Lyndonville, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lyndonville, NY

June 19, 2024 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 6:05 PM   Moonset 2:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 456 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then just a chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - West winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of evening showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Monday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyndonville, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 200129 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 929 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather will linger through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures likely to reach 100F at many locations during the afternoon hours. There will also be showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
While temperatures will remain well above normal, a modest respite from the heat will come in time for the weekend, as a cold front will approach the region on Friday,

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Hot and humid weather will continue, with a Heat Advisory still in effect for the entire area through Thursday. An upper level high across the Mid-Atlantic will move very slowly southward Thursday and Thursday night.

In regards to possible convection...our airmass is nearly identical to that from late yesterday (Tues) when strong to severe thunderstorm activity blossomed over the western Southern Tier...
Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region. It goes without saying that this sub tropical airmass is quite unstable...but shear is limited at best. Tds in the low to mid 70s and PWAT values avg 1.8" continue to favor convection with torrential downpours...but unlike Tuesday when a light flow and short mbE vectors elevated the risk for slow moving storms...the flow is just a skosh stronger., This can be attributed to the mid level ridge becoming oriented southwest to northeast with its axis sagging to the southeast of our forecast area.

Now that you know the environment...we need to have a trigger to touch off the convection. The lake breeze boundary that drifted east from the lake late this afternoon has since stalled and has generated nothing but some enhanced Cu. There is some kind of boundary though that stretches from the heart of the Finger Lakes southwestward across Allegany county to northwestern Pennsylvania though. This boundary is slowly pushing west-northwest. Convection along this boundary has tried to get going the past couple hours...
but the cellular activity has been short lived with nothing to show for it but localized quarter inch rainfall and some lightning. Some of the CAMs are still suggesting that storms will become more widespread along this boundary as we push through the late evening hours.

Otherwise...storms that do develop should weaken/taper off LATE this evening. However, there will remain a small risk for showers or thunderstorms if any upstream convective waves move through since it will still be instability overnight. Lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with patchy fog in the Southern Tier river valleys.

Heat index values on Thursday may be slightly lower since 850mb temps will drop to +18C, but values will still be within advisory criteria, reaching 100 again at some locations. High temperatures will be 2-3 degrees lower than today at most locations.

The southward progression of the upper level ridge should allow for earlier and more widespread convective initiation on Thursday. This is reflected in model guidance also, with storms developing along and inland of lake breeze boundaries early afternoon. There will again be a risk for slow moving storms and flash flooding. Winds aloft and shear will be slightly more, so there will again be a risk for severe weather with damaging winds and hail possible. SPC has most of the area in a marginal risk for severe weather, with greater slight risk near Central NY. Showers and storms will gradually diminish late Thursday night. A partial clearing may allow for areas of fog to develop Thursday night, especially in the Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Friday, the frontal boundary stalls over the forecast area and will continue to provide the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms with the best chance for showers toward the NY/PA line. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low 80s to near 90, on the northern side of the frontal boundary. If the front stalls farther north, then temperatures will be a bit warmer.

Warmer and more humid conditions return for the weekend as warm front moves north of the forecast area.

Friday night, the front stalled over the area will start to slowly push north as a warm front late in the night and into the early morning on Saturday. There should be a break in the shower/storm activity, especially with the lack of diurnal processes.
Showers/storms potential will increase around/after daybreak Saturday morning as the front starts moving north and a ribbon of vorticity and area of increased moisture pushes toward and across the region. As of now, the best chance for showers early Saturday morning looks like it should be over the North Country. Certainly can't rule out a shower or storm for the rest of the area as the warmth and humidity build back into the region.

Showers will expand in coverage across the entire area through the day on Saturday as daytime heating increases, and as the sfc low (and its moisture) well to the north approaches the region. With the frontal boundary generally from west to east just to the north of Lake Ontario and into the North Country, the best chances for showers and storms will be located along the front. Afternoon high temperatures will warm to the low 80s to low 90s across the area, with the cooler temperatures expected across the North Country with the warm front over/near the area.

The warm sector of the surface low to the north will be firmly in place for Saturday night continuing the potential for showers/storms across the entire area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
With the warm sector of the surface low to the north still in place for Sunday, showers/storms will continue across the entire area.
Showers will increase from northwest to southeast across the area into the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
Warm and humid conditions will continue through Sunday as the warm sector remains in place ahead of the cold front.

The cold front associated with the surface low passing to the north will cross the area on Sunday evening and into the night, causing more organized showers/storms to move through the area. A potent shortwave trough tracking across the area behind the passing front will continue the shower potential for Monday.

Increased ridging and an incoming surface high will result in drier conditions for Monday night through most of the rest of the period, though some guidance does bring some showers back into the region for mid-week.

Temperatures will be well above normal for Sunday with highs in the low 80s to near 90. Temperatures cool behind the passing cold front to the mid 70s to low 80s for Monday before warming again for Tuesday & Wednesday back to the low to upper 80s.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mainly VFR flight conditions through this evening. Showers and storms before 03z (11 PM) will produce localized MVFR or lower conditions at times. Storms will mainly develop along and inland of lake breeze circulations, with a lower risk at KBUF/KIAG/KART than at KROC and KART.

Mainly VFR late tonight, but there is a risk of fog in the Southern Tier river valleys.

On Thursday, mainly VFR again outside of showers and thunderstorms. These will develop early afternoon and last through the evening hours. Areal coverage a bit more than today, with a risk of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR except areas of IFR or lower in areas of fog. Also a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
A generally quiet period is expected for the lower Great Lakes through the rest of the week and into the weekend as a large upper-level ridge remains across the eastern CONUS, resulting in a lighter surface flow. Only concern will be in the afternoon and early evening hours this week as daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce higher wind gusts and waves.

CLIMATE
The heat will continue through Thursday. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001>008-010>014- 019>021-085.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 30 mi73 minSSW 5.1G8 83°F 30.24
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi55 min 78°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi73 minSW 2.9G2.9 81°F 30.27
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi43 minS 7.8G9.7 72°F 65°F30.2471°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 44 mi73 minNNW 18G29 73°F 58°F1 ft30.24
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 49 mi73 minSSE 5.1G8.9 83°F 30.24


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KROC41 sm18 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%30.27
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Wind History graph: ROC
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Buffalo, NY,




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