Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:34 AM EDT (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 050800 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 400 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Another very warm day in store for the region today, although isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible well north of Albany. Above normal temperatures will persist into mid week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area. Heat and humidity will gradually increase through the work week as well.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 400 AM EDT . Tranquil conditions in place to start to the day, with just some mid level clouds moving across the Lake George area into southern VT and limited coverage of low stratus clouds to the southeast of Albany. Some patchy fog noted in obs, but visibilities are generally around 2 miles or greater. Any fog/low stratus clouds will dissipate quickly within a few hours of sunrise. A small disturbance tracking southeast near the Ontario/Quebec border was producing a cluster of showers with embedded thunder. A weakening trend has been noted over the past few hours, so at this time it is expected to remain dry across the western Adirondacks this morning.

Additional short wave disturbances will move through the northwest flow aloft today. Coincident with peak daytime heating, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Adirondacks, Lake George area into the southern Greens. Forcing looks to be limited, which should result in sparse coverage of thunderstorms. So will only mention slight/low chance pops. Forecast mean SBCAPE from the HREF in the 500-1200 J/Kg range, with noticeably higher values well southeast of our region. Noticing forecast DCAPE values in the 600-900 J/Kg range with relatively dry low levels and inverted-V sounding profiles, so storms may produce some brief gusty winds. Convection should be limited to the northern half of the area, with areas from around the Mohawk Valley and Capital District southward expected to remain dry.

Temperatures will be very warm again, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valley locations. Surface dewpoints should be relatively comfortable though (mainly 50s). There will be a northwest breeze around 5-10 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A stronger disturbance is forecast to move across northern Maine this evening, with an additional weaker disturbance tracking through northern portions of our region. So will continue mention of isolated to widely scattered showers/storms into the evening, but should then dissipate by late evening as the environment eventually stabilize. It will be another mild night, with lows ranging from 50s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 60s in the valleys.

Northwest flow regime looks to persist on Monday. NAM/GFS now indicating a weak disturbance tracking southeast near the NY/PA border during the afternoon and evening. With at least modest instability forecast (around 1000-1500 J/Kg) across the Catskills and mid Hudson Valley eastward to the Litchfield Hills, will mention slight/low chance of thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear looks to be fairly weak ~20 kt, but given CAPE values and relatively high DCAPE, brief strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms. Areas farther north should remain dry, with no discernible forcing mechanism and rising heights aloft. It will be another warm day, maybe a degree or two "cooler" than Sunday with highs in the mid/upper 80s for valleys.

Chances for convection will gradually wane Monday evening as the disturbance tracks farther southeast into PA/NJ. Then dry conditions expected for the rest of the night with similar temperatures compared to recent nights.

On Tuesday there appears to be a somewhat greater coverage of scattered showers/storms as a pseudo-warm front moves across the region during the afternoon. Forcing still not very robust, so will generally mention 30-40 percent chance at this time. Again, deep layer wind shear looks to be weak, but building instability and increasing PWAT anomalies (+1 to +2 STDEV) could result in downpours and brief gusty winds with any thunderstorms. Assuming only scattered coverage of convection, temperatures should be able to warm well into the 80s for much of eastern NY. It should be slightly cooler in western New England as the warm front may not arrive until later in the day. Scattered showers/storms could linger into the evening, but will likely decrease in coverage/intensity as stabilization occurs. Tuesday night will be warm and more humid than recent nights, with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. There is a consensus from guidance/ensembles for a quick moving upper disturbance to track through our region Wednesday. Flat upper ridging will build east a little more behind the upper disturbance, with slight warming at the boundary layer. There is not much low level jet energy but with the heat and instability along with some convergent flow at the boundary layer, scattered thunderstorms can be expected across our region Wednesday, especially afternoon and evening. Outside of the storms, lots of sun and heat, with highs in the 80s to around 90.

Thursday looks mainly dry with just isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening just due to the heat and humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices Thursday may require heat headlines.

Southern stream upper energy organizes in the SE U.S. and mid Atlantic states Thursday, and drifts north and east Friday and Saturday. Northern stream upper energy just north of the U.S./Canadian border tracks toward our region as well. The northern stream upper energy may draw the southern stream energy north and east into or just east of our region.

Timing of better coverage of thunderstorms will depend if the storms are associated more with the northern stream upper energy and cold front or the southern stream energy. Either way, indicating scattered thunderstorms both afternoons. There should be considerable sun outside of storms. So, highs Friday in the 80s to around 90 and on Saturday perhaps a degree or two cooler.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Other than some intervals of haze and fog with some MVFR visibilities at KPOU through about 10Z, VFR conditions expected through this evening. Some intervals of fog are possible at KPSF and KGFL with MVFR visibilities around daybreak but with slow and gradual drying of the low level atmosphere, chances of fog are low but will amend if fog occurs.

Wind will light and variable through about mid morning becoming west northwest tomorrow sustained generally 5 to 8 Kt.

Outlook .

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact Isolated SHRA. TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact Isolated SHRA. TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Another very warm day in store for the region today, although isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible well north of Albany. Above normal temperatures will persist into mid week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area. Heat and humidity will gradually increase through the work week as well.

Relative humidity values will drop to around 35 to 45 percent this afternoon, recovering to maximum values of between 80 and 100 percent tonight. RH values will drop to around 35 to 45 percent again Tuesday afternoon.

Winds today will be west-northwest around 5 to 10 mph, becoming northwest less than 5 mph tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be northerly around 5 mph.

HYDROLOGY. Most of the forecast area remains in the abnormally dry to moderate drought categories on the latest US Drought Monitor, however some areas have seen beneficial rain in the last week. No precipitation of hydrological significance is expected through at least Tuesday, although widely scattered thunderstorms could bring rainfall to some spots.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Speciale NEAR TERM . JPV SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . NAS AVIATION . NAS FIRE WEATHER . JPV HYDROLOGY . Thompson/JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45188 43 mi34 min E 1.9 64°F 70°F1012.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi41 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F57°F87%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFL

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW4Calm53CalmN7CalmCalmCalmS3S4SW4CalmN5NW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE7NE8CalmCalmCalmNW3N5NE6NE8S6SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3S4S5S4S5S4S64SE74S6S4W4CalmS6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:37 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.31.83.24.45.35.6542.91.80.5-0.6-0.70.21.52.63.443.83.12.31.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.523.44.65.45.54.93.82.71.60.3-0.7-0.60.41.72.73.543.732.21.50.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.