Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:31PM Thursday December 5, 2019 5:46 PM EST (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 12:22AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201912051615;;312249 Fzus51 Kbuf 051142 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 642 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043>045-051615- Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 642 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds to 30 knots. Snow showers likely this morning, then scattered snow showers this afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 42 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 051949 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 249 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure over Wisconsin will move across our forecast area on Friday. This will produce a general snowfall with most areas picking up a couple inches of accumulation. Some nuisance lake snows in its wake will then be found southeast of both lakes Friday night into Saturday. Milder weather can then be anticipated Sunday into the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A lowering cap with the onset of weak warm advection this evening will weaken and bring an end to the nuisance lake snows found southeast of both lakes. There will be no rest for the weary though . as a synoptic system is already on our far western horizon.

A 100kt jet streak over the upper-most Mississippi valley this evening will support an area of light snow that will gradually blossom into a large area of accumulating snow as it passes through the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. The expansion and intensification of the approaching synoptic based snow will come as a result of an associated sfc reflection becoming organized within a tight H925- 70 baroclinic zone under the aforementioned UL jet.

As the sfc wave approaches our region late tonight . it will evolve into a weak 'clipper-like' low that will cross our region during the day Friday. Lift generated under the left front (exit region) quadrant of the 100kt H25 jet will coincide with forcing from a 40- 45kt low level jet to produce a 4-6 hour burst of steady snow that will cross our region LATE tonight through the first half of Friday morning. Snow accumulations will generally total one to three inches.

In the wake of the system . the widespread synoptic snow will give way to more lake driven snows Friday afternoon and evening as H85 temps will drop off to around -10c. The deepening cold air will prompt the limiting cap to rise to nearly 10kft . so this next round of lake snow could include some moderately heavy activity times Friday night. A general 300-310 steering flow will direct the lake effect into the typical snowbelts southeast of both lakes where two to four inches of accumulation will be possible. Outside of the main lake effect areas . there could be enough scattered snow shower activity to leave a coating in some areas. It will be a colder night with mins in the teens away from the lake shores.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect snow showers will continue into the morning on Saturday southeast of Lake Ontario. Snow showers will further dissipate through the morning as an area of high pressure tracks toward the area. As ridging increases with the high approaching from the southwest, lowering equilibrium heights and drier air will start to reduce the lake response off of Lake Ontario. By the start of this period, any lake response off of Lake Erie should be minimal to none as the drier air and ridging from the approaching area of high pressure gets to the Lake Erie area earlier.

Outside of any potential lake effect off of Lake Ontario, with the area of high pressure centering over the Finger Lakes by mid- afternoon on Saturday, the weather overall will be dry. This will continue through the late day on Sunday as the area of high pressure tracks east to the coast of New England by Sunday afternoon. As the area of high pressure crosses the region, west to northwest winds will shift to the south through the day on Saturday. As winds shift, cold air advection will weaken and warm air advection will take over from west to east. Before coming to an end, cold air advection will cause the 850H temperatures to bottom out at around -12C across WNY and to -15C east of Lake Ontario on Saturday morning. With the cold air advection continuing through Saturday, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s east of Lake Ontario and in the upper 20s to near 30 for all other areas.

Dry and cool conditions will continue through Saturday night as the area of high pressure slides east through the night. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the low to mid teens east of Lake Ontario, and in the upper teens to mid 20s for the higher terrain to the lake plains respectively.

On Sunday, as the area of high pressure tracks farther east and a trough approaches from the west, increased southerly flow will start to increase warm air advection through the day. With the area of high pressure influencing the weather, dry conditions are expected across the area through the daytime hours. After early morning lows in the upper teens to mid 20s, the afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario and in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the rest of the area.

Sunday night, a frontal boundary and trough will slowly track toward the area. As the boundary tracks east, weak waves of low pressure will track northeast, increasing our chances for precipitation. Chance POPs will cover far WNY by the late evening, and continue to increase from west to east through the night. Increased forcing and increasing moisture will cause precipitation to track farther east into the area, and most locations will have likely POPs by daybreak on Monday. As precipitation starts, it should be mostly in the form of rain, but some higher spots where the temperatures remain cooler could see some mixing with or change to snow. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s across the higher terrain, and in the upper 30s to near 40 for the lower elevations.

On Monday, an area of low pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley will track northeast along the nearly stationary boundary to Lake Huron by the evening on Monday, strengthening in the process. This area of low pressure will strengthen in the left exit region of a strengthening 250 jet with 250H winds reaching 160 kts as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes. Precipitation on Monday will continue to overspread the region through the day, making for a soggy first day of the workweek. Most of the precipitation on Monday will be in the form of rain, but some snow or mixing with snow early will be possible in the higher terrain. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 40s across the higher terrain, and in the upper 40s to near 50 in the lower elevations.

Monday night, the area of low pressure will track northeast from near Lake Huron to western Quebec. As this system continues to track northeast, its trailing cold front will approach the area. Forcing and a continued moisture influx ahead of the front will help continue the likelihood of rain across the area. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. In the wake of a strong cold front . dramatically colder air will pour across the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The magnitude and depth of the cold air, available moisture, and position of upper level features all look to be FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Obviously at this time range specifics are not possible in terms of location and amounts. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Cigs of 2500 to 3500 ft late this afternoon should improve to around 5000 ft by evening as the lake supported snow showers weaken and become less widespread. The exceptions will be southeast of both lakes where mainly MVFR cigs will accompany lake effect snow showers. Vsbys in areas of lake snows will range from 2-5SM.

Mainly VFR conditions early tonight will then deteriorate . as weak low pressure approaching from the Upper Great Lakes will lead to the onset of widespread snow after 08z. Cigs will drop to MVFR levels while vsbys will drop to IFR to LIFR levels across the far western counties.

IFR to LIFR conditions in widespread snow can be expected thorugh midday Friday. Slow improvement is anticipated for the afternoon and evening.

Outlook . Saturday and Sunday . VFR. Monday . VFR to MVFR in rain showers. Tuesday . MVFR in mixed precipitation.

MARINE. Small craft advisories will progressively drop off tonight . as fresh northwesterlies will gradually weaken with the passage of a shortwave ridge.

In the wake of a clipper-like surface low on Friday . northwest winds will freshen on both lakes Friday night. This could lead to a new round of SCAs for Lake Erie and parts of Lake Ontario.

A large area of high pressure will pass over the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday. This will support generally light winds and negligible waves. Southerly winds will then freshen on both lakes late Saturday night and Sunday. While this will push the highest wave action into Canadian waters . rough conditions north of Mexico Bay could support a SCA.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . SW LONG TERM . Hitchcock/SW AVIATION . RSH MARINE . RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi53 min WNW 30 G 39 1013.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi47 min NW 16 G 24 34°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi53 min 33°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi53 minWNW 13 G 2910.00 miOvercast32°F19°F61%1013.9 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi53 minW 1010.00 miOvercast31°F24°F76%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4S3SW5SW6SW7SW7SW9SW5S4S5S6S5S7S6S6S7S7S7S7S6S7S7S6S7
2 days agoN11N13N10N11N10N10N12N11
G18
N9N10N9N8N7N4NW4W7NW8NW13NW10W10W12W9W8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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