Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bend, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:34PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 4:37 AM PDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 207 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Today..S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 30 kt. Cape arago southward, S wind 20 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft...building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 14 ft at 15 seconds...building to 16 to 17 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Thu night..S wind 20 kt...becoming sw 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 16 to 17 ft. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers through the night.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 14 to 15 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..S wind 15 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. NW swell 12 to 14 ft. Rain.
Sat..W wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt in the evening, then...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 12 to 13 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft.
PZZ300 207 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front will move through the waters Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will bring strong south winds and steep to very steep seas tonight through Wednesday. Winds should be strongest north of cape blanco. A long period west swell will bring high and steep to very steep seas Wednesday night through Thursday evening along with heavy surf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bend, OR
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location: 43.42, -124.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 160349
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
849 pm pdt Tue oct 15 2019

Discussion The front has begun to arrive in our area. As of
8:45 pm, the radar was beginning to show light returns across
portions of coos, northern douglas and further north into
portland's forecast area. Clouds are showing this as well with a
bit of clearing skies to the south infiltrating into siskiyou
county which will spread a bit northward and eastward into modoc
county this evening and overnight. This seems to be well forecast,
and no rapid updates are needed this with this package.

Please see the previous discussion below to find out more details
of the forecast. -schaaf

Aviation For the 16 00z tafs... From the cascades west...VFR
conditions will prevail into Wednesday morning. An incoming front
will bring areas of MVFR CIGS with rain to the coastal waters and
coast Wednesday morning with higher terrain becoming obscured. The
lower conditions and precipitation will spread inland to the
cascades and siskiyous by late Wednesday afternoon. The lower
conditions will prevail through Wednesday night. East of the
cascades...VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday night, but
gusty winds will develop by Wednesday afternoon and persist into
Wednesday evening. Areas of precipitation will develop late
Wednesday afternoon and persist through Wednesday night.

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Monday 15 october 2019... The first in
a series of fronts will move through the waters Wednesday night.

Gusty south winds and steep to very steep seas are expected tonight
into Wednesday. Winds will be strongest from CAPE blanco north and
beyond 3 nm from shore. Winds and wind gusts will approach gale
force late Wednesday morning and may reach gale force in a few
locations near CAPE arago, but they won't be widespread. The greater
threat will be very steep seas, thus a hazardous seas warning
remains in effect.

High and long period west to northwest swell will build into the
coastal waters Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Guidance
suggest swell heights peaking out between 16 and 18 feet at 16
seconds Thursday into Thursday evening before gradually diminishing
late Thursday night into Friday. A hazardous seas watch remains in
effect for this event as does a high surf advisory.

Small craft conditions are expected outside of the hazardous seas
warning and watch due to gusty winds and choppy wind driven seas
Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, then for the higher swell
Wednesday night through at least Thursday evening. For details on
all the hazards, please see mwwmfr.

Small craft advisory conditions may continue into Friday.

Prev discussion issued 238 pm pdt Tue oct 15 2019
short term... Overall, no big changes were made to the forecast.

Today will be the last dry, warm day through at least the
weekend. Thick high level clouds are streaming over the area this
afternoon, and these are associated with a front expected to
affect the area late tonight through Wednesday. This front will
mark the transition to a much cooler and wetter pattern with high
temperatures around 10 to as much as 20 degrees below normal for
this time of year.

A seasonable front will make it's way into the forecast area
Wednesday. While this front isn't particularly strong, it is of the
more stronger variety compared to what has been experienced so far
this season. Although it will be more beneficial than impactful,
there will be gusty winds and periods of moderate to heavy rain with
this front. Rain looks to arrive at the coast Wednesday morning,
gradually moving inland through the day. Over a 24 hour period
(Wednesday morning - Thursday morning), rainfall totals look to be
around 1.00"-1.50" along the coast south of CAPE blanco, 0.50"-1.00"
north of CAPE blanco, along the cascades, and in western siskiyou
county with 0.25"-0.50" expected for inland areas west of the
cascades. East of the cascades, and south of the siskiyous, expect
generally less than a quarter of an inch.

Snow levels will remain high during this front, around 7000-8000 ft,
and lowering to around 5000-6000 ft behind the front. By then the
bulk of the precipitation will be through, so minimal impacts are
expected due to snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday. Moderate
southwest flow with this system will bring some breezy conditions
along the coast and east of the cascades. Current guidance continues
to keep winds just below advisory criteria, but gusts to 40 mph are
expected east of the cascades in the typically windy areas (i.E.

Summer lake). The shasta valley will be breezy as well, with gusts
to 30 mph expected, but given the flow is southwesterly this should
keep the winds from getting too strong.

More fronts will follow Thursday into Friday, but will be weaker in
terms of winds and precipitation. Moderate mid-level westerly flow
will favor precipitation along the coast, the cascades and other
north-south oriented terrain during this time. Snow levels will
hover around 5000-6000 feet during this time, and we're expecting
around 2-6 inches of snow in the cascades from late Wednesday night
through Friday night , with up to 8 inches possible for the highest
peaks. Travel impacts should be minimal and restricted to the passes
north of highway 140.

A more robust system moves into the area late Friday night into
Saturday as we head into the extended. Br-y
long term... Saturday through Tuesday... Saturday will likely
feature the wettest front of the week. Models have recently
trended higher on expected precipitation with this system. Winds
will also become gusty, especially in the high terrain and east of
the cascades. There are some indications that some gusty winds
could reach down into the valleys, and this wouldn't be surprising
given the strength of this front. Snow levels dip to around 5500
feet behind the front on Saturday, and current indications that
over a foot of snow is possible at crater lake and around 6 inches
at diamond lake from early Saturday through Saturday evening.

40-50 kt westerly flow at 10000 feet (msl) is perpendicular to the
cascades and supports heavy precipitation over these mountains,
so there is some potential for winter impacts over the higher
passes in the cascades. We'll be fine-tuning this through the
week as the event draws closer.

On Sunday models are suggesting rising snow levels and lighter
precipitation will accompany a warm front pushing through the
forecast area from east to west. Temperatures will not rise much
from the cool readings on Saturday, thanks to a lot of cloud cover.

Saturday and Sunday high temperatures will be about 10 degrees below
normal for this time of year. The suite of operational models and
ensemble members strongly supports drying and warming conditions
Monday into much of the next week. There may be a few weaker systems
that move through in westerly or northwesterly flow (maybe Tuesday
for instance) but on the whole, next week looks much warmer and
drier than this weekend.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
orz021-022.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... High surf advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
pzz350-356.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening for pzz350-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt Wednesday for pzz350.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt Wednesday for pzz370.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 am to 5 pm pdt Wednesday for
pzz376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 5 mi62 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 50°F1012.8 hPa
46128 16 mi98 min S 25 53°F 54°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 28 mi38 min 57°F10 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 48 mi50 min SE 18 G 23 50°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi42 minS 710.00 miFair53°F46°F80%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE8S5SE4SE8SE85SW5SE7S5W8SW7W6SW5S5S5S3S3S8S8SE7SE5S5S7
1 day agoSE4CalmE3SE3CalmCalmW4N5NW8N9N13
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Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM PDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:07 PM PDT     6.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:46 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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45.25.85.95.44.43.42.62.32.63.44.55.66.56.96.65.74.32.71.30.40.20.71.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.