Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Bend, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday March 29, 2020 8:46 PM PDT (03:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:55AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 215 Pm Pdt Sun Mar 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 11 pm pdt this evening through Monday morning...
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming S gales 35 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft...building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Chance of showers before dark, then rain.
Mon..SW wind 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft... Subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds...building to 7 ft at 10 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Mon night..W wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 7 to 8 ft at 10 seconds...building to 9 ft at 11 seconds after midnight. Showers.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 11 to 12 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Wed..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 9 ft. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Wed night..NW wind 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Thu..NE wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 ft.
Fri..SE wind 5 kt...veering to sw in the afternoon, then... Veering to nw. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 ft...subsiding to 3 ft.
PZZ300 215 Pm Pdt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..The strongest in a series of fronts is expected late tonight into Monday morning. It will bring gales north of gold beach with hazardous seas elsewhere. Seas will then become swell dominated later Monday with small craft advisory conditions through Tuesday night. Weak ridging is likely at mid-week with at least briefly improving conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bend, OR
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location: 43.42, -124.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 300333 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 833 PM PDT Sun Mar 29 2020

UPDATE.

Latest radar and surface station observations show the showers clearing out in coverage this evening. However, the incoming weather system and associated cold front is expected to bring some more precipitation into the region later tonight.

We also evaluated the potential for high winds at the coast this evening as noted by the day shift in the discussion below. Latest model guidance has dropped the OTH - ACV gradient down to 7mb from 8mb. In addition, we would like to see a strong synoptic low strengthening near our coastline to see high winds at the coast. We simply don't have that this time around. Simply look for some windy conditions along the coast tonight as the cold front moves closer to shore.

Read the discussion below for more information on the weather beyond tonight.

-Smith

SHORT TERM. /Issued 257 PM PDT Sun Mar 29 2020/

Current radar is showing lots of showers out there this afternoon. This is in response to an upper level trough moving through. Overall, precipitation has been light, but a few locations, including at North Bend along the coast, picked up around 0.50 of an inch of rain with the showers this morning and early this afternoon. Models are indicating showers will continue through late afternoon, with a primary focus in the terrain from the Coast Ranges to the Umpqua Divide and into the Cascades, but with activity more scattered to the south and east. There is still a small chance of a thunderstorm in Lake County.

While coverage of showers will diminish some this evening as the trough pushes east of the area, they may not go away completely as the next fast-moving short wave trough arrives from the Pacific. Models are showing precipitation already moving back onshore overnight and spreading to the Cascades by Monday morning. The parent closed low associated with this trough will then move southeastward to near Vancouver Island Monday into Tuesday. This will send a cold front onshore Monday that will settle southward into northern California by Tuesday morning. I've broken down this event in the sections below:

RAIN/LIQUID PRECIPITATION: Since the flow will be primarily WSW, we expect periods of moderate to heavy precipitation during this time frame along the coast and also the adjacent Coast Ranges/Cascades with common liquid amounts of 0.50-2.00 inches, perhaps slightly higher than that where orographic enhancement is maximized (Coast Ranges/Cascades north of Hwy 140). This could also result in a relative maximum in precipitation just south and east of Mount Shasta City where 0.50-1.50 inches seem likely. For the west side valleys south of the Umpqua Divide, where some downslope will cut precip amounts, we're looking at 0.10 of an inch in the Shasta Valley to around a third of an inch in Medford and maybe 0.50 of an inch near Grants Pass. Over the east side, expect mostly 0.10-0.50 of an inch with some higher totals in the mountains and closer to the Cascades. While certainly a dreary weather pattern, the good news is that this precipitation will be beneficial since our area continues to experience growing drought concerns with low stream/river levels, below normal water storage, and below normal mountain snow pack. Speaking of snow:

SNOW: Snow levels on Monday will be mostly above 4500 feet with most accumulating snow above 5000 feet. We have adjusted the winter weather advisory (WSWMFR) to begin at 5 am Monday in zone 27 (Crater/Diamond Lakes) since precipitation there is expected to be heavier throughout the day and could overcome higher sun angle and daytime road surface warming. ODOT contacts indicated they observed this with the last storm on March 23-25th, where road surface temperatures stayed close to 32F all day while it was snowing steadily. Think this will also be the case Monday. Snow will then continue, heavy at times Monday night into Tuesday morning with total accumulations of 8-12 inches, perhaps up to 15 inches up at Crater Lake National Park. We have also expanded the winter weather advisory southward to include Lake of the Woods and Dead Indian Memorial Road and also eastward to include Highway 97 north of Chiloquin (Chemult/Crescent) for Monday night into Tuesday morning. While snow will be lighter there and perhaps mixed with rain during the day Monday with roads mostly wet/slushy, there is a window of opportunity where accumulating snow could occur overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Overall, along Highway 97 amounts of 2-4 inches are a good bet, with 4-8 inches along Highway 140 at Lake of the Woods and Dead Indian. Be prepared for winter conditions if traveling during this time period. Showers likely continue Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday, but with diminished coverage, amounts will be lower. While snow levels are expected to drop to around 2000 feet by Wednesday morning, we're not currently expecting any snow accumulation for the lower passes north of Medford.

WIND: Models this afternoon increased pressure gradients from OTH-ACV to around -8.0 mb for tonight. This will likely bring a period of strong, gusty south winds to the coast with wind gusts of 40-55 mph, just shy of warning levels. The MFR-RDD gradient is also -6 to -8 mb, but the direction for the Shasta Valley is too westerly. Think there will be a period of south winds there too with gusts to 40 mph, but should be just below an advisory. Meanwhile, advisory level west to southwest winds are a good bet east of the Cascades Monday/Monday evening (models indicate 700 mb winds of 55-60 kt). Since winds have increased a bit there, have added a high wind warning to a small area between Paisley and Summer Lake where gusts to 60 mph are likely.

Onshore flow will finally ease Wednesday and it will begin to dry out, especially Wednesday night. -Spilde

LONG TERM. /Issued 257 PM PDT Sun Mar 29 2020/

Thursday through Sunday . Operational models continue to change their tune on a daily basis. While yesterday's 12z runs were advertising a ridge with a warming trend, today's 12z runs show upper level troughing lingering over Canada that will continue to send shortwaves through the area under northwest to westerly flow. Models also continue to delay the ending of showers with this upper low, now holding onto showers into Thursday morning instead of Wednesday.

Given the day to day changes in the model runs, there is low confidence in the extended period. It does seem, however, that the pattern favors at least some kind of activity given that the area will be under northwest to westerly flow, and the operational models as well as their ensembles indicate this. As typical, there are differences between the models regarding timing and strength of shortwaves, but the reflects the idea that showers should taper off by Thursday afternoon with a break in the weather expected through most of Friday. The GFS is eager to bring a compact robust system into the area by late Friday morning while the EC holds off until Saturday and is less robust. To account for the uncertainty, have leaned toward the Blend of Models which keeps a slight chance PoPs along the coast and along and north of the Umpqua Divide and Cascades north of Lake of the Woods. Both models along with their respective ensembles are in agreement that showers will likely be around for much of the area on Sunday, but again there remains differences between timing and amounts. So overall, the forecast was adjusted from dry and warm to some mention of PoPs as well as a general downward trend in high temperatures. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 30/00Z TAF Cycle . At the coast, widespread MVFR cigs with areas of MVFR vis and local IFR cigs will continue through Monday afternoon. IFR cigs/vis may increase along the coast as a front moves inland late tonight and Monday morning. Inland, conditions will mainly be VFR with areas of MVFR cigs through tonight with areas of mountain obscurations. As the front moves inland late tonight and early Monday, expect more widespread MVFR conditions with local IFR conditions to develop and continue through much of the day Monday. Gradual improvement is expected across inland areas late Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front expect breezy winds along the coast, across the higher terrain, and across the east side. Areas of low level wind shear are possible tonight and Monday morning, especially over the coastal mountains and for areas from the Southern Oregon Cascades east. -CC

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday 29 March 2020 . The forecast was updated to expand the coverage of the Gale Warning late tonight into Monday morning to cover north of Gold Beach about within 30 NM of shore. This is due to the strongest in a series of fronts. Outside of the area of gales, most of the waters will be under a hazardous seas warning. Seas will then become swell dominated later Monday morning with small craft advisory conditions likely to peak on Tuesday and continue through Tuesday night.

Weak ridging is likely at mid-week with at least briefly improving conditions Wednesday into Thursday. Model uncertainty is high beyond Thursday, but the pattern may become active again. -DW/CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ030. Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ030-031. High Wind Warning from 5 AM Monday to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ031. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ027. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ028.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-370-376. Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 5 mi71 min S 1.9 G 12 50°F1015.4 hPa
SNTO3 10 mi77 min SSW 7 49°F 1016 hPa47°F
46128 16 mi47 min 46°F 50°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 28 mi17 min 50°F7 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 48 mi47 min SSE 22 G 29 50°F 51°F1017.9 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi51 minSSW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS5SE5SE6SE7SE7SE5SE7SE7SE6SE6SE6SE6SE8SE7S6S8S7SW8SW11SW10S9S6SE5S7

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:32 AM PDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:22 AM PDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:58 PM PDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:54 PM PDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.95.76.26.35.74.73.42.11.10.60.71.22.13.144.64.84.64.13.532.83.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.