Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wells, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 5:39PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:19 AM EST (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wells, VT
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location: 43.43, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 270849 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 349 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak frontal system will bring light snow changing to a mix then rain to the region today. Sunday will be mostly dry as weak high pressure moves by. Another front will pass through the area on Monday with rain and snow showers in the morning, but a stronger Arctic cold front will bring snow showers or squalls later Monday. Temperatures trend mild into Monday morning before falling with much colder air later Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate once again for the rest of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 303 AM EST Saturday . A wide range of temperatures early this morning as sheltered areas are quite cold while other locations are feeling the warming effects of the southerly gradient and strong warm advection. This warm advection associated with a weak warm front will push through the area today with a 4-6 hour window of mainly light precipitation, mainly from mid morning through mid to late afternoon. Soundings suggest that this will mainly be a light snow to light rain event, though still a chance a brief period of mixed light sleet or freezing rain across the northern SLV and Green mountains eastward. Any icing threat appears minimal, though will maintain a few spots with light totals less than a tenth of an inch in the mountains. A weak occluded front moves through during the afternoon and evening and precipitation tapers off from west to east rather quickly. Snow totals generally an inch or less in the broad valleys and 1-2" elsewhere. Temperatures will be on the rise through the day with late high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

It will be a mild evening as temperatures hold in the 30s to around 40 for the first part of the night. Conditions to trend dry overnight as a weak axis of high pressure traverses the area but can't rule out some higher elevation rain or snow showers for the first part of the night. Variable clouds will likely linger in the mountains with the broad valleys trending partly cloudy as lows hold on the mild side in the 20s to around 30.

A ridge of high pressure will be over the region to start off Sunday with clouds increasing from southwest to northeast during the afternoon in the day in advance of warm advection associated with another frontal system. There is a chance of mainly light rain showers late afternoon to early evening to the south and west of BTV as high temperatures remain mild in the lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 311 AM EST Saturday . A very changeable period of wx anticipated with much above normal temps on Sunday Night, followed by much colder air by Monday Night associated with arctic boundary. First, southerly 850mb jet of 45 to 50 knots will help advect very warm air into our cwa on Sunday Night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps btwn 2c and 4c. Temps should remain steady in the mid 30s to lower 40s ahead of first boundary which will approach our cwa around 06z and move thru cpv btwn 09z-12z Monday. This feature will be associated with a brief period of mainly rain showers, ending as some snow acrs the trrn on Monday morning. QPF generally a tenth or less, given lack of deep layer moisture and limited llvl convergence. Temps Monday will be tricky with llvl caa developing behind first boundary with progged 925mb temps dropping btwn -6c and -9c, but some sunshine associated with dry slot may offset caa some. Either way have temps falling slightly back to seasonable levels by midday.

Meanwhile, potent 5h short wave energy associated with arctic boundary swings acrs our cwa btwn 21z and 06z Monday Night. Soundings show steepening llvl lapse rates under strong caa, with sfc based cape values in the 50 to 200 j/kg range. In addition, 925mb fgen is present and locally developed snow squall parameter is btwn 2-4 range, highlighting the potential for convective snow showers with a few snow squalls. Still some uncertainty on overall snow squall threat given timing of boundary during the evening hours and amount of llvl instability ahead of cold front. Snow accumulations will be limited by fast movement of boundary, along with areas of blowing snow, but a quick inch or two is possible in the most persistent snow shower activity. Another aspect is strong pres rise couplet of 12 to 14 mb rise in 6 hours occurs behind fropa, along with 850mb jet of 45 to 50 knots, with soundings showing good mixing of winds toward the sfc. Expect northwest winds 15 to 30 with gusts up to 40 mph likely, with localized gusts to 50 mph possible on Monday Night behind boundary. ECMWF mean 10m wind gusts show 49 mph at both MVL and MPV is possible with 41 mph at BTV, with 90 to 100% prob of sfc gusts >34 knots, but under 10% prob for gusts >50 knots. Progged 925mb temps drop to -20C by 12z Tues, while 850mb temps range btwn -24c and -28c by morning, support lows -10F to +10F acrs our cwa, with bitterly cold wind chill values.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 311 AM EST Saturday . Core of coldest 925mb to 850mb temps are acrs our cwa around 12z Tues, along with strong 850mb winds of 40 to 50 knots. A very cold and blustery Tues morning is expected with increasing amounts of sunshine and decreasing winds anticipated by aftn. In addition, northwest winds and pw values falling to 0.10, any lingering mtn snow shower activity will quickly end on Tues morning. Highs generally single digits mtns to mid/upper teens in the warmest valleys. Narrow high pres axis crests acrs our cwa on Tues evening, before southerly winds and llvl waa develops by Weds. Temps will fall quickly on Tues evening, before rising aft midnight, making for tricky low temp fcst. Expecting a wide range in values from -10F to +10F, depending upon location/elevation. The rest of the extended looks relatively quiet with temps warming back above normal on Weds and continuing for Thurs with mainly dry conditions. Some uncertainty on timing of our next system for late week and amount of trof amplification, but have kept temps close to blend and have mainly dry fcst.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Through 06Z Sunday . VFR through 12Z as high pressure departs east with just some high clouds moving into the region overnight. Winds variable and generally less than 10 kts through the overnight. After 12Z warm front moves into the region with widespread light snows/rains developing southwest to northeast in the 12-15Z time frame. Conditions lower to IFR/MVFR in this time frame,during which enhanced southerly low-level wind shear from 35-45 kt is expected at all terminals. From 21-03z look for an improvement to VFR as precipitation ends from west to east across the area as a weak occluded front and drier air moves into the area and winds shift to westerly.

Outlook .

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible with a chance -SHRA late. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sisson NEAR TERM . Sisson SHORT TERM . Taber LONG TERM . Taber AVIATION . Sisson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT15 mi24 minESE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F18°F66%1026.5 hPa
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY23 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast20°F16°F85%1027.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRUT

Wind History from RUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW6NW5NW5NW6CalmN55NE4NE34NW4S3E5E9SE5SE9SE12SE7SE10SE8SE10SE9SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 05:02 AM EST     4.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     5.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.11.12.53.74.54.84.43.52.41.50.80.20.21.12.84.35.25.75.54.63.32.11.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 04:54 AM EST     4.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:26 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:08 PM EST     5.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.32.83.84.54.84.33.32.21.40.70.20.21.434.45.35.75.44.43.121.10.3

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.