Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Washington, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 080442 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

UPDATE. The forecast is on track for tnt-Wed. Another hot day is expected with heat index values possibly reaching 100F over south central WI.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). At least light fog will form tnt in some areas due to the rain but cannot rule out isolated dense fog. Much lower chances of showers and storms for Wed with sct cumulus once again

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 1024 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020)

UPDATE . The light rain is coming to an end over far se WI. Clearing skies will follow with some further cooling expected. With already low dewpoint depressions expect patchy fog to form.

For Wed, temps aloft will be warmer with ridging aloft, but a vorticity maximum will be across nrn IL. Overall, forecasting slight chances for showers and tstorms in the afternoon. The lake breeze boundary and any remnant outflow boundaries that may move nwd from IL would be the focus.

MARINE . Light sly flow will continue over Lake MI tnt-Thu, followed by a cold front that will shift the winds to light to modest nwly flow for late Thu nt-Fri AM.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 735 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020)

UPDATE . Gust front over far se WI has observed winds in the 40 mph range, but fairly gusty winds in the heavy rain area as well. A stratiform area of rain will follow for a couple hours. Added patchy fog to the forecast given the rainfall and low dewpoint depressions.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . The showers and tstorms and any MVFR and IFR vsbys and cigs will end from nw to se across srn WI this evening. At least light fog will form tnt in some areas due to the rain but cannot rule out isolated dense fog. Much lower chances of showers and storms for Wed with sct cumulus once again.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 341 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020)

SHORT TERM .

This Evening Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Lingering showers and storms this evening but we will become more quiet into the overnight period as the weak front pulls to our north. This will bring us light southerly winds through Wednesday. Currently Wednesday looks to be quite warm with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices approaching 100 across much of the CWA. Thus we have issued a Heat Advisory for much of the western parts of our CWA, which will have the best chances for heat indices around 100. In addition, we will have some chances for a few weak storms/showers across the area, perhaps driven by the lake breeze. Much of the area may remain dry, especially further west which is why the greatest concern for Heat Advisory conditions remains further west. However, we cannot rule out close to Heat Advisory conditions for the remainder of the CWA.

LONG TERM .

Thursday through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Thursday will become more active given a cold front from the system to the north pushing through with plenty of upper level support from a strong shortwave with decent low to midlevel moisture. This will bring potential for thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin with some potential for some stronger storms, particularly for the western parts of the CWA. Thursday will be our best chance for strong to severe storms this week with plenty of instability and perhaps some weak deep-layer shear.

After the front pulls through a region higher pressure will fill in behind for Friday. Models are suggesting we could see a system Saturday into Sunday impact the area but there is quite a bit of uncertainty from the models for track and timing but it looks likely to move from northwest to southeast in association with a fairly strong upper level shortwave. Following this system uncertainty increases, though we should expect the ridge to start to build back in by the beginning of next week. This would likely keep the region mostly dry outside of mostly weak pop-up/air mass thunderstorms/showers. In, addition the return of the ridge will bring back the warm temperatures after a brief slightly cooler period over the weekend.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over the next several hours perhaps causing brief periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds. This may also cause brief periods of MVFR VSBYS. Otherwise, look for mostly VFR conditions over the next few hours with skies clearing out for the most part this evening. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Wednesday looks likely to remain mostly quiet with a few scattered showers/storms, especially closer to the lake.

MARINE .

Primarily light southerly winds continue this evening across the lake with scattered storms weakening as they push over the lake but some breezy conditions are possible right along the western shoreline from weakening storms. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Wednesday with weak high pressure over Michigan with primarily light southerly winds expected. Southerly winds Thursday will be a bit more breezy prior to the front pushing through and bringing back light northwest flow Friday into the weekend.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ046-047- 056-057-062-063-067-068.

LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine . ARK Wednesday Night through Tuesday . Wood

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	1 mi	41 min	NE 2.9 G 4.1	68°F			1014.9 hPa
45013	19 mi	51 min	WSW 5.8 G 7.8	71°F	72°F	1 ft	1014.1 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	26 mi	31 min	W 2.9 G 2.9	71°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	27 mi	21 min	Calm G 0	69°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI	14 mi	46 min	N 0	7.00 mi	Fair	64°F	64°F	100%	1014.2 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	20 mi	26 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	68°F	62°F	83%	1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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