Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 2:48 AM EDT (06:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 270539 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 139 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. An approaching cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon and evening hours today. Some of the storms can become strong to severe with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. It will turn cooler and less humid Wednesday with only isolated showers around. Another system will approach Thursday into Friday with additional showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 105 AM EDT . All shower activity across the Adirondacks has dissipated. The remainder of the overnight will feature mostly clear, dry conditions with low temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out, especially across the Adirondacks where rain fell this evening, but it shouldn't be as widespread nor dense as the previous morning. Patchy fog was added to these areas with this update.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Tuesday will feature broad trough positioned over the Northeast with a more potent shortwave tracking through Quebec. A cold front will be pushing southeastward through the day and will serve as an area of focus for afternoon thunderstorm activity. Ahead of this boundary, mainly sunny skies will start the day with west to southwesterly low level flow strengthening through the day. Breezy boundary layer winds should allow temperatures to climb well into the low to mid 80s by early afternoon with parts of the mid-Hudson Valley even flirting with 90 degrees as 850hPa isotherms reach +16 to +17C. Such deep mixing is evident on forecast soundings which explains why dew points are expected to drop into the low 60s during peak heating. The NAM is especially low with its projected dew points which also helps explain why its forecast SB CAPE values mainly range 1 - 1.5 J/kg.

While instability values are not expected to be too high, fast westerly flow aloft will contribute to rather impressive deep layer shear values with good consensus among the deterministic guidance that 0-6km bulk shear values reach 35 - 45 kts during peak heating. This is more than sufficient to promote organized convection and with shear vectors oriented parallel to the sinking cold front, a linear or storm cluster storm mode is expected. This also raises concerns for training convection which may result in localized flooding if an area is repeatedly impacted by storms. See our hydro discussion for more information on the flooding potential.

High res guidance as well as the HREF are also in good agreement that the initial line of showers/storms moves into the southern Adirondacks by 16 - 18 UTC (12 - 2pm) before tracking southeastward into the Capital District by 19 - 21 UTC (3 - 5pm). Since areas near and just north of I-90 will have experienced a longer period of daytime heating before storms arrive, there is an increased chance for storms to become strong to severe storms by the time the line approaches the Greater Capital District. The HREF signals this as well in its projection of updraft helicity values. The main hazard from any severe storms looks to be damaging winds as soundings have an inverted-v signature. The line tracks into the mid- Hudson Valley, Berkshires, and NW CT by 21 - 03 UTC. Storms should weaken after peak heating but some strong storms may persist after 00 UTC.

Winds shift to the northwest in the wake of the boundary as an upper level trough axis swings through the Northeast overnight. Guidance suggests this boundary may end up stalling over NYC or NJ Tues night into Wednesday with weak high pressure building in behind it. The ECWMF hints that this boundary may stall further north, keeping some slight chances for showers in the forecast for Wednesday. The GFS, CMC and NAM push the boundary further south with partly sunny skies, cooler temperatures and lower dew points arriving for Wednesday. We maintained slight chance POPs for Wednesday but kept them below 20 percent as the fast flow aloft and incoming trough should kick the boundary to our south. Otherwise, expect pleasant conditions on Wednesday with highs rising into the mid to upper 70s and much lower humidity under northerly flow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Long term period will be dominated by cyclonic flow and troughing aloft. A cold front Thursday will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms with improving conditions expected Friday into the first half of the weekend. Sunday, another cold front will bring a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms, with cooler and drier weather following to begin next week Details below.

Long term period begins 12z Thursday with large-scale ridging in the Western U.S. and troughing over the eastern half of the county. A rather impressive upper-level disturbance embedded in W/NW flow aloft looks to approach our area during the day Thursday. At the same time,a 300 mb jet streak moves eastward from the Great Lakes, putting us in the left exit region Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile a surface low looks to track from the Great Lakes eastward near the NY/Canada border during the day Thursday. The warm front associated with this low will lift northward across the region Thursday morning, leading to advection of warmer, more humid air into the region. The attendant cold front will approach the area during the afternoon and move through our region from northwest to southeast overnight Thursday.

Therefore, expecting widespread showers and some thunderstorms during the day Thursday. Have accordingly included likely PoPs and chance thunder for most of the region in the grids. Still some uncertainty as to if we see any strong to severe storms and if so, how widespread. At this time, instability looks to potentially be a limiting factor. High temperatures Thursday only look to be in the mid 70s as cloud cover may be fairly widespread during the morning and there could be a few showers around as well. However, dew points look to rise into the mid 60s, so areas that do see any breaks of sun could destabilize enough for a stronger thunderstorm. Additionally, there are some slight differences in timing of the upper-level disturbance, with the GFS faster than the Euro. If the faster solution plays out, then more overlap between the better dynamics and instability would increase the threat for some stronger storms. Despite questionable instability, 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts and good veering of winds in the low levels suggests that some organization of storms is possible. At this time, primary threats with any stronger storms that do develop look to be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

The cold front passes through our region Thursday evening/night and should clear the region Friday morning, although there are slight timing differences in the guidance. Regardless of the timing, cooler and drier air is expected to filter into the region by Friday afternoon in the wake of the frontal passage. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will likely become breezy as well Friday afternoon. We will still have a cold pool aloft Friday as we will be under the base of the upper trough, so some pop-up showers and an isolated rumble of thunder are possible Friday afternoon, but much drier air should help limit the chance for showers. Have included some chance PoPs mainly across our northern areas closer to the core of the cold air aloft for Friday afternoon. It should be a pleasant day with high temperatures only in the 60s in the Adirondacks with mid to upper 70s for much of the rest of the region.

Friday night, pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure builds in from the west. With height rises aloft, subsidence should lead to mainly clear skies. COmbination of clear skies and decreasing winds should allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions, so have gone a few degrees below NBM guidance for nighttime lows. Higher elevations could drop into the low-mid 40s with upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Saturday will start off with a late summer/early fall feel due to the cool temperatures Friday night and lower humidity. However, temperatures will quickly rise through the morning. Saturday should be a relatively nice day as with high temperatures in the 60s in the higher elevations and 70s elsewhere. Humidity levels will also remain comfortable with dew points in the 50s. While we begin the day under the influence of high pressure Saturday, a warm front looks to approach from the southwest during the evening or overnight hours Saturday night which could bring a few showers to the region.

Sunday, an impressive (especially for July/August standards) upper- level shortwave looks to move towards our region from the northwest. There will also be a low-level cold front associated with this upper disturbance. As expected, there are differences in the timing and amplitude of these feature, but there are signals in the guidance that Sunday could potentially be another active weather day with more showers and thunderstorms. However, given the uncertainty at this lead time, have capped PoPs at high-end chance in the grids. The cold front looks to pass through our region sometime Sunday night or Monday. Lower humidity and cooler temperatures are expected behind the frontal passage to begin the week. Due to continued cyclonic flow and troughing aloft will maintain slight chance to low-end chance PoPs for Monday as well.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly clear skies in place across much of the region with VFR conditions as of 0530Z. However, with dewpoint depressions lowering and calm winds there appears to be at least a small window of opportunity for fog development at KGFL early this morning. Will mention mainly MVFR vsby there, but will also include a few hours of IFR in TEMPO. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Some light fog/BR may occasionally result in MVFR vsby at KPOU/KPSF, although a slight breeze may persist at KPSF which should inhibit potential for more significant fog. VFR conditions should prevail at KALB.

After a quiet start to the day, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase during the late afternoon to early evening hours as a cold front and upper level disturbance move across the area from west to east. Will mention PROB30 for TSRA at all TAF sites, but coverage of showers will likely be greater and timing can be refined in subsequent TAF issuances.

Winds into this morning will be light and variable, becoming west-southwest around 4-8 kt by late morning. Winds will shift to the north-northwest at 5-10 kt later today.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact Likely SHRA. TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER. Hazy and smoky skies conditions will dissipate this evening as a few isolated showers may clip parts of the southern Adirondacks. A cold front tomorrow will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon as temperatures rise slightly above normal. Any storm will be capable of damaging winds and heavy rain. Areas recently hard hit by heavy rain will be more vulnerable to flash flooding. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday, ushering in cooler and less humid conditions.

RH values will rise to 90 to 100 percent tonight before dropping to 40 to 60 percent tomorrow afternoon. RH values then recover to 90 to 100 percent Tuesday night.

South-southwesterly winds tonight will drop to or under 5kts. Then, sustained winds turn out of the west tomorrow and increase to 8 to 15kts with gusts to 20-25kts before turning light and variable overnight.

HYDROLOGY. A cold front tomorrow will usher in showers and thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of heavy downpours. One and three hour flash flood guidance ranges between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and between 2.0 and 2.5 inches, respectively. These values are not terribly low but given month-to-date rainfall totals across most of eastern NY and western New England are already double what is normally observed in the month of July, areas may be more susceptible to flooding. In fact, areas that have been hard hit by heavy rain in recent weeks will be more vulnerable to flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Rathbun NEAR TERM . Rathbun SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . Main AVIATION . JPV FIRE WEATHER . Speciale HYDROLOGY . Speciale


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair60°F58°F93%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFL

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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW7SW5SE4SE5S6SE7SE8S8CalmSE4W6W3Calm4NW6N5NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS5SW7SW5SW5SW7S5S9S11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E4CalmS7S7S8S7S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S7S3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.6-0.1-012.53.74.554.73.82.71.70.7-0.3-0.8-0.21.12.43.444.13.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 02:18 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.5-0.10.11.22.73.84.654.63.72.51.60.6-0.4-0.7-01.32.63.54.14.13.52.6

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