Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Washington, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240232 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 832 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 832 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

No major changes to forecast expectations for this evening/overnight. A leading band of snow along the initial warm advection push is moving northeast into the area at this time. Light snow is expected with this, especially over the western half of the forecast area, but amounts will be limited by the very dry low levels, with much of the snow sublimating before making it to the surface. There will likely be a break behind this band, before a more organized and widespread area of snow moves in after midnight. A deep dendritic growth layer will result in dry, fluffy snow, with snow to liquid ratios between 15 and 20:1.

Snow will end from west to east early to mid morning tomorrow. Total amounts are still expected to end up in the 2-5 inch range, with the lower amounts across the south and southeast, and the higher amounts across the north/northwest.

Boxell

SHORT TERM. (Issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

Tonight and Sunday night:

The clear skies this afternoon will begin to give way to overcast skies as middle to high clouds move in this afternoon. The main area of snow should move into southwestern Wisconsin by early this evening. The snow will be driven by steady warm air advection and frontogenesis. The cold temperatures, ample upward vertical motion and slightly increasing winds should give southern Wisconsin powdery snow. The highest snowfall rates are expected to be move through the region during the overnight hours tonight.

The snow should then gradually end from west to east by late Sunday morning. Some lake enhancement may occur with the south Southeast flow over the mild lake waters, which could cause snow showers to linger into the afternoon hours for the Sheboygan area. Snowfall amounts are similar to the previous forecast with amounts near the 75th percentile range per Model Certainty, NBM and WPC. Generally expect 2 to 4 inches for areas north of I-94 and lower amounts for areas to the south. Lake enhancement could increase totals slightly across Sheboygan county, which gives them a range of 2 to 5 inches. Kept the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast, as the amounts and expected impacts did not change much.

Patterson

LONG TERM. (Issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

Monday through Tuesday Night:

Medium range guidance continues to show longwave troughing over the western CONUS, with a lead shortwave ejecting out over the southern and central Plains on Monday. Cyclogenesis is then expected to occur as this shortwave lifts northeast into KS/MO/IA/NE. The combination of the system deepening upstream of the area and drier air in place over southern Wisconsin has led to a delay in PoPs on Monday. Backed off and kept much of southern Wisconsin dry through a good portion of the day. Late Monday evening through Tuesday are when things get a bit more complicated with the forecast, with the system gradually tracking east-northeast.

As the surface low continues to lift east-northeast, models have a bit trended further north with the surface low and resulting lingering deformation snow. This includes the majority of the deterministic runs, with the 12Z ECMWF being by far the most bullish with the shift to the north. The ensemble means for accumulating snow have also begun to nose north as well. Thus, confidence is a bit higher that we should see at least light to possibly moderate snow move into southern, and especially southeast Wisconsin Monday evening/night. However, given the large ensemble spreads and close proximity to drier air just to our north, it must be noted that there is still uncertainty in how much snow we will end up seeing.

Even a slight shift in the track of the surface low will have a drastic impact on snowfall totals across the area. To add to the uncertainty in the exact storm track, the system will be occluded and weakening as it lifts over Illinois/Indiana. While winds over Lake Michigan won't be ideal given the fetch and stronger speeds, there may still be an opportunity for some lake-enhancement or added convergence to boost totals in southeast Wisconsin compared to elsewhere.

Another concern are the winds during this time period. While the system will be weakening, southern Wisconsin will be on the northern edge of the stronger pressure gradient. Models are fairly consistent with gusty northeast winds accompany the system as it moves through the region. NAEFS/GEFS data also show an anomalously strong northeast jet tracking across southern Wisconsin Monday Night/Tuesday, so this does boost confidence in the gustier wind scenario. Will need to monitor any impacts from the winds, including the potential for any lakeshore flooding/erosion impacts and blowing snow concerns.

Wednesday through the end of the week:

Shortwave energy at the base of longwave troughing lifts northeast and rides the lingering baroclinic zone across the central Plains towards the Midwest. This may result in another round of snow on Wednesday. As colder air filters down across the western Great Lakes under north-northeast flow, we could also be dealing with some lake- effect/enhanced snow showers as well. Did add PoPs into the mix, mostly slight chances for light snow and lake-effect snow along the lakeshore from Sheboygan gradually working south towards Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha.

Wednesday night into Thursday, high pressure moves east across the region bringing a break from the active winter weather. Upper-level ridging then builds across the central CONUS through the end of the week into early next week as return flow ushers in warm up. Expect breezy conditions as well, given the increased pressure gradient across the region.

Anderson

AVIATION. (Issued 832 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

Snow is expected to impact the terminals this evening through tonight, before ending Sudnay morning. MVFR ceilings and IFR visibility are likely tonight as snow moves through this area. This will be a dry, fluffy snow.

Once snow ends Sunday morning, MVFR to IFR stratus will likely stick around into the afternoon, before slowly improving later in the day. Winds will be rfrom the south tonight, before switching to westerly and northwesterly on Sunday.

Boxell

MARINE. (Issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021)

MARINE.

Winds become south tonight, increasing to 20-30 knots by Sunday morning ahead of a weak front moving through the western Great Lakes. As the front moves through Sunday evening, winds weaken and become westerly. By Monday morning, west winds veer northeast as high pressure moves into the Canadian Prairies, while a stronger surface low develops over the central Plains.

These northeast winds are expected to increase as the surface low lifts northeast across Illinois/Indiana Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models remain in good agreement with a jet of stronger winds on the northeast side of the surface low. Thus, gales continue to look possible over the southern half of Lake Michigan late Monday into Tuesday. Small craft conditions appear likely, as waves build to 8-10 feet near the shoreline. It is possible that gales could also impact the shoreline as well.

Anderson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ062-WIZ063 until 9 AM Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ051-WIZ059-WIZ060 . midnight Sunday to noon Sunday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ052 . midnight Sunday to 3 PM Sunday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 . midnight Sunday to 2 PM Sunday.



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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	1 mi	65 min	S 11 G 15	30°F			1022.7 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	26 mi	55 min	S 8.9 G 11	28°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	27 mi	45 min	SSW 8.9 G 9.9	28°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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W3 G7

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W2 G5

W3 G6

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W7 G10

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W2 G5

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NW14 G18

N9 G15

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NW12 G18

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W2 G5

NW1 G4

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NW3 G7

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NW4 G9

W3 G6

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2 days ago

W17 G26

W16 G23

W12 G18

W15 G21

W16 G24

W17 G25

W18 G30

W15 G23

NW18 G25

NW13 G23

W14 G22

W9 G18

W12 G17

W16 G21

N12 G21

NW14 G22

NW11 G17

NW9 G14

NW12 G19

NW12 G19

NW11 G20

NW12 G18

NW12 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI	14 mi	50 min	SE 4	1.75 mi	Light Snow	27°F	25°F	93%	1020.3 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	20 mi	50 min	SSE 7	2.00 mi	Light Snow	28°F	21°F	74%	1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)

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W5

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NW8

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W11 G15

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W11 G17

W10 G18

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W13 G18

W18 G23

W19 G25

W22 G28

W19 G29

W13 G23

W16 G23

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W10 G15

W12 G21

W15 G20

W21 G29

NW20 G26

NW13 G17

NW11

NW11 G20

NW11 G16

NW11 G15

NW8

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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