Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:15 AM   Moonset 8:25 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 282205 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 605 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers with embedded rumbles of thunder will continue into this evening along a surface cold front. Slightly drier air develops after midnight, before more showers are possible over northern New York on Monday. Our next system will impact the region late Monday night into Tuesday with showers likely. Temperatures will hold in the 40s to lower 50s tonight and warm into the upper 50s north to near 70 degrees south on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 557 PM EDT Sunday...Have issued a quick update, mainly to bring PoPs and sky cover into better agreement with the latest radar and satellite trends. Skies are cloudy to mostly cloudy areawide, while showers are most concentrated from the northern Greens westward into the central St Lawrence Valley. Some of this activity has been heavy, with up to a quarter of an inch reported in the past hour in some spots. While CAPE is minimal, still can't rule out a stray rumble of thunder or two through sunset or so, especially over northern NY. This activity will gradually shift southward this evening, waning gradually as it does so. Lows will drop into the 40s for most locations.

Previous discussion...Interesting temperature day acrs our cwa with NY Mesonet site at North Hudson warming to 78F, while Saranac Mesonet just to the north has stayed in the upper 50s. The impacts of clouds have created a differential heating type boundary over Essex County NY into the central CPV this aftn, where sfc based CAPE per laps has increased to 400-600 J/kg, just enough to support a few stronger updrafts with crnt line of showers dropping southeast. Behind this line of showers the atmosphere is rather stable, but latest HRRR/RAP and NAM solutions continue to show additional showers redeveloping toward 21z and continuing into the evening hours along a sfc cold frnt. This boundary wl have limited instability, so mainly anticipating a showers with a few embedded rumbles thru the evening hours, along with localized heavy down pours. Supported by pw values of 1.20 to 1.4 inches acrs our cwa. Boundary and associated forcing and moisture wl slide just south of our cwa by midnight, with developing subsidence. Soundings show deep dry layer btwn 850-500mb, while plenty of moisture is trapped below inversion, supporting the development of stratus/areas of fog/br possible in deeper valleys where precip occurred today. Lows range from the lower/mid 40s to near 50F.

Monday guidance is showing the potential for additional showers over northern NY, especially in the morning. The areal coverage of showers is challenging, as both NAM/GFS show good 850 to 700mb moisture and weak 5h vort riding over building ridge. So feel qpf/pops might be a tad low, so have bumped chc pops into northern NY with schc into the CPV. Not anticipating a washout, but a shower or two is possible with cold frnt lifting back northward as a warm frnt, especially aloft. Temps are once again pretty tricky with boundary nearby and clouds impacting values.
Progged 925mb temps range from 4C NEK to 8C southern cwa, so have highs upper 50s to near 70F. Mid/upper lvl ridge begins to breakdown on Monday night with approaching boundary and deeper layer moisture as pw values increase btwn 0.90 and 1.2 by 12z.
Have chc/likely pops aft 06z with temps holding in the upper 30s NEK to near 50F SLV/CPV. Would not be surprised if temps warm acrs western dacks into the mid/upper 50s by 12z, given progged 925mb temps near 10C, while values hover just above 0C over the NEK.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 333 PM EDT Sunday...A weak surface low and mid-level shortwave will bring widespread precipitation to the region on Tuesday, especially Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values will near in exceed an inch, above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as a plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible with some elevated instability, although it looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings.
High temperatures during the day on Tuesday will climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s, with southern portions of the forecast area getting close to 70. Precipitation will begin to diminish overnight Tuesday as drier air returns. Fairly mid overnight lows are in store Tuesday night with linger precipitation and cloud cover, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 333 PM EDT Sunday...Upper level ridging will build across the region, with dry weather expected for the middle of of the week, although a few showers along the international border cannot be ruled out as shortwaves round the top of the ridge. Temperatures will warm throughout the week, with the broad valleys reaching into the 70s for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will continue to be on the warm side, with temperatures dropping into the mid 40s to mid 50s. A more unsettled weather pattern with scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected towards the weekend as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday...Radar is showing a line of showers and embedded thunder quickly moving over northern NY into VT. This activity looks to impact SLK/BTV/PBG and EFK with brief heavy down pour, localized wind gust to 25 knots, and a few rumbles of thunder over the next 1 to 2 hours. Brief MVFR is possible in the heavier showers. Additional showers are likely this aftn/evening, before cold front clears our taf sites by 02z, along with winds shifting from south to north/northwest.
Tonight, soundings indicate developing subsidence inversion around 04z, which could result in areas of stratus and mvfr to localized ifr cigs btwn 06z-12z. Greatest probability would be at MPV/SLK and EFK, but given another two taf packages away, have not mention in 18z tafs attm. Otherwise, feel a general trend toward mvfr cigs are likely overnight at most sites with improving conditions by mid morning Monday. Also, look for developing northeast winds at SLK/MSS by early Monday morning at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:51 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
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