Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:45PM Friday April 10, 2020 9:34 AM EDT (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202004101515;;871156 Fzus51 Kbuf 101022 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 622 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-101515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 622 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Today..West winds to 30 knots. Rain and snow showers, mainly this morning. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight..West winds diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then rain Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 43 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 101125 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 725 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Rain and snow showers will be accompanied by gusty winds and chilly temperatures today. Most areas will pick up at least a coating of wet snow with several additional inches of accumulation possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and the Eastern Lake Ontario region. High pressure builds in to start the weekend providing dry weather on Saturday. A warm front will then approach from the Ohio Valley bringing much warmer temperatures for the second half of the weekend, but also the chance for a few showers. A strong storm system will then track just west of the region later Sunday night into Monday bringing rain and the threat of very strong to potentially damaging winds to portions of the area from Monday afternoon through at least the first half of Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Overall coverage of rain and snow shower activity continue to increase this morning as the next potent shortwave pivots south toward NYS around the back side of an upper level low that is centered across Northern New England, providing moisture enhancement along with additional lift. 850mb temperatures hovering around -6C to -8C will continue to support lake/orographic enhancement for favored westerly flow higher terrain areas this morning, shifting to more northwesterly this afternoon. As a result this will bring an additional round of accumulating snow to most locations today. Higher terrain may remain all snow today, while other areas see more rain start to mix in throughout the day. Several inches of additional snowfall will be possible across the higher terrain south and southeast of Buffalo, as well as the Tug Hill and western Dacks. An inch or less is expected elsewhere for the most part, with a few interior spots possibly seeing a couple additional inches. The bulk of the snowfall will occur during the first half of the day before mid level moisture is stripped away behind the departing shortwave and strong April diurnal effects start to play a role.

It will remain windy today, as a tight pressure gradient remains across the area. Continued cold advection and mixing of a 40-50kt low level jet will bring peak wind gusts of near 40 mph to the majority of the area, with stronger gusts to advisory level of 45-50 mph likely along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, a chilly day on tap with highs in the lower to mid 30s across the higher terrain, and upper 30s to very low 40s elsewhere.

One final shortwave will pass over the region tonight. This will help to support some leftover light rain and snow showers mainly east and southeast of Lake Ontario. An additional light accumulation of an inch or less will be possible, mainly across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Low temperatures will mainly be in the mid and upper 20s, with lower 30s across the lake plains and along the lakeshores.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. . Damaging Winds possible northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Monday afternoon and evening .

This period will start off benign enough . as high pressure nosing north over our region from the Carolinas Saturday morning will drift off the Southeast coast during the course of the day. Subtle hgt rises associated with the sfc high will guarantee enough subsidence to supply the vast majority of our region with fair dry weather . although there could be some light lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario during the early morning hours. Otherwise at least partial sunshine will combine with weak warm advection to encourage our temperatures to climb into at least the mid 40s for the bulk of the region . with readings peaking in the upper 40s to near 50 in the Genesee valley and valleys of the Srn Tier.

A relatively flat ridge will approach the region Sunday night . while a southerly flow in the lower levels will become established. A tightening baroclinic zone will then take shape over the Lower Great Lakes as a result of the ensuing warm advection. This will lead to increasing clouds during the course of the night with enough lift near the lakes to support some sprinkles or nuisance light mixed rain/snow showers. The bulk of the region though should stay pcpn free.

On Sunday . ongoing cyclogenesis over the southern Plains will amplify the aforementioned ridge over the Lower Great Lakes. This will push the first of two warm frontal boundaries over our forecast area. The result will be a wealth of clouds and possibly a few light showers . although the day will be characterized more by the notably higher temperatures. Model consensus suggests that H85 temps will climb to +6c in the wake of the warm front for the western counties. This will support afternoon highs within a few degrees of 60 for the western counties . while a southerly flow should cancel any attempt for cooling lake breezes. It will also add a couple degrees due to downsloping for areas north of the NYS Thruway between BUF and SYR. Meanwhile the mercury will top out in the mid 50s for much of the North Country.

Conditions will SIGNIFICANTLY deteriorate from this point.

An intense southern stream shortwave will continue to support strong cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley and mid western states Sunday night . as a somewhat broad 992mb sfc low will track northeast and deepen to roughly 982mb by the time it reaches Lower Michigan by daybreak Monday morning. An impressive 65 to 70kt low level jet racing northwards ahead of the strengthening cyclone will impinge a second warm frontal boundary that will push across our region during the course of the night. The associated lift will guarantee a widespread soaking rain over our forecast area . particularly during the second half of the night. As is typically the case with these scenarios . attention will have to be given to the Chautauqua ridge and the north/northeast facing slopes of the Tug Hill for strong downslope winds. The southeast flow could also funnel relatively strong winds through the Black River valley Otherwise. temps will experience a non-diurnal trend with the strengthening southerly flow pushing the mercury back up into the low to mid 50s by daybreak.

The very powerful cyclone will then pass by to our west and north during the day Monday. This is a very favorable track for high winds for much of our forecast area . and this event will certainly be no exception In fact. there are suggestions that this could be a high end event with wind gusts possibly exceeding 70 mph for the IAG Frontier. The various forecast packages have been unusually consistent from run to run and with each other during the past couple of days . thus adding confidence to what could be a very concerning . relatively long duration high wind event.

The sfc low is still being advertised to deepen to roughly 970mb by the time it passes north of Georgian Bay by Monday evening . while a 70-80 kt low level jet will scream across Lake Erie and the IAG Frontier within the cold advection in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage. The front is forecast to plow through the region during the midday hours. The dangerously high winds just off the surface will have a relatively easy time mixing to the sfc within the cold advection . as lapse rates are expected to reach nearly 7 deg c/km through the height of the low level jet and a distinct dry slot should encourage enough clearing for added diurnal mixing. For what its worth . the MEX guidance is suggesting SUSTAINED winds of 43/44 knots at KBUF and KIAG respectively. That is extremely impressive . especially given the specific MOS package. Fully expect high wind watches to be issued later today . giving the current wind advisories time to either drop off or to be cancelled. Will hit the wind threat hard in the HWO product.

Otherwise . rain found ahead of the front in the morning will quickly drop off to just a few scattered showers in its wake. There may even be a few thunderstorms across southern sections as the front pushes through. Any such thunderstorm will carry the risk of transporting damaging winds to the surface.

While the strongest winds will be found from Lake Erie and the IAG to Rochester and the Thousand Islands Monday afternoon and evening . winds will be very slow to drop off Monday night. Most of the region will still experience gusts over 40 mph for a good chunk of the night . with gusts over 50 mph likely in the usual high wind corridor outlined above. The strong winds will be accompanied by a return to much colder weather that will support some lake effect rain and snow showers east-northeast of both lakes.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tuesday, it will be noticeably colder behind the front where daytime highs will peak in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Additionally, cyclonic flow around the low to our northwest will provide blustery and chilly conditions with some scattered rain showers, possibly mixed with snow across the higher terrain. With that said, as was previously mentioned it also won't be out of the realm of possibilities that there could be some lake enhanced snows northeast of the lakes. Lake temperatures currently are in the +3C/+4C range and with forecasted H850T of -8C/-9C this will likely support some lake response and possibly some snowfall accumulations. However, April diurnal influences will come into play as we progress through the day Tuesday. Also, there isn't a lot of deep synoptic moisture wrapping in across the eastern Great Lakes with this system. Right now, it's worth keeping an eye on as we move forward.

Wednesday and Thursday, not much will change as cyclonic flow will continue to filter in a cold Canadian air mass across the Lower Lakes. Embedded shortwaves within the cyclonic flow aloft and the mid level cold core aloft will keep the threat of rain and snow showers in the forecast. It will stay cold enough aloft so the pcpn chances will be enhanced east of both lakes.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Snow showers and windy conditions will continue to impact much of the region today, with lower elevations either mixing with or changing over to rain by this afternoon. A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs will trend more toward MVFR through midday, with intermittent IFR CIGS/VSBY in heavier snow showers.

Rain and snow showers will gradually lessen in coverage and intensity through this afternoon as some drier air slowly starts to filter in across the area. This should help conditions start to improve to toward VFR across the Niagara Frontier over to KROC this afternoon, while mainly MVFR CIGS are expected to hang in through at least late this afternoon or early evening elsewhere before also improving to VFR this evening. Mainly VFR conditions should then persist tonight through the end of the 12Z TAF cycle.

Otherwise, it will be windy today, with gusts 30 to 35 knots much of the time before winds slowly start to come down this evening.

Outlook .

Saturday and Sunday . Mainly VFR. Sunday night and Monday . MVFR. Showers. Very Windy. Tuesday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. A deep storm over the Canadian maritimes will keep strong winds in place throughout the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. High end small craft advisories for all of the New York nearshore waters . as well as for the IAG River/Buffalo Harbor are already in effect . as is a gale warning for the eastern two thirds of the open waters of Lake Ontario.

As the storm system moves further away from the region tonight . an axis of high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will advance to the east. This will significantly weaken the surface pressure gradient over Lake Erie . and to a lesser extent Lake Ontario . so that winds and waves will gradually subside. While this will allow the gale warning to expire by early evening . and for the SCA's to drop off on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario during the course of the night . winds will likely stay high enough to warrant an extension of the SCA for the east end of Lake Ontario.

A ridge will gradually push across the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday. This will allow for generally moderate westerlies on Lake Erie and the western portion of Lake Ontario . while fresh winds will maintain nominal SCA conditions from Hamlin Beach to the Thousand Islands.

Looking further ahead . another round of gale force winds is likely Monday and Monday night as an intense sfc low will pass to the west and north of the region.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Westerly winds of 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts today will result in significant wave action on the east end of Lake Ontario. The wave action combined with high water levels will result in some lakeshore flooding and some erosion along the immediate Lake Ontario shore today. A lakeshore flood warning remains in effect for southern Jefferson through Wayne counties.

Elevated levels will continue on Lake Erie this morning with levels hovering around 6 ft. Thus the Lakeshore Flood Advisory remains in effect through 11 AM.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ004>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ006>008. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ002>006. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ010-019-085. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ019-020. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ063>065.



SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . AR/RSH AVIATION . JM MARINE . RSH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Apffel/JLA/JM/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi53 min W 35 G 45 36°F 993.3 hPa32°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi35 min W 22 G 33 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi53 min 35°F 996.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi41 minWNW 21 G 338.00 miLight Snow and Breezy36°F28°F76%993.2 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi41 minW 140.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%993.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4W3NW5N5N4NW6W8W9NW10NW5NW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3434Calm3Calm
2 days agoN6W75NW9NW8--N9N6CalmNE5CalmE4E4NE3NE3E4E4E3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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