SUNY Oswego, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for SUNY Oswego, NY

June 17, 2024 9:40 AM EDT (13:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM
Moonrise 3:39 PM   Moonset 1:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202406171500;;163498 Fzus51 Kbuf 170831 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 431 am edt Mon jun 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-171500- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 431 am edt Mon jun 17 2024

Today - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near SUNY Oswego, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 171042 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will pass across our region this morning, ushering in summer's heat and humidity. Hot and humid through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures during this time likely to reach 100F at several locations Tuesday and Wednesday. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon each day, with more coverage area to storms later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
This morning weakening convection from a convective shortwave is along the northern waters of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley. Warming cloud tops within this area of convection will shrink the area of showers this morning, with most shower activity ending by 11 am east of Lake Ontario.
Lightning, near the west and southwest side of this complex of storms, and under the colder cloud tops will likely remain over Canada this morning.

For today, a warm front will pass over our region, and this will commence the period of heat and humidity for the work week.

Heat Details...

The surface pressure gradient will increase with the passing of the shortwave aloft, with a bit of a southwesterly breeze in the 20 mph range. While not a great magnitude, this southwesterly flow behind the departed surface high will increase moisture advection through the day, with humidity notably higher through the afternoon hours.

In the wake of the warm frontal passage temperatures today will also be notably warmer as 850 hPa temperatures increase to the upper teens to around 20C. Apparent temperatures will rise into the upper 90s in the lower Genesee Valley and Western Finger lakes region, where a Heat Advisory begins noontime. Elsewhere, will be hot with high temperatures in the upper 80s and apparent temperatures in the lower 90s.

This southwesterly flow off the eastern Great Lakes will also develop a lake breeze circulation, stronger in the afternoon hours.
Deeper moisture across WNY behind the warm front may fuel a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Instability will not be lacking at all, with MUCAPE values of several thousand J/KG. Holding back the convection will be a strengthening 500 hPa ridge, but a convective shortwave over MI this morning that will near WNY this afternoon and fading of a low level capping inversion should allow for a few storms to blossom along the lake breeze boundary.

Northeast of the Lakes, skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon.

Tonight will be warm and muggy. Lows only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Mainly fair weather after evening convection wanes, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out within this muggy and still unstable atmosphere. Where it rains in the Southern Tier today and within the valleys patches of fog are possible tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in effect for the entire area as dangerous heat builds through mid week...

Surface high pressure will remained anchored along the eastern seaboard as a slow amplification of the eastern CONUS ridge takes place during the period. This will result in a deep southerly flow which will bring HOT and HUMID conditions during the day and WARM and MUGGY conditions at night.

Mid level ridge builds into the region Tuesday with 850 mb temperatures climbing to +20C. This will allow surface temperatures to soar into the lower 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s. Surface dewpoints will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s with PWAT values 1.5 inches or greater. The combination of the heat and humidity will send apparent temperatures into the upper 90s to lower 100s from midday through the afternoon.
Some scattered afternoon convection could develop as diurnal instability increases within the heat, with initiation along a lake breeze boundary or across higher terrain. Any convection will wane into the evening hours. The very warm airmass will persist through Tuesday night with overnight lows only dropping into the lower to mid 70s for most locations.

Mid level ridge will be firmly in place Wednesday with ensembles showing heights around approaching 600 dm. 850 mb temperatures stay around +20C. With the region underneath the ridge, chance of convection should be less than Tuesday, potentially making Wednesday a HOTTER day than Tuesday. Most high temperatures again in the lower 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s, with apparent temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s from midday through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
...Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue For The Region Through At Least Thursday...

Model consensus shows the axis of the anomalously strong nearly 600 decameter ridge will be just to our south and southeast Thursday, just a slight jog from its position on Wednesday. This may bring 500 mb heights down just a smidge, along with surface temperatures/dew points possibly a couple of degrees cooler. All in all, very similar to the hot and steamy conditions expected for Tuesday/Wednesday, which will make Thursday the most oppressive day of the long term period with heat index values again ranging from the mid 90s to very low 100s for the bulk of western and northcentral NY.

Positioning/proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most, if not all convection, especially across western NY. Better chance for an isolated shower/storm would be toward the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.

A very gradual day-to-day 'cooling' is then expected for the Fri-Sun timeframe as successive shortwaves traversing eastward through central and eastern Canada slowly suppress the ridge to the south, leaving a quasi-zonal flow in place across the CONUS by the end of the period. That said, still want to emphasize that conditions are still going to remain very warm to hot with elevated humidity levels. In terms of temperatures, upper 80s/low 90s Friday will slowly trend downward to the mid and upper 80s by the end of the weekend, with the highest elevations several degrees cooler respectively on any given day. Heat index values will reach the low to mid 90s for all of the lower terrain Friday afternoon, upper 80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon, and mid 80s to near 90 by Sunday.

In terms of precipitation, there will be some increase in convection potential as we close out the work week and head into next weekend.
This will be owed to mainly two things: Upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper ridge passing closer and closer to the area as the center of the ridge slowly sags further south through the period, while a surface boundary also sags south toward the region from Canada. Areas that do receive some showers/storms, will enjoy some relief, however any reprieve will only be temporary.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions are expected to remain through the end of the TAF cycle with surface high pressure nearby. There will be a slight southwest breeze this afternoon for KIAG and KBUF off Lake Erie, and southwest breeze for KART off Lake Ontario. Gusts will end in the 22-00Z timeframe.

Showers this morning will be near KART through the first few hours of the TAF cycle.

There will be a low chance for afternoon convection on lake breeze or terrain induced boundaries this afternoon...generally across the inland Southern Tier and into the Finger Lakes region.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes.

CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 1 mi53 minS 1.9G1.9 72°F 30.0360°F
45215 3 mi75 min 67°F 64°F1 ft
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi41 minSSE 7.8G19 64°F 63°F2 ft30.07
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 47 mi41 minSSE 7.8G9.7 62°F 59°F30.0660°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 58 mi41 minESE 6G7 73°F 30.08
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi53 min 73°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 11 sm46 minS 0710 smClear75°F61°F61%30.08
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Wind History graph: FZY
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Montague, NY,




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