Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lyndonville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:47PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 8:49 AM EST (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:52AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 651 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots. Rain and snow early, then rain late this morning. Scattered rain showers early this afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of lake effect snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:202002181630;;722225 FZUS61 KBUF 181151 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.5 inch low will move from Lake Huron this morning to southern Quebec by this evening. A large 30.8 inch area of high pressure will weaken as the center of the high advances from the northern Plains Wednesday slowly into the Ohio Valley by Friday. LOZ062-181630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyndonville, NY
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location: 43.54, -78.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 181153 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 653 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will pass just north of the region today. Wet snow will quickly change to rain this morning across Western NY. The wet snow will last longer east of Lake Ontario with several inches of accumulation this morning before changing to rain in the afternoon. It will be quite windy and briefly warmer today. Colder air will then move back into the region Wednesday through Thursday with some lake effect snow developing, especially southeast of Lake Ontario.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Radar imagery showing widespread precipitation across the entire region early this morning. Precipitation is still all snow for most of the area, with rain across far Western NY in most of Chautauqua, Erie, and Niagara counties. The brief period of freezing rain from earlier this morning from Niagara Falls to Rochester has ended, with evaporative cooling temporarily erasing the warm layer aloft. Surface temperatures are also rising above freezing now in this area, ending the risk of freezing rain.

A strong trough will move into western Quebec today, with the associated surface low moving from Lake Huron this morning to southern Quebec by early this evening. Large scale forcing from DPVA ahead of the trough and right entrance region dynamics of a 130+ knot upper level jet will combine with strong low level isentropic upglide and moisture transport supported by a 60+ knot low level jet to produce a period of deep layer ascent this morning. Orographics will be superimposed on the synoptic scale pattern, with enhanced QPF in upslope areas and muted QPF in downslope areas. This will result in around 0.5" of liquid in upslope areas, and less than 0.25" of liquid in downslope areas.

The leading edge of the precipitation shield will fall as snow. The period of snow will be very brief across Western NY, in fact areas near Lake Erie have already changed to rain. Some of the higher terrain of Cattaraugus and Allegany counties and the Bristol Hills may see 2-3 inches of snow accumulation early this morning before the changeover. Accumulations will be an inch or less at lower elevations in far Western NY, and 1-2 inches for Rochester and points southeast of Lake Ontario.

East of Lake Ontario the precipitation will stay snow longer, especially across the Tug Hill and Lewis County. Precipitation will change to rain by late morning near Lake Ontario, and by early to mid afternoon farther east. Before then, upslope enhancement across southern Lewis County will produce moderate accumulations. Expect 4- 7 inches from the southern Tug Hill to near McKeever where SSW upslope flow maximizes. There will be far less snow near Lake Ontario and across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties without the benefit of upslope flow. Here, only 1-3 inches of accumulation is expected.

The rain will taper off to scattered showers by mid to late morning across Western NY, and by mid afternoon east of Lake Ontario. A weak baroclinic wave developing along the advancing cold front may bring another brief period of more organized showers across portions of the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Meanwhile areas from Buffalo to Rochester will become mainly dry this afternoon. Any lingering showers east of Lake Ontario and across the interior Southern Tier will then end this evening.

A strong 60+ knot low level jet will cross Western NY this morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region from late morning through mid afternoon. Nearly isothermal profiles through the boundary layer and the warm advection pattern will not support efficient mixing of the stronger winds down to the surface in most areas. There also does not appear to be enough static stability to support a strong downslope wind response. With this in mind, wind gusts will be limited to 30-40 mph across Western NY this morning. The inversion is a little stronger east of Lake Ontario, and the low level jet also becomes stronger. This may support a few sporadic gusts to 50 mph in downslope areas near the north slopes of the Tug Hill, Black River Valley, and near Fort Drum. Finally, there may be a brief period of stronger winds from the Lake Erie shore northeast across the Niagara Frontier this afternoon just behind the cold front. There is a very brief 1-2 hour period of 40-45 knots just off the deck as lapse rates steepen behind the cold front. This may support a very short window of 40-45 mph gusts locally near Buffalo.

Temperatures will surge into the low to mid 40s in most areas by midday today, before dropping back into the 30s later this afternoon behind the cold front.

A secondary cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The airmass will grow cold enough to support a lake response by late tonight, with snow showers increasing southeast of the lakes. Any accumulation through daybreak Wednesday will be minor.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A secondary frontal boundary will traverse the eastern Great Lakes late Tuesday night into Wednesday. WNW'erly flow behind this feature will usher in a much colder air mass with H850T dropping to -16C to - 18C across the region. This will likely encourage a very brief but limited lake response east and then southeast off the lakes by early Wednesday morning. Then the air mass behind the front briefly dries out a bit with lake snows held in check over the course of the day. With limited moisture accumulations will more than likely be very light with this initial round of lake snows on Wednesday. With that said, accumulations of 1-2 inches at best will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. Elsewhere, look for mainly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers. In terms of temperatures, highs will be found mainly in the 20s areawide.

Wednesday night, things get a bit more interesting as a very subtle shortwave approaches the Lower Lakes. This feature appears to be what will re-invigorates lake snows, especially off Lake Ontario where a shot of added moisture and lift will come from the shortwave. It also appears that there will likely be some kind of upstream help from Lake Huron (Georgian Bay) which won't be there for Lake Erie. One thing is for sure, over lake instability won't be an issue with H850T hovering near -16C/-18C across the area and lake water temperatures currently +1C/+2C. With deep moisture extending well through and above the DGZ expect decent snowfall rates and ratios of +20:1. However, there is only a narrow window of opportunity for accumulating lake snows which will likely limit accumulations to a point. With that said, confidence has increased enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Wayne, N. Cayuga, and Oswego where a band of steady snow is likely to reside just long enough to reach criteria under a NW'erly flow regime. Early estimates of 6-9 inches will be possible off Lake Ontario within the Watch area.

Off Lake Erie, with an unfavorable NW'erly flow and less moisture to work with accumulations will be severely limited. At this point, the best chance for any accumulations will likely focus across the Chautauqua ridge with an inch or two at best.

Thursday, lake effect snows will be ongoing off Lake Ontario but will begin to gradually diminish as drier air works in and equilibrium levels start to fall over the course of the day. Elsewhere, expect mainly cloudy skies with a few passing snow showers outside of lake effect snows. It will also be quite chilly as highs will peak in the teens to low 20s.

Thursday night, lake effect snows will continue to diminish if not end as drier air filters in and warming mid-levels influence lake snows. Any additional accumulations will likely be minor at this point. Otherwise, it will again be cold with temperatures by daybreak Friday found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario and the western Southern Tier. Elsewhere, teens will be quite common along the lake Plains.

Friday, flow around an expansive surface high over the deep south will provide dry weather and warming temperatures across the region. After a chilly start, look for high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across the Lower Lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Broad high pressure to our south looks to maintain dry and quite weather Friday night through Sunday. It will also encourage a continual warming trend for a good portion of this period.

The next chance for any precipitation doesn't come into the picture until Sunday or even as late as Monday as a cold front sweeps east through the region. As usual timing issues arise among the various model guidance packages have added a chance of rain and snow during the Sunday into Monday time frame. Otherwise, it appears again that winter has come and gone again with above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Widespread snow will continue early this morning for the bulk of the area, with rain across far Western NY. Widespread IFR VSBY will continue in areas where snow is falling this morning. Once precipitation changes to rain, VSBY will improve to MVFR and VFR. Southeast downslope flow will help to keep CIGS in the MVFR or even VFR range across the lower elevations, with IFR developing across higher terrain through the morning hours.

East of Lake Ontario, snow will develop by early morning and snow will last for a little longer period of time with widespread IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS through the morning. Precipitation will then change to rain in the afternoon, especially across the lower elevations with VSBY improving to MVFR and VFR.

The rain will then end from west to east during the afternoon, with MVFR CIGS continuing. A strong low level jet will initially produce strong low level wind shear through the early morning. Winds will then partially mix to the surface, with gusty winds through the day Tuesday. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots will be common, with a few sporadic gusts to 40 knots possible.

Outlook . Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR, except for localized IFR conditions in lake snows southeast of the lakes. Friday and Saturday . VFR conditions.

MARINE. Low pressure will pass by just north of the eastern Great Lakes today. A strong low level jet ahead of the system will support fairly strong southerly winds through this morning, becoming southwest this afternoon and then westerly by Wednesday. This will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario lasting through Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-008. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for NYZ004>006. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR/EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 30 mi50 min S 8.9 G 17 38°F 1012.2 hPa (-3.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi50 min 33°F 1014 hPa (-3.8)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi50 min SSE 11 G 17 33°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY41 mi2.9 hrsSSE 100.50 miSnow Fog32°F30°F92%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE10NE10N7NE6NE5NE7NE9NE8NE9E9E11E9E7E8--SE7E9SE8SE8SE8SE9SE11SE10
1 day agoW11W9W13W8SW7W9W13
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W11W9W10W6W3SW3CalmCalmNE7N5N7
2 days ago--SW5SW7S15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.