Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 071522 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1122 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few scattered showers today, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes to Central NY. High pressure will then build back into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend with mainly dry and warm weather. Monday will be very warm and humid before a weak cold front brings a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Weak disturbance moving through the region today may support a few showers over the Finger Lakes and portions of Southern Tier. Otherwise fair and pleasant with temps near normal.

Any showers will taper off from west to east tonight with departing disturbance. Clearing to lead to some valley fog.

High pressure over the region Saturday. This should guarantee fair dry weather in the west with only a slight chc for instability shower from Finger Lakes east.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Quiet weather with continued warming for the second half of the weekend with high pressure over the area to start the period, slowly migrating toward the East Coast by late Sunday night. Despite a weak upper level shortwave moving across the area Sunday, instability will remain in check, which should limit any diurnal shower/storm activity. Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend upward, with highs Sunday mainly in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Hot and humid conditions to start the work week, along with increasing chances for showers and storms, centered on Monday night and Tuesday.

A southwesterly return flow of much warmer, more humid air will ensue on Monday as surface high pressure slides off the East Coast. Expecting a mainly dry, hot and humid start to the week. However, a weak upper level impulse will approach from the central Great Lakes Monday afternoon. This feature combined with diurnal heating and increasing instability may be enough to pop a few storms across areas west of the Genesee Valley later in the day Monday. Otherwise, highs on Monday could reach ~90F across portions the lake plains, Genesee Valley and and northern Finger Lakes region. Given the increasing dewpoints to around 70F, could edge near or into low-end heat advisory criteria. At the least, apparent temps will reach the lower 90s across a good chunk of the lower elevations.

Heights aloft begin to fall off some Monday night, signaling the start of an unsettled period of weather for later Monday evening through Tuesday as upper level trough swings through. At the surface, primary cold front expected to cross late Monday night into Tuesday. Timing is a bit earlier than previous guidance has been advertising. Lead shortwave could bring a period of showers and storms in as early as Monday night, especially across western NY. Still looks like the best chance/greatest coverage for showers and storms will be on Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. Some of the storms Tuesday may be on the stronger side. That said, if the front moves through earlier in the day, this could limit chances for stronger storms, especially for western areas. This is just something that will need to be monitored going forward.

A few showers may linger through the first part of Tuesday night, before high pressure builds into the region, bringing a return to mainly dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. There are some indications in the latest guidance that the surface front may stall out somewhere across Pennsylvania during the mid week timeframe. There will also be weak troughing aloft during this time. Either of these features may be enough to spark a few showers/storms, especially during peak heating and/or if there are any stronger embedded shortwaves rotating through in the base of the trough which is certainly possible, but hard to pin down as this point.

The cooling behind the front will be much less notable than what we experienced this week as highs by the middle of next week only settle back into the lower to middle 80s. However, it will not be as humid as early in the week.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Fair VFR weather through this evening . although a few showers will be possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.

Later tonight . expect some patchy fog . especially in the valleys of the Srn Tier. The latter should become extensive enough for IFR conditions at KJHW after 08z.

Outlook .

Saturday . Local IFR in morning fog, otherwise VFR. Sunday through Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR possible.

MARINE. Northeast winds in the 12-15 knot range will continue today on Lake Erie, producing choppy conditions especially southwest of Sturgeon Point. Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. East to northeast winds will increase a little on Lake Ontario as well, with a light chop along the south shore of the lake. Light winds will return for Saturday as high pressure builds back into the eastern Great Lakes. A southwest wind will increase Sunday on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario, but conditions are expected to remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	3 mi	60 min	N 9.9 G 12	74°F			1020.7 hPa	58°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt	31 mi	90 min	NE 7.8 G 7.8	71°F	75°F		1021.1 hPa (-0.3)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY	49 mi	40 min	ENE 7.8 G 9.7	72°F	73°F		1021.1 hPa	63°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	59 mi	90 min	NE 9.9 G 13	71°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	60 mi	60 min		72°F			1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	8 mi	36 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	77°F	63°F	62%	1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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