Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scar, ME
March 28, 2024 11:31 AM EDT (15:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 7:05 PM Moonrise 10:51 PM Moonset 7:43 AM |
ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1117 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
This afternoon - N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Patchy fog early. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri - N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Fri night - NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sat - NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night - W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 1117 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm swells continues to diminish today as rain and areas of fog move through the region a cold front will slip offshore Friday and increasing northwest winds are expected behind it. Gale force wind gusts are possible outside of the bays into Saturday. Gusty winds remain a feature through the rest of the weekend until high pressure takes over early next week.
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 281522 AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1122 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A front stalls across New England today, bringing increasing chances for rain. The steadiest and heaviest rains come Thursday night as low pressure tracks northward offshore. This along with significant snowpack ripening or, in the case of the coastal plain and adjacent interior, significant snowpack melt will increase the threat for flooding. Precipitation ends as snow Friday, especially across the higher terrain, before things become drier and gusty over the weekend. A weak system passes through early Sunday, and then a more significant system is possible toward the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
11:20am Update... No major changes with this update as the next round of rainfall continues to move toward the area for the afternoon hours. Patchy fog continues to linger in spots through the day, especially in spots where snow cover is still present.
Update...Reports coming in suggest a rapidly ripening snowpack.
Have expanded the watches northward to account for additional snowmelt runoff. NW counties excluded due to less QPF and shorter melt window. Rainfall overnight exceeded expectations by about 10% in southern areas. Will be evaluating the impact of extra rain and snowmelt into the river forecasts which will be coming out late morning.
Rainfall rates have been consistent with a steady light to occasionally moderate rain...around one tenth to one quarter inch per hour. Of note is that rain shield is a bit farther north than forecast...and early reports are that snowpack has ripened quickly into the foothills. I have adjusted PoP to bring everything up across the forecast area...and a flood watch expansion is possible with subsequent updates.
Previous discussion...Patchy fog continues this morning...mainly thanks to the colder snowpack in place. This is tending to keep the fog coming in waves as the warmer air pushes inland from the Gulf of ME. Fog has been occasionally dense in the Kennebec River Valley...but otherwise visibilities have been bouncing from around 1/2 mile to 4 or 5 miles. At this time dense fog does not appear to be widespread enough for an advisory.
Rainfall beginning to move into the forecast area at this hour.
A good soaking is expected...with HRRR mean QPF around 2 inches for coastal areas thru the event. Today rainfall rates will generally be light to moderate...but consistent thru the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
This evening and overnight guidance suggests that rainfall rates will pick up and may become briefly heavy at times. This will be the most likely window for flooding impacts if they were to occur
No change in the flood watch
which covers this time period nicely. After priming much of the snowpack today an additional inch or so of rain overnight combined with the snow melt will start to push small stream water levels up. Hi-res guidance is also coming around to the idea of more robust forcing as low pressure moves into the Gulf of ME...throwing QPF a littler farther west early Fri before coming to an end.
Rainfall is expected to quickly end from southwest to northeast however...as the cold front slips thru the forecast area finally. Gusty winds will develop late in the day as colder air moves into the region. This will also cool the column on the back edge of precip and some of that precip is expected to change from rain to snow. This is especially true in the higher elevations...though a period of freezing rain is possible there as well as colder air undercuts the mild air mass currently in place.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overview: A negatively titled trough and deepening coastal low will sustain snow into Saturday, mainly in our eastern most zones. A weak wave then crosses Sunday with the bulk of the forcing missing us to the south, but New Hampshire may still get clipped with some light rain/snow showers. Some shortwave ridging builds for Monday and most of Tuesday before a potentially significant system approaches in the mid-week time frame.
Impacts: *Slick travel is possible Friday night as snow exits the area.
*Confidence is increasing, but still low, in a potentially significant system toward the middle of next week that may bring heavy rain or snow (or both).
Details: Snow will be coming to an end overnight/early Saturday morning as low pressure continues its northward journey into the Canadian Maritimes. It deepens as it does so, and with high pressure nosing into the region this looks to create a very tight pressure gradient. Widespread wind gusts overnight Friday and Saturday may be in the 30-35 mph range with locally higher gusts in the mountain terrain. Low temperatures Friday night look to be in the 20s north of the mountains and low 30s to the south, but with elevated winds expect it to feel about 10 degrees colder. Abundant sunshine likely helps temperatures warm into the upper 30s and 40s Saturday. Winds will quickly diminish overnight Saturday as the low exits the region and the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds won't exactly be going calm overnight so would expect good mixing to continue and keep lows only a few degrees cooler than the night before.
A shortwave trough passes overhead Sunday with a weak area of low pressure exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This should keep the bulk of the forcing to our south, but some light snow and/or rain showers can't be ruled out during the day in New Hampshire. Ridging builds in overnight Sunday setting Monday up to be clear, dry and warm.
Tuesday remains mostly dry as well, but the evening begins our window to watch for the possibility of another significant spring storm. The global models tell a similar story with a deep upper trough phasing with a strong coastal low, but unsurprisingly they differ on timing, precip type, and track.
And it is not just each other they disagree with, significant run to run waffling amongst themselves has made it difficult to have confidence in anything more than "there looks like there will be some sort of a system in the neighborhood next week". We will continue to monitor trends as hopefully some details become clearer over the next few days.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...Widespread IFR or lower conditions this morning.
Much like yesterday some improvement in CIGs is possible during the daylight hours...but moreso LIFR to IFR with plenty of rainfall moving into the area. Likely not looking at significant improvement in flight categories until cold front moves thru the local area Fri. South of the mtns rapid improvement to VFR is forecast once winds go northwest...while upslope clouds keep MVFR CIGs to the northwest. Those northwest winds will increase...with surface gusts at or above 25 kt at times.
Long Term...VFR should prevail for most areas by Friday night.
RKD to AUG and points eastward will likely still see some MVFR/IFR overnight in lingering snow, but improve to VFR by daybreak Saturday. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be gusting from the northwest upwards of 30 kts for most areas. The next chance for any restrictions will come with a weak system passing through Sunday, but this should just be MVFR ceilings and light rain/snow showers mainly confined to southern terminals. Conditions improve back to VFR through Monday.
MARINE
Short Term...Swell continues to diminish this morning...remaining around 5 ft thru the day. With long period nature I have cancelled the SCA...especially considering that winds are forecast to increase and become gusty behind the cold front Fri. A gale watch has been issued for the waters outside the bays thru the first part of Sat.
Long Term...Northwesterly gales continue through the night Friday behind departing low pressure. SCA conditions gradually diminish through Saturday. By daybreak Sunday high pressure will be settling over the waters keeping winds and waves below SCA criteria through Monday.
HYDROLOGY
A flood watch remains in effect for all but far NW counties where QPF and melt window is less. The primary impact will be small stream and river rises, and flooding along low water crossing and urban areas due to rain and snowmelt. Moderate rainfall will combine with warmer temperatures and high dewpoints for snowmelt, with losses of 1.25 to 2.25" from the existing snowpack, less in the headwaters. The snowpack is ripening rapidly as the snowpack becomes isothermal. MWN reported a loss of 14" depth in 24 hrs during this period of warm temps and high dewpoints. Other observers have reported significant compression/melt of the snowpack since yesterday.
This trend will continue today and for part of the area into tomorrow. The latest forecasts show river rises across all watersheds, with isolated minor flood levels reached.
Rainfall exceeded expectations overnight, and the latest QPF reflects higher amounts to come particularly in the Midcoast. The latest forecast track will keep the heaviest rainfall across central and eastern Maine, with the regional flood risk highest along the MidCoast and lower Kennebec River Valley with 2-3" of rain and 1-2" of snowmelt. Though there will be less rainfall, the cumulative rain/snow runoff could be sufficient for small stream and urban issues into southern NH and SW ME. A slight wobble in the track or longer duration of rain could easily result in more widespread impacts. Moderate river flooding is not expected at the time of this issuance, with probabilities less than 10%. Note: Many climate sites are in the top 5 wettest on record, with this late month event expected to approach all time records for Augusta and Portland. Portland's record 11.24" in 2010, Augusta's is 9.71" in 1953.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ009-012>014-019>022- 024>028-033.
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MEZ018-023.
NH...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NHZ004-006-008>015.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for ANZ150-152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1122 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A front stalls across New England today, bringing increasing chances for rain. The steadiest and heaviest rains come Thursday night as low pressure tracks northward offshore. This along with significant snowpack ripening or, in the case of the coastal plain and adjacent interior, significant snowpack melt will increase the threat for flooding. Precipitation ends as snow Friday, especially across the higher terrain, before things become drier and gusty over the weekend. A weak system passes through early Sunday, and then a more significant system is possible toward the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
11:20am Update... No major changes with this update as the next round of rainfall continues to move toward the area for the afternoon hours. Patchy fog continues to linger in spots through the day, especially in spots where snow cover is still present.
Update...Reports coming in suggest a rapidly ripening snowpack.
Have expanded the watches northward to account for additional snowmelt runoff. NW counties excluded due to less QPF and shorter melt window. Rainfall overnight exceeded expectations by about 10% in southern areas. Will be evaluating the impact of extra rain and snowmelt into the river forecasts which will be coming out late morning.
Rainfall rates have been consistent with a steady light to occasionally moderate rain...around one tenth to one quarter inch per hour. Of note is that rain shield is a bit farther north than forecast...and early reports are that snowpack has ripened quickly into the foothills. I have adjusted PoP to bring everything up across the forecast area...and a flood watch expansion is possible with subsequent updates.
Previous discussion...Patchy fog continues this morning...mainly thanks to the colder snowpack in place. This is tending to keep the fog coming in waves as the warmer air pushes inland from the Gulf of ME. Fog has been occasionally dense in the Kennebec River Valley...but otherwise visibilities have been bouncing from around 1/2 mile to 4 or 5 miles. At this time dense fog does not appear to be widespread enough for an advisory.
Rainfall beginning to move into the forecast area at this hour.
A good soaking is expected...with HRRR mean QPF around 2 inches for coastal areas thru the event. Today rainfall rates will generally be light to moderate...but consistent thru the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
This evening and overnight guidance suggests that rainfall rates will pick up and may become briefly heavy at times. This will be the most likely window for flooding impacts if they were to occur
No change in the flood watch
which covers this time period nicely. After priming much of the snowpack today an additional inch or so of rain overnight combined with the snow melt will start to push small stream water levels up. Hi-res guidance is also coming around to the idea of more robust forcing as low pressure moves into the Gulf of ME...throwing QPF a littler farther west early Fri before coming to an end.
Rainfall is expected to quickly end from southwest to northeast however...as the cold front slips thru the forecast area finally. Gusty winds will develop late in the day as colder air moves into the region. This will also cool the column on the back edge of precip and some of that precip is expected to change from rain to snow. This is especially true in the higher elevations...though a period of freezing rain is possible there as well as colder air undercuts the mild air mass currently in place.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overview: A negatively titled trough and deepening coastal low will sustain snow into Saturday, mainly in our eastern most zones. A weak wave then crosses Sunday with the bulk of the forcing missing us to the south, but New Hampshire may still get clipped with some light rain/snow showers. Some shortwave ridging builds for Monday and most of Tuesday before a potentially significant system approaches in the mid-week time frame.
Impacts: *Slick travel is possible Friday night as snow exits the area.
*Confidence is increasing, but still low, in a potentially significant system toward the middle of next week that may bring heavy rain or snow (or both).
Details: Snow will be coming to an end overnight/early Saturday morning as low pressure continues its northward journey into the Canadian Maritimes. It deepens as it does so, and with high pressure nosing into the region this looks to create a very tight pressure gradient. Widespread wind gusts overnight Friday and Saturday may be in the 30-35 mph range with locally higher gusts in the mountain terrain. Low temperatures Friday night look to be in the 20s north of the mountains and low 30s to the south, but with elevated winds expect it to feel about 10 degrees colder. Abundant sunshine likely helps temperatures warm into the upper 30s and 40s Saturday. Winds will quickly diminish overnight Saturday as the low exits the region and the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds won't exactly be going calm overnight so would expect good mixing to continue and keep lows only a few degrees cooler than the night before.
A shortwave trough passes overhead Sunday with a weak area of low pressure exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This should keep the bulk of the forcing to our south, but some light snow and/or rain showers can't be ruled out during the day in New Hampshire. Ridging builds in overnight Sunday setting Monday up to be clear, dry and warm.
Tuesday remains mostly dry as well, but the evening begins our window to watch for the possibility of another significant spring storm. The global models tell a similar story with a deep upper trough phasing with a strong coastal low, but unsurprisingly they differ on timing, precip type, and track.
And it is not just each other they disagree with, significant run to run waffling amongst themselves has made it difficult to have confidence in anything more than "there looks like there will be some sort of a system in the neighborhood next week". We will continue to monitor trends as hopefully some details become clearer over the next few days.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...Widespread IFR or lower conditions this morning.
Much like yesterday some improvement in CIGs is possible during the daylight hours...but moreso LIFR to IFR with plenty of rainfall moving into the area. Likely not looking at significant improvement in flight categories until cold front moves thru the local area Fri. South of the mtns rapid improvement to VFR is forecast once winds go northwest...while upslope clouds keep MVFR CIGs to the northwest. Those northwest winds will increase...with surface gusts at or above 25 kt at times.
Long Term...VFR should prevail for most areas by Friday night.
RKD to AUG and points eastward will likely still see some MVFR/IFR overnight in lingering snow, but improve to VFR by daybreak Saturday. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be gusting from the northwest upwards of 30 kts for most areas. The next chance for any restrictions will come with a weak system passing through Sunday, but this should just be MVFR ceilings and light rain/snow showers mainly confined to southern terminals. Conditions improve back to VFR through Monday.
MARINE
Short Term...Swell continues to diminish this morning...remaining around 5 ft thru the day. With long period nature I have cancelled the SCA...especially considering that winds are forecast to increase and become gusty behind the cold front Fri. A gale watch has been issued for the waters outside the bays thru the first part of Sat.
Long Term...Northwesterly gales continue through the night Friday behind departing low pressure. SCA conditions gradually diminish through Saturday. By daybreak Sunday high pressure will be settling over the waters keeping winds and waves below SCA criteria through Monday.
HYDROLOGY
A flood watch remains in effect for all but far NW counties where QPF and melt window is less. The primary impact will be small stream and river rises, and flooding along low water crossing and urban areas due to rain and snowmelt. Moderate rainfall will combine with warmer temperatures and high dewpoints for snowmelt, with losses of 1.25 to 2.25" from the existing snowpack, less in the headwaters. The snowpack is ripening rapidly as the snowpack becomes isothermal. MWN reported a loss of 14" depth in 24 hrs during this period of warm temps and high dewpoints. Other observers have reported significant compression/melt of the snowpack since yesterday.
This trend will continue today and for part of the area into tomorrow. The latest forecasts show river rises across all watersheds, with isolated minor flood levels reached.
Rainfall exceeded expectations overnight, and the latest QPF reflects higher amounts to come particularly in the Midcoast. The latest forecast track will keep the heaviest rainfall across central and eastern Maine, with the regional flood risk highest along the MidCoast and lower Kennebec River Valley with 2-3" of rain and 1-2" of snowmelt. Though there will be less rainfall, the cumulative rain/snow runoff could be sufficient for small stream and urban issues into southern NH and SW ME. A slight wobble in the track or longer duration of rain could easily result in more widespread impacts. Moderate river flooding is not expected at the time of this issuance, with probabilities less than 10%. Note: Many climate sites are in the top 5 wettest on record, with this late month event expected to approach all time records for Augusta and Portland. Portland's record 11.24" in 2010, Augusta's is 9.71" in 1953.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ009-012>014-019>022- 024>028-033.
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MEZ018-023.
NH...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NHZ004-006-008>015.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for ANZ150-152-154.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME | 7 mi | 44 min | ESE 4.1G | 44°F | 40°F | 29.93 | ||
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME | 8 mi | 22 min | W 1.9G | 42°F | 40°F | 29.93 | 40°F | |
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME | 21 mi | 32 min | SE 1 | 44°F | 44°F | |||
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf | 27 mi | 88 min | SE 5.8G | 42°F | 41°F | 5 ft | 29.92 | |
44073 | 40 mi | 37 min | SW 1.9G | 45°F | ||||
CMLN3 | 41 mi | 151 min | WNW 7 | 44°F | 42°F | |||
SEIM1 | 41 mi | 44 min | 45°F | 41°F | 29.96 | 45°F | ||
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH | 45 mi | 47 min | NE 1 | 46°F | 29.95 | 45°F | ||
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH | 45 mi | 32 min | S 5.1G | 43°F | 29.94 | 43°F |
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No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPWM PORTLAND INTL JETPORT,ME | 6 sm | 40 min | ESE 04 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 46°F | 46°F | 100% | 29.95 |
Richmond Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT 9.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT 8.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT 9.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT 8.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Richmond Island, Maine, Tide feet
12 am |
8.1 |
1 am |
9.1 |
2 am |
9.1 |
3 am |
8.1 |
4 am |
6.2 |
5 am |
4 |
6 am |
1.8 |
7 am |
0.5 |
8 am |
0.3 |
9 am |
1.1 |
10 am |
2.7 |
11 am |
4.8 |
12 pm |
6.8 |
1 pm |
8.2 |
2 pm |
8.6 |
3 pm |
8.1 |
4 pm |
6.7 |
5 pm |
4.8 |
6 pm |
2.8 |
7 pm |
1.4 |
8 pm |
1 |
9 pm |
1.6 |
10 pm |
3.1 |
11 pm |
5.1 |
Portland Head Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT 9.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EDT 8.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT 0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT 9.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EDT 8.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT 0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Portland Head Light, Maine, Tide feet
12 am |
8 |
1 am |
9 |
2 am |
9 |
3 am |
8 |
4 am |
6.2 |
5 am |
4 |
6 am |
1.9 |
7 am |
0.5 |
8 am |
0.3 |
9 am |
1.1 |
10 am |
2.6 |
11 am |
4.7 |
12 pm |
6.7 |
1 pm |
8.1 |
2 pm |
8.5 |
3 pm |
8 |
4 pm |
6.7 |
5 pm |
4.7 |
6 pm |
2.8 |
7 pm |
1.4 |
8 pm |
1 |
9 pm |
1.6 |
10 pm |
3 |
11 pm |
5 |
Portland, ME,
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