Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 051841 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 141 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will remain firmly below normal through the weekend as a series of cold fronts supply cold air to the region. The cold fronts and some limited lake effect snow will produce minor accumulations tonight through Saturday night. A significant warming trend still on track for next week, with spring warmth peaking during the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Skies partly to mostly sunny, but it still chilly for early March. Early afternoon temps are generally in the 20s with some teens east of Lake Ontario. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 30s. Chill is only further added to by gusty west winds which is keeping wind chill readings in the single digits to mid teens. Not much snow yet, though a few flurries are likely flying southeast of the lakes.

Late today and into tonight, those flurries will transition to more lake effect snow showers regime as shortwave in larger scale trough aloft over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes sinks across the region. Temps will cool further with the wave while large scale moisture increases. Expect some light snow all areas with enhanced snow a good bet southeast of the lakes. Last night VIRRS satellite imagery showed water temps in open water areas of Lake Erie 34/35F while Lake Ontario was in the 39-42F range. Given the H85 temps down to -18c late tonight, no issue with over-water instability. Despite that, inversions do stay relatively low though Saturday, generally around 5kft, though lake equilibrium levels rise to 8kft with highest levels southeast of Lake Ontario. Moisture is a plus, but the overall lift is on the weak side.

Once the lake effect becomes more established later this evening and overnight, amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range seem likely by daybreak Saturday with a few more inches on Sat. morning before higher March sun angle will disrupt the bands. Considered advisory southeast of Lake Ontario, but there is still a fair amount of shear overnight in the mixed layer which could hamper organization and persistence. SLRs will be higher so the snow will have a good fluff factor to it. Overall, think a few locations could see near advisory snow accums by late Sat morning, but most areas will see sub advisory so opted to mention in HWO and will let evening shift or mid shift issue headlines if the lake effect ends up looking more persistent in our area.

Though the snow showers will generally persist southeast of the lakes on Saturday, even into Saturday afternoon, the higher sun angle will make it harder for snow to accumulate on roads and also result in snow showers becoming more cellular and scattered about intead of bands. Main issue in that type of regime will be brief lower visibility instead of actual accumlation. For areas not impacted by snow showers, will be another breezy and cold day with highs teens east of Lake Ontario and 20s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Aloft, a positively tilted trough over the Northeast Saturday night will eventually push east by Monday, where upper level riding across the Mid-West will work its way into the area. With the trough overhead, cold air at 850mb will remain in the mid negative teens Celsius for the weekend. The cold air and a shortwave passage Saturday night will continue to support lake effect snow showers south and southeast of Lake Ontario. Overall, up to an inch of snowfall can be expected.

The aforementioned ridging to the west of the trough will make its way into the central Great Lakes Sunday afternoon, which will shift its associated surface high over the region. This will act to diminish any lingering lake effect by mid-day Sunday. Then with the surface high overhead, a period of dry weather can be expected through the first half of the new work week. The only exception will be the passage of a weak warm front Monday night into Tuesday, creating slight chances for some snow showers across the North Country.

Otherwise, one last day of cooler temperatures Sunday with highs ranging in the 20s, before a southerly wind dominate and gradually advects warmer air into the region. This cool streak will break by Monday, when the area will be influenced by warm air advection due to the high pressure. Temperatures will warm up to normal day time highs for this time of year, with high temperatures in the 30s east of Lake Ontario and low to mid 40s elsewhere. The effects of the warm air advection will really begin to show Tuesday with highs in the 40s east of Lake Ontario and 50s across Western and North- central New York.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The warm and dry trend continues Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday may climb up into the mid to upper 50s with a few places seeing some 60 degree measurements.

Meanwhile aloft, a trough across western Canada will push the ridge axis east. The trough to the west of the area will eject several shortwaves through its base and cause associated surface lows to form across a wave frontal boundary. This will heighten precipitation chances Wednesday night through Friday. Due to the warm up precipitation will likely fall in the form of rain. As of now, only moderate rainfall is expected as high pressure over the Gulf will limit the deeper moisture transport.

With the higher terrain still blanketed by some sort of snowpack and the warm ambient temperatures, the snowpack will continue to ripen and melt. This may may cause some flooding and/or ice jam flooding, though this is mainly the case for the WNY area. The flooding potential will continue to be monitored as the warm up approaches. For now will continue to carry a mention for this in the HWO product.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As expected, MVFR CIGS have become more widespread over the western Southern Tier as lake effect clouds are re-developing. Otherwise VFR will prevail for the rest of the area. Northwest winds will remain breezy, with most areas seeing gusts to around 30 knots through early evening.

A mid level trough and cold front will move south across the area tonight. Snow showers will gradually increase from north to south with this system, with some added boost from developing lake effect snow showers. This will bring areas of MVFR/IFR VSBY overnight into Saturday, especially southeast of the lakes. MVFR CIGS will become widespread overnight into Saturday.

Outlook .

Saturday night . MVFR to VFR CIGS. Local MVFR/IFR VSBY mainly in the evening in lingering lake snow showers. Sunday . MVFR with a chance of snow showers in the morning, improving to VFR. Monday through Wednesday . VFR.

MARINE. West to northwest sustained winds will reach 30 knots on Lake Ontario and 20 knots on Lake Erie into tonight. Possible that a brief period of near gale force winds will occur on southeast Lake Ontario through late this afternoon. Though winds and waves will diminish compared to this afternoon, expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to persist on both lakes through the first half of the weekend. High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday, allowing winds and waves to diminish.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . JLA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	3 mi	54 min	W 31 G 40	26°F			1012.7 hPa	14°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	59 mi	42 min	W 22 G 29	29°F			1014.9 hPa (-3.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	60 mi	54 min		30°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W12 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	8 mi	48 min	W 21 G 35	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy and Breezy	27°F	12°F	53%	1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)

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