.

Boxell

MARINE. (Issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

MARINE.

Winds become south tonight, increasing to 20-30 knots by Sunday morning ahead of a weak front moving through the western Great Lakes. As the front moves through Sunday evening, winds weaken and become westerly. By Monday morning, west winds veer northeast as high pressure moves into the Canadian Prairies, while a stronger surface low develops over the central Plains.

These northeast winds are expected to increase as the surface low lifts northeast across Illinois/Indiana Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models remain in good agreement with a jet of stronger winds on the northeast side of the surface low. Thus, gales continue to look possible over the southern half of Lake Michigan late Monday into Tuesday. Small craft conditions appear likely, as waves build to 8-10 feet near the shoreline. It is possible that gales could also impact the shoreline as well.

Anderson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ062-WIZ063 until 9 AM Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ051-WIZ059-WIZ060 . midnight Sunday to noon Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ052 . midnight Sunday to 3 PM Sunday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 . midnight Sunday to 2 PM Sunday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 1 mi65 min S 11 G 15 30°F 1022.7 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 26 mi55 min S 8.9 G 11 28°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 28°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI14 mi50 minSE 41.75 miLight Snow27°F25°F93%1020.3 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI20 mi50 minSSE 72.00 miLight Snow28°F21°F74%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W6W9W6SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3E3CalmSE3SE4
1 day agoNW8W7NW9W11
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W9W6W6W6W6NW5W3CalmCalmNW3CalmW4
2 days agoW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.