Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 090253 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 953 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes Monday with above normal temperatures and rain showers for the start of the work week, followed by colder weather and lake effect snow showers for mid week. High pressure will move across the region and bring a return to dry weather for Thursday night and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure off is the southern New England coast and a weak surface trough of low pressure is across the central Great Lakes. There will be broad mid-level warm air advection with a 40-50 knot low level jet across the area which will result in gusty southerly winds. Winds will gust to around 30 mph at most locations.

The southwesterly flow and approaching low pressure will provide a broad area of warm air and moisture advection. Chances for showers will increase after midnight, first across the North Country, then across western and central New York. The southerly flow will prevent temperatures from dropping below freezing at most locations, but there is a chance for mixed precipitation across the North Country. Thermal profiles show a warm layer of around +2c with surface temperatures around freezing in the Lewis county valleys tonight. Precipitation may start as snow, sleet, or freezing rain before changing to all rain Monday morning. It's worth noting that temperatures dropped below zero across portions of the North Country last night, leaving frozen ground surfaces. A Winter Weather Advisory for Lewis County remains in effect overnight. Elsewhere, low temperatures will range from the lower 40s across the lake plains west of Rochester with mid to upper 30s at most other locations.

An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region Monday and Monday night, while a surface low strengthens as it tracks across the central Great Lakes Monday and into southwestern Quebec Monday night. A persistent SSW 50 knot LLJ will provide warm air and moisture advection and favorable jet dynamics will support periods of rain during the period. QPF is heavily influenced by upsloping, with high resolution guidance showing localized amounts of 1-2 inches while the majority of the area will get between a half inch and an inch of rain. The steadiest rain will be Monday afternoon, and then will taper off from west to east Monday night.

Temperatures will be well above normal during the period with highs in the 40s across most of the area on Monday, and lower 50s near the Lake Erie shoreline where downslope warming will be most pronounced. The warmest conditions will probably be Monday evening, during a brief dry period just ahead of the cold front when temperatures will be in the upper 40s to around 50. The cold front will enter western New York late Monday night with southwesterly winds gusting to 40-45 mph. This front may also produce an additional round of rain showers.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Deepening low pressure system will track off across Quebec Canada Tuesday and then arrive over the Ungava Bay by early Tuesday evening. While it tracks northeast, it will send a sharp cold front from west to east across the Lower Lakes. Cold air advection on the back side of the front will send a MUCH colder airmass surging into our area. While temperatures initially will be in the 40s, look for them to fall into the 30s over the course of the day with windy conditions and precipitation winding down behind the front. With that said and as was previously discussed, there is some suggestion of a weak frontal wave developing along the front on Tuesday, per 12Z NAM, ECMWF, and now GFS. While this won't add anything of significant precipitation wise (possibly some wet snow flakes), it will potentially delay the exit of the front to our east.

Lake effect snows beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night .

Right now, it just doesn't look like there will be a decent lake effect response initially or even significant snowfall in the long run. While the air mass will grow colder with time (H850T -12C/-13C by 00Z Wednesday), other factors will be working against well organized and intense lake effect snows. First and foremost, there is a lack of deep synoptic moisture behind the front. It's a fairly dry air mass behind the front and then profiles show some decent shear. Finally, the BIGGEST factor is residence time. Per 12Z guidance and incorporating all the above factors, expect a weak lake response east of both lakes beginning late Tuesday afternoon and then continuing Tuesday night. Lake effect snows will likely focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Ontario with light accumulations occuring overnight.

Wednesday, a shortwave and associated low will race by to our north through Quebec Canada. Wind flow ahead of this feature will back winds more to the southwest directing lake snows off Erie to the north into the Southtowns and Buffalo Metro area. Off lake Ontario, lake snows will get redirected across central Jefferson county. Lake snows are still expected to remain fairly weak ahead of this feature as it travels north. As was previously said, convergence occuring along the cold front with the clipper may merge with the lake effect snows which may yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will then become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes.

The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow.

Wednesday night, in the wake of the cold front and clipper, lake snows will be focused southeast of both lakes under NW'erly flow. Lake snows will also gradually weaken overnight as high pressure over Wisconsin rapidly tracks east behind the departing clipper. A drier air mass will work in across the Lower Lakes and with a strengthening subsidence inversion (lowering equilibrium levels) lake snows will weaken as we head into Thursday.

In terms of temperatures, this will be some of the coldest air so far this winter season. Highs on Wednesday will likely only be in the low to mid 20s. Combine that with a brisk wind flow, and it will feel more like temperatures are in the low teens to single digits. Wednesday night, winds will subside but it will be cold with temperatures falling back into the teens south of Lake Ontario, and single digits across interior locals east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Thursday morning will end as high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise expect some partial clearing outside of lake effect clouds. Highs will be in the mid 20s in most locations. The surface high will still be close by Thursday night, with associated light winds allowing lows to drop into the teens in most areas, and single digits east of Lake Ontario.

The surface high moves off the east coast Friday, with a continuation of dry weather. Developing southerly flow in the wake of the departing high will bring the start of a warming trend, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. The warming trend will continue through Saturday with deep southerly flow across the eastern US, supporting highs back into the low 40s in most areas. A complex pattern will evolve over the east, with a northern stream trough moving into the western Great Lakes and a southern stream low moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Mid Atlantic states. Moisture spreading north of this southern stream low will bring an increasing chance of rain showers Saturday.

Rain showers will continue into Saturday night and Sunday as a complex storm system evolves over the Great Lakes and Northeast. In terms of temperatures, it appears that temperatures will average a little above normal Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ongoing warm air advection will support increasing mid and high level clouds across WNY, followed by low level moisture reaching the western Southern Tier with MVFR cigs overnight, then over the rest of Western and Central NY before 12Z.

Rain showers, possibly starting as mixed precipitation over inland cooler valleys of the North Country, will accompany the low level moisture overnight. KART will likely be all light rain. Rain will then spread across the rest of Western New York Monday morning, then spread east by afternoon. Expect the southerly downslope flow to keep all TAF locations in the MVFR flight category with the exception of KJHW which does not benefit from southerly downsloping.

A 40-50 knot LLJ will largely remain aloft late tonight and Monday, which will result in LLWS at some locations.

Outlook .

Monday night . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes. Thursday . VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. High pressure off the southern New England coast overnight will support a moderate southerly flow with 15 to 25 knot winds across the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where headlines are in place.

A windy period is expected through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night. Small craft headlines may need to be expanded.

HYDROLOGY. A period of warmer temperatures will cause snow melt which will add to run-off from rain on Monday and Tuesday. For most basins, rainfall amounts and the snow pack in place is limited, resulting in little risk for flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin, with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range. Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with 1-2 inches across localized favorable upslope regions. Latest RFC forecast has Boonville reaching action stage, with Watertown poised to reach it just beyond the forecast period. This is in line with latest MMEFS ensembles which show a fairly high likelihood that these points will reach action stage but very low probabilities of flooding.

Based on this, have added a mention of this risk to the HWO. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the situation bears watching. The greatest risk is if temperatures are warmer than expected. If this happens then the additional snow melt would be a concern, but for now there is not enough confidence to issue any flood headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/Zaff SHORT TERM . AR/Hitchcock LONG TERM . AR/Hitchcock AVIATION . Apffel/Zaff MARINE . Apffel/TMA HYDROLOGY . Apffel

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	3 mi	48 min	S 17 G 26				1016.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	59 mi	18 min	SSW 14 G 19	44°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	60 mi	48 min		43°F			1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

Last 24hr

SE12 G15

SE10 G14

S11 G14

SE13 G17

SE13 G19

S14 G21

SE16 G22

SE12 G21

S15 G21

S16 G25

S14 G24

S14 G26

S16 G28

S17 G31

S20 G29

S18 G27

S20 G28

S20 G30

S20 G28

S18 G33

S16 G27

S17 G24

S18 G27

S16 G20

1 day ago

NW20

NW22

NW16 G24

NW24 G31

NW26 G32

W22 G28

NW26 G32

NW17 G25

NW16

NW19 G23

NW17 G22

NW14 G19

W15

W14 G20

W14 G20

W16 G20

NW14 G18

W11 G17

NW8

S4

SE4

S7 G14

S5 G9

S8 G12

2 days ago

S6

S6

SE4 G7

SE4 G8

SE7 G11

S5 G11

SE5 G10

SE5 G8

NE5

N5

N18 G22

N12 G16

NW20

N11 G19

NW13 G16

NW11 G14

NW9

NW8 G11

NW6 G9

SE2 G6

S5

NW14

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	8 mi	24 min	S 11	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	41°F	25°F	53%	1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

Last 24hr

SE3

SE3

5

SE6

6

6

6

5

5

S10 G23

S17 G28

S14 G23

S13

S14 G21

S15 G23

S13 G19

S13

S15 G24

S12

S12 G19

S13

S12 G20

S12

S11

1 day ago

NW12

NW10

NW10 G17

NW12

NW13

NW11

NW12 G19

NW12 G18

NW12

NW11 G18

NW10 G17

NW10

W9

W6

Calm

Calm

SW5

S3

S4

Calm

Calm

Calm

SE3

SE4

2 days ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

E3

3

4

Calm

SE3

Calm

N5

NW6

N7

NW7

NW9

NW7

NW6

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)

      (on/off)   Help

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.