Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday March 29, 2020 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:02AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:202003300815;;266498 Fzus63 Kdtx 291923 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 323 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.40 inches, near the straits this evening will move into ontario, north of georgian bay tonight, weakening to 29.60 inches. The low will depart across the eastern lakes on Monday as it continues to weaken. High pressure will expand across the region from the north Tuesday into Wednesday. Lhz462>464-300815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 323 pm edt Sun mar 29 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the evening. Periods of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Numerous showers in the morning...then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 292330 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 730 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

AVIATION.

Expansive area of low level moisture will remain firmly entrenched through this taf period, resulting in widespread stratus. Brief window for VFR level restrictions early this evening, before ceiling height gradually lowers with time through the night. Predominant MVFR into Monday, with perhaps a brief drop into IFR possible during the morning period. A firm southwest wind this evening will gradually ease through the night. Gusts in excess of 30 knots remain possible prior to midnight, before decreasing in magnitude overnight. Winds gradually veering to west and then northwest on Monday, gusting at times 20 to 25 knots.

For DTW . Southwest winds gusting in excess of 30 knots at times through late evening, then gradually diminishing overnight. Winds veering to westerly on Monday, gusting 20 to 25 knots at times. This will introduce a low potential for gusts to near crosswind thresholds from 290 degrees during the afternoon. Low stratus holds through the period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High in ceiling at or below 5000 ft through Monday.

* Low confidence in wind gusts exceeding crosswind threshold from 290 degrees Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

The upper low now churning just south of Green Bay, Wi will move across nrn Lower Mi and nrn Lake Huron this afternoon and evening. The region of low level moisture wrapping around this system and ascent tied to mid level short wave impulses rotating along the base of the upper low will sustain scattered to numerous rain showers well into tonight. A peak of sun earlier today pushed temps into the low 60s over much of the area. This steepened the low level lapse rates enough to support a few intervals of strong winds along the lead edge of surface cold push. Ongoing low level cold air advection is dropping temps into the 40s. The low level moistening and rain showers is also reducing the degree of boundary layer mixing upstream. This will only persist through the evening and will support a decreasing trend in the southwest wind speeds and gusts into the early evening hours.

The upper low will depart to the east of the region on Monday. Lingering low level cyclonic flow into Se Mi, residual low level moisture and a late March sun angle my be enough to support a few diurnally enhanced light rain showers. Persistent low level cold air advection tonight will drop temps into the 30s. Subtle low level cooling into Tuesday afternoon and ample cloud cover will keep daytime temps in the 40s. As the upper low elongates to the east, lingering mid level troughing will hold to the north of the Great Lakes with decent mid level confluence across srn Mi. This will force a southern stream wave to remain suppressed well to the south of the state on Tuesday, with cool and cloudy conditions holding across Se Mi under residual low level moisture. Amplification of the flow across NOAM Wed into Thurs will force mid level ridging across Lower MI, sustaining dry conditions; perhaps into the weekend.

MARINE .

Afternoon observations across southern Michigan support gale force gusts on Saginaw Bay and Lakes St Clair and Erie. The low pressure advancing across the northern Great Lakes tonight will slowly weaken. This will lead to a slow but steady decrease in the southwest wind speeds during the night. The low will continue to weaken as it exits to the region to the east on Monday, leading to continued diminishing trends to the winds as they veer to the northwest. High pressure will expand across the region by Tuesday, leading to tranquil marine conditions through mid week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ060>063-068>070- 075-076-082-083.

Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for MIZ063-070.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.



AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi58 min SW 16 G 23
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi52 min WSW 13 G 26 49°F 1004.8 hPa (+3.9)40°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi52 min 49°F 1005 hPa (+3.6)
KP58 47 mi61 min SW 9.9 G 27 48°F 1002.4 hPa37°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI47 mi57 minSW 8 G 2010.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4N3CalmE6E10
G14
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SE4E8SE8SE9CalmSE7SE3S6S9S8SW17
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1 day agoCalmNE4CalmN4NE3CalmCalmCalmE4E6CalmN5N5NE8NE4NE6E8N4NE4N3CalmN3N3NE3
2 days agoN6N6N4N7N7
G14
N9N5N6N6N7N8N6N7NE6N7NE7CalmE3N3E6NE7NE6NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.