Marine Weather and Tides
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 6:39AM||Sunset 8:26PM||Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:07 PM EDT (03:07 UTC)||Moonrise 10:07PM||Moonset 10:27AM||Illumination 70%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Snover, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kdtx 202327|
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
issued by national weather service grand rapids mi
727 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact terminal
locations in southeast michigan this evening with the activity
expected to end by 03z. Dry weather is expected overnight with the
potential for fog development around sunrise.
For dtw... Showers and thunderstorms will continue through about 0130
utc with dry weather expected for the overnight hours. Ceilings
around 2500 kft agl with storms with visibilities down around 2sm in
heavy rainfall. MVFR fog expected around sunrise. Westerly wind
develops Wednesday afternoon with gusts near 20 kts possible.
Dtw threshold probabilities...
* high confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet this evening, medium
confidence of MVFR visibilities due to fog around sunrise.
* high confidence in thunderstorms this evening.
Issued at 337 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
scattered showers and thunderstorms continue oriented southwest to
northeast along an area of subtle isentropic ascent and where
greatest moisture transport vectors have set up across the state. A
couple of moving pieces to note and watch out for heading into the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. To start, SPC rap guidance
and latest hi-res models hold CAPE between 1500 - 2000 j kg mainly
across the tri-cities area into the thumb (tied to increase moisture
surge) and a secondary area of higher CAPE up to 2000 j kg building
in across the southern metro area. Additionally, low-level lapse
rates AOA 7c km in conjunction with supportive tei profiles and
larger dew point depression spread at the surface help support the
idea of strong wind gusts to 40 mph, with a possible isolated
downburst to 60 mph. Hail cannot be completely ruled out as mid-
level lapse rates also hold around 7c km with effective bulk shear
around 25 knots.
Second, an MCV complex currently located over southern lake huron
and northern indiana has maintained a more east to west propagation,
contrary to many cams advertising a northwest to southeast
propagation. This system is also translating faster to the east
relative to the 12z hi-res output. Given that the MCV complex is
moving east into an area of high instability, there is a chance this
system will hold together and produce showers and thunderstorms for
the southern metro region centered between 20-04z. Prior to the
potential arrival of the mcv, amplification of a shortwave will allow
the nose of higher theta-e to fill in across the metro area between
20 - 00z, which will bring the chance to see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Overall the main message -- isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from flint up to the
tri- cities and thumb this afternoon, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances expanding across the metro area during the early
evening onwards. Low-level cap in place may help diminish activity
vs. The competing instability in place but the approaching MCV will
have to continue to be monitored as it travels east towards the cwa.
There will be a marginal risk for severe weather for all of SE mi,
mainly for wind gust concerns.
Pv anomaly (tied to the mcv) is projected to move east of the CWA by
06z Wednesday and will travel into new england by Wednesday
afternoon, leaving SE mi under zonal flow in the mid-levels.
Subsidence on the back side of the anomaly will allow for clearing
of cloud cover overnight, especially for the tri-cities and thumb
with more active subsidence in place. Did not include in this
forecast package due to uncertainty, but given residual
precipitation and moist boundary layer with the subsidence, will
need to watch for fog development overnight.
Upper-level closed low and developing surface low pressure system
will move east across ontario Wednesday into Thursday and will allow
a cold front to pull across SE mi sometime between Wednesday morning
- Wednesday afternoon and will bring the chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Will carry a chance of precipitation through the
passage of the front as atmosphere is relatively dry (1000-500 mb rh
aob 50%) and lack of overall synoptic forcing. Warm and humid
temperatures will be able to hold on through the afternoon with
highs in the 80s, but relief will fill in during the evening and
will lead to overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s and dp dropping
into the 50s.
Southern periphery of a high pressure system to fill in throughout
Thursday which will start an extended period of dry weather with
lower humidity and temperatures that are below the seasonal norm
with highs in the 70s.
Friday will be cloudy and cooler as upper level trough lingers over
the region. A cold front dropping through the state in advance of
canadian surface high pressure will keep clouds prevalent with
northerly flow but model soundings look very dry minimizing the rain
potential. Cool northerly flow continues Saturday into Sunday as the
surface high, centered to our north over ontario, slides east. An
amplifying mid level ridge axis will then pass over on Sunday
allowing southern return flow back into the state. After a few days
where highs only reach in the 70s, temps on Sunday should finally
rise back into the low 80s which is normal for late august. Next
shot for showers will hold off til around Monday when a strong mid
level wave and associate surface low lift through the northern
lakes. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the front will push
temperatures into the mid 80s Monday.
light southerly winds this evening will give way to northwest winds
tomorrow as a cold front drops south through the central great
lakes. A push of much cooler air over lake huron Wednesday evening
will result in winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots, with
brief slightly higher gusts possible over northern lake huron. Winds
will gradually diminish on Thursday into Friday as high pressure
nudges into the region from the northwest.
Dtx watches warnings advisories
Lake huron... None.
Lake st clair... None.
Michigan waters of lake erie... None.
discussion... Am drk
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|PSCM4||24 mi||67 min||SW 7 G 8.9||77°F||1031.2 hPa (+0.4)|
|HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI||35 mi||49 min||S 11 G 13||74°F||74°F||1013.3 hPa||71°F|
|FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI||42 mi||55 min||SW 5.1 G 14||71°F||1013.5 hPa||68°F|
|KP58||43 mi||76 min||SW 4.1||73°F||1011.6 hPa||70°F|
|MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI||44 mi||55 min||72°F||1013.3 hPa|
|SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI||47 mi||67 min||WSW 7 G 7||75°F||1012.2 hPa (-0.0)|
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI||24 mi||72 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||73°F||68°F||86%||1013.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KCFS
Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||Calm||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||SE||S||SW||Calm||E||E||Calm||Calm||S||S||S||S||S||SW||SW||SE||S||S||SW||SW||S||SW |
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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