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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 030256 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 956 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 945 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023)

The continued influence of high pressure will keep things clear and quiet tonight. Widespread fog is not expected due to the past few days of drying we've had, but a few roaming banks in low lying areas will be possible.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
(Issued 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Persistence is key here. High pressure is slowly inching off to the east. Southerly winds continue to usher near-record warm air into southern WI. The 925 mb temps are around 21C today and will be similar tomorrow, if not a little warmer. We should have more cumulus clouds tomorrow than today toward central WI, as there will be a little more moisture at 925mb and warm air advection.
Expect another late afternoon subtle lake breeze.

The models, including the NBM, are underdoing the forecast temps since bias correction and climatology play a role. We continue to use persistence for the forecast temperatures (and dewpoints)
through Tuesday night.

Cronce

LONG TERM
(Issued 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023)

Wednesday through Monday:

The leading edge of the high-amplitude upper trough that is trekking across the center of the country will push into WI early Wednesday. The better, deeper forcing with frontogenesis, 850mb warm air advection, and the entrance region of the upper jet will lift off to the north of our area (southern WI) Wednesday morning, but there is expected to be enough low level moisture advection and mid level vorticity advection to support scattered showers (45% chance) in southern WI Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the deeper forcing focuses over southeast WI and Lake Michigan, so there is a better chance (65%) for showers there.

With only modestly steep mid level lapse rates, the instability is not great (500 j/kg) during the Wednesday and Wednesday night period. Bulk shear should be around 40 kt. Therefore, lightning should accompany the stronger showers, but no severe storms are expected.

There should be a lull in the precip chances Thursday morning as the initial trough exits and we wait for the next upper trough to push in. Again, the better forcing will be to our north, but any low clouds under cyclonic flow could produce light rain or drizzle. The colder air will arrive on that next upper trough Thursday afternoon, so Friday will be cold and blustery with scattered showers. Highs Friday will be in the 50s and winds should be out of the west with up to 30 mph wind gusts.

Unfortunately, this system is going to evolve into a closed upper low that sits over the Great Lakes over the weekend. Models are notorious for allowing that low to exit too quickly in the forecast. Therefore, we can not make any promises for a dry weekend. Sunshine before Monday afternoon seems improbable as well.

Clouds and winds will help determine how cold we get over the weekend, but upper 30s seem probable.

Cronce

AVIATION
(Issued 955 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023)

Quiet conditions will continue overnight as high pressure continues to cause subsidence over the region. VFR conditions are expected into tomorrow, and widespread fog is not expected overnight outside of a few roaming banks of ground fog in low lying areas. Winds will be light and southerly overnight and will become modestly breezy during the day on Tuesday to 15 to 20 knots. Winds will turn southeasterly toward the evening hours.

CMiller

MARINE
(Issued 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023)

High pressure will remain over the lower Great Lakes region through Tuesday night, with modest south to southeast winds lingering across Lake Michigan. A cold front will enter the region from the west Wednesday into Wednesday night, with increasing south winds and bringing increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected Thursday into the weekend as cooler air moves in. There is some potential for gusts exceeding 30 knots Thursday night into Saturday. Waves will increase as well. Small Craft Advisory level winds and waves are looking more likely for this period for the nearshore waters, and will have to watch for gale force gust potential for Friday night into Saturday for the open waters.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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