NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Visible satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across the region early this evening, with just a few small patches of clouds from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Mainly clear skies will continue overnight, with some river valley fog once again across the Southern Tier, and some patchy fog east of Lake Ontario.

High pressure and a developing Rex Block will result in dry conditions and mainly clear skies through Friday and beyond.
Wildfire smoke well aloft will continue through Friday, as noted by satellite trends and HRRR Smoke model guidance. This will produce a haze to the sky, but little to no smoke is expected to make it to ground level. Winds will remain generally light across the area, with local lake breeze circulations developing again Friday afternoon.

Lows tonight will drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most areas, with some low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country. Highs Friday will continue to run close to 10 degrees above average, with highs in the low to mid 80s for lower elevations and upper 70s high terrain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
During this period the core of stout upper level ridging will drift from the Upper Great Lakes to New York State...while its center of its associated surface ridge settles from Quebec to a position just off the New England coastline. All this will keep the remains of TD Francine confined to the Deep South...where these will slowly meander in place through the weekend. As a result we can expect our period of warm dry summerlike weather to continue right through the weekend...with nightly lows mostly in the 50s and daily highs ranging from the upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower- mid 80s across the lower elevations...though a northeasterly low level flow will help to keep areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler both days. While there will also be a general dearth of cloud cover...some wildfire smoke well aloft may lend a hazy look to the sky at times.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As we move into next week...the stout upper level ridge will gradually drift southeastward and reorient itself so that its core will extend from New England southeastward into the western Atlantic...while also becoming largely co-located with the spine of its attendant surface ridge. While this transition will take place slowly enough to allow fair dry weather to persist across our region through Monday night or even Tuesday...by midweek this should allow a southeasterly flow of increasing Atlantic-based moisture into our region...with this possibly coming in association with a surface low (which could be potentially subtropical or tropical in nature)
pushing inland across the Carolinas. While there is still plenty of uncertainty on when this moisture might make it into our region...
there is enough of a general signal in the guidance to warrant at least some clouds and slight chance of showers spreading across areas south of Lake Ontario in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
Otherwise warmer than normal temperatures will continue...though daily highs will tend to pull back to the mid-upper 70s and nightly lows will climb into the mid 50s-lower 60s owing to the increase in Atlantic moisture.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will continue to bring mainly clear skies and light winds through Friday and beyond. Some localized river valley fog will develop across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario overnight through Friday morning with local IFR. This has not impacted the hilltop KJHW airfield the past few nights, so went with that trend for tonight as well. Otherwise, VFR will continue to prevail elsewhere.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. Patchy fog with local IFR each late night and morning, mainly across the river valleys of the Southern Tier.

MARINE
High pressure dominating the region will result in mainly light winds and negligible wave action on the Lakes right through the upcoming weekend. The light winds and strong differential heating will allow lake breezes to form most days, with a local onshore flow developing each afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.