Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 1:14 AM   Moonset 9:30 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 300224 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
After light showers earlier today, more widespread precipitation is expected across the region late tonight night into tomorrow with showers likely, followed by another batch of afternoon showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Quieter weather is expected for the latter half of the week, with a warming trend across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1022 PM EDT Monday...No changes with this forecast update as the first round of upcoming showers is still several hours away from moving into the Champlain Valley. Mesoanalysis shows a stable environment currently situated over northern New York which could limit or prevent any thunderstorm potential this evening.

Previous Discussion...After some light showers earlier in the day, a brief lull in precipitation is expected this evening before the next round of precipitation associated with a warm front enters the region. Overnight low temperatures will be seasonably mild, generally in the 40s, due to increased cloud cover associated with the incoming precipitation.

Precipitable water values with this system will near or exceed an inch, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as a plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance is still a little uncertain in regards to where the axis of the heaviest precipitation sets up, whether across northern New York or a bit further north of the international border. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible with some elevated instability, although it looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings and the latest CAM guidance. With some trees still dormant and lingering summit level snow, there could be some areal flooding on low lying farm fields, poor urban drainage basins, and across ditches. Precipitation will continue into Tuesday night, although it will begin to decrease in areal coverage.

A large temperature gradient is expected Tuesday afternoon, with portions of the Northeast Kingdom struggling to warm above 50 while portions of the St. Lawrence Valley warm into the mid 60s. Fairly mild overnight lows are in store Tuesday night with lingering precipitation and cloud cover, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather is generally expected for the latter half of the work week with lower precipitation chances, but showers cannot be ruled out for Wed/Thu. Lingering low level moisture combined with an increase in PWATs and a shortwave passing north of the border through central Quebec may provide enough support for a few showers Wednesday, and another stronger shortwave following a similar path though perhaps a little farther south with do the same Thursday afternoon. Best chances Wednesday will be across central/southern zones, while the chance will exist more across northern areas Thursday. Both days are by no means a wash out, with expected QPF less than a tenth of an inch each day.
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the period with highs mid/upper 50s north to lower 60s south, but temperatures will trend much warmer for the next few days with 925mb temps in the plus teens Celsius supporting highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Friday will be the pick of the week with an upper ridge directly overhead and no precipitation expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Looking into the upcoming weekend, surface high pressure and upper level ridging look to remain in place through much of Saturday which will keep precipitation chances low and likely decay shortwave energy ejecting out from a strongly occluded low moving north through the western Great Lakes. Better chances for showers comes Saturday night onward as the ridge breaks down and additional shortwave energy moving east from the Great Lakes will interact with a modest stream of enhanced PWATs with origins from the Gulf of Mexico. At this time is appears the highest PWATs >1.5" will remain south of the region across the mid-Atlantic states, so the risk for heavy rain remains low. Temps through the period remain fairly close to normal with highs mainly in the 60s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through 09Z when rain is expected to move into northern New York from the west. Conditions will deteriorate through the morning thereafter with widespread MVFR ceilings becoming entrenched across the region on Tuesday. On and off showers are expected through the day Wednesday but should be light enough that we don't see visibilities drop below 6SM. There will be a few embedded rumbles of thunder as well but these will be far and few between. Wind will be light and variable through 09Z before winds shift to the south in the 5 to 12 knot range.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
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Albany
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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