Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glasgow, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday December 5, 2019 1:47 PM PST (21:47 UTC) Moonrise 1:49PMMoonset 12:42AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 831 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect from 1 pm pst this afternoon through Saturday morning...
Today..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft... Building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds... Subsiding to 2 ft at 11 seconds and nw 1 to 2 ft at 18 seconds after midnight.
Fri..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft. W swell 3 ft at 15 seconds...becoming 2 to 5 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. Mixed swell sw 4 to 5 ft and W 4 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to S 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft... Building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Mixed swell sw 5 to 6 ft and W 3 ft. Showers through the day. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Mixed swell sw 5 to 7 ft and W 3 ft. Showers.
Sun..S wind 5 kt...veering to sw in the evening, then...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 6 ft and W 3 ft...shifting to the W 5 ft and W 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt...veering to S in the evening, then...rising to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft after midnight. NW swell 6 ft.
PZZ300 831 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South winds will increase today ahead of an incoming front. Gales and very steep seas will develop tonight. The front will move onshore Friday, but another round of gales and very steep seas will quickly develop ahead of the next front, which will move onshore Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday night into Sunday morning. Relatively calm conditions are forecast for the first part of next week, but another front may move onshore next Tuesday or Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glasgow, OR
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location: 43.43, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 051728 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 928 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

DISCUSSION. Conditions haven't changed much from yesterday morning. A stable air mass is resulting in strong inversions and fog across most valleys this morning. We expect this fog to lift a little earlier than yesterday based on increasing winds aloft and some increased mixing. Winds will increase in the Shasta Valley and southern end of the Rogue Valley later today. These winds are in response to an approaching storm well offshore at this time. Please see the previous forecast discussion for details on this upcoming storm.

AVIATION. For the 05/18Z TAFs . Areas of valley IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog/freezing fog will clear to VFR this afternoon. The lower conditions will return to the Umpqua Valley and possibly the Illinois valley tonight into Friday morning, but increasing southeast winds will support continued VFR conditions over most of the rest of the area. Winds will continue to increase and will become quite gusty Friday. Precipitation will bring areas of MVFR cigs to the coastal waters and coast Friday.

MARINE. Updated 830 AM PST Thursday 5 December 2019 . South winds will increase today ahead of an incoming front. Gales and very steep seas will develop tonight. The front will move onshore Friday, but another round of gales and very steep seas will quickly develop ahead of the next front, which will move onshore Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday night into Sunday morning. Relatively calm conditions are forecast for the first part of next week, but another front may move onshore next Tuesday or Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 402 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019/

DISCUSSION . The latest satellite image shows low clouds and areas of fog for most, if not all of the interior valleys. The latest obs also confirm the low clouds and fog. This is expected to last for most of the morning with visibilities near or just under 1/4 mile west of the Cascades and a dense fog advisory remains in effect.

An upper low centered near 41N and 141W will be a play maker for our weather tonight through the weekend. The upper low will move towards our area over the next 24-36 hours.

We'll have one more dry day for most of the area. The exception will ne around the Mount Shasta area where upslope flow could help to contribute to some precipitation with slight chance of rain and higher elevation snow. Speaking of which snow levels Thursday are expected to be around 6000 feet, so that will keep it above the I-5 corridor and highway 89.

The operational models are slower with the arrival of the front and precipitation compared to yesterday at this time. Even the individual ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF are slower. Therefore adjustments were made to the forecast to hold off precipitation at the coast and westside locations until early Friday morning.

As the front moves closer to our area, mid level flow will increase and we can expect moderate to occasionally strong winds over the marine waters and along the coast, specifically south of Cape Blanco. However pressure gradients are not particularly strong, so were not anticipating high winds for this area.

Meanwhile 700 mb winds and favorable upper flow from the southeast late this afternoon through Saturday could contribute to moderate to strong winds in the Shasta Valley and south end of the Rogue Valley from about Medford down to Ashland. A wind advisory remains in effect for these areas. Please see NPWMFR for more details. The east side will be windy, but not until Friday afternoon through Saturday when stronger 700mb winds are expected to move overhead.

The front will move onshore Friday afternoon. However the upper and surface low will remain offshore through Saturday with plenty of moisture being advected in from the southwest. Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely for the coast, coastal mountains and south through southeast Siskiyou County during this time. Moisture-rich onshore flow with this system will produce plenty of precipitation in the area, especially for the usual areas, like the coast, coastal mountains and western through southern Siskiyou County. However the trajectory will be more southerly, so inland areas, especially the East Side, will be sheltered from the heaviest precipitation. We aren't concerned about hydrological hazards Friday night through Saturday night, because mainstem rivers and streams flows are very low. Some areas that could see some rising creeks and streams and ponding on water on roadways are the Curry County Coast where rain could be heavy at times and Southern Siskiyou County and areas east of the Cascades where significant rain will help melt snow and result in increased runoff.

Snow levels will generally be around 5500 feet, however they could lower down to around 5000 feet in areas of heavy precipitation, especially for the Mount Shasta area. Even then the bulk of the snow impacts should remain above the major passes. However portions of the Mt Shasta Ski Park, Everitt Memorial Highway around Mt Shasta, and Etna Summit on Sawyers Bar Road in Western Siskiyou County are likely to get impacted from the snow and several feet of snow are possible above 5500 feet, and a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect to highlight this potential. Please see WSWMFR for more details.

The upper level trough will make its way overhead Saturday night, then weaken and push off to the southeast Sunday. Moisture-rich onshore flow will still produce plenty of precipitation, especially for the usual areas, like the coast, coastal mountains and western through southern Siskiyou County.

Snow levels are expected to drop off to around 4500-5000 feet Saturday night into Sunday as precipitation tapers off and colder air aloft moves overhead. Expect significant snowfall, in the higher terrain of Siskiyou County. Snow is also expected for the Cascades, Warners, and the high terrain of the East Side, but amounts will be less.

Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity Sunday, then ridging and high pressure return by Monday. Along with clearing skies, temperatures are expected to warm slightly for Monday. The exception to this will be valley fog, typical for this time of year, which will keep some areas cool, and could easily stick around throughout the day.

There are timing differences between the operational EC and GFS with the trough moving onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday, but both agree that it will be a weak to moderate system. The EC moves the associated surface front onshore Tuesday afternoon, while the GFS moves it in Wednesday. Also the operational models show the upper level trough weakening as it moves east which is an indicator the front will also weaken as it moves east towards our area.

Note: The majority of the individual ECMWF ensemble means are also showing a dry solution, even at the coast, therefore made adjustments to keep the highest chance for rain at the coast and a slight chance for inland locations west of the Cascades.

The model solutions diverge Wednesday nigh into Thursday. The ECMWF shows a dirty ridge over the area, but with 500 mb height gradually increasing. The GFS shows a higher amplitude ridge over our area and showing a drier solution. For now the forecast is leaning towards the wet side, due in part to several of the ECMWF individual ensemble members showing measurable precipitation during this time. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ029-030. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023-024-026. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST Saturday for ORZ026.

CA . Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon above 5500 feet in the for CAZ082-083. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 8 mi71 min S 1.9 G 2.9 49°F1015 hPa
46128 19 mi47 min E 1.9 48°F 52°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 29 mi47 min 52°F7 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi51 minNNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F48°F80%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

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Last 24hrW4NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmSE6SE5SE5SE8SE5SE5SE6SE3SE6CalmE7SE3E5E5SE6SE6N3N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE5SE7SE7SE6NE3SE3SE7CalmSE5SE6SE6SE6SE4E3CalmW5
2 days agoN3CalmW3W3SE5SE6SE7SE6SE7SE9SE6SE7SE8SE7S5SE6SE10SE9SE8SE9SE7SE7SE4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
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Thu -- 12:21 AM PST     1.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:43 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:16 AM PST     6.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:35 PM PST     3.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:07 PM PST     5.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.82.43.34.55.66.46.86.76.15.34.33.63.13.13.444.75.35.55.44.843.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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