Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 11:07 AM EST (16:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 5:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 331 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers through the morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south and diminishing to less than 10 knots overnight. Lake effect snow. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201912101600;;130294 FZUS51 KBUF 100858 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-101600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 101506 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1006 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Colder air will continue to move into Western and Central New York today behind a cold front. Gusty southwest to west winds will relax some this afternoon and evening, while scattered snow showers become concentrated southeast of the lakes. Lake effect snow will then move north across Buffalo and Watertown areas Wednesday morning, then back south again in the afternoon. Lake bands will weaken southeast of the lakes Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Temperatures continue to drop throughout the region this morning as a cold front moves east across Central NY. This cold front is associated with a storm system that is deepening as it crosses central Quebec this morning. Westerly cold air advection behind this system will continue to result some gusty winds (in the 30 mph range) while the surface pressure relaxes this afternoon.

Aloft, an upper level trough has reached the Great Lakes region, but a strong upper level SW-NE subtropical jet maxing out near 190 kts over lower MI has resulted in somewhat disconnected features, forcing above noted initial surface low well to the north and slowing the coldest air aloft. Thus the cold front is initially somewhat shallow and lacking any arctic air and definitely lacking synoptic moisture.

Still, upstream lake responses are already underway with sufficient low level moisture and a relatively low cap of around 5000-7000'. Expect weak bands to develop over western and central Lake Erie by midday and move into Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties by afternoon. Initial accumulation should be generally around an inch or so within the bands, while other areas may see scattered non- accumulating snow showers or flurries as the progressively colder air moves in with lacking moisture.

East of Lake Erie .

Early this evening, westerly flow along the Chautauqua Ridge and sufficient lapse rates supportive of lake effect processes will result in a period of lake effect snow through the evening hours. Advisory level snow (>4") is expected overnight over the western portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. After midnight, the synoptic flow will back in response to the eastward progression of the upper level trough. This will begin to move the snow band northward for the second half of the night. The band of snow may weaken briefly with increasing shear. But as southwesterly winds align over Lake Erie, we should see the band of snow again increase in intensity over the eastern end of Lake Erie before Wednesday morning. During the duration of the night, lacking synoptic moisture and a relatively low cap should keep snow rates down to under 1"/hr.

East of Lake Ontario .

Meanwhile, lake effect snow is also expected to form along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario over Wayne and Cayuga counties. An upstream connection to Lake Huron on a westerly wind could enhance totals with a narrow 2-4 inches of snow possible. Confidence is not as high as Lake Erie, as a subtle shift in the wind flow will effect the upstream Lake Huron connection. This band is expected to begin to move north late tonight with the approach of the upper level trough.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The main focus through the short term period will be lake effect snow on Wednesday. The frequent and rapid movement of the bands will keep accumulations relatively low, but brief heavy bursts of snow and winds gusting up to 35 knots will produce at least a moderate impact to travel with brief periods of very poor visibility. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, more for the impact of the brief burst of heavy snow and blowing snow rather than total accumulations.

A mid level shortwave and associated clipper low will pass well north of our region through Ontario and Quebec Wednesday, with the trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes during the afternoon. The clipper cold front itself will be moisture starved with little in the way of synoptic scale sensible weather. However, it will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment. Convergence along the advancing cold front will merge with pre- existing lake induced convergence over both lakes, resulting in intensifying bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 12K feet with the passage of the clipper as moisture improves and a pool of cold air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be located within the cloud bearing layer, yielding dendritic growth.

Off Lake Erie .

A band of lake effect snow will move north across the Buffalo area during the early to mid morning Wednesday. Some shear and dry air in the boundary layer may limit the intensity of the band as it moves north, but it still may produce enough snow to impact morning travel. The band of snow will briefly make it all the way north to Grand Island and southern portions of Niagara County and western Orleans county during the late morning and midday. The band will then begin to drift back south and east and start to intensify with the approach of the cold front and associated improving environment for lake effect.

The band will then cross again the Buffalo metro area with a brief burst of moderate to heavy lake effect snow from an added boost of synoptic support from the front, and increasing lake induced instability. The band of heavy snow will then move onshore from Buffalo all the way down to Chautauqua County and push inland through the Southern Tier through the late afternoon. The band of snow will continue for a few hours across the western Southern Tier Wednesday evening before quickly weakening as inversion heights lower, shear increases, and moisture decreases with high pressure building over Lake Erie.

The fast pace of the snow band movement will greatly limit accumulations, even though the band of snow may be quite heavy. Accumulations Wednesday and Wednesday evening are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range assuming the band does not stall in any one spot for long. Even though amounts will be limited, if the brief burst of heavy snow materializes it would produce very difficult travel for a few hours. Winds will also gust to around 35 knots at this time, producing significant blowing and drifting snow.

Off Lake Ontario .

Expect a similar trend on Lake Ontario. The disorganized lake effect snow showers over the lake will push to the northeast end to near Kingston Ontario, possibly clipping Cape Vincent in northern Jefferson County Wednesday morning. The band of snow will then intensify during the early to mid afternoon over the Thousand Islands region as the front approaches and synoptic support improves.

This intensifying band of snow will then move southeast across Jefferson County, crossing the Tug Hill region during the evening. The band will reach maximum intensity during this time frame as the best lake parameters line up with a period of upslope flow across the Tug Hill. The band will continue to march steadily southeast overnight, with a WNW to ESE oriented band of weakening lake snow moving into southern Oswego County, and possibly clipping northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. A few snow showers may also clip the south shore farther west overnight from eastern Niagara to Monroe counties as boundary layer flow veers, but accumulations will be minor and localized in this area.

Similar to Lake Erie, the short residence time of the band in any one location will limit accumulations. Expect 2-4 inches across the lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday and Wednesday night, with up to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties may see a few inches overnight Wednesday night if the band makes it that far south. While amounts are not overly impressive, this band may produce very difficult travel for a few hours with heavy snow and 35 knot wind gusts producing significant blowing and drifting.

High pressure builds overhead Thursday with any lake snows in the morning quickly diminishing off both lakes. Any additional accumulations in the morning will likely be minor, with the best chances southeast Lake Ontario. This is where an additional inch or so could be found. Otherwise, expect one more cold day across the eastern Great Lakes with highs peaking in the 20s to around 30 areawide.

Thursday night, the surface high will drift off the New England coast. The onset of warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring an increase in mid/high clouds, but any precipitation associated with the warm front will stay well north of our region. Dry weather will continue Friday. Ongoing warm advection will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s in most areas, with 30s limited to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A complex system will then cross our region this weekend. A southern stream trough will support low pressure developing over the Gulf coast Friday. The resulting low will move northward along the east coast late Friday through Saturday. This southern stream trough will phase with a northern stream trough moving towards the western lakes, allowing an expansive area of deep layer ascent to move north across our area late Friday night and Saturday. This will produce another round of rain areawide. There is a small chance the rain may start as a wintry mix across the North Country if precipitation begins early enough, otherwise this looks to be an all rain event as temperatures warm into the 40s on Saturday.

The northern stream portion of this phasing system will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, producing additional chances of rain and wet snow as colder air moves back into the region. The latest 00Z GFS and ECMWF are more aggressive with precipitation Saturday night and Sunday, possibly supporting some snow accumulation, especially across higher terrain. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

This system will move out into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night and Monday. Colder air moving into the Great Lakes in its wake will support a chance of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front has moved into Central NY. Mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs along with W gusty winds, and scattered flurries or light snow snow showers will be found in the post frontal environment, although some lake effect showers are expected to develop over Lake Erie before 18Z and possibly affect KJHW by 21Z.

Some lake banding will become a little more focused over the Western Southern Tier, including KJHW tonight, while a Lake Ontario band forms between KROC and KFZY, eventually moving into KFZY. Both bands will begin to move north late tonight.

Outlook .

Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow ENE of the lakes. Wednesday night and Thursday morning . IFR in lake effect snow to the SE of the lakes. Thursday afternoon . becoming VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely.

MARINE. A cold front will cross the Eastern Great Lakes this morning, with southwesterly winds becoming westerly with associated Small Craft Advisories on the Lakes and Upper Niagara River. Winds will begin to relax later today with winds falling below SCA levels on the Niagara River by late this morning. However, SCA conditions into Wednesday night on Lake Erie. Over Lake Ontario, SCAs will increase to low end gales on Wednesday, with SCAs over the nearshore waters south of the lake.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall Monday through early Tuesday totaled a half to three quarters of an inch in areas where the rain fell the greatest based on area mesonets and surface observations. This rain and snowmelt has been handled by area creeks and streams . with just a few creeks in WNY (including Cayuga Creek) peaking in low action stage. Creeks and slower responding Black River will continue to slowly rise east of Lake Ontario today and tomorrow. The Black River at Boonville is forecasted to peak in low action Wednesday morning . and near action level at Watertown Thursday.

Based on this, we will continue to highlight creeks east of Lake Ontario and the Black River in the HWO for flooding risk. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the situation continues to bear watching.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A period of low end gale force winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. A Lakeshore Flood Watch has been issued for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008. Lakeshore Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ010-011. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045-063>065. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ062. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ044- 045.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas/Zaff NEAR TERM . Thomas/Zaff SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Thomas/Zaff MARINE . Thomas/Zaff HYDROLOGY . Thomas TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi68 min WNW 23 G 30 1007.3 hPa (+4.3)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi68 min WNW 22 G 26 40°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi74 min 40°F 1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi74 minWNW 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast42°F33°F71%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day ago5S10
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2 days agoNW12NW11
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NW10W9W6CalmCalmSW5S3S4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE3SE35SE66665

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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