Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:41PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 11:51 AM EST (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 12:53PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202002182215;;727972 Fzus51 Kbuf 181455 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 955 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-182215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 955 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Rest of today..South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots. Snow with rain likely late this morning, then rain likely early this afternoon. A chance of rain late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 181544 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1044 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will pass just north of the region through this afternoon. After a snowy and sloppy commute from the interior Southern Tier to the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes eastward, precipitation has rapidly diminished over all but the southeast and east of Lake Ontario now where several inches of snow could still occur, especially higher terrain, through mid afternoon. Otherwise, it will be quite windy and briefly warmer across the region today. Colder air will then move back into the region Wednesday through Thursday with some lake effect snow developing, especially southeast of Lake Ontario.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A mess of a commute this morning, especially from interior Southern Tier to the Genesee valley and eastward. In those areas, snow ended up heavier than expected, with a couple of 3-5 inch reports around Rochester and likely similar amounts east of there into Oswego county. Put a winter weather advisory out for Oswego and Jefferson earlier (Lewis was already within an advisory), but based on precip trends, most of the heavier precip in form of snow will be out of all but the higher terrain areas of Tug Hill after noon. Otherwise, could see a few rain showers try to develop again over western NY, but main theme will be windy and warmer most areas by early this afternoon. East of Lake Ontario, expect any lingering snow to change to rain by noon near Lake Ontario, and by early to mid afternoon farther east. Before then, upslope enhancement across southern Lewis County will produce additional moderate accumulations of 3 to 5 inches from the southern Tug Hill to near McKeever where SSW upslope flow maximizes. From here on out, there will be far less snow near Lake Ontario and across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties without the benefit of upslope flow. Here, only around another inch of accumulation is expected.

Later today, a weak baroclinic wave developing along an advancing cold front may bring another brief period of more organized showers across portions of the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region. Meanwhile areas from Buffalo to Rochester will become mainly dry as the afternoon progresses. Any lingering showers east of Lake Ontario and across the interior Southern Tier will then end this evening.

A strong 60+ knot low level jet will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region from late morning through mid afternoon. Nearly isothermal profiles through the boundary layer and the warm advection pattern will not support efficient mixing of the stronger winds down to the surface in most areas. There also does not appear to be enough static stability to support a strong downslope wind response. With this in mind, wind gusts will be limited to 30-40 mph across Western NY this morning. The inversion is a little stronger east of Lake Ontario, and the low level jet also becomes stronger. This may support a few sporadic gusts to 50 mph in downslope areas near the north slopes of the Tug Hill, Black River Valley, and near Fort Drum. Thus far the peak gust has been 43 mph at Fort Drum. Finally, there may be a brief period of stronger winds from the Lake Erie shore northeast across the Niagara Frontier this afternoon just behind the cold front. There is a very brief 1-2 hour period of 40- 45 knots just off the deck as lapse rates steepen behind the cold front. This may support a very short window of 40-45 mph gusts locally near Buffalo.

Temperatures will surge into the low to mid 40s in most areas by midday today, before dropping back into the 30s later this afternoon behind the cold front.

A secondary cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The airmass will grow cold enough to support a lake response by late tonight, with snow showers increasing southeast of the lakes. Any accumulation through daybreak Wednesday will be minor.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A secondary frontal boundary will traverse the eastern Great Lakes late Tuesday night into Wednesday. WNW'erly flow behind this feature will usher in a much colder air mass with H850T dropping to -16C to - 18C across the region. This will likely encourage a very brief but limited lake response east and then southeast off the lakes by early Wednesday morning. Then the air mass behind the front briefly dries out a bit with lake snows held in check over the course of the day. With limited moisture accumulations will more than likely be very light with this initial round of lake snows on Wednesday. With that said, accumulations of 1-2 inches at best will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. Elsewhere, look for mainly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers. In terms of temperatures, highs will be found mainly in the 20s areawide.

Wednesday night, things get a bit more interesting as a very subtle shortwave approaches the Lower Lakes. This feature appears to be what will re-invigorates lake snows, especially off Lake Ontario where a shot of added moisture and lift will come from the shortwave. It also appears that there will likely be some kind of upstream help from Lake Huron (Georgian Bay) which won't be there for Lake Erie. One thing is for sure, over lake instability won't be an issue with H850T hovering near -16C/-18C across the area and lake water temperatures currently +1C/+2C. With deep moisture extending well through and above the DGZ expect decent snowfall rates and ratios of +20:1. However, there is only a narrow window of opportunity for accumulating lake snows which will likely limit accumulations to a point. With that said, confidence has increased enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Wayne, N. Cayuga, and Oswego where a band of steady snow is likely to reside just long enough to reach criteria under a NW'erly flow regime. Early estimates of 6-9 inches will be possible off Lake Ontario within the Watch area.

Off Lake Erie, with an unfavorable NW'erly flow and less moisture to work with accumulations will be severely limited. At this point, the best chance for any accumulations will likely focus across the Chautauqua ridge with an inch or two at best.

Thursday, lake effect snows will be ongoing off Lake Ontario but will begin to gradually diminish as drier air works in and equilibrium levels start to fall over the course of the day. Elsewhere, expect mainly cloudy skies with a few passing snow showers outside of lake effect snows. It will also be quite chilly as highs will peak in the teens to low 20s.

Thursday night, lake effect snows will continue to diminish if not end as drier air filters in and warming mid-levels influence lake snows. Any additional accumulations will likely be minor at this point. Otherwise, it will again be cold with temperatures by daybreak Friday found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario and the western Southern Tier. Elsewhere, teens will be quite common along the lake Plains.

Friday, flow around an expansive surface high over the deep south will provide dry weather and warming temperatures across the region. After a chilly start, look for high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across the Lower Lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Broad high pressure to our south looks to maintain dry and quite weather Friday night through Sunday. It will also encourage a continual warming trend for a good portion of this period.

The next chance for any precipitation doesn't come into the picture until Sunday or even as late as Monday as a cold front sweeps east through the region. As usual timing issues arise among the various model guidance packages have added a chance of rain and snow during the Sunday into Monday time frame. Otherwise, it appears again that winter has come and gone again with above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Have seen rapid improvement this morning for all sites except ART as widespread precipitation (rain,snow or just snow) has ended. Though could see a mix of rain/snow at times into early afternoon at ART, does appear that the widespread snow and lower vsby is coming to an end. Overall, mainly MVFR to lower VFR cigs are expected into the aftn (IFR at JHW) but no real vsby reduction should occur as any precip will be spotty at best. It is possible there could be a lingering MVFR vsby at ART into early afternoon, but would be brief. Main issue into the afternoon will be gusty southerly winds with very strong winds over 50 kts just off the sfc, so have included LLWS through early afternoon even though wind gusts at the sfc may reach 30 kts.

Late this afternoon into tonight, winds will begin to diminish, any LLWS will end. Cigs will persist in the MVFR to lower VFR range.

Outlook . Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR, except for localized IFR conditions in lake snows southeast of the lakes. Friday and Saturday . VFR conditions.

MARINE. Low pressure will pass by just north of the eastern Great Lakes through this afternoon. A strong low level jet ahead of the system will support fairly strong southerly winds through midday, becoming southwest this afternoon and then westerly by Wednesday. This will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario lasting through Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ006-007. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-008. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for NYZ004>006. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR/EAJ AVIATION . JLA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi57 min 32°F 1013.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi51 min S 17 G 27 41°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi57 min 41°F 1011 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi5 hrsSE 80.50 miSnow Freezing Fog27°F24°F89%1019.5 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi5 hrsE 121.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F23°F85%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NW8N7NW3N4CalmNE4NE33CalmE4CalmCalmE45SE8
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1 day agoSW5SW7SW6W6W8W9W6W6W7W7W6SW4SW5W9NW5N3NW3N8N6N3--NW6N10N6
2 days ago--SE8SW10S9S8
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S14S9S10S9SW10S7S6S7S7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.