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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 805 Am Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
Today..W wind 5 kt...backing to S early in the afternoon, then...backing to se late afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tonight..E wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se early in the morning. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 3 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds...subsiding to 5 ft at 11 seconds in the afternoon. SWell less than 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves W 7 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 14 seconds...building to 11 ft at 13 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..S wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 7 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 12 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 9 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Mon..N wind 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 5 seconds...shifting to the nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds...subsiding to 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt...veering to se after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 3 seconds...shifting to the E 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Less than 2 ft.

PZZ300 805 Am Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively light wind speeds are expected over the waters through tonight. However, steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell with a small craft advisory in place through this morning. The next front arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas. A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds.

FXUS66 KMFR 081827 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1027 AM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION
Areas of fog and low clouds are confined to the Rogue Valley, and is expected to linger through the morning hours before lifting to a low overcast. Meanwhile low clouds are also in the Grants Pass area, Illinois Valley, and Scott Valley. A few showers are showing up on radar, but they will dissipate in the next few hours with dry conditions from late morning into this afternoon.

Dry weather is likely tonight, with most locations dry Saturday as the bulk of the precipitation with the warm front expected to stay north of our areas. Some light rain could slip through in northern Coos and northwest Douglas County Saturday, with dry weather likely elsewhere. Please see previous discussion for more details.

-Petrucelli

AVIATION
08/18Z TAFs...Low ceilings and some fog still lingers in many valleys across the region this morning. There is also a higher cloud deck moving over head, which very well cloud slow the burn off of some of this fog. However, it is slowly lifting here in the Rogue Valley and there is some movement of these lower ceilings on satellite, which suggests these IFR to LIFR ceilings should lift by this afternoon with enough sun.

By later this evening into tonight, lower ceilings and fog will build back into the valleys as high pressure builds in. Some of this fog could be freezing fog as temperatures in the west side valleys should be dropping into the upper 20's overnight. The presence of higher clouds ahead of the warm front could keep us warmer than what is current in the forecast. Otherwise, anticipate more areas of IFR to LIFR ceilings later tonight in the valleys with VFR ceilings along the coast.

-Smith

MARINE
Updated 200 AM Friday December 8, 2023...While wind speeds have decreased, steep seas will persist into the morning due to ongoing west swell. A small craft advisory remains in effect until 10 this morning.

Winds and seas will briefly diminish today into early Saturday as high pressure builds in. The next frontal system arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with an initial front focused north of our area Saturday then a stronger disturbance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas are expected with a 40 percent chance of gales north of Cape Arago.

A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds into Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty increases beyond Tuesday. But, conditions are likely to briefly improve at mid- week with an active pattern resuming late in the week.

-Guerrero/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 252 AM PST Fri Dec 8 2023/

DISCUSSION...The upper level trough that moved through the area yesterday is now heading into the Great Basin/Intermountain West.
West-northwesterly, moist, onshore flow will continue this morning resulting in some showers from the coast to the Cascades. Most of the moisture will be directed into the Cascades from Highway 140 northward. There's a high probability (60-80%) of another 2-3 inches of snow up at Crater Lake. A winter weather advisory is in effect, but this will be allowed to expire at 4 am. Snow levels are currently down to around 2500 feet. While there might be a little snow accumulation on the Umpqua Divide (Highway 227 south of Tiller and north of Shady Cove), most areas below that elevation won't see any snow. Meanwhile, high pressure offshore will begin to build into the area today with upper level heights rising rapidly into this afternoon. What showers do linger into this afternoon will diminish and end. The air mass will remain on the chilly side, despite some sunny breaks this afternoon. Highs will range from the 20s in the mountains to the 30s over the east side and in NE California with mid 40s for most west side valleys.
Some coastal locations could reach the low 50s.

Tonight, the upper ridge axis will move in overhead. Overall, skies will be clear to partly cloudy. Good radiational cooling should result in some fog formation for the valleys west of the Cascades, including the Rogue/Illinois/Coquille and Umpqua basins. Some areas will drop to around or just below freezing and this could result in freezing fog, so be aware of possible slick spots on roads and reduced visibility due to fog/frzg fog into Saturday morning.

Despite upper ridging, the next system (a warm front) will move toward the coast on Saturday allowing cloud cover to increase.
Rain chances will increase as well, especially in the afternoon.
We're anticipating most of the rain associated with the warm front will move onshore well to the north of our CWA, but some light rain is possible in portions of Coos and northern Douglas counties. With the air mass warming aloft, and even though we're not expecting precipitation to reach that far inland, snow levels will rise back to above 5000 feet over the Cascades.

The associated cold front will then press slowly south and eastward with time Saturday night into Sunday with precip probabilities increasing just about everywhere except far south and east sections. We're not expecting a lot of rain with this system, especially considering the deluge most areas west of the Cascades got the first week of December. But, additional beneficial precip of 0.50-1.00 inch will be common along the coast with 0.25-0.50 inland from about the Illinois Valley to the Umpqua Divide and the Cascades north of Lake of the Woods. A few hundredths to a tenth of an inch are possible in and around Medford. Most areas south and east of Klamath Falls probably won't see much, if any, measurable precipitation. Post-frontal showers will continue Sunday night in NW flow aloft, but these will diminish and end Monday morning. Upper ridging is expected to develop Monday into Tuesday with a period dry weather. Models are showing a front approaching from the Pacific on Wednesday, but still some uncertainty here with timing and strength. The front could fall apart completely or bring a chance of rain, especially coast/Umpqua to the Cascades later Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Otherwise the mid to late week period will see some warming aloft and some night and morning into early afternoon fog conditions for the inland valleys. Some of this fog in the Rogue Valley and south will be of the freezing variety. Lows over the east side will be around 15-20 degrees with colder pockets. Looks wet again next weekend with guidance showing a stronger low approaching from the southwest Friday night or Saturday. NBM still indicating a 40-50% chance of 6 inches of snow across the Cascades near Crater Lake and Willamette Pass.

-Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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Reedsport
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:00 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:14 AM PST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:39 AM PST     6.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:04 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:44 PM PST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:47 PM PST     4.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:59 AM PST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:24 AM PST     6.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:04 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM PST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM PST     4.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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