Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for SUNY Oswego, NY
February 17, 2025 3:39 PM EST (20:39 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:58 AM Sunset 5:40 PM Moonrise 11:06 PM Moonset 8:57 AM |
LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 932 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2025
.gale warning in effect through late tonight - .
Rest of today - West gales to 35 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Tonight - West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 12 to 17 feet subsiding to 11 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 22 feet.
Tuesday - West winds to 30 knots. Occasional lake effect snow. Waves 10 to 15 feet subsiding to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Tuesday night - Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Occasional lake effect snow in the evening, then lake effect snow showers likely overnight. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 171857 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
The remainder of this afternoon will be windy and cold with areas of blowing snow. There also will be heavy lake effect snows southeast of Lake Ontario through Wednesday morning due to strong low pressure which will remain across the Canadian Maritimes. The combination of cold weather and winds will produce wind chills well below zero tonight.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A powerful 958 mb low will gradually weaken as it meanders across the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. 850mb temps around -20C will provide plenty of lake instability, and the cyclonic flow aloft and periodic shortwaves will provide ample synoptic moisture to produce lake effect snow. More subtle features such and upstream lake connections will also play a supporting role.
The most intense snows will be southeast of Lake Ontario, where radar and satellite imagery show an upstream moisture connection extending back across Lake Huron all the way to Lake Superior. This is producing intense snows across southern Oswego County with snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour. Winds fields and mesoscale guidance suggest this band will meander slightly northward through this evening, reaching northern Oswego and far southern Lewis county before dropping back southward later tonight. The band will remain nearly stationary late tonight and Tuesday, clipping far northern portions of Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Cayuga counties at times where Lake Effect snow warnings are also in place. Expecting a total of around 2 to 3 feet across the southern half of Oswego county and far northern Cayuga County, with significant accumulations extending just north and south of this bullseye.
In addition to the lake snows, it will be windy today today with gusts of 40 to 50 mph producing areas of blowing snow and near whiteout conditions at times. This will be especially impactful near the Lake Ontario shoreline where wind gusts will be highest and where there is fresh snow in place or falling. This will produce localized whiteout conditions within and near the band, which will make travel extremely difficult to impossible. And even in areas where it's not snowing, such as higher terrain across the Southern Tier, there are considerable areas of blowing snow due to the strong winds.
There's a more muted response off of Lake Erie due to ice cover, and less upstream moisture. However, radar shows a band developing across central Lake Erie and moving into far Western New York this afternoon. Snow amounts are uncertain, and could be done by mesoscale guidance if there are more breaks in the ice cover, so decided to issue a Lake Effect snow advisory for 3 to 5 inches of snow. Another factor will be the combination of blowing snow along with the new snow. This band will taper off later tonight as deeper moisture diminishes.
It will be very chilly during the period, with wind chills below zero most of this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the single digits to below zero tonight, and this combined with the winds will lead to wind chill values as low as -15F to -25F. Cold weather advisories are in place across much of the area, except counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Arctic air will continue to settle across the eastern Great Lakes region through midweek, supporting frigid and bone chilling wind chills and the continuation of lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario.
Heading into Tuesday night, in the wake of a shortwave trough aloft and surface wave, ongoing lake effect snow will re-intensify and lie across the entirety of the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will likely lie from Wayne to southern Oswego, however, it isn't out of the question that areas to the west from Niagara to Monroe county could see several inches of snow overnight into Wednesday morning.
The lake band will then diminish throughout the day Wednesday into Wednesday night as surface high pressure builds east disrupting upstream connections and lowering inversion heights.
Otherwise, outside of the snow and with the aforementioned arctic air mass in place, expect another frigid night Tuesday night with wind chills to range between 5 and 10 degrees below zero.
Attention then turns to a mid-level closed low centered across northern Illinois and Indiana Wednesday night. This low will slide east across the Ohio Valley Thursday and exit into the northern Atlantic by Thursday night. As such, a surface low just off the coast of the Carolinas Wednesday night will track northeast along the Eastern Seaboard but well off the coast. While this low will bring impacts to the weather for the Atlantic coast, the passage of the mid-level trough late Wednesday night and Thursday will support widespread light snow to spread across the region from west to east.
Snowfall amounts will generally be between an inch or two, with little to no impacts expected.
Lingering cold air and synoptic will support a brief period of lake effect snow southeast of both lakes Thursday night.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid-level ridging will build east across the eastern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, supporting surface high pressure to push across the region. With the surface high overhead, expect a dry end to the week and into the start of the weekend.
The next trough will dive southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday resulting in a weak area of low pressure and associated warm front to slide across the region. While precipitation will likely start off as all snow, a wintry mix may work in Monday as warmer temperatures are advected into the region.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Westerly winds gusting to 30 to 35 knots will cause areas of blowing snow which will lower visibility at times at all terminals. This will also impact snow removal operations. The winds will diminish some by this evening, which will reduce the blowing snow considerably.
There will also be heavy lake effect snows southeast of Lake Ontario, which will not impact any TAF sites. However, bands may occasionally clip KROC late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
Outside of the lake effect snows and blowing snow, expecting mainly VFR flight conditions for the TAF period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night...LIFR/IFR likely within lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario, otherwise improvement to mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with areas of IFR within lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario.
Thursday...A chance of snow/associated MVFR/IFR.
Friday.. MVFR improving to VFR.
Saturday...VFR.
MARINE
Westerly flow in the wake of the departing low will generate healthy gales across all of Lake Ontario through tonight
Meanwhile
the Niagara River and Lake Erie will experience high-end advisory-level conditions. Winds will then gradually diminish Tuesday and Tuesday night...with additional Small Craft Advisories eventually becoming necessary across Lake Ontario once the gales come to an end.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ002- 003.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004>006-008.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ019-020- 085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
The remainder of this afternoon will be windy and cold with areas of blowing snow. There also will be heavy lake effect snows southeast of Lake Ontario through Wednesday morning due to strong low pressure which will remain across the Canadian Maritimes. The combination of cold weather and winds will produce wind chills well below zero tonight.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A powerful 958 mb low will gradually weaken as it meanders across the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. 850mb temps around -20C will provide plenty of lake instability, and the cyclonic flow aloft and periodic shortwaves will provide ample synoptic moisture to produce lake effect snow. More subtle features such and upstream lake connections will also play a supporting role.
The most intense snows will be southeast of Lake Ontario, where radar and satellite imagery show an upstream moisture connection extending back across Lake Huron all the way to Lake Superior. This is producing intense snows across southern Oswego County with snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour. Winds fields and mesoscale guidance suggest this band will meander slightly northward through this evening, reaching northern Oswego and far southern Lewis county before dropping back southward later tonight. The band will remain nearly stationary late tonight and Tuesday, clipping far northern portions of Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Cayuga counties at times where Lake Effect snow warnings are also in place. Expecting a total of around 2 to 3 feet across the southern half of Oswego county and far northern Cayuga County, with significant accumulations extending just north and south of this bullseye.
In addition to the lake snows, it will be windy today today with gusts of 40 to 50 mph producing areas of blowing snow and near whiteout conditions at times. This will be especially impactful near the Lake Ontario shoreline where wind gusts will be highest and where there is fresh snow in place or falling. This will produce localized whiteout conditions within and near the band, which will make travel extremely difficult to impossible. And even in areas where it's not snowing, such as higher terrain across the Southern Tier, there are considerable areas of blowing snow due to the strong winds.
There's a more muted response off of Lake Erie due to ice cover, and less upstream moisture. However, radar shows a band developing across central Lake Erie and moving into far Western New York this afternoon. Snow amounts are uncertain, and could be done by mesoscale guidance if there are more breaks in the ice cover, so decided to issue a Lake Effect snow advisory for 3 to 5 inches of snow. Another factor will be the combination of blowing snow along with the new snow. This band will taper off later tonight as deeper moisture diminishes.
It will be very chilly during the period, with wind chills below zero most of this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the single digits to below zero tonight, and this combined with the winds will lead to wind chill values as low as -15F to -25F. Cold weather advisories are in place across much of the area, except counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Arctic air will continue to settle across the eastern Great Lakes region through midweek, supporting frigid and bone chilling wind chills and the continuation of lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario.
Heading into Tuesday night, in the wake of a shortwave trough aloft and surface wave, ongoing lake effect snow will re-intensify and lie across the entirety of the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will likely lie from Wayne to southern Oswego, however, it isn't out of the question that areas to the west from Niagara to Monroe county could see several inches of snow overnight into Wednesday morning.
The lake band will then diminish throughout the day Wednesday into Wednesday night as surface high pressure builds east disrupting upstream connections and lowering inversion heights.
Otherwise, outside of the snow and with the aforementioned arctic air mass in place, expect another frigid night Tuesday night with wind chills to range between 5 and 10 degrees below zero.
Attention then turns to a mid-level closed low centered across northern Illinois and Indiana Wednesday night. This low will slide east across the Ohio Valley Thursday and exit into the northern Atlantic by Thursday night. As such, a surface low just off the coast of the Carolinas Wednesday night will track northeast along the Eastern Seaboard but well off the coast. While this low will bring impacts to the weather for the Atlantic coast, the passage of the mid-level trough late Wednesday night and Thursday will support widespread light snow to spread across the region from west to east.
Snowfall amounts will generally be between an inch or two, with little to no impacts expected.
Lingering cold air and synoptic will support a brief period of lake effect snow southeast of both lakes Thursday night.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid-level ridging will build east across the eastern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, supporting surface high pressure to push across the region. With the surface high overhead, expect a dry end to the week and into the start of the weekend.
The next trough will dive southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday resulting in a weak area of low pressure and associated warm front to slide across the region. While precipitation will likely start off as all snow, a wintry mix may work in Monday as warmer temperatures are advected into the region.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Westerly winds gusting to 30 to 35 knots will cause areas of blowing snow which will lower visibility at times at all terminals. This will also impact snow removal operations. The winds will diminish some by this evening, which will reduce the blowing snow considerably.
There will also be heavy lake effect snows southeast of Lake Ontario, which will not impact any TAF sites. However, bands may occasionally clip KROC late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
Outside of the lake effect snows and blowing snow, expecting mainly VFR flight conditions for the TAF period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night...LIFR/IFR likely within lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario, otherwise improvement to mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with areas of IFR within lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario.
Thursday...A chance of snow/associated MVFR/IFR.
Friday.. MVFR improving to VFR.
Saturday...VFR.
MARINE
Westerly flow in the wake of the departing low will generate healthy gales across all of Lake Ontario through tonight
Meanwhile
the Niagara River and Lake Erie will experience high-end advisory-level conditions. Winds will then gradually diminish Tuesday and Tuesday night...with additional Small Craft Advisories eventually becoming necessary across Lake Ontario once the gales come to an end.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ002- 003.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004>006-008.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ019-020- 085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 1 mi | 52 min | 29.82 | |||||
CAVN6 | 47 mi | 52 min | 32°F | 29.79 | ||||
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 60 mi | 70 min | 20°F |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFZY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFZY
Wind History Graph: FZY
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Northeast
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