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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico, NY

November 3, 2024 8:43 AM EST (13:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 4:55 PM
Moonrise 9:06 AM   Moonset 5:43 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
   
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LOZ044 Expires:202411030300;;849853 Fzus51 Kbuf 022024 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 424 pm edt Sat nov 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-030300- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 424 pm edt Sat nov 2 2024

Tonight - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mostly cloudy this evening, then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Sunday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Thursday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 58 degrees.
LOZ005
No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
   
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 031119 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 619 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the region will maintain dry weather with seasonable temperatures today. A warm front will then move through the area tonight and Monday with a return to well above normal temperatures through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Clear skies and chilly across the CWA with readings in the 20s to low 30s.

High pressure will begin to exit off to the east and northeast today but will maintain fair dry weather
After a chilly start
mercury readings will climb into the mid/upper 40s east of lake Ontario, with a range of 50s elsewhere.

Sunday night...high pressure will continue to exit off into New England by Monday morning. Increasing warm advection and mid level moisture transport will bring increasing mid/high clouds from west to east but dry weather is expected to continue overnight.

Above normal temperatures return Monday as a warm frontal segment crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Southerly winds will also pick up with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. There will also be a chance of a few showers as the warm front moves through the region Otherwise...highs on Monday will be found in the 50s to low/mid 60s across far Western New York.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The longwave trough will become more progressive going into Tuesday as a strong upper jet and leading mid level trough advances across the Upper Great Lakes. Surface low will lift into the upper Great Lakes Monday night as warm front segment rides north of the region.

Monday night looks mainly dry with only a low confidence chance for a few showers along the northern tier of the area, but the best forcing and moisture will be north of the warm frontal zone across southern Canada. Southerly flow in advance of the upper trough and associated warm air advection will bring a non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night with overnight temperatures steady or slowly rising.

The warm air advection will persist into Tuesday with model soundings and probabilistic temperature guidance indicating highs in the mid to upper 70s across the lake plains of western New York. For reference, current record highs for November 5th were all set in 2022 and are 79 at Buffalo
77 at Rochester
and 77 at Watertown...and it appears that these will at least be approached at KBUF/KROC. With nearly 50 knots of wind forecast in the 2-5k foot layer, it will certainly be breezy.
Strongest wind gusts will probably stay under 45 mph given the limitation in mixing potential in early November.

The surface low will track northeast of the area Tuesday night sending its trailing cold front east and into our area. This will bring the likelihood of at least some showers into our region.

On Wednesday the passing cold front will weaken and quickly exit to our east during the morning, with high pressure and drier air then building east across our region during the afternoon. The resulting drying and loss of forcing for ascent should result in scattered to numerous early morning showers diminishing to some much spottier leftover activity across our southern and eastern periphery by early afternoon, with most areas more likely to see a dry second half of the day. Otherwise cooler air filtering in behind the departing front will result in a cooler day with most areas seeing high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
In general...surface high pressure and somewhat cooler air should then continue to build across our region Wednesday night and Thursday...resulting in largely dry weather along with high temps pulling back a bit more into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

After that...the medium range guidance diverges rather markedly with respect to the amplitude of another passing northern stream mid- level trough late in the week...and even more so with respect to how quickly another system approaches from the west next weekend. Given these discrepancies and the rather dry pattern we have been locked into for the past month...have aimed below blended guidance for PoPs Friday into Saturday...with these generally capped in the slight chance to low-end chance range for now. Otherwise the passing northern stream system should bring at least a modest shot of cooler air into our region for the end of the work week and start of next weekend...which should result in highs pulling back closer to (but still remaining a little bit above normal) by Saturday.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will bring VFR and spectacular flight conditions today through tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.
Monday night through Tuesday...VFR with a small chance of showers, mainly near the Canadian border.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.
Thursday...VFR.

MARINE
Light winds and wave action today with high pressure over the region. The ridge of high pressure will exit off to our east and northeast tonight into New England. A tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and incoming trough will bring a freshening of winds through Tuesday, with periods of SCA conditions.
A cold front will near the eastern Great Lakes late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with moderate southwesterlies continuing.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi56 minSSE 5.1G8 30.47
45215 19 mi48 min 39°F 57°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi44 minE 7.8G12 45°F 56°F1 ft30.52
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi44 minSW 8.9G11 37°F 30.54
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi74 min 35°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 11 sm49 mincalm8 smClear32°F30°F93%30.51
KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY 23 sm49 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds36°F30°F81%30.52

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast  
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Montague, NY,





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