Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wells, VT

KEY MESSAGES
As of 234 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Dry and calm conditions will continue this afternoon into tomorrow with high pressure overhead. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and Friday with broad troughing approaching the region.

2. Bermuda high set up will keep our region warm and with chances for showers from Friday night through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
As of 234 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Tranquil weather is expected to continue tonight into tomorrow with high pressure in place overhead. Skies will remain clear and dry this evening into tonight with lows overnight in the upper 50s to low 60s. A few more protected valleys in the Adirondacks and NEK could see some lower 50s tonight with better radiational cooling. Tomorrow will be equally as pleasant as today, though with slightly more terrain driven fair weather cumulus. Our area of high pressure will shift a little south and east allowing for better southerly flow and moisture advection. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today in the mid to low to mid 80s.
Dewpoints will also be on the increase around 60. In the decoupled valleys tonight some patchy fog may be possible.

Our calm pattern will erode by Thursday. A Bermuda high responsible for our calm weather today will begin to shift slightly to the south with the return of troughing. Broad cyclonic flow by the end of the week will allow for better moisture advection into the region with a few shortwaves moving through. Temperatures Thursday will rise into the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints around 70 degrees. Heat indices will rise into the upper 80s to around 90 as a result. There does not look to be any real defined boundary for shower activity, but shortwaves Thursday and Friday look to bring enough energy to support shower and thunderstorm chances both afternoons. CAMs denote terrain instability around 1000-1500J/kg with around 20-30 knots of shear. CAPE and shear profiles will be supportive of a few thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. Should ingredients align Thursday, there is a chance for some stronger storms, primarily in northern New York, given good instability. Weaker shear profiles do lend some uncertainty to the strength of any storms in addition to weaker mid level lapse rates. By Friday, southwesterly flow and shear will increase to 30-40knots with similar instability levels, expanding into the northern Champlain Valley as well. Afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly over the terrain. A few stronger storms Friday may also be possible, especially with better shear and mid level lapse rates. Any storms will wane with the loss of diurnal heating in the evenings.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Bermuda high remains in place through the entirety of the extended portion of our forecast from Friday night through Tuesday. This will mean warm temperatures and active weather for northern New York and Vermont. Current model predictions are for Saturday to be the wettest day of the period, and Sunday to be the warmest. Tough to time fine scale features this far out without a significant synoptic feature. But, there are indications that upper level troughs and shortwave energy passing through will bring chances for showers more days than not. Looking further out we could have a pattern change towards the end of next week. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s for the extended period.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...Very quiet aviation forecast today with mainly clear skies in place across the region as well as light winds. May see some fog formation in the typically fog prone spots from 06-13z. For now only included some BR at SLK and MPV.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Numerous SHRA, Scattered TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.