Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
SUNY Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:02PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 11:27 AM EDT (15:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201908210915;;960952 Fzus51 Kbuf 210215 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1015 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-210915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1015 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms again later in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near SUNY Oswego, NY
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location: 43.46, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211431
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1031 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Warm and muggy conditions across the region today will give way to
notably cooler and less humid weather for the remainder of the
week... As a cold front will move through the forecast area tonight.

While this front could spark a few more thunderstorms... The threat
for severe weather and additional hydrology issues has diminished.

Near term through tonight
An MCV and low level warm frontal boundary pushed across the region
earlier this morning... And this resulted in some heavy rain and
gusty thunderstorms. Both of these features have since pushed away
across the st lawrence valley and adirondacks as the rain is in the
process of ending across the north country. Subsidence in the wake
of the MCV is leading to clearing that is now (14z) working its way
across the western counties... And this will set the stage for more
convection later in the afternoon.

While southerly winds will generally found across the far western
counties as of 14z... Winds will veer more to the southwest as we
work through the midday into the afternoon. This will enhance a lake
breeze that is expected to become established downwind of lake erie.

The resulting lake breeze boundary will push east across the genesee
valley and western southern tier to the finger lakes after 17z and
will encounter an increasingly unstable environment featuring
sbcapes of 1000-1500 j kg. Bulk shear values will not be overly
impressive though (avg 20kts)... So am not anticipating renewed
significant weather. Pwat values in the vcnty of 1.5" though could
encourage pockets of locally heavy rain though... Mainly over the
southern tier and finger lakes region. That being said... The
coverage for the possible convection should not be nearly as
widespread as that from early this morning.

Otherwise this afternoon will be warm and humid with 70 degree dew
points being accompanied by temperatures that will largely range
from the low to mid 80s.

A cold front will gradually push to the south across our forecast
area tonight. Other than a very modest 30kt low level jet and some
convergence near and ahead of this boundary... There really is not
much forcing to support widespread pcpn. A strong h25 jet will pass
to our north... But it will be in the 'wrong' place to give any
additional lift from the upper levels. It is interesting to note
though... That most if not all of the guidance packages are grossly
under estimating the strength of the ul jet. Aircraft across
minnesota have measured winds >160kts with this jet... But upper air
soundings have only been able to 'capture' winds of 115 to 120kts.

As mentioned though... The position of the jet is more important and
this is not favorable for significant weather production. In any
case... Will use chc pops for showers and thunderstorms.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Upper level trough that drops across lower great lakes and northeast
conus late this week will still be mainly north and west of the
region on Thursday. Though primary cold front sweeps across by late
Wednesday night, strongest cold air advection will lag the fropa,
not really arriving until Friday. Strong upper jet over 110 kts on
leading side of upper trough and another weaker shortwave area of
deeper moisture may trigger isolated showers over southern tier
during peak heating Thursday afternoon, but otherwise dry weather
should prevail though skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High
temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s, coolest in the
southern tier and to east of lake ontario. Most clouds will fade on
Thursday night though some clouds will persist closer to eastern
lake ontario. With the clearing skies and temperatures falling into
into the upper 40s at the coolest, could be valley fog over the
southern tier.

Cold air advection continues into Friday with h85 temps down to +7c
or +8c by daybreak Friday. NW flow across the much warmer temps of
lake ontario (averaging 21c at mid lake) will result in a
conditionally unstable airmass for lake effect processes. Other than
a thin moist layer around 800mb 5-6kft, soundings look dry. There
could be just enough over-water instability and low-level
convergence for a few showers downstream of southeast lake ontario.

Any showers, if they occur, will become disrupted and disorganized
by late Friday morning due to daytime heating and strong subsidence.

Another day of expanding stratocu clouds with partly to mostly
cloudy skies by afternoon. High temps will be in the lower 70s most
locations. After clouds clear out Friday evening, clearing skies and
cool temps could lead to another night with some valley fog in the
southern tier.

On Saturday, high pressure will be firmly in control of weather
across the region. Though ECMWF still looks overdone with depiction
of closed off upper low sinking across the mid atlantic, think a
weaker secondary shortwave dropping across southern quebec and new
england could lead to some isolated showers east of lake ontario.

Probably will just see an enhancement to clouds more than anything
else, especially with upslope northerly flow developing by that
time. High temps on Saturday begin to tick upward, mainly in the mid
70s. Low temps on Saturday night stay seasonably cool with readings
in the 50s across the board.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Sunday features dry weather as high pressure persists. The more
sluggish ECMWF would result in more clouds, but still thinking it is
overplaying the amount of upper level troughing. Temps will rebound
further with readings into the
medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly
the ridge slides further east and out to sea... And gives way to the
next trough and associated moisture approaching from the west. The
gfs remains fastest with this overall scenario and brings increasing
chances for convection into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the
other side of the guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and
our region totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a
general distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the
latter scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With
only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday.

Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm
air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming
trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on
Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditons will be found across the region this afternoon and
evening... Although a developing lake breeze boundary should help to
re-ignite some thunderstorms well south and east of buffalo and
rochester.

Tonight... A cold front will gradually push across the region. While
this feature should generate more scattered convection... The vast
majority of the area should continue to experienceVFR weather. The
exception will be across the southern tier and possibly the north
country... Where late night fog and stratus could lead to MVFR to ifr
flight rules.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local MVFR ifr conditions each morning.

Marine
A southwesterly flow will increase today ahead of a cold front with
waves building to 2-4 feet on lake erie during the midday and
afternoon. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes this
evening and early overnight, with waves and winds increasing within
the cold air advection environment.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet tonight and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario will bring waves up to 5 feet
or greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories have been issued.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes this evening.

Strengthening west to northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce significant shoreline erosion and flooding late tonight
through late Thursday afternoon. A lakeshore flood warning is
now in effect for wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties.

Since winds will be more westerly and not as much onshore, the
lakeshore flood watch was dropped for niagara, orleans and
monroe counties.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt Thursday for
nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt Thursday for
loz042.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for
loz045.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Jla
long term... Jla jjr
aviation... Rsh
marine... Hitchcock jla
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 1 mi64 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 1011.8 hPa68°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi88 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 73°F1 ft1011.6 hPa (-0.1)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 47 mi38 min SSW 9.7 G 12 71°F 71°F1 ft1011.8 hPa67°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 58 mi88 min SSE 6 G 7 70°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi64 min 72°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi34 minSW 310.00 miLight Rain72°F68°F87%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W6W53Calm----CalmCalmCalmSE3----------E3--3W9------SW3
1 day agoW9W10W9W9--W10
G16
W10NW7NW4CalmCalm----------CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm--3
2 days agoS65S8S7S7S6S6S53CalmCalm----3--Calm----CalmS4S5S4W6W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.