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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Washington, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 121125 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 525 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE.

The forecast looks on track for today. No changes are needed at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS).

Light southeast winds early this morning will become south to southwest and become gusty by later this morning into this afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected for a time this morning into early this afternoon at the terminals, with southwest winds to 45 knots at 2000 feet.

A period of light snow should move across areas north of Madison and Milwaukee later this morning into middle to late afternoon. Some rain may mix in this afternoon. At and south of the terminals, any rain/snow mix should change to mainly drizzle by early this afternoon. 1 to 2 inch snow accumulations should occur well north of Madison and Milwaukee, with the main terminals seeing little to no snow accumulations.

There is the chance for drizzle to become light freezing drizzle this evening and overnight, as temperatures slowly fall below freezing. This may cause some slick spots on runways. Some fog may occur as well, as winds weaken. Moderate confidence in the freezing drizzle at this time, but something to watch for.

Ceilings should drop to MVFR/IFR with the light snow/mix later this morning into this afternoon. Visibility values should be IFR north of the terminals, with VFR/MVFR to the south. Look for IFR/MVFR ceilings to linger tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 410 AM CST THU DEC 12 2019)

SHORT TERM .

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Forecast Confidence . Medium.

Still expecting an area of light snow to spread east across the northern half of the area later this morning into this afternoon. This is being driven by warm air advection/low level jet nose interaction this morning, with some low level frontogenesis and differential CVA from nearby passing 500 mb vorticity maximum this afternoon. The best upward vertical motion looks to be in northern parts of the area, and to the north of there.

The NAM looks too far north with its surface low track today, so sided with the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian track, which is from southwest through east central Wisconsin. Enough warm air with gusty south/southwest winds should push north into the area by this afternoon to bring a rain/snow mix in parts of the north half of the area. The south should see any light snow or rain/snow mix change to mainly light drizzle by the afternoon, with milder temperature profiles and weaker upward vertical motion.

Kept snow amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range in the far north and northwest parts of the area, with amounts under an inch to the south of there. This was between the 25th and 50th percentiles per Model Certainty, with the 75th percentile only a few tenths of an inch higher. This seemed reasonable for now, given the mixy nature of the precipitation. The far south and southeast should not see much if any snowfall. The tail end of this activity may affect the late afternoon/evening commute.

The main area of precipitation should move off to the east later this afternoon, though drizzle/light freezing drizzle may linger into this evening and perhaps overnight. This is due to a weak surface trough moving east through the area, with a decent amount of moisture trapped beneath the low level inversion. Lighter winds may also allow for some fog to develop.

There is the possibility of some light glazing to occur on roads that are untreated or below freezing later this afternoon and tonight. Also, the snow may cause some impacts mainly this afternoon and early evening. For now, held off on a Winter Weather Advisory for northern parts of the area. The freezing drizzle/glazing potential will need to be monitored for later today into tonight.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence . Medium.

Lingering low level moisture and weak winds will likely result in clouds persisting on Friday. Deeper moisture will return later Friday into Friday night ahead of the next in a series of mid-level short wave trofs moving across the upper midwest. This may bring a period of light rain or snow to the area Friday evening. Mid-levels dry out overnight while low level trof continues to move slowly across the area. So wl continue mention of freezing drizzle Friday night. Colder air and deeper moisture returns on Saturday ahead of the next weak wave which may bring a period of light snow back to the area. Any snowfall would remain light, less than an inch.

LONG TERM .

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence . low to Medium.

Will continue small pops across mainly the eastern CWA Saturday night as low pressure trof rotates around strong low pressure moving through the northeast CONUS into eastern Canada. Then a period of dry and colder weather returns for Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure moves through the region. The extended focus remains in developing low pressure in the southern Plains Sunday night into Monday along a tight low level thermal gradient. 00Z.12 deterministic GFS remains extended guidance outlier with less split flow across the Midwest, and taking the southern Plains system on a more northeast track toward the central Great Lakes later Monday and Monday night. This latest track takes the surface low across the OH valley with a large precipitation shield associated with the deepening mid-level system extended well northwest into southern WI. The earlier GFS ensemble guidance has the largest area of uncertainty with this system cross northern IL/southern WI Mon aftn/eve. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF and GEM show a stronger split flow across the region with the more zonal, faster flow across the upper midwest winning out, and keeping this system to the south and east of the area. WPC blended fields leaning toward drier solution for our area. Several of the ECMWF ensemble members do show a farther north track. With the possibility of the split flow becoming more in phase as long-wave troffing develops in the central CONUS, can not rule out the possibility for a wetter GFS solution actually verifying. For now wl keep small chances going during the Monday/Monday night period with dry conditions returning into mid- week.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATE) .

Light southeast winds early this morning will become south to southwest and become gusty by later this morning into this afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected for a time this morning at Madison and possibly the eastern terminals, with southwest winds of 40 to 45 knots at 2000 feet.

A period of light snow should move across areas north of Madison and Milwaukee later this morning into middle to late afternoon. Some rain may mix in this afternoon. At and south of the terminals, any rain/snow mix should change to mainly drizzle by early this afternoon. 1 to 2 inch snow accumulations should occur well north of Madison and Milwaukee, with the main terminals seeing little to no snow accumulations.

There is the chance for drizzle to become light freezing drizzle this evening and overnight, as temperatures slowly fall below freezing. This may cause some slick spots on runways. Some fog may occur as well, as winds weaken. Moderate confidence in the freezing drizzle at this time, but something to watch for.

Ceilings should drop to MVFR/IFR with the light snow/mix later this morning into this afternoon. Visibility values should be IFR north of the terminals, with VFR/MVFR to the south. Look for IFR/MVFR ceilings to linger tonight.

MARINE .

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect today until middle evening for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. The Gale Warning remains in effect for all but the far northern portions of the open waters of Lake Michigan from middle morning until middle evening.

Gusty southeast to south winds today will become southwest tonight. Frequent gusts to 30 knots are expected over the nearshore waters, with gusts to 40 knots over all but the far northern open waters. Waves are expected to build during this period, before gradually subsiding later tonight into Friday.

Lighter winds are expected later tonight into Friday. Gusty northwest winds are expected Saturday into Sunday, with frequent gusts to 30 knots possible Saturday night into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for this period.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ080-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870- 872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.



Update . Wood Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wood Friday THROUGH Wednesday . mbK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	1 mi	32 min	SSE 22 G 24	34°F			1026.1 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	26 mi	32 min	SSE 17 G 21	32°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	27 mi	72 min	SSE 2.9 G 2.9	25°F			1027.9 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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Last 24hr

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI	14 mi	17 min	SE 8	7.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	26°F	93%	1023.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	20 mi	27 min	SSE 9 G 14	7.00 mi	Overcast with Haze	30°F	24°F	80%	1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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