Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glasgow, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:34PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 2:41 PM PDT (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:25PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 821 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 5 pm pdt this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Today..S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 30 kt. Cape arago southward, S wind 25 kt...becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 14 ft at 15 seconds...building to 16 to 17 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Thu night..S wind 20 kt...becoming sw 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 16 to 17 ft. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers through the night.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 14 to 15 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind 15 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. NW swell 12 to 14 ft. Rain in the evening, then showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..W wind 20 kt...becoming sw 5 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 12 to 13 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft.
PZZ300 821 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front will move through the waters this afternoon and evening, producing strong south winds and steep to very steep seas. Winds should be strongest north of cape blanco. A long period west swell will bring high and steep to very steep seas beginning tonight and persisting through Thursday evening along with heavy surf and hazardous bar conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glasgow, OR
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location: 43.43, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 161546
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
846 am pdt Wed oct 16 2019

Discussion Rain arrives today courtesy of a cold front approaching
the coastal waters. A few hundredths of an inch has been observed
along the coast, but the majority of rainfall will occur later
this morning and spread into all west side valleys by mid-late
afternoon. Areas east of the cascades will see rainfall this
evening and overnight. We've updated the forecast this morning
with the latest data to provide additional detail on rain arrival
west of the cascades. Conditions this morning in northern
california show quite a contrast to the arriving rainfall, with
humidity values near 20 percent and gusty southerly winds. Fire
agencies have been notified of these conditions since fuels have
dried out over the past week.

The most significant weather impact this week will be Saturday when
a strong front and some moderate to heavy rain arrives. Please see
the previous discussion below for more details on the upcoming
active weather.

Aviation For the 16 12z tafs... From the cascades west... Thus far
conditions areVFR, but the front has begun moving on shore and
conditions will change quickly. The incoming front will bring areas
of MVFR CIGS with rain to the coastal waters and coast early
Wednesday afternoon with higher terrain likely becoming obscured
earlier. Also at the coast, wind shear is likely to be a problem.

The lower conditions and precipitation will spread inland to the
cascades and siskiyous by late Wednesday afternoon. The lower
conditions will prevail through Wednesday night. At medford and
roseburg the impact of wind shear was marginal and therefore excluded
from tafs. The directional change was present but speeds at both
locations were not quite meeting thresholds. Roseburg was the more
likely of the two locations to have it included at a later time
should the guidance trend toward higher wind speeds aloft.

East of the cascades...VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday
night, but gusty winds will develop by Wednesday afternoon and
persist into Wednesday evening. Areas of precipitation will develop
late Wednesday afternoon and persist through Wednesday night.

Marine Updated 800 am pdt Wednesday 16 october 2019... The first
in a series of fronts will move through the waters tonight,
producing gusty south winds and steep to very steep seas. Winds will
be strongest from CAPE blanco north and beyond 3 nm from shore.

Isolated areas of gales are possible. The greater threat will be
very steep seas, thus a hazardous seas warning remains in effect.

High and long period west to northwest swell will build into the
coastal waters Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Guidance
suggest swell heights peaking out between 16 and 18 feet at 16
seconds Thursday into Thursday evening before gradually diminishing
late Thursday night into Friday. A hazardous seas watch remains in
effect for this event as does a high surf advisory, and bar crossing
will become hazardous.

Small craft conditions are expected outside of the hazardous seas
warning and watch due to gusty winds and choppy wind driven seas
Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, then for the higher swell
Wednesday night through at least Thursday evening. For details on
all the hazards, please see mwwmfr.

Small craft advisory conditions may continue into the coming
weekend.

Prev discussion issued 540 am pdt Wed oct 16 2019
discussion...

southwest winds have become breezy to windy, with gusts in the 25
to 40 mph range, across the ridges of northwestern california and
southwestern oregon this morning ahead of an approaching cold
front. These winds are surfacing in the southern shasta valley in
the weed area this morning, with gusts 30 to 35 mph. We're also
seeing some gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range along the coast from
cape blanco southward and in the valley falls area.

While no rain has been reported by the many observations
available via mesowest in the past 3 hours, we do have high
confidence that the cold front will move onshore and strengthen as
it does so this morning. Dry air, with relative humidities in the
12% to 25% range will precede the front for most areas south and
east of the siskiyous. High resolution models suggest that
precipitation intensity is likely to increase as the front moves
inland today due to the combined effects of orographic forcing and
increasing frontal dynamics. One of these dynamics will be the
arrival of the right entrance region of a 105 knot 300mb jet max
along the coast and oregon cascades around 17 00z or 5 pm pdt
today. Also, precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5 inches west of
the coast at 12z 5 am pdt this morning will push inland along
the coast this morning. High resolution models suggest there are
likely to be two bands of rainfall that move across the interior
west side, especially in jackson county today- one this afternoon
and one this evening.

Southerly winds ahead of the front are not expected to reach
advisory levels at inland locations, but we do expect many areas
such as the ridges, shasta valley, and portions of the east side
to see gusts 30 to 40 mph ahead of the front today. Rainfall
amounts are likely to be 0.15" to 0.25" for most valley areas
west of winter rim and medicine lake through sunrise Thursday.

The oregon cascades, marble mountains, coastal mountains, and
hills west of these ranges are expected to receive 0.25" to 0.75"
of rain. The one exception is curry county, where some areas,
especially south of gold beach, could see 1 to 1.5 inches of
rainfall.

Thursday through Friday afternoon showers are expected mainly over
nw sections of the area, along with cooler temperatures around 10
degrees below normal for daytime highs. Snow levels are expected
to fluctuate with solar heating between 4500 and 6500 feet.

Friday night through Saturday we're likely to see what could be
termed the 'main event' of the storm series as a 150 knot 300mb
jet MAX arrives from the northwest. This will send even colder air
into the area along with more moisture resulting in a chilly and
wet Saturday. As the upper level cold pool dives southeastward
Saturday there will be a possibility of some rumbles of thunder
and small hail with some of the heavier showers that move through.

Daytime highs are likely to be around 15 degrees below normal for
mid-october, in the 45 to 55 degree range for most valley
locations. It's also likely to turn breezy in the afternoon and
evening hours, especially across the east side. We're likely to
need to put up a wind advisory for portions of the east side for
Saturday, too.

Snow level will come down Saturday afternoon and evening, into
the 4500 to 5500 foot range. 1 inch or greater snowfall amounts
are likely to be at elevations above 5kft, with the possibility of
6 inches to as much as 14 inches above 6kft elevations from
pelican butte northward in the oregon cascades.

The upper level trough is expected to wave northeastward with a
surface warm front Sunday. Generally light precipitation is
expected as snow levels between 3500 and 4500 feet rise rapidly up
to the peaks Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Early next week we'll be back on the other side of the roller
coaster, with highs rebounding into the 60s and 70s for most
valley areas.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
orz021-022.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... High surf advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
pzz350-356.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for pzz350-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for pzz350.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for
pzz370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 8 mi65 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 50°F1010 hPa
46128 19 mi41 min SSW 33 52°F 55°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 29 mi41 min 57°F13 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi45 minSSW 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW7W6SW5S5S5S3S3S8S8SE7SE5S5S7SE6SE5S6SE6S4CalmSE4E3CalmS14
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N16N11N10N11N4CalmS4S3S3--SE6CalmS3SE6SE8S5SE4SE8SE85SW5SE7S5
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Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:27 AM PDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:02 AM PDT     2.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:03 PM PDT     7.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:45 PM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.766.76.764.93.72.82.42.73.656.37.47.87.56.44.831.50.50.30.82

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.