Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 2:53 PM EDT (18:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 12:54PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202008112130;;292691 Fzus51 Kbuf 111746 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 146 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-112130- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 146 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 73 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 111827 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 227 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening. This will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly dry weather will then return Wednesday through the end of the week, with temperatures remaining above average.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level trough is moving into the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon with several weak surface boundaries moving east across the region. The airmass is plenty buoyant with MLCAPE east of the Genesee Valley generally 500-1000J/kg, highest east of Lake Ontario and into the St Lawrence Valley. Best chance of convective initiation follows this accordingly along both the above noted and locally generated lake breeze boundaries. It's starting to look like there will be several broken lines . one is already forming east of Lake Ontario, while another more mature line moves east along the N side of Lake Ontario toward the St Lawrence Valley later this afternoon/eve. This line should be the strongest. There may be another weak line along the KIAG-KROC lake breeze boundary late this afternoon/eve as well.

All of this should be falling apart or east of the region by around 00Z this evening, with a quiet night to follow. With a cooling airmass however with increasing surface pressure (surface high approaching the Ohio Valley Wed morning), expect abundant valley fog development overnight and into Wednesday morning.

Once this mixes out, expect a quiet day for Wed with generally light winds and sunny or mostly sunny skies except for some passing cirrus. Afternoon temperatures should still be able to reach the lower to mid 80s, but dew points are expected to fall throughout the day and result in a more comfortable day overall when compared to recent afternoons.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan Wednesday morning will track eastward through the day. Dry conditions with mostly sunny skies expected across western and north central NY. High pressure remains across the region through Thursday with mostly dry conditions. A stationary front will persist across Pennsylvania through Friday. This will keep most of the region dry with only a slight chance of showers and storms across the western Southern Tier Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s Wednesday-Friday with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure tracks east across Quebec and New England Saturday and Sunday. Moisture will likely be able to enter western NY which will result in daily chances of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend with coverage best during the afternoon and early evening. A cold front crossing the area Monday will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will run above average through most of the period with highs mostly in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s. Cooler weather expected by Monday.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. An upper level trough and associated surface boundary will move east through Western NY into the afternoon and evening. Several convective lines are expected this afternoon. One has already formed east of Lake Ontario, while another one upstream is moving east along the N side of Lake Ontario. Instability and hence a potential for stronger storms exists east and north of Lake Ontario into the St Lawrence Valley. Another weak line may briefly form between KIAG-KROC late this afternoon/eve.

Most of this should diminish in intensity and/or be east of the region by about 00Z. Thereafter, the main concern will be the development of locally dense valley fog with associated LIFR conditions. However most TAF locations will not be affected by this with VFR conditions tonight into Wednesday.

Outlook .

Thursday and Friday . Mainly VFR with local IFR in river valley fog across the Southern Tier each late night and morning. Saturday and Sunday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory winds and waves will continue on Lake Erie today. Southwest winds will also increase on Lake Ontario with choppy conditions on much of the lake. The location and direction of the strongest winds suggests most of the Small Craft Advisory winds and waves will remain in Canadian waters.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes this evening, with winds and waves quickly diminishing. Relatively light winds are then expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ004>007-014. Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/Zaff NEAR TERM . Zaff SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK/TMA AVIATION . Zaff MARINE . Hitchcock/Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi59 min W 11 G 16 82°F 1010.1 hPa70°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi53 min WSW 12 G 16 78°F 77°F2 ft1009.3 hPa (-0.5)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi33 min WSW 16 G 19 78°F 75°F1009.7 hPa73°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi53 min SW 13 G 21 84°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi59 min 85°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi59 minSSW 8 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F64°F45%1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W5NW6W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE3Calm43SE4S9S7S10S13SW12
G17
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1 day agoSW86SW3NW7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW3SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmS5SW5SW7
2 days agoNW8N46NW5NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3S5SW54SW9S8S8
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.