Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:23PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:30 PM EDT (22:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 8:51AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1021 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm edt...
This afternoon..Southeast winds to 30 knots becoming south 15 to 25 knots. Scattered showers early. Rain late. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201910162115;;797415 FZUS51 KBUF 161421 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1021 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-162115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 162206
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
606 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front will move east across the region this afternoon
before stalling east of lake ontario this evening. Widespread,
soaking rain will continue through Thursday morning east of lake
ontario. Meanwhile farther west, the steady rain today will give way
to lake enhanced showers tonight and Thursday. It will turn blustery
and chilly tonight and Thursday. Dry weather will return Friday and
Saturday as high pressure builds back into the region, with
temperatures warming steadily through the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
At 6 p.M. Radar imagery showing widespread rain from rochester
eastward, with far western new york mainly dry outside of a
fairly substantial lake effect rain shower band extending
northeast of lake erie across the buffalo metro area.

A strong mid level closed low and nearly vertically stacked surface
low will continue to move east across lake huron through this
evening, with an associated cold front moving slowly east across our
region. Strong dpva, height falls, and diffluence aloft will combine
with strong moisture transport and convergence supported by a 50+
knot low level jet. The quality moisture and dynamics will continue
to produce widespread rainfall along the advancing cold front
through this evening, with the steady rain tapering off from west to
east from the finger lakes westward during the late afternoon and
evening as the cold front moves into central ny.

Tonight the initial low over lake huron will give way to robust
secondary cyclogenesis off the DELMARVA as additional strong
shortwave energy rotates through the trough and reaches the coast.

The ensuing coastal low will likely undergo bombogenesis (24mb or
greater pressure fall in 24 hours) as it moves northward to new
hampshire by Thursday morning. The cold front which has been
advancing east across our area will stall this evening east of lake
ontario, and then evolve into a sharp inverted trough to the north
and west of the rapidly deepening coastal low. The low level focus
of the inverted trough will combine with strong ageostrophic flow
adjustments from the rapidly deepening coastal low and strong mid
level closed low to produce deep layer ascent across the eastern
lake ontario region tonight through Thursday morning. This will
support widespread, soaking rainfall east of lake ontario.

Meanwhile from the western finger lakes westward across western ny,
the steady, soaking rain from the cold front will have tapered off
by early this evening. Wrap around moisture and a spoke of vorticity
orbiting the strong closed low will produce additional showers
across western ny tonight. Lake effect rain showers will also
develop later this afternoon and continue tonight as cold air
deepens over lake erie. Southwesterly boundary layer flow in the
wake of the cold front will initially direct the lake effect rain
showers into the buffalo area during the late afternoon and early
evening. Boundary layer flow will then quickly veer to the northwest
later this evening, carrying the bulk of the lake effect rain into
the western southern tier with a focus on the chautauqua ridge
overnight.

A dry slot will move into the genesee valley and western finger
lakes this evening and remain in place much of tonight. This will
keep a relative lull in rainfall for these areas much of tonight,
sandwiched between the soaking rain east of lake ontario and wrap
around lake effect rain across much of western ny.

On Thursday the strong coastal low will briefly stall near the
connecticut river valley in new england as the strong mid level
closed low moves east and becomes vertically stacked atop the
surface low. The well defined inverted trough over the eastern lake
ontario region will break down and swing south and west as the
surface low stalls, allowing the steady soaking rain to end across
the eastern lake ontario region. Deep wrap around moisture and low
level convergence will wrap back across the entire region Thursday
morning. The synoptic forcing will combine with moist northwest
upslope flow and moderately strong lake instability to produce
widespread showers across much of the region, peaking in coverage
during the late morning and early afternoon. The widespread showers
will begin to diminish in coverage and intensity later in the
afternoon as the vertically stacked coastal low begins to drift east
to the maine coast, and deeper moisture and forcing start to move
away from the region.

Rainfall totals from today through Thursday will reach 0.75" to
1.25" for the bulk of the area. Lake enhanced upslope across the
chautauqua ridge will produce higher totals of 1.25"-1.75". Much
higher rain totals will be found east of lake ontario with a longer
duration of soaking rain. Rain totals will reach 2-3" east of
interstate 81. This rain will fall over an 18+ hour period. It will
result in significant within-bank rises on area creeks and rivers
along with some poor drainage ponding, but significant flooding is
not anticipated.

Cold advection behind the cold front will bring temperatures into
the 40s areawide tonight. Widespread thick clouds and showers
Thursday will not allow for much recovery. Highs may briefly reach
near 50 at lower elevations and mid 40s across higher terrain. It
will turn quite windy Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens to
the west of the strong coastal low. Northwest winds will gust in the
30-40 mph range across much of the area. The strongest winds will be
found along the south shore of lake ontario, where gusts may reach
or possibly exceed 45 mph at times. These values are close to wind
advisory criteria, but only marginally so. If later model runs grow
confidence in an extended period of gusts in excess of 45 mph, a
wind advisory may be needed along the south shore of lake ontario.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
A mature nor'easter will be over northern new england Thursday night
with continued low level cold air advection over wny and cny under a
nw flow aloft. An upstream ridge (currently over the western u.S.)
will be approaching by this time, so expect ongoing lake effect and
upslope rain to be slowly tapering off overnight, first SE of lake
erie during the evening, and SE of lake ontario overnight. A few
cooler spots higher terrain could even end with a little non-
accumulating snow flakes toward Friday morning.

Friday, will be a transition day between the slowly departing
downstream nor'easter and the upstream ridge. Abundant low level
moisture in the continued NW flow will likely result in an extensive
stratocu deck that may last all day over much of wny. With this in
mind, will lower temperatures a few degrees, with most areas in the
45-50f range.

Friday night, expect some clearing as subsidence is maximized. This
will result in two non-precip concerns: frost and or fog. Most of
wny and cny will flirt with lows in the mid 30s, with colder spots
in sheltered valleys of higher terrain. Typical valley fog is also
expected.

Saturday and Saturday night however should be uneventful as the
upper level ridge and associated surface high pressure move
overhead and then slowly east of the region.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A fast-moving shortwave trough will ride the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge over the eastern great lakes Sunday. Surface high
pressure will be in control and only a slight change of rain showers
are expected. The region will then be between two developing lows, a
coastal low off the east coast and an approaching low across the mid-
west. High pressure near quebec city will wedge south into the
region producing mainly dry conditions Sunday night.

Low pressure across the upper mid-west will dominate the great lakes
region and northeast Monday through Tuesday. A cold front will track
eastward across the great lakes while warmth and moisture surges
northward into the northeast. Ensemble mean forecasts show the front
reaching western ny Monday night-Tuesday. Rain and gusty winds are
likely ahead and behind the cold front into Tuesday. Temperatures
will fall behind the front and a lake response is expected as lake
induced instability increases while moisture lingers behind the
low. Lake effect rain showers will persist east of the lakes
through Wednesday.

Overall, temperatures will be 5-10 f above normal for late october
Sunday through Monday.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
A cold front will continue to move slowly east across the area this
afternoon and evening, producing widespread light to moderate rain
with a few embedded pockets of heavy rain. Vsby will be mainly MVFR
in the steadier rain, with a few pockets of ifr in the heavier rain.

The steady rain will taper off from west to east for the bulk of the
area late this afternoon and evening. The one exception will be east
of lake ontario, where steady moderate to heavy rain will continue
tonight through Thursday morning as a strong coastal low moves north
to new england. This will produce widespread ifr vsby and MVFR to
ifr CIGS east of lake ontario tonight through Thursday morning.

Meanwhile farther west, there will be lake effect and upslope
showers. The showers will initially focus near and east of lake
erie through 00z. Late tonight and Thursday the lake effect and
upslope showers will become widespread across the entire area,
peaking during the late morning and early afternoon. The heavier
showers will produce areas of MVFR to ifr vsby. Widespread
lower CIGS will develop later tonight and Thursday, with lower
end MVFR across lower elevations and ifr higher terrain.

Northwest winds will become quite gusty on Thursday, with gusts
of 25 to 35 knots common across the region, and approaching 40
knots along the south shore of lake ontario.

Outlook...

Friday... Areas of MVFR CIGS early, improving toVFR.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

Marine
Low pressure will continue to move east across lake huron through
this evening, with an associated cold front moving east of lake
ontario by late evening. Southwest winds have already increased
on lake erie by early evening. The stronger west winds will
take longer to develop on lake ontario, ramping up later tonight
and becoming northwest on Thursday. Winds on both lake erie and
lake ontario will approach gale force later tonight and
Thursday. Sustained winds are expected to peak at 30 knots,
although there will certainly be gale force gusts at times. The
end result will be high end small craft advisory conditions on
both lakes through Thursday. Expanded small craft headlines
based on this, including the lower niagara river due to
northerly component of flow late tonight and Thursday.

The winds will begin to diminish some Thursday night, and moreso
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern great
lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Thursday to 5 am edt
Friday for loz030-042.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Thursday to 11 am edt
Friday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Thursday to 5 am edt Friday
for loz045.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock apffel
short term... Zaff
long term... Hsk
aviation... Apffel hitchcock
marine... Apffel hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi43 min W 6 G 7 51°F 999.6 hPa50°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi91 min W 9.7 G 12 53°F 58°F3 ft999.5 hPa (-1.4)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi31 min SSW 4.1 G 6 52°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi49 min 51°F 999.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi37 minNW 72.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist50°F46°F89%999.5 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi37 minS 84.00 miRain Fog/Mist55°F53°F93%997.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalm3CalmSE5SE535SE6SE76SE6SE8
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6S73NW7NW7
1 day agoS3S4S4S5SW4SW5SW74S3SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW7SW5SW7466S5S4Calm
2 days agoCalm4S6S7S5S6S63S7S433S4S3W4SW6W8W9W12W9SW3W5SW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.