Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lyndonville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:14PM Saturday September 21, 2019 8:41 PM EDT (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:37PMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 737 Pm Edt Sat Sep 21 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:201909220300;;149106 FZUS61 KBUF 212337 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 737 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.3 inch high will remain nearly stationary over the Carolinas through the rest of the weekend. A 29.3 inch low will move from the Northern Plains to James Bay during the latter half of the weekend and push a cold front east across the lake late Sunday night into Monday. A 30.0 inch high will then build across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. LOZ062-220300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyndonville, NY
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location: 43.54, -78.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212352
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
752 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019

Synopsis
The weather will be simply spectacular across the region this last
weekend of summer... As high pressure off the coast of the carolinas
will provide us with sunshine and temperatures more typical of early
august. Our next opportunity for some widespread showers will be
late Sunday night and Monday when a cold front will usher notably
cooler weather into the region... Perfectly in time with the arrival
of fall.

Near term through Sunday
Beautiful late summer weather will hang on across western and north
central new york through at least Sunday morning... As the crest of a
broad h5 ridge will cross our region. As a result... We can expect
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and dry weather to prevail
through that time.

The trend of warmer and warmer nights will continue tonight... As a
deepening southerly flow will help to hold temperatures some 15
degrees above normal for this last full night of astronomical
summer. Mins will range from the upper 50s in lewis co to the mid
and upper 60s across parts of the iag frontier and along lake erie.

As has been the case the past several nights... There should be some
valley fog across the southern tier late.

Sunday will certainly feel every bit like the last day of summer. A
broad southwest flow on the backside of the aforementioned ridge
will not only keep h85 temps in the mid teens c... But it will also
circulate more humid air into the region. This will make for a warm
and moderately humid day with highs in the low to mid 80s... And
while most areas will remain rain free... Some showers now look
possible from the finger lakes region eastward. A convectively
enhanced shortwave (see showers and storms over mid mississippi
valley) will advance to the northeast tonight around the periphery
of the mid level ridge then will track across our forecast area
Sunday morning. As diurnally driven instability increases through
the midday hours... Showers will develop near and east of the finger
lakes where several guidance packages are suggesting that pooling
low level moisture could drive dew points to near 70. There will
be enough instability without a limiting cap to allow for
thunderstorms. Will add both to the package for sites east of
rochester and the genesee valley. Elsewhere... It will remain
rainfree.

Finally... While it will be unusually warm on Sunday... It should be
noted that high temperatures will still remain safely below
established record highs for september 22... Which are 89 at buffalo
(1965)... 93 at rochester (1895)... And 91 at watertown (1965).

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Deep layer moisture seems to take its sweet time getting here on
Sunday night as high pressure slowly loses hold of the forecast
area. As a cold front painfully slowly eeks eastward toward western
new york, it would seem most of the evening remains clear over the
majority of the area. This quickly comes to an end overnight as rh
values throughout the column rapidly ramp up from west to east as
the frontal boundary. Modest instability along the front doesn't
really seem substantial enough to generate thunder for the most
part, however steeper low level lapse rates should allow for 25-30
kts of momentum off the deck to mix down. This will provide a rather
gusty frontal passage with a decent batch of showers likely to
develop along the front as it does so.

The front pushes through the area Monday and exits the east Monday
night with cyclonic flow and much colder air off the deck replacing
it. Temperatures at 850 hpa drop toward +4 to +6c, which should be
enough to get some lake response. Thus, lake effect rain shower
chances were carried into Tuesday before high pressure again returns
for mid-week.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Surface high pressure will drift off the eastern seaboard Wednesday,
with lingering dry air and subsidence remaining across the eastern
great lakes. This will bring a dry day, with burgeoning warm
advection in the wake of the departing high supporting highs in the
mid 70s at lower elevations across western ny, lower 70s elsewhere.

A cold front will cross the eastern great lakes very late Wednesday
night and early Thursday, supporting a chance of a few showers and
increased cloud cover. The showers will end from west to east later
Thursday following the cold frontal passage. High pressure will then
build into the ohio valley and eastern great lakes Thursday night
and Friday, bringing a dry end to the week.

Temperatures will briefly cool off Thursday and Thursday night
behind the cold front, but will then quickly warm to above normal
Friday and Saturday as a strong ridge builds back into the eastern
united states.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure along the coast of the carolinas will help to keep a
broad southwest flow in place over the lower great lakes tonight...

with light winds andVFR conditions prevailing. The only potential
fly in the ointment will be some valley fog and associated
restrictions late tonight across the southern tier.

FairVFR weather will then remain in place across the bulk of the
region on Sunday... Although there could be a shower or two after 16z
for sites east of rochester and dansville.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

Tuesday... MVFRVFR with scattered showers.

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure will continue to provide our region with relatively
light winds and minimal wave action through tonight. On Sunday winds
will freshen some out of the southwest... Though conditions should
remain below advisory levels. Better chances for advisory-worthy
winds and waves will then arrive Sunday night and Monday as a slow
moving cold front pushes across the lower great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Fries
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 30 mi41 min S 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 1020 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi59 min 74°F 1019 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi41 min S 8 G 9.9 76°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi41 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 70°F 68°F1019.2 hPa65°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 44 mi101 min E 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 68°F1 ft1018.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY41 mi47 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F59°F56%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3SW3SW5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW9SW8S6W5W4S5SW5SW6SW6SW5S4S5
1 day agoSE4S3CalmW3SW3SW4SW5SW7SW6SW8SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5W334W7CalmSW3SW5W3NE4
2 days agoCalmSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW4SW4SW4CalmSW6SW6SW7SW9SW8SW9W5SW5SW8SW4SE5E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.