Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New London, NH

KEY MESSAGES
1. No significant weather is expected through Thursday night.

2. Unsettled pattern will bring multiple chances for mainly light precipitation events late Friday through Sunday night. Little in the way of impacts are anticipated as rain will be the dominant precipitation type south of the mountains with only minor snow accumulations in the mountains.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Winds have become light this afternoon as high pressure has started to build overhead. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected the rest of the day, but conditions will stay dry as these are only the mid and high variety, and the airmass is extremely dry in the low levels. The high will begin to shift to the northeast with low-level flow become S/SE overnight, which should keep temperatures a little milder than last night/this morning especially with some mid and high clouds hanging around.

Temperatures begin to recover slightly Thursday with WAA and southerly flow in place with the high continuing to push northeast and a weak front approaching from the west as low pressure passes well north of the Great Lakes.

Dry conditions are expected across NH, but with the increasing southerly/onshore flow, hi-res guidance is indicating that parts of western ME may see light snow showers or flurries in the morning and afternoon owing to weak convergence/lift and ocean-effect processes.
Location is a bit uncertain, but general consensus is a fairly narrow corridor with the 12Z CAMs focusing on an area spanning across portions of the Casco Bay and Lakes Regions over toward the southern Kennebec Valley and Midcoast. Some places could see a coating of snow before temps climb above freezing.

As the weak front approaches later in the day, chances for snow showers will increase through Thursday night, especially from the foothills northward but moreso in and around the mountains. An inch or two are possible in the higher elevations with less than an inch toward the valley floors.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Latest incoming 12Z guidance continue to advertise an active pattern with weak systems crossing the area every 12-24 hours from Friday night through Sunday night. Precipitation amounts and types along with timing exhibit a fair amount of variability at this time while the potential for weather impacts remains low.

The first system approaches late Friday as a short wave dives southeast out of the Great Lakes into southern New England.
Ensembles continue to show variance in the strength and track of this wave and resultant surface low as it brings precipitation to the region Friday night through Saturday morning. The latest NBM brings around 0.25 inches of QPF with this system with PoPs now ranging from 60-70 percent. Thermal profiles will support mostly snow in the mountains, a rain/snow mix across the foothills, and mostly rain south of the foothills. Temperatures will likely warm above freezing Saturday morning across the north allowing any light snow accumulations to melt. Highs on Saturday will top out in the 40s across the north and 50s across the south.

There will likely be a break in precipitation Saturday afternoon and Saturday night before the next system approaches Sunday. This system will involve a stalled front draped west to east across the Northeast with waves of low pressure tracking along the boundary Sunday into Sunday night. This system has potential to be longer duration and therefore bring more QPF to the forecast area. However, several ensemble members push the front south of the forecast area with the waves of low pressure tracking too far south to bring much in the way of precipitation. The latest NBM keeps PoPs in the 30-50 percent range Sunday with snow or rain/snow mix across the north and rain south of the mountains. Colder air eventually works into the area Sunday night that may allow for any rain to the change to snow north to south before precipitation ends late Sunday night. Ensembles then suggest high pressure will build in Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected. There is a low chance for an isolated snow flurry Thu morning (<=20%) but restrictions are not expected. Light and variable winds tonight will become S-SE on Thursday with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
Winds will relax once again Thu night.

Outlook..

Rest of Thursday: MVFR possible for the western ME terminals Thurs afternoon should snow showers do develop. VFR otherwise.

Thursday night: Light snow showers and IFR to MVFR restrictions possible. Higher chances are at HIE, LEB, and AUG, especially HIE.

Friday: Mainly VFR, except at KHIE where lowering cigs and -SHSN will bring potential for MVFR Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday night: A series of weak systems will bring chances for rain and/or snow showers through the period which will bring some periods of at least MVFR. VFR is likely outside of rain and/or snow showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR with no sig wx.

MARINE
High pressure builds across the waters today and then shifts to the north and east tonight and Thursday as low pressure passes well north of the Great Lakes. This will send a weak frontal boundary toward the waters Thursday night. Southerly winds are expected to remain below 25 kt, but SCA conditions are expected to continue over the outer waters through afternoon with seas remaining at or above 5 ft until then. It's then possible seas climb back to around 5 ft Thursday night over the outer waters.

Winds and seas generally stay below SCA thresholds Friday. A series of weak systems will cross Friday night through Sunday that will likely bring an extended period of SCAs. NW winds in the wake of the Sunday system could gust to Gale force Sunday night.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153.