Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Snover, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:07PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:49 PM EDT (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ442 Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Mi- 946 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers late in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ442 Expires:202007162115;;936565 FZUS53 KDTX 161346 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 946 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ442-162115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Snover, MI
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location: 43.42, -83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 161433 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1033 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

UPDATE.

Update this morning was to hold onto the clouds and showers just a bit longer. Wave was spinning just about on top of DTX at 14-15z. This should exit the forecast area around 18z with showers ending shortly there after. Plenty of clouds across Lower MI as well and pushed back any clearing until closer to 21 to 00z. Didn't change high temperatures as some partial clearing from 21z to 00z could still warm us up close to forecast highs. Just know that the day will be cool with the clouds with a jump in temps this evening with any very late day sun.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

AVIATION .

Shortwave trough and assoicated surface low pressure will pass the area this morning. Rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms south, will be on the downtrend as this forecast begins with just a few hours or shower activity remaining 12z-14z. Cigs looks to dip to MVFR with/in wake of the rain as the surface low tracks through far southern lower Michigan. Winds will begin with an easterly component this morning, but swing to northwest and west as the low passes. Dry air within this flow will bring VFR conditions late today and clear conditions by tonight.

For DTW . Rain with perhaps a brief thunderstorm will impact the terminal through 13z or 14z before moving east. Cigs will drop to MVFR as low level moisture is pulled east into the area with low pressure this morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in thunderstorms impacting the terminal through 14z or so.

* High in cigs aob 5kft this morning, medium this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 457 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

DISCUSSION .

Steadier elevated rain finally broke the CWA line, starting with Midland County, around 04Z with the forward progression of a previously stalled frontal boundary. The primary circulation responsible for the heavier rainfall rates expected later today remains well to the southwest (over northern IN). It will take most of the morning for this low to churn eastward, centered just south of the state line. This will delay the time-of-arrival for the heaviest precip to cross SE MI into the 10-16Z timeframe. In the meantime, favorable low-level convergence has focused activity along and north of the I-69 corridor ahead of the cold front with bands developing further south along the H7 jet.

H8-H7 moisture transport has been resolved in a less-robust capacity compared to earlier runs. However, low-level subsaturated air is quickly eroding from evaporative hydrometeors setting the stage for higher efficiency showers. The 16.00Z DTX sounding measured a PWAT value of 1.04 inches, but the original saturated layers that were confined near the CCL and within the H5-H3 layer now extend through the bulk of the column as advertised in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings. 00Z NCEP models and ECMWF solutions are all a bit weaker on the H8 low which will reduce the already minimal thunderstorm chances this morning, but also the intensity of precip whereas the H7 shortwave is a bit slower with its departure. Pulled daytime highs down a couple degrees given broad cloud coverage until late this afternoon. Expect dry conditions overnight with partly mostly clear skies and lows generally in the mid 60s as ridging arrives in quick succession.

Steering flow from the dominant upper low will clear further east on Friday with largely zonal flow aloft and stable conditions providing a dry weather day for Lower Michigan. Highs in the low 90s and muggier dewpoints looks plausible on Saturday with H7 heights running in the 90th percentile wrt to climatology. Low amplitude shortwave ripples will yield only limited opportunities for isolated pulse afternoon storms while the troposphere stays mostly capped overhead. A warm front then lifts north overnight providing limited relief as lows cool only into the low-mid 70s by daybreak.

Sunday presents hazardous weather potential for heat stress and strong to severe thunderstorms. Heat indices creep even higher for the Metro area Sunday afternoon with several hours of +100F values a real possibility. Some severe storms are expected as a high CAPE (+3000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moderate shear (+30 knots 0-6 km bulk) environment arises. A cool front moderates the column early next week with daily thunderstorm chances during the work week and temperatures within a few degrees of normal.

MARINE .

A low pressure system will continue to advance across the region today, bringing the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold front. Southerly winds will gradually become more northerly throughout the day as the low pressure system moves through the central Great Lakes. Wind gusts up to 15 knots are possible, particularly in the lower half of Lake Huron, although locally higher winds and waves are possible with thunderstorm activity. As the low exits the region tonight into tomorrow, winds will gradually back to the southwest and high pressure will begin to build into the Ohio Valley. This area of high pressure will persist into the weekend, before another low pressure system brings the chance for showers and thunderstorm later this weekend.

HYDROLOGY .

Rainfall has become more widespread this morning as low pressure tracks eastward, just south of the state line, and a cold front moves southeast with the progression of an upper level disturbance. Most areas will see rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches by this evening, while some areas focused along the I-96 corridor end up closer to 1.00 inch. Still expect any flooding concerns to be confined to low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially over urban locations. Basin average precipitation should remain low enough to prevent river flooding, but small rises on local rivers and streams will be possible.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . RBP AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . MV HYDROLOGY . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 24 mi49 min NNE 7 G 8 70°F 1033.2 hPa (-0.3)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 35 mi55 min 67°F
KP58 43 mi58 min E 6 70°F 1015.2 hPa65°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 47 mi49 min ENE 17 G 20 68°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi54 minENE 34.00 miHeavy Drizzle69°F67°F95%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S8S10SE10
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S8S8S4SE4SE4SE5SE4SE6SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E5NE3NE3
1 day agoS3S5SW5CalmSW6CalmCalmCalmE7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS5S6S7--S8
2 days agoN4N4NW5N4NW6NW3N3NE4E3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.