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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 901 Am Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds will diminish today, but seas will remain steep. A strong front will result in increasing southwest winds this evening with moderate to strong winds and very steep seas lasting through Tuesday.

FXUS66 KMFR 021802 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1002 AM PST Sat Dec 2 2023

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION
02/18Z TAFs
Ceilings and visibility will remain low through the TAf period hovering between MVFR and IFR with a reduction in visibility, especially this evening until the end of the TAF period. It's possible Medford and Roseburg could experience brief periods of LIFR conditions this evening through the end of the TAF period. The main challenge will be to pin down the timing of categorical changes, so uncertainty does exist, but generally expecting unfavorable flying conditions through this cycle.

Rain looks to be the primary precipitation type for the terminals.
However, rain and wet snow mix is likely at Klamath Falls today, then should be just rain starting between 0-2z this evening.
-Petrucelli


DISCUSSION
Reports in the Rogue Valley show that as of 8 AM, 24-hour totals across the Rogue Valley were in the 0.25"-0.50" range while the coast had a range of 0.50"-1.00". Moderate to heavy rain is moving east this morning with the heaviest in central Jackson County heading towards Medford. Later this morning the Winter Storm Warning that includes Chemult and Crescent and the Winter Weather Advisory that includes Chiloquin will expire as little new snowfall is expected. The Winter Storm Warning for the Cascades will still be in effect through this evening as the heavy snowfall has left many roads snow covered and hard to travel. The Wind Advisory continues through early Sunday, and reports of wind gusts near 45-50 mph have been confirmed. -Hermansen

MARINE
Updated 855 AM Saturday December 1, 2023...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PST Monday. Active weather will continue during the next week with a series of fronts moving across the waters. Most common will be southerly wind waves and long period west swell.

Winds and steep seas will increase with a front today, and again with a slower frontal passage on Sunday. Gale force gusts are possible north of Cape Arago early Saturday morning. Gales will also be possible north of Cape Blanco Monday through Monday night, with seas likely to be steep to very steep. Seas may become very high at 15 to 18 ft on Monday and again as they build to a peak of around 16 to 20 ft on Tuesday night. Additional disturbances during the second half of the week will likely not be as strong.

-Guerrero/Petrucelli

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 409 AM PST Sat Dec 2 2023/

SYNOPSIS...A series of systems will continue to move into the region. One moves in this morning, leading to moderate to heavy precipitation through today and heavy snow and hazardous conditions over the Cascade Mountain as well as gusty winds over and east of the Cascades. Snow levels at 4,500 to 5,000 feet this morning will rise to 6,000 to 7,000 feet by tonight and then further to above 9,000 feet by early next week. Rain on top of fresh snow could lead to hydrologic concerns, including rapid rises of streams and creeks, but river flooding is not currently expected. Keep an eye on the forecast this weekend and upcoming week for updates.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a majority of inland showers left over from our recent system have tapered off, while offshore returns are starting to increase as showery precipitation moves in ahead of our next system. This weekend and upcoming week will be characterized by a similar pattern to the one we've seen in the previous days, with systems progressively moving into the area and intermittent, brief breaks between systems.

This morning's system will bring moderate to heavy (mainly over the mountains) precipitation to the area. Precipitation will be heaviest over the coast, particularly the Klamath Mountains in Curry County, the western Siskiyou Mountains, and the south- central OR Cascades, including the foothills in Jackson and Douglas counties. Snow levels have risen to around 4,500 feet this early morning, and are expected to continue to rise under warmer southwest flow to 5,500-6,000 feet by this evening. Enough precipitation will move in before snow levels really start to increase today, resulting in heavy snow over the Cascades and eastern Douglas County foothills through tonight above 5,500 feet.

The SPC HRRR model is indicating 70-90% chances for 1" an hour snowfall rates over the higher Cascades, including Crater Lake Natl Park. Road cams are showing snow already on roads from the previous frontal passage, so further snow will continue to stick to road surfaces without melting. That is all to say that conditions will be particularly dangerous in the Cascades today, and a winter storm warning above 5,500 feet continues to be in effect through today. An additional winter weather advisory in in effect for central Klamath County, particularly Highway 97 Chiloquin northwards, where lesser snow amount are expected but gusty winds and blowing snow will also result in reduced visibility and hazardous conditions. See the detailed hazards map for more details. Speaking of gusty winds, a wind advisory for parts of Lake County, including parts of Highway 31, also continues through tonight as a mid-level 700 mb jet moves into the region, with the peak of winds over the afternoon.

Moisture will continue to stream into the region as a warmer front/atmospheric river pushes in late tonight into Sunday, bringing more moderate to heavy precipitation. Snow levels will continue to rise Sunday into the next week, restricting snow to only the higher peaks of the Cascades/Siskiyou Mountains late tonight and tomorrow. Heavy precipitation of 2 to 3.5 inches is likely along the coast and over the coastal mountains Saturday evening through Sunday with 1 to 2.5 inches inland into the Umpqua River Valley, Southern Oregon Cascades, southwest Josephine County and western Siskiyou County.

The stream of moisture will tilt towards the northwest Monday, bringing a relative break to areas east of the Cascades, with chances for precipitation dropping below 15% in southeast Klamath and Lake counties and below 5% in eastern Siskiyou and Modoc counties in N. CA. Higher precipitation chances will exist everywhere else, with the highest chances, as per usual, for the coast (90%+ chances) and the southern Oregon Cascades (70-80% chances). These rain chances will spread into the rest of the region through Tuesday and Wednesday as additional systems parade through the area. Snow levels will rise further early Tuesday, peaking 9,000-10,000 feet. This will result in rain on our fresh snow, with potential hydrological impacts, though confidence at this time is low. The main concern will be river rises, particularly smaller rivers which could see swift rises. Since river levels are quite low at the moment, but the south fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point in particular is forecast to approach action stage (bankfull) by late Monday. We could also see water ponding, particularly in urban areas, and rock/mud slides, particularly in western Siskiyou County. Keep an eye on the forecast this weekend and next week for updates to the forecast.

The progressive pattern with yet more fronts on the horizon continues into mid to late next week, with snow levels expected to fall from Wednesday onwards to 3,000-4,000 feet by Friday.
-CSP

BEACH HAZARDS...Active weather continues through next week. A series of fronts will move through the region during this time along with multiple moderate to high swell trains. An extended period of sustained wave action is expected. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft will coincide with higher than normal ocean levels, leading to an increased risk of beach erosion. Additionally, there is a minor risk of sneaker waves as these swell trains build into the waters.
Confidence is low, however, considering wind wave interference is likely to limit, but not completely negate the sneaker threat. If venturing to area beaches during this time, use caution when visiting and remember to never turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y/Hermansen

AVIATION
02/12Z TAFs
A busy set of TAFs are expected through this cycle with low level wind shear, low ceilings, visibility restriction, and precipitation all in the forecast. Timing of categorical changes will be tough to nail down so uncertainty does exist, but generally expecting unfavorable flying conditions through this cycle. MVFR to IFR conditions may dominate this forecast, but there is a chance for LIFR conditions to arise at the Medford and Roseburg terminals.

Rain looks to be the primary precipitation type for the terminals.
However, there could be a time period later today/tonight where Klamath Falls could see a mix of rain and snow.
-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for ORZ021- 022.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening above 5500 feet for ORZ027-028.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning above 4000 feet for ORZ029.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning above 4500 feet for ORZ030.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Reedsport
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:35 AM PST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM PST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:09 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:48 PM PST     6.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:42 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:18 PM PST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:20 AM PST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM PST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:10 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:33 PM PST     6.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:42 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:03 PM PST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,