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LOZ062 Expires:202309182345;;601801 Fzus71 Kbuf 182241 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 641 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz030-042-062-182345- 641 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters...
the areas affected include... Lake ontario from the mouth of the niagara river to hamlin beach... The lower niagara river...
at 639 pm edt, doppler radar indicated several showers and possible Thunderstorms over the western third of lake ontario, capable of producing waterspouts. This activity was moving southeast at 10 knots.
locations impacted include... Thirty mile point, youngstown, niagara river, olcott, wilson, Sunset beach, and fort niagara.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
showers and Thunderstorms in this environment can produce waterspouts with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat...lon 4363 7867 4363 7797 4333 7798 4334 7811 4334 7853 4325 7894 4324 7906 4345 7920

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 020311 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1011 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Other than widespread showers over and east of Lake Ontario, steadier showers/rain is done for the rest of the forecast area south of Lake Ontario for tonight. Another weak wave of low pressure will bring a few more showers Saturday, mainly in the morning. Yet another area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Sunday through Monday with more widespread rain, which may end as some wet snow later Monday or Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Currently showers are mainly east of and across the south shore of Lake Ontario. Temperatures are in the mid 30s to low 40s. Patchy fog has developed for areas south of I90, with some better coverage over the higher terrain and toward the NY/PA border.

A southwest-northeast oriented frontal zone will remain draped across the eastern Great Lakes through much of the weekend, acting as a conduit for a series of surface and mid level waves, keeping unsettled but relatively mild weather in place.

After earlier widespread rain and some lingering showers still, there will be a relative lull in rainfall overnight, although there will still be a few scattered showers and areas of drizzle around. Temperatures will stay mild, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s in most locations.

Another, weaker mid level shortwave and weak surface low will ripple northeast along the frontal zone late tonight through the first half of Saturday. Another period of enhanced low level convergence, DPVA, and moisture transport associated with this wave will bring an uptick in coverage of rain late tonight and Saturday morning. The best low/mid level forcing, and thus the more widespread showers, will be found along and north of the US/Canadian border, where the best coverage of rain will be found Saturday morning. This weak wave will exit during the afternoon, with rain chances diminishing from southwest to northeast in the afternoon as deep moisture exits and a mid level ridge builds overhead. That said, remnant low level moisture may still support a few scattered light showers or patchy drizzle in the afternoon. Temperatures will stay mild, with highs in the 40s in most locations, with a few low 50s readings possible near the PA state line and in the Finger Lakes.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An anticyclonically curved jet will be over the Northeast Saturday night. Lingering low level moisture may result in a few rain showers but mostly dry conditions are expected across the region. Warm air advection will strengthen across western NY the second half of the night as low pressure moves along the central Appalachians. Rain showers will approach the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes by Sunday morning. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s across western NY to the low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario.

Phasing of two systems will take place near the region Sunday as a shortwave trough moves from the Mid-West to the Northeast.
Deterministic models can struggle with phasing and transferring energy to the east coast in Miller-B scenarios. This is the case where most guidance phases the low further west, over western NY.
The EC has low pressure phasing closer to the east coast and this solution tends to be more favored. This complex system will bring widespread rain showers across the region Sunday. The shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt while a 170+kt 250mb jet is south of the forecast area. Increasing ascent from the left exit region of the jet ahead of the trough will provide additional support for steady, possibly moderate rain showers east of the Genesee Valley. An easterly jet from the Atlantic may also increase rain rates in this area. The southern portion of the forecast area will tap into the warm sector Sunday. High temperatures could range from the upper 40s to the low 40s across the North Country.

Rain may mix with snow on the Tug Hill while ending southwest to northeast Sunday night as low pressure moves east of the forecast area Sunday night. A cool, westerly flow will move into the region behind the departing low and showers will linger into Monday.
Temperatures at 850mb fall to around -4C by late Sunday night. The Canadian is bullish with an organized lake band developing east of Lake Erie Sunday night however temperatures aloft are still a few degrees too warm. It's not until Monday that colder air moves across the Lakes which may produce a lake response, however the cap will be lowering. Westerly flow will maintain a chance of rain and snow showers east of the Lakes Monday night. Any accumulation will be confined to the Tug Hill and hill tops.
Cooler Monday and Monday night with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Moving into Tuesday the Eastern Great Lakes will be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure, one moving southeast from the Upper Midwest, and another slowly pivoting southward across the Canadian Maritimes. Weak shortwave ridging and a wedge of mid-level dry air will be present across the forecast area between these two features, which should significantly inhibit the lake response despite 850H temps still hovering around -7C/-8C. Mostly dry weather is therefore expected for Tuesday, though long range guidance is still struggling to resolve the exact track of the shortwave and surface reflection to our west moving into Tuesday evening. Best chances for a mix of rain and snow showers overnight into Wednesday morning are still expected to be across the western Southern Tier in closer proximity to the passing low. Have opted for lkly PoPs here as the latest 12z GFS and CMCNH are in somewhat better alignment with the closer track depicted by the ECMWF, though have left PoPs as Chc for the rest of far WNY. Any accumulations are expected to be minor as even the more aggressive long range ensembles still show little more than the potential for nuisance snowfall amounts across the higher terrain, with minimal low-level fetch over the lakes for added instability.

The low over the Canadian Maritimes will shift eastward Wednesday as the shortwave to the southwest over the Ohio Valley transfers energy to then quickly moves east and away from the Mid-Atlantic coast.
This shift in the longwave pattern will allow another transient ridge to move back across the eastern Great Lakes, ensuring mostly dry weather for Wednesday and much of Wednesday night. Still can't rule out a few stray LE showers as 850H temps will still be rather cold (around -10C). Next chances for more widespread rain and snow showers will arrive Thursday and last through Friday as another shortwave moves southeast towards the region from the Upper Great Lakes.

Otherwise...With cold, cyclonic flow over the region, temperatures through midweek are expected to average near or slightly below average. As the high pressure ridge moves east of the Great Lakes and builds along the East Coast Thursday, a developing southerly flow will initiate a warming trend through the end of the week.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers are mostly confined to the Lake Ontario area, including east of the lake. Further south of the lake a few showers and drizzle are scattered about. Scattered showers and/or drizzle will also fill in behind the steadier rain east of Lake Ontario. Areas of fog have developed across areas of the Western Southern Tier with more patchy fog northward toward I90. At least brief to steady VSBYs to a quarter mile have been in place for JHW. Other TAF sites have at least some reductions to VSBYs, and this should continue through most of the night. CIGs down to LIFR at JHW will continue through the night. Elsewhere, MVFR CIGs should lower to IFR for the rest of the TAF sites through much of the night.

Another wave of low pressure will move over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning, with showers increasing in coverage especially near the Canadian border. These showers will then taper off from west to east in the afternoon. Widespread MVFR to IFR CIGS will continue most, if not all of tonight and Saturday. IFR will be most favored over Western NY and the North Country, with MVFR favored from the Genesee Valley through Central NY.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain. Some wet snow may mix in by Monday, especially across higher terrain.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

MARINE
A frontal zone will remain draped near the lower Great Lakes through the weekend. The front will remain just south of Lake Ontario, with northeast winds prevailing on the cold side of the frontal boundary.
South to southwest winds will prevail tonight through much of Saturday on Lake Ontario as the front stays just north of the lake.
Winds will then become northeast Saturday night on Lake Erie.

Winds and waves will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend. The one exception may be the west half of Lake Ontario on Sunday, when easterly winds will increase to near Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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