Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glide, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 4:40PM Sunday December 15, 2019 11:08 AM PST (19:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 906 Am Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NE wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 ft at 13 seconds...subsiding to 8 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Mon night..SE wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 9 ft.
Tue..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. W swell 8 to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft. Chance of rain.
Wed..S wind 20 kt...rising to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft... Building to 9 ft. W swell 9 ft.
Thu..S wind 30 kt...becoming sw 20 kt in the afternoon, then... Backing to S in the evening...rising to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 10 ft...subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon, then... Building to 9 to 11 ft. W swell 8 ft...building to 12 ft.
PZZ300 906 Am Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate southerly winds may build into the northern waters by this evening, as a weak front moves towards shore. Seas will subside below advisory criteria late tonight into Monday. This will be short- lived, however, as another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. This front will bring increasing southerly winds Tuesday night and Wednesday, and will build seas to a very steep state.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glide, OR
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location: 43.52, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 151720 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 920 AM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

DISCUSSION. Made some updates to the forecast for today. The main change was to remove pops along the coast and northwest part of the forecast area. The latest operational models and high res short range models show no QPF for today. This comes as no surprise since upper ridging is building into the area. With that said, plenty of low level moisture is in the area and could not rule out patchy drizzle for the next couple of hours in portions of the Rogue, Illinois Valley and Umpqua Basin, but no measurable rain is expected.

A warm front will move north of the area with high and mid level clouds moving in from the northwest over the lower cloud deck west of the Cascades later today.

There's good agreement dry weather will continue through Tuesday. The upper ridge axis will move over the area Monday, then east Tuesday as an upper trough pushes east towards our area. There's good agreement the upper trough will split with an upper low moving into the Bay area Tuesday night. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 15/12Z TAFs . Isolated showers will continue overnight, tapering off by early Sunday morning. Expect a mix of MVFR/IFR with widespread terrain obscurations with local areas of LIFR possible in snow showers, especially east of the Cascades. There should be enough lingering cloud cover to preclude widespread fog development in the valleys until early Sunday morning. Conditions should gradually improve to at least MVFR late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Widespread IFR conditions will develop again by Monday morning in the west side valleys. Sven

MARINE. Updated 245 AM PST Sunday, 15 December 2019 . Heavy and steep long period swell will remain high into Sunday, with winds diminishing this evening and overnight. Seas will continue to diminish tonight into Sunday, finally subsiding below advisory criteria late Sunday into Monday. This will be short-lived, however, as another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. This front will bring increasing southerly winds Tuesday night and Wednesday, and with building seas, conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft. Sven

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 543 AM PST Sun Dec 15 2019/

DISCUSSION . The focus is already much more so on the long term rather than the short term forecast. In the short term, conditions will be relatively benign and the forecast is largely consistent with the previous issuance. The snow level is low this morning, around 2000 feet, but lingering showers and snow showers will be few and far between . with an additional dusting on mainly on west-northwest facing slopes of the higher terrain. A ridge will build into the region tonight into Monday then linger into Tuesday night. During this period, the weak and weakening southern edge of a warm front will brush past Coos and Douglas Counties late Sunday night/early Monday morning with a slight chance of light drizzly showers for the coast to the Umpqua Divide and the Cascades north of Prospect. Otherwise, the main impact will be areas of mainly night and morning valley low clouds and fog through Wednesday morning.

With the Christmas travel period on the horizon, the natural inclination is to want to be as definitive as possible as soon as possible with the long term forecast. But, it is still too early to go much beyond broad proclamations. Beginning Wednesday, there quite reasonably remain significant differences between GEFS ensemble members, more so than the differences between the operational run of the GFS and the ECMWF models. There is a high probability that an active and complex pattern will begin to affect our area on Wednesday (at least southern Siskiyou County) or Wednesday night (in a larger swath of the area) with a continuing series of disturbances through the weekend, possibly through Christmas itself.

As this active period commences on Wednesday, the initial impacts will be mainly out of our area with a split pattern aloft. The northern branch of the jet stream will be aimed at Canada stretching into Washington while a weakening but not weak southern stream trough still appears to be aimed at northern California. The latest model run has trended slightly farther north with the track, producing the highest precipitation amounts for the coast range and Sierra Nevada, mainly north of San Francisco and Sacramento extending northward into the far southern end of the Cascades . as far north as Mount Shasta. The snow level is forecast to be near a seasonally typical value of about 3500 to 4000 feet. This would produce snow for Mount Shasta City, and Snowmans Hill Summit near the mountain, but most likely less than 2 inches of snow with more impressive totals in the Sierra/well to the south.

There is an increased confidence in the late Wednesday night timing of the arrival of a strengthening wave along an approaching cold front. This should lead to a period of wet, wintry weather for the Pacific Northwest and northern California at least through much of the weekend. Forecast concerns during this period include the amount and timing of heavy rains to the coast (with a potential for flooding of not only creeks and streams but also coastal main stem rivers), the timing and especially the extent to which moderate or heavy precipitation spreads inland, snow levels, and wind speeds. A main complicating factor is the expected evolution of the upper level pattern during this time from a westerly flow to a highly amplified meridional (south to north) flow with a broad building ridge over the Rocky Mountains and a broad/deep trough far offshore extending all the way from the Gulf of Alaska to offshore of Mexico. The speed and location of that transition will have a major influence on the forecast.

This also leads to an expectation that a series of weaker (less wet or windy) but colder disturbances may be in store for the holiday week.

The bottom line is that it is too early to tell which days will be best or worst for travel, given the amount of uncertainty in precipitation amounts and snow levels. But, please stay tuned to the future forecast updates.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 81 mi92 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 51°F1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR35 mi75 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRBG

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE3SW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmS3SE4S4CalmCalmS33CalmS5CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago4SW9W11SW10SW63CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Sun -- 04:00 AM PST     6.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:06 AM PST     2.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:50 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:43 PM PST     7.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:02 PM PST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.83.44.85.76.15.854.13.32.93.245.26.37.27.36.85.74.12.40.8-0.3-0.7-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:45 AM PST     6.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:51 AM PST     2.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:50 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:28 PM PST     7.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:47 PM PST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.85.15.965.64.83.83.22.93.34.35.56.67.37.36.65.33.720.5-0.4-0.7-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.