Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:02PM Saturday May 30, 2020 7:06 AM EDT (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:202005302015;;973134 Fzus63 Kdtx 300659 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 259 Am Edt Sat May 30 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, averaging 30.30 inches, will build over the region Sunday and Monday before the next low begins to move into the region late Monday into Tuesday. Lhz462>464-302015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 259 am edt Sat may 30 2020
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Showers likely late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then veering to the northwest in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north until early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 300659 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 259 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

DISCUSSION.

Variable coverage of mid-level stratus extending from northern Wisconsin into the Saginaw Valley a consequence of post-frontal moisture trapped in the approaching H85-H7 thermal trough. The seasonably cool and dry airmass already in place at the surface will respond favorably to diurnal heating allowing stratus to transition to a greater coverage of broken stratocu along with wind gusts increasing to around 20 kts this afternoon. 120kt 250mb jet streak translating toward the Great Lakes today will amplify the southern periphery of the PV anomaly currently pivoting toward Lake Superior and forcing another cold front through the CWA during peak heating. Despite high static stability above 700mb, there will be potential for mixing depths to overachieve on a localized basis, particularly as rather active fgen processes along the upper jet axis support steady top-down deepening of the incoming dry slot. Juxtaposition of the lead edge of this dry slot with low-level cold front during peak heating may allow stratocu to bubble into a some sporadic light showers in the 21-00z time frame - worth introducing a 15 pop. Went a couple degrees below consensus for highs along/north of the glacial ridge given noted NWP undersimulation of existing mid-level moisture this morning.

Cold advection commences in the wake of the front allowing H85 temps to around -1C by early Sunday morning. Deep dry air, confluent northwest flow aloft, and aggressively building 1028mb high pressure anchored near Chicago will ensure cloud-free skies, light wind, and high temperatures in the mid 60s. Monday basically a modified persistence forecast from Sunday - airmass modification allows highs to rebound to around 70 degrees.

NWP consensus remains in tact Monday night into the midweek period. Northern periphery of the high amplitude ridge established over the central CONUS deamplifies in response to a series of synoptic scale height falls over central and southern Canada. Resultant transition to broad W/WNW flow extending from the High Plains into the Great Lakes will advect warmer and more unstable air into the region, the lead edge of which will be marked by a transient period of showers/chc thunder Monday night. By Tues-Wed, T/Tds already back into the 80s/60s. 00z ECMWF maintains strong continuity in its depictions of a favorable thermodynamic environment establishing over Lower Michigan during the first half of Tuesday becoming moreso late Tuesday night as a healthy EML is advected east. Signal for potential severe wx is clear but the window of opportunity appears limited as a northern wave digging into eastern Ontario shunts the instability gradient south as early as Wednesday morning.

MARINE.

Moderate northwest flow continues through the day today. A small craft advisory may be needed late this evening for Lake Huron as higher waves clip the Thumb. Strong high pressure builds over the region early Sunday and remains overhead through the day Monday bringing quiet marine conditions for the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again late Monday into Tuesday as the next low pressure system begins to move into the central Great Lakes.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1157 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

AVIATION .

Northwest winds will be prominent now that main cold front has passed this evening. Some degree of lower VFR cigs will filter into the area overnight and perhaps reform with diurnal mixing Saturday afternoon after a period of sct clouds in the morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for ceilings below 5000 feet overnight and low Saturday afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . KDK AVIATION . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi67 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 1 ft1014.8 hPa (+0.9)
PSCM4 22 mi67 min W 7 G 12 56°F 1033.2 hPa (+0.7)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi49 min NW 8.9 G 14 54°F 46°F1014.6 hPa50°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi55 min WNW 5.1 G 8 55°F 1015.2 hPa51°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi55 min 56°F 1015.2 hPa
KP58 47 mi76 min WNW 8.9 G 16 55°F 1014.6 hPa48°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI47 mi12 minWNW 410.00 miFair54°F50°F88%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW4SW6S8SW6NW10
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N4NW6W5NW8NW7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3
1 day agoS7S10S9SW7SW3S9S9S11
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2 days agoCalmS3S4S5S6S5S7SE9SE11
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S10S6CalmSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.