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LOZ044 Expires:202311292215;;603810 Fzus51 Kbuf 291453 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 953 am est Wed nov 29 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-292215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 953 am est Wed nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening, then rain likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Rain during the day, then a chance of rain Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 300240 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 940 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will move east tonight and will bring spotty lake effect snow showers with very minor accumulations northeast of the lakes tonight. High pressure then builds in briefly Thursday bringing dry and warmer weather. Generally unsettled, but milder weather returns for the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend with periodic rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Late this evening, radar shows lake effect snow showers have been very slow to develop. The 00Z Buffalo sounding has cloud tops at -8C which is not cold enough to support dendritic snow growth. As a result, model QPF is overdone. Satellite imagery shows some cloud tops upstream, so some light snow showers are still possible tonight. Based on these trends have delayed the start time and lowered PoPs (especially off Lake Erie) and lowered the already modest snow accumulation amounts. Not expecting much off Lake Erie but still could see an inch or two in Jefferson County where cloud tops will be cooler.

Low level warming will continue Thursday with any lingering lake response off Lake Ontario ending no later than mid morning.
Otherwise, dry weather expected Thursday with at least partial sunshine as high pressure briefly builds into the region. The warm advection will extend through the surface allowing daytime temperatures to peak in the lower to mid 40s with some spots in the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes making a run at 50 degrees.
Expect the continuation of breezy conditions with modest mixing depths to around 2k feet pulling down gusts of 25-35 mph with the stronger wind gusts favored in downslope areas.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Mostly dry and breezy conditions will start off Thursday night as a southerly flow continues across the region. A weak cold front will be located across the Central Great Lakes and will slowly approach the region Thursday night. This coupled with increasing moisture will result in a few rain showers Thursday evening, becoming more numerous by late Thursday night.
Temperatures will hold steady if not wobble a few degrees Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s, low 30s on the Tug Hill region.

Signals point to widespread rain moving into western and north central NY Friday. A southern stream system over the Plains will move northeast towards the region. Surface low pressure over Missouri will move along the aforementioned cold front to Indiana Friday. Increasing isentropic lift and moisture underneath the left exit region of a strong upper level jet will support an area of steady rain to move across western and north central NY. There is a chance snow may mix with the rain across the higher terrain. Liquid amounts will average 0.25-0.40 inches with the higher amounts across far western NY. Downsloping will result in the lower amounts across the Genesee Valley and northern Tug Hill region. Temperatures will be slow to climb Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s to the upper 30s across the higher terrain. By Friday night, the steady rain will move into northern NY with a break in widespread precipitation across the remainder of the area. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 30s, low 30s across the higher terrain.

The cold front will remain near or across the region Saturday.
Surface low pressure will move across the region and will support another round of showers, mainly rain but some snow showers possible across the higher terrain on Saturday. Steady showers will taper off from west to east later Saturday. Drier air will work into the region late Saturday into Saturday night with showers tapering off.
Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 30s to the upper 20s to low 30s east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The potential for precip during the long term period continues with new model runs. Models continue to bring a few rounds of showers into the area for the long term period. These rounds of quick passing showers will occur as a large trough over sets up over the Great Lakes and Northeast along with a few different shortwave troughs that track through the larger trough. This will result in at least chance POPs for most of the long term period and some likely POPs where models are in better agreement. Precipitation will be both rain and/or snow, depending on time of day and elevation of any particular area. Breaks in the precip can be expected at times between rounds of showers.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for the first half, and then cooling temperatures will bring temperatures to a few degrees below normal.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Have scaled back lake effect snow showers considerably, especially at KBUF and KIAG. This is because cloud tops on the 00Z Buffalo sounding are only about -8C which is not cold enough to support dendritic snow growth. As a result, model QPF is overdone. Satellite imagery shows some higher/cooler cloud tops upstream of KART, so some snow steadier snow showers are possible there with periods of IFR or lower. Elsewhere, expect a mix of VFR/MVFR due to lower cigs and possibly a spotty snow shower.

Any lake effect snow should end Thursday morning with mainly VFR weather expected for much of the day. Winds aloft increase Thursday night with an inversion potentially leading to LLWS at some TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday...Restrictions likely in widespread rain and possible fog.
Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered to numerous rain showers, possibly mixed with snow for higher terrain.

MARINE
Strong southwest flow will continue to keep winds and waves above headline criteria through Thursday night, with long duration Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the lower Niagara River and St. Lawrence River during this time. Did issue a brief period of small craft headlines for the upper Niagara this evening. Conditions quiet down Friday into the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042>045.

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