Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 4:58PM Friday January 17, 2020 8:57 AM EST (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202001171000;;066758 Fzus51 Kbuf 170542 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1231 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-171000- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Overnight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely, then scattered lake effect snow showers late. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales overnight. Rain and snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow during the day, then snow showers Sunday night. Waves 10 to 15 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 171206 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 706 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow showers will slowly tapering off through the afternoon. Clearing skies through the day today before increasing clouds from west to east tonight ahead of the next storm. The next area of low pressure causes a mixture of snow, sleet and rain for Saturday, before a transition to lake effect on Sunday. Cooling temperatures from Sunday through the middle of next week will bring daytime highs below normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Lake effect snow currently south of Lake Ontario with mostly light snow. An earlier lake band with a Georgian Bay connection that extended into Southern Erie and into the Western Southern Tier has weakened. Expecting light lake snow to continue from Orleans County to Oswego County with northwest winds off of Lake Ontario. Temperatures currently in the upper single digits to mid teens south of Lake Ontario and around -5 to 0 east of Lake Ontario where sky cover has been clear for most of the night

This morning, expecting lake response to continue to slowly weaken as high pressure moves into the area causing lowering equilibrium heights through the day today. The main driving force with the lake snows still present is either/both the upstream connection to Lake Huron (including Georgian Bay), or low level moisture still present. Snow amounts should generally be only around a half inch in areas of lake effect snow, areas across the higher terrain near Lake Erie may see around an inch as orographic lift helps increase snow amounts a bit. Low temperatures this morning are expected to dip to the upper single digits to low teens south of Lake Ontario and to around 0 to 5 degrees below zero east of Lake Ontario.

Lake effect snow will taper off today as low level moisture decreases into the afternoon. Light snow south of Lake Ontario will last the longest as moisture from the lake will feed the snow a bit longer than what would normally be expected with the lack of synoptic moisture and the approaching high pressure with increased ridging. Warm air advection today will also really begin to cutoff the lake response as 850H temps warm from an early morning low of around -18C to an afternoon reading of around -9C. Snow amounts today will only be a few tenths through the early afternoon. Areas downwind of the lakes and outside of the light snow will see a decrease in clouds through the day with mostly sunny skies by the late afternoon for most areas. Unfortunately though, the sun will be misleading and daytime high temperatures will only be in the upper teens to near 20 south of Lake Ontario and in the upper single digits to low teens east of Lake Ontario. These expected temperatures today will be the coldest of the season for some areas.

Tonight, mostly clear skies to start the evening will begin to increase in cloud coverage from west to east through the night as an area of low pressure approaches the Great Lakes and its warm front approaches the area through the night. By daybreak light snow will be near the far western portion of the area with likely POPs making it into Chautauqua County a little before sunrise. Early low temperatures will be in the single digits to low teens south of Lake Ontario and in the -5 to -10 degree range east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will slowly warm through the night as warm air advection increases across the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Potentially significant snow accumulations east of Lake Ontario during this period. Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this area. Moderate accumulating lake effect snow is also expected Saturday night into Sunday east of Lake Erie.

A relatively strong, amplified shortwave with a 500 mb jet maximum exceeding 100 kts is expected to move east into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. The associated cyclone will follow the strongest warm air advection and vorticity advection provided by the shortwave aloft, and will likely be deepening and moving through the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon, reaching southern Ontario by Saturday evening.

Models remain in pretty close consensus showing deep warm advection will continue to expand into the area during the day Saturday leading to widespread precipitation. The leading edge of this precipitation should already be into far western New York Saturday morning and should expand quickly eastward and cover the entire area by late morning. Resident column plenty cold enough for precipitation to start everywhere as a period of snow. Track of the surface low to our north and west across the central Great lakes will force a strong warm nose into western New York by mid day or early afternoon. The resulting rapid warming column will likely bring the potential for a mix of sleet, possibly some freezing rain and then eventually mixing with or change to rain. The best chances to see a complete change over to all rain will be on the lake plains of western New York during the afternoon and early evening. Some of this change over could also occur across the Genesee Valley. Precipitation should remain all snow east of the Finger Lakes. The incoming warm air aloft will result in snow ratios lower than climatology, around 8:1 and closer to 4:1 in areas where the precipitation type becomes mixed. Snowfall amounts during the day Saturday tricky due to changeable thermal profile throughout the day, but overall looking at a 2-4 inch accumulation, with amounts closer or even less than 2 inches in areas where mixed precipitation occurs and especially those areas where rain mixes in. The colder areas east of the Finger Lakes should be closer to 4 inches, with even perhaps a bit more across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill.

The synoptic/warm air advection part of this event should wrap up for the most part by Saturday evening and the lake response portion of the event will commence. Strengthening westerly winds on the backside of the low lifting into Ontario will send colder air into the region. The bulk of the snow will be confined to favored westerly upslope areas east of the lakes with several inches of accumulation likely, especially late Saturday night as more organized snow bands develop. The heaviest snow likely will be across the Tug Hill region where westerly flow upslope will be maximized. Tightening gradient south of the departing low will result in a period of strong winds within a well mixed environment with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph common with some potential for even stronger winds along lake shore areas.

On Sunday, the majority of the focus for snowfall will evolve into orographic and lake enhancement. Steady cold advection through the day will yield increasing lake instability, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to around 10K feet. The increasing lake instability will work cooperatively with increasing westerly upslope flow east of the lakes.

The deepest synoptic scale moisture and best overall setup will be east of Lake Ontario, with westerly flow targeting the Tug Hill where significant additional accumulations will be possible on the Tug Hill through the day, and moderate accumulations for surrounding lower elevations. East of Lake Erie, synoptic scale moisture is not quite as deep, but should still be supportive of at least moderate accumulations across higher terrain. Outside of the lake enhanced areas, only expect an inch or two at most on Sunday.

It will remain windy on Sunday with momentum transfer profiles suggesting wind gust of 30-40 mph with some potential for even stronger winds early in the day.

Sunday night a secondary cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes, with some additional moisture and convergence. This will produce fairly widespread snow showers across most of the region. Westerly flow will veer northwesterly with the passage of the trough, taking lake effect/upslope snows east of the lakes and spreading them out to the southeast of the lakes. This will increase the areal coverage of lake effect snow, but also decrease the intensity as boundary layer winds end their alignment with the long axis of the lakes. Expect additional light to moderate accumulations overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Northwest flow and an additional trough passage Monday and Monday night will continue to support fairly widespread lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with some additional accumulations likely. Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will continue through Tuesday as a very cold airmass crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Expect several days of highs in the teens to low 20s and lows in the teens to single numbers (below zero east of Lake Ontario) from Tuesday through Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will finally shut down by Wednesday night as the coldest air aloft moves away, and surface high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

Later next week the cold air will steadily retreat back into Canada, with temperatures warming back closer to average Thursday with mainly dry weather. Looking a little farther ahead, it appears the cold/wintry pattern will relax at least temporarily, with all operational model guidance supporting a return to above normal temperatures again by Friday and Saturday of next week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. For all TAF sites, except ART where skies are clear, expect sct to broken MVFR cigs to persist the rest of the early morning in a north to northwest sfc flow. Lake effect snow showers and flurries will be scattered about the area. The best chance of vsby restrictions blo MVFR will occur at JHW and ROC, but even these should be relatively brief. Conditions will gradually improve by afternoon as low clouds and lingering light snow and flurries finally completely scatter out.

Tonight, increasing clouds through the night ahead of the next system, but should be primarily VFR.

Outlook .

Saturday . Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR from west to east with snow, possibly changing to a wintry mix across Western NY. Sunday and Tuesday . MVFR/IFR due to lake effect snows and blowing snow east of the lakes.

MARINE. Northwest flow will maintain small craft conditions on portions of Lake Ontario through the morning. Lighter northerly flow will continue later today as high pressure settles toward the lower Great Lakes. Approaching low pressure will increase southerly flow on Saturday, but as a trailing cold front passes Saturday night, westerly gales are becoming increasingly possible. Gale watches are currently in effect for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong winds developing Saturday night into Sunday may bring another round of lakeshore flooding to Lake Ontario.

The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore westerly winds, and high waves may produce some lakeshore flooding in bays and inlets at the east end of Lake Ontario impacting lakeshore areas of Jefferson and Oswego counties.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NYZ006>008. Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for NYZ006-007. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ006>008. MARINE . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for LEZ040-041. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for LOZ043>045-063>065. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LOZ042-062. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043-044.



SYNOPSIS . SW NEAR TERM . SW SHORT TERM . Hitchcock/TMA LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . JLA/SW MARINE . Fries/SW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi64 min 10°F 1043.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi58 min NNW 15 G 19 14°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi64 min 15°F 1043.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi64 minN 54.00 miLight Snow9°F1°F70%1043.8 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi64 minNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds6°F0°F73%1043.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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N9N9N7N5
1 day agoW7W8W6W9NW8NW9NW5NW5N3Calm3E34545E7SE53CalmW3W8NW9NW10
2 days agoCalmSE4Calm6SE74Calm4S9S11S11
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.