Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure across the area this afternoon will drift east across New England tonight. The surface high will bring fair and dry weather through this evening. This afternoon will be mostly sunny and warm with temperatures mainly in the 60s.

A weak warm frontal segment will move across the region tonight, with mesoscale guidance showing a bit better chances for sprinkles or light showers as it moves through overnight. Any rain amounts will be very light, but did carry a 1-2 hour period of chance PoPs for most areas as this boundary moves through.

The warm front will move off into Quebec and northern New England on Thursday. There may be some lingering showers or sprinkles across the North Country, but elsewhere the clouds will scatter out nicely giving way to mostly sunny skies for most of Western NY. There's a slight chance for an instability driven shower across the Western Southern Tier during the afternoon. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs rising well into the 70s in most areas, and 60s in the North Country.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly dry conditions will continue Thursday night as surface high pressure drifts off the New England coast, with clouds increasing from west to east ahead of the next system.

Low pressure will organize over the mid section of the nation Friday, with the surface low reaching the central Great Lakes late Friday, then passing over or just north of the eastern Great Lakes Friday night before exiting down the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday. Increasing moisture transport and isentropic upglide ahead of the trough will bring a chance of a few showers as early as Friday morning, with rain becoming more likely across Western NY later Friday afternoon or evening as better forcing and moisture arrive. Friday will still be quite warm with highs in the 70s away from the immediate lakeshores.

The most widespread rain will likely fall Friday night as the cold front moves east across the eastern Great Lakes and the best DPVA/height falls ahead of the mid level trough spread into the region. There will be enough instability to support at least a slight chance of some embedded thunder as well. Expect a few bands of moderate to heavy showers Friday night with locally heavy rainfall possible.

Rain will taper off from west to east late Friday night and Saturday with the passage of the surface cold front. A few light showers may linger into Saturday afternoon, mainly across the North Country in closer proximity to the mid level trough axis.
Saturday will be much cooler with highs back into the 50s in most areas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday, providing a dry back half of the weekend with plenty of sunshine Sunday. The surface high will remain parked along or just off the eastern seaboard Monday, providing a continuation of dry weather. Southerly return flow around the departing high will support another robust warm-up early next week, with temperatures surging to well above average.

Rain chances will gradually increase from west to east later Tuesday as a trough approaches from the west, but the better chance of rain and thunderstorms will likely hold off until Tuesday night or Wednesday as another cold front crosses the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening as a ridge of high pressure drifts slowly east across the region. A warm frontal segment will move through overnight, and this will produce a mid-level cloud deck and perhaps some light rain showers. These will be light, and unlikely to interrupt the VFR flight conditions. Otherwise, the boundary will move northward Thursday, giving way to mostly sunny skies and more VFR weather lasting through Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later in the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday.. MVFR/IFR early with a chance of showers, improving to VFR later in the day.

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

MARINE
High pressure will drift from the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon to New England tonight, with relatively light winds through Thursday. The light synoptic scale flow will allow local lake breezes to develop this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon with onshore winds each afternoon.

Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes Friday afternoon before moving over or just north of the lower Great Lakes Friday night through early Saturday. East winds will increase Friday on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions developing. Small Craft Advisory conditions are more likely later Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front, especially on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.