Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 5:15 AM   Moonset 8:56 PM

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LHZ442 Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Mi- 953 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Rest of tonight - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 082341 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 741 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler on Thursday with rain expected south of M-59 and a chance north.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday.

AVIATION

Backdoor cold front is sweeping south out of the Thumb early this evening which will result in fairly abrupt wind shifts to the NE around or shortly after (1-2hrs) the start of the new TAF period.
Loss of diurnal mixing keeps winds under 15kts for the overnight period. Otherwise, VFR conditions with mainly mid/high cloud holds until Thursday morning when developing low pressure lifts out of the Ohio Valley towards the eastern Great Lakes. Increasing moisture advection into the region will see ceilings steadily decrease through Thursday morning. Main push of associated showers doesn't look to arrive until later half of the morning into the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000ft through tonight. High by mid Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

DISCUSSION...

A flattening shortwave ridge sliding over southern MI today in the wake of Wednesday's low has lead to a mostly sunny and mild day with temps well into the 70s. A lingering trough axis draped across northern lower this afternoon has lead to an enhance cloud field which will impact locations as far south as the northern Thumb, otherwise diurnal cu shouldn't last too long across the rest of the area. As temps attempt to drop off tonight, elevated clouds start filling in north of the stalled cold front just south of the state which will limit the mins to around 45-50 degrees.

Tonight marks the beginning of a bigger shift in the weather pattern as a very positively tilted trough drops out of eastern Canada while digging westward and phasing with the orphaned upper low over the northern Plains. Remnant mid level wave will then advance along the trough with a weak surface low tracking east along the front on Thursday. Moisture advection up the elevated portions of the front lingering over southern MI will result in a period of rainfall for most of the CWA Two main questions will be when does the rain move in and how far north will it extend? Most guidance suggests the lead edge of the deeper moisture will push north across the Ohio border after 06Z tonight with northerly flow feeding dry air in the lower levels beneath the stout low level inversion which will take some time to saturate. A narrow corridor of higher theta e air will advance north to around I94 while fgen flares up after about 15Z which should lead to more moderate showers. Fgen higher on the front makes it up to Saginaw but with a good deal of dry air still in the soundings up to 10kft. Even so, hires suite offers a good duration of light rain through the day so will hedge forecast a little to keep a slight chance or chance pop going up there for now. Rain will taper off after dark with the deformation pulling east away from the area. QPF up to around a third of an inch is expected.

Friday should be dry with another short wave ridge sliding SE through lower MI. Northerly flow will keep cool air filtering into the area keeping highs muted in the lower 60s. The next chance of rain comes Saturday as a narrow trough slides SE through the Great Lakes out of Canada. There will be a brief flip around to SW flow ahead of this system which may be able to bring a bit of moisture into the area, but PWATs are only expected to get just above a half inch. Light flow keeps shear minimal, less than 20 knots but there is some potential for a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE so can't rule out some thunderstorms. The progressive pattern brings ridging back for Sunday.

MARINE...

Weakening surface low has drifted well to our east, with its attendant cold front washing out overhead. For the Great Lakes, this has corresponded to winds veering to the north while stable open waters have kept gusts below 25 knots. Closer to the shoreline where land influence comes into play, winds may gust to around 30 knots before subsiding later this evening in which Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Elevated portions of the frontal boundary remain orphaned overhead to reactivate shower activity by Thursday morning across western Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair, with a slightly cooler airmass overhead once again introducing wind gusts to 25 knots Thursday afternoon. Weekend weather remains unsettled precipitation- wise owing to broad troughing aloft, but the overall wind field remains light.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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