Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Washington, WI
July 3, 2024 12:25 AM CDT (05:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:15 AM Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM Moonset 7:06 PM |
LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday - West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night - West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the evening, then veering west after midnight becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering north late in the morning, then veering southeast early in the afternoon becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 030223 AAA AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move across the area this evening, before exiting overnight. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are the main concerns in this activity.
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 AM CDT Wednesday across areas around and southwest of Madison.
- Dangerous swimming conditions continue until 1 AM CDT Wednesday at Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties.
- Elevated water levels continue on area rivers and streams through the end of the week. Flood Warnings remain in effect in several locations.
- Independence Day forecast trends for widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to push later overnight Thursday into Friday. However, there will still be a 20 to 40 percent chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms with a lightning risk through Thursday afternoon and evening.
UPDATE
Issued 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move east across the area late this evening, before exiting from west to east overnight, along and ahead of a cold front. Upper divergence from the right entrance region of a jet streak should move away from the area, so the current activity may gradually weaken as it continues east.
Still concern for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, with high precipitable water values over 2.00 inches and moist adiabatic temperature and moisture profiles. Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.50 inches per hour have been seen in earlier convection, though these rates may lower as upward vertical motion gradually weakens overnight.
For now, will maintain the Flood Watch for Madison and to the southwest, until all of the moderate rainfall moves out of that area. May see some rivers rise in response to this latest round of rainfall.
The high swim risk and Beach Hazards Statement continues for Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties until 1 AM CDT, with southeast winds bringing high waves and rip currents to that area.
Wood
SHORT TERM
Issued 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight and Wednesday:
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Afternoon surface observations depict a cold front extending from the MN Boundary Waters south into the Missouri Valley. Evident in GOES water vapor imagery, an upper shortwave is progressing eastward along the South Dakota-Nebraska border. Both of the aforementioned features are progged to track east toward the region this evening, triggering shower and thunderstorm development in the process. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are possible in this activity given an unseasonably moist air mass in place across the area, with a Flood Watch in effect across our southwestern counties between 3 PM and 1 AM. Convection will push east of the area during the predawn hours as the aforementioned cold front clears the area from west to east. Post-frontal high pressure will nudge into southern Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon, allowing for decreasing cloud cover and primarily dry conditions.
Rest Of This Afternoon & This Evening: Hazardous swimming conditions continue at all Lake Michigan beaches given a combination of high waves and dangerous currents. Already in progress to our west, shower and thunderstorms will continue to fill in as they move toward the area. Storms will be encountering an unseasonably moist air mass characterized by precipitable water values in the 1.75 to 2.25 inch range, which reside anywhere between 1.5 and 2 standard deviations above early July normals. Storms will thus be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates this afternoon/evening, and will pose some potential for flooding. Latest flash flood guidance from the North Central River Forecast Center depicts six hourly values between 1.5 and 2 inches across the region. 6 hour QPF progs from the 12Z HRRR, in addition to more recent runs from the HRRR, point toward these thresholds being met in localized pockets across southwestern Wisconsin and the Wisconsin River Valley. Have thus issued a Flood Watch for Sauk, Columbia, Iowa, Dane, Lafayette, and Green Counties between 3 PM and 1 AM. Stay aware for rising water in these locations, and remember to turn around, don't drown if encountering flooded roadways. While well secondary to the flooding potential, an isolated strong to severe storm can't be completely ruled out over far southwestern counties (particularly Green, Iowa, and Lafayette Cos) during the 4-8 PM timeframe. This potential will be heavily contingent upon the realization of surface-based instability. Said realization has been hinted in the 12Z HRRR, as well as more recent runs of the HRRR and NAM Nest. Damaging winds would be the primary concern in any strong/severe storms, though a brief tornado would be possible in any activity becoming favorably aligned with 40-45 kt, southwesterly shear vectors in the 0-3 km layer. Will continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
Wednesday: Skies will turn partly cloudy by late morning as the cold front pushes east of the area. Have maintained an entirely dry forecast, but did insert some 10% precip probs over far northern counties, where some mesoscale guidance hints at isolated shower and thundershower development during the afternoon hours.
LONG TERM
Issued 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Wednesday night through Tuesday:
This will be an active period with shortwave troughs arriving within wnwly flow aloft. For Independence Day, a 700 mb shortwave trough will track across nrn IL or far srn WI. Mid level warm, moist advection and PVA along with marginal CAPE will support PoPs of 20-40 percent for the afternoon and evening. The convection may only be elevated and will depend on the amount of clouds and sfc heating. Either way, scattered showers and isold storms are forecast.
A larger and slower moving shortwave trough will then approach from the ern Dakotas and MN late Thu nt. A surge of 850-700 mb warm, moist advection and increasing PVA within a PW airmass of 1.4-1.8 inches and marginal CAPE will result in widespread showers and sct storm development. A developing sfc low will move across srn WI during the day on Fri while the upper low moves across central to ne WI. Widespread showers and possibly some heavy rainfall will continue at least in the morning. Some showers may linger into Fri nt, but shortwave ridging and a pleasant day is expected for Sat.
A series of shortwave troughs will continue to affect the region from Sun-Tue with chances for showers and storms each day. Temps during the extended will be near normal but below normal on Fri given the widespread clouds and showers.
Gehring
AVIATION
Issued 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move east across the area late this evening, before exiting from west to east overnight, along and ahead of a cold front. The current activity may gradually weaken as it continues east. Still concern for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, mainly around and southwest of Madison.
Ceilings will drop gradually overnight into Wednesday morning, with a period of 700 to 900 foot AGL ceilings. May also see some locally reduced visibility values to 1 to 2 miles in any heavier rain areas. The low clouds should move out or scatter out across the area by middle to late morning on Wednesday.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds may develop in the afternoon.
Light winds will gradually shift southwest to west overnight.
Low level wind shear conditions are expected overnight, ending around 09Z to 10Z Wednesday, with south southwest winds around 40 to 45 knots. West winds will linger into Wednesday, with a few gusts to 15 knots or so in the afternoon.
Wood
MARINE
Issued 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front will continue to move across Lake Michigan overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue until the front passes through. Breezy southeast to south winds will gradually veer southwest behind the front overnight into early Wednesday morning, with southwest to west winds later on Wednesday.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for areas north of Port Washington, for gusty southeast to south winds and lingering high waves.
Winds will weaken Wednesday night into Independence Day, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves into the area. Low pressure around 29.7 inches will then move into the region Friday, then slowly east Friday night. Easterly winds ahead of the low Friday should gradually shift westerly behind it Friday night into Saturday.
Wood
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Flood Watch
WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 1 AM Wednesday.
Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 1 AM Wednesday.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643 until 1 AM Wednesday.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move across the area this evening, before exiting overnight. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are the main concerns in this activity.
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 AM CDT Wednesday across areas around and southwest of Madison.
- Dangerous swimming conditions continue until 1 AM CDT Wednesday at Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties.
- Elevated water levels continue on area rivers and streams through the end of the week. Flood Warnings remain in effect in several locations.
- Independence Day forecast trends for widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to push later overnight Thursday into Friday. However, there will still be a 20 to 40 percent chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms with a lightning risk through Thursday afternoon and evening.
UPDATE
Issued 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move east across the area late this evening, before exiting from west to east overnight, along and ahead of a cold front. Upper divergence from the right entrance region of a jet streak should move away from the area, so the current activity may gradually weaken as it continues east.
Still concern for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, with high precipitable water values over 2.00 inches and moist adiabatic temperature and moisture profiles. Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.50 inches per hour have been seen in earlier convection, though these rates may lower as upward vertical motion gradually weakens overnight.
For now, will maintain the Flood Watch for Madison and to the southwest, until all of the moderate rainfall moves out of that area. May see some rivers rise in response to this latest round of rainfall.
The high swim risk and Beach Hazards Statement continues for Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties until 1 AM CDT, with southeast winds bringing high waves and rip currents to that area.
Wood
SHORT TERM
Issued 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight and Wednesday:
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Afternoon surface observations depict a cold front extending from the MN Boundary Waters south into the Missouri Valley. Evident in GOES water vapor imagery, an upper shortwave is progressing eastward along the South Dakota-Nebraska border. Both of the aforementioned features are progged to track east toward the region this evening, triggering shower and thunderstorm development in the process. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are possible in this activity given an unseasonably moist air mass in place across the area, with a Flood Watch in effect across our southwestern counties between 3 PM and 1 AM. Convection will push east of the area during the predawn hours as the aforementioned cold front clears the area from west to east. Post-frontal high pressure will nudge into southern Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon, allowing for decreasing cloud cover and primarily dry conditions.
Rest Of This Afternoon & This Evening: Hazardous swimming conditions continue at all Lake Michigan beaches given a combination of high waves and dangerous currents. Already in progress to our west, shower and thunderstorms will continue to fill in as they move toward the area. Storms will be encountering an unseasonably moist air mass characterized by precipitable water values in the 1.75 to 2.25 inch range, which reside anywhere between 1.5 and 2 standard deviations above early July normals. Storms will thus be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates this afternoon/evening, and will pose some potential for flooding. Latest flash flood guidance from the North Central River Forecast Center depicts six hourly values between 1.5 and 2 inches across the region. 6 hour QPF progs from the 12Z HRRR, in addition to more recent runs from the HRRR, point toward these thresholds being met in localized pockets across southwestern Wisconsin and the Wisconsin River Valley. Have thus issued a Flood Watch for Sauk, Columbia, Iowa, Dane, Lafayette, and Green Counties between 3 PM and 1 AM. Stay aware for rising water in these locations, and remember to turn around, don't drown if encountering flooded roadways. While well secondary to the flooding potential, an isolated strong to severe storm can't be completely ruled out over far southwestern counties (particularly Green, Iowa, and Lafayette Cos) during the 4-8 PM timeframe. This potential will be heavily contingent upon the realization of surface-based instability. Said realization has been hinted in the 12Z HRRR, as well as more recent runs of the HRRR and NAM Nest. Damaging winds would be the primary concern in any strong/severe storms, though a brief tornado would be possible in any activity becoming favorably aligned with 40-45 kt, southwesterly shear vectors in the 0-3 km layer. Will continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
Wednesday: Skies will turn partly cloudy by late morning as the cold front pushes east of the area. Have maintained an entirely dry forecast, but did insert some 10% precip probs over far northern counties, where some mesoscale guidance hints at isolated shower and thundershower development during the afternoon hours.
LONG TERM
Issued 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Wednesday night through Tuesday:
This will be an active period with shortwave troughs arriving within wnwly flow aloft. For Independence Day, a 700 mb shortwave trough will track across nrn IL or far srn WI. Mid level warm, moist advection and PVA along with marginal CAPE will support PoPs of 20-40 percent for the afternoon and evening. The convection may only be elevated and will depend on the amount of clouds and sfc heating. Either way, scattered showers and isold storms are forecast.
A larger and slower moving shortwave trough will then approach from the ern Dakotas and MN late Thu nt. A surge of 850-700 mb warm, moist advection and increasing PVA within a PW airmass of 1.4-1.8 inches and marginal CAPE will result in widespread showers and sct storm development. A developing sfc low will move across srn WI during the day on Fri while the upper low moves across central to ne WI. Widespread showers and possibly some heavy rainfall will continue at least in the morning. Some showers may linger into Fri nt, but shortwave ridging and a pleasant day is expected for Sat.
A series of shortwave troughs will continue to affect the region from Sun-Tue with chances for showers and storms each day. Temps during the extended will be near normal but below normal on Fri given the widespread clouds and showers.
Gehring
AVIATION
Issued 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move east across the area late this evening, before exiting from west to east overnight, along and ahead of a cold front. The current activity may gradually weaken as it continues east. Still concern for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, mainly around and southwest of Madison.
Ceilings will drop gradually overnight into Wednesday morning, with a period of 700 to 900 foot AGL ceilings. May also see some locally reduced visibility values to 1 to 2 miles in any heavier rain areas. The low clouds should move out or scatter out across the area by middle to late morning on Wednesday.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds may develop in the afternoon.
Light winds will gradually shift southwest to west overnight.
Low level wind shear conditions are expected overnight, ending around 09Z to 10Z Wednesday, with south southwest winds around 40 to 45 knots. West winds will linger into Wednesday, with a few gusts to 15 knots or so in the afternoon.
Wood
MARINE
Issued 923 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front will continue to move across Lake Michigan overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue until the front passes through. Breezy southeast to south winds will gradually veer southwest behind the front overnight into early Wednesday morning, with southwest to west winds later on Wednesday.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for areas north of Port Washington, for gusty southeast to south winds and lingering high waves.
Winds will weaken Wednesday night into Independence Day, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves into the area. Low pressure around 29.7 inches will then move into the region Friday, then slowly east Friday night. Easterly winds ahead of the low Friday should gradually shift westerly behind it Friday night into Saturday.
Wood
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Flood Watch
WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 1 AM Wednesday.
Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 1 AM Wednesday.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643 until 1 AM Wednesday.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KETB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KETB
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KETB
Wind History graph: ETB
(wind in knots)
Milwaukee, WI,
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