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FXUS61 KBTV 060251 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 951 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Thursday along with intermittent periods of light snow showers or flurries. A warming trend begins Friday and continues through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, especially on Sunday. A potentially strong storm system will move into the region Sunday afternoon, bringing rain and gusty to possibly strong and damaging winds Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
950 PM UPDATE...

Main change with this update was to introduce isolated flurries or light snow showers across much of the region late this evening as webcams show flakes flying through the air. No accumulation other than a festive coating on grassy surfaces or locally slick conditions on untreated surfaces. RAP analysis shows a subtle 1019 mb surface low minima in the vicinity. With 925-850mb temperatures around -8 to -11C and the boundary layer remaining moist from the recent precipitation, it is just enough for snow growth to occur. In addition, due to the lingering low-level moisture, clouds have limited the radiational cooling so adjusted the overnight minimum temperatures slightly upward.
Where we do clear out however, could still fall into the single digits given the most widespread snow cover we have so far this winter.

FORECAST DISCUSSION...

Generally quiet and non-impactful conditions are expected through the period with the main focus of weather across the North Country and Vermont being the passage of an upper trough currently over the Great Lakes. Several pieces of shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough will have the potential to produce some light precipitation, though the majority should remain south of our region where the best upper level support and deep moisture overlap. This afternoon though, we are seeing a little lake effect response from the Tug Hill up into the Adirondacks, and some of these light snow showers and/or flurries will likely continue to affect the Adirondacks overnight, possibly drifting into central/southern Vermont for a short period. After sunrise though, surface high pressure building south through Quebec will help to dry out the mid and eventually low levels with any precipitation ending, and skies clearing through the day from north to south. This will set up favorable conditions for a very cold night across the region Wednesday night with mostly clear skies and light winds supporting temperatures falling into the single digits and teens above zero. For tonight, lows will remain cool but closer to normal in the teens north to mid 20s south, and highs Wednesday will be similar to today in the low/mid 20s north to low 30s south.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 317 PM EST Tuesday...Warm, moist air will advect into the forecast area Thursday, allowing some snow showers to develop off Lake Ontario, falling upon portions of St. Lawrence County.
Otherwise, a cold (5-10 degrees below normal) and partly to mostly cloudy day is expected. Highs will be in the 20s for the Greens east, closest to surface high pressure, as well as 20s the Adirondacks and northern Champlain Valley. Elsewhere anticipating the lower 30s. Up to an inch of snow forecast for northern New York, highest in southwestern St. Lawrence County.

Thursday night, mid to upper level ridging will move into the region, gradually shutting off the lake effect snow machine. There could be some lingering flurries, but a generally dry night is forecast. Despite this ridging, clouds are expected to increase from west to east. Lows will be in the single digits for the Northeast Kingdom (most likely to have some clear spots) to upper 20s in the St. Lawrence Valley (cloudiest area). Most areas between these two extremes will be in the teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 317 PM EST Tuesday...Mid/upper ridging will keep conditions dry for the late week. Under this ridging and with southerly surface flow, temperatures will steadily rise into the lower 30s-lower 40s Friday to as high as the upper 40s for some Saturday, near 10 degrees above normal. Lows will also be mild and above normal in the lower 20s to mid-30s. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next storm system.

Focus then shifts to said storm system, which could bring precipitation (most likely rain with some mountain snow), gusty winds due to a low level jet roaring overhead at 60-70 knots, and melting snow with elevated temps and dew points. Temperatures Sunday will peak impressively in the 50s, so during the day, even the summits would have mainly rain. At this time, models are coming into fairly good agreement with low pressure crossing the Great Lakes Sunday then progressing across Ontario and Quebec to our north into Monday. Meanwhile, a coastal low looks to develop on some models, and the latest GFS run puts a particular emphasis on this low, making it stronger and closer to the area than the 00Z run. The latest GFS run is also pulling the breaks a bit, showing a more reasonable and slower storm progression.

Ensemble river forecasts are showing increasing confidence in some potential minor flooding across the region as median percentiles now surpass minor flood stage for the Winooski, Mad, and Ausable rivers, as well as Otter Creek. At other spots, median percentiles continue to approach minor flood stage. We'll continue to monitor the potential for heavy rain, snow melt, and river flooding as the event gets closer and we narrow down temperatures and forecast rainfall amounts.

Another potential impact will be winds. We may need a Lake Wind Advisory out for periods on Sunday and Monday, after a cold frontal passage associated with the system. In addition to winds on Lake Champlain being elevated, summits would be quite miserable with the 850mb jet, and downsloping winds are possible on the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks. Additionally, southwesterly flow up the St. Lawrence Valley is expected to be brisk on Monday, especially if the ECMWF is correct in its deepening low placement directly to the northwest of our area into Monday. Currently forecasting widespread gusts to 25-35 mph and higher on summits.

After the surge of warmth, temperatures will gradually fall again into next week following the frontal passage, with highs back in the 30s and 40s. There could also be some lingering showers behind the system.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...MVFR ceilings will largely prevail through the period with occasional breaks to VFR, currently observed at SLK and RUT. Chances of IFR conditions at any terminal are too low to mention during the period, but cannot be ruled out, especially in the 10Z to 15Z period before low clouds begin to scatter. At the same time, flurries or light snow showers could accompany the lower clouds and help produce brief IFR conditions, especially at EFK/SLK. Skies should more rapidly clear after 18Z with VFR conditions currently favored late in the period at all sites. Winds will remain light through the period, mainly northerly at 8 kts or less during the daytime hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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