Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wallingford, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:27PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:53 PM EDT (01:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 6:30AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wallingford, VT
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location: 43.43, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 072323 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 723 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Clouds will increase tonight as a quick-moving low pressure system passes to our south across the southern tier of New York and northern Pennsylvania. There is a chance of light rain or snow across the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont along the northern fringe of this system during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. A coating to an inch of snow is possible across the higher elevations. A widespread rainfall is then expected during the daylight hours Thursday associated with a stronger cold front and associated gusty rain showers. As colder air moves in, higher elevation snow is possible Thursday night into Friday, especially across north-central into northeastern Vermont. Valley locations on Friday will see scattered rain showers, with cloudy conditions and highs mainly in the low to mid 40s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 723 PM EDT Tuesday . The forecast remains in good shape as of early evening. I did opt to adjust sky cover slightly upward this evening across southern and western counties per latest satellite trends. Otherwise no other changes were needed. Have a great evening!

Prior discussion . Mostly sunny skies prevail across the North Country this afternoon with just a few fair weather cumulus clouds dotting higher terrain areas visually and per GOES-16 visible satellite. Similar to yesterday, seeing valley highs 55-60F with dewpoints falling into the teens with deep PBL mixing. Minimum RH values this afternoon have fallen into the 15 to 25% range. Ongoing NW winds around 10 mph, with a few gusts 15-20mph, should drop off rather abruptly toward sunset with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. Have seen some local lake breeze conditions around PBG (winds east around 10 mph), and those winds will also trend light and variable early this evening.

Tonight, we'll be watching the compact shortwave trough across the northern Great Lakes drop sewd in prevailing WNWLY 850-500mb flow. It continues to appear that the main area of large-scale forcing will pass just south of our forecast area. Thus, looking at just in increase in mid-upper level cloudiness across central/nrn VT and far nrn NY. A bit further south, could see some light rain/snow across the Adirondacks sewd into Rutland/Windsor counties associated with northern fringe of precipitation. May see a coating to an inch of snow between 09-12Z across the higher elevations of the srn Greens - including around Killington Peak - and across Essex County VT. Otherwise, no impacts. Lows will generally range from the low- mid 30s, except possibly in the upper 20s across far nrn/nern VT where thinner cloud cover is anticipated.

System departs quickly on Wednesday leaving a relatively quiet period of weather with partly sunny skies. Should see aftn highs back into the mid 50s and northerly winds again 5-10 mph. Anticipate increasing clouds again during Wed ngt, along with S-SE winds in advance of a more vigorous nrn stream shortwave trough approaching from the Great Lakes. Appears precipitation will mostly hold off until after daybreak Thursday, but did include a chance of -RW across Franklin NY and St. Lawrence counties toward sunrise. Lows Wednesday night mainly in the 30s. Should see temperatures leveling off or even slowly rising after midnight with developing S-SE winds and increasing clouds, especially from the Champlain Valley westward.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday . Everything remains on track with a potent cold front expected to swing across the North Country during the day on Thursday. There have been some noticeable changes, however, with some of the details all stemming back to the low pressure tracking up the St. Lawrence Valley. The low now appears to be weakening instead of strengthening as it moves through the valley. All of the 12Z deterministic guidance is showing the best upper level support and shortwave energy shifting offshore and feeding a low pressure system that will rapidly develop as it moves inland over coastal Maine Thursday evening. Because of this, the upper level support looks a little less dynamic that it has in the past few days which has resulted in temperatures being a degree or two warmer on Thursday than in the previous forecast. While it doesn't have much impact on the overall forecast, it does look like any snow on Thursday will be reserved for locations well about 2000 ft.

Precipitable water values on Thursday will range from 0.4 to 0.6 inches which is slightly above seasonal normals but nothing really to write home about. The aforementioned low taking aim at Maine will shunt the main moisture axis well to our south and east which will severely limit our moisture. Nevertheless, there are still strong dynamics driven by a very cold pocket in the mid to upper levels. This should help to maximize precipitation efficiency as the steepening lapse rates throughout the day allow for the showers to become more convective and stronger with time. The only limiting factor to rainfall amounts will be with how progressive the system will be. Under the aid of a strong upper level jet, most places look like they could see 6 or so hours of steadier showers before things become more scattered. Rainfall totals should be pretty uniform on Thursday with most locations seeing around a half of an inch of rain. With the progressive nature, it now looks like all the majority, if not all, showers will taper off during the mid to late evening hours on Thursday. However, we will see snow showers redevelop as we head toward Friday morning as upslope northwesterly flow couples with steep mid level lapse rates to produce snow showers across the western slopes of the Adirondack and Green Mountains.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday . Friday will be a dreary and damp day across the North Country as we remain underneath to trough axis. The aforementioned upslope snow showers will gradually transition over to rain showers during the morning hours as temperatures gradually warm into the low to mid 40s. Any snow accumulations at lower elevations would likely be less than an inch and would likely melt as temperatures warm and rain falls on the morning snow. It won't be until Saturday morning that we finally see these showers begin to taper off but any glimpses of sun will be far and few as there should still plenty of moisture lingering within the boundary layer. The good news is that Saturday does look less wet than it had yesterday. Sunday continues to look dry with an extension of the mid level ridge trying to nose across the region. This will also allow temperatures to warm back above seasonal normals with pockets of sun from mid morning through mid afternoon before clouds cover once again increases ahead of the next system.

Models are beginning to come into better agreement for precipitation on Monday but there is still a lot to be decided. At this time, it looks like there will be two separate low pressure systems with one tracking across the Great Lakes and one off of coastal New England. This would keep the North Country on the "drier" side as we remain between these two system but any slight deviation in track could bring us into another very wet period. We have covered this with some chance to likely PoPs in the grids and this can be tuned in subsequent forecast packages as the situation evolves. Regardless of the overall solution, we are looking at a warm pattern where any precipitation we see on Monday and Tuesday would fall in the form of rain.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 00Z Thursday . VFR expected through the forecast period. Mid and upper cloud cover to trend BKN/OVC in 00-10Z time frame as low pressure passes to our immediate south. Could see a few rain/higher elev. snow showers across far southern/southwestern counties in the 09-14Z time frame as this feature passes with a brief light shower possible at KRUT. In general however, all terminals will remain dry. Winds light and variable overnight, trending northerly 4-8 kts after 12Z Wednesday as skies trend SCT VFR at selected terminals by afternoon.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Definite SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . JMG/Banacos SHORT TERM . Clay LONG TERM . Clay AVIATION . JMG/Banacos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT8 mi58 minSE 310.00 miFair45°F26°F48%1006.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRUT

Wind History from RUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmN3CalmSE4CalmCalmS3CalmSW4E3CalmCalmW3W5W4W3NW5NW6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Tue -- 05:15 AM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:52 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.11.22.84.25.15.65.44.53.22.21.20.3-00.72.33.855.65.74.93.72.51.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 05:07 AM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.434.35.25.75.34.33.121.10.2-00.92.545.15.75.64.73.52.41.40.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.