Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:11PM Friday May 29, 2020 10:30 PM EDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 944 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202005300915;;963565 FZUS53 KDTX 300144 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 944 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-300915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 292324 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 724 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

AVIATION.

Lingering shower activity along cold front will be sparse and largely bypass terminals now that thunderstorm has passes east of KFNT. Northwest winds will be prominent as main cold front passes this evening. Some degree of lower VFR cigs will filter into the area overnight and perhaps reform with diurnal mixing Saturday afternoon after a period of sct clouds in the morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for ceilings below 5000 feet overnight and low Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

Mid level trough axis anchored over Lake Michigan mid afternoon will sweep across the local area through the evening hours. Gradual boundary layer recovery just downstream in the wake of earlier precipitation will leave a modestly unstable resident environment - roughly 500-700 j/kg of MLCAPE centered across central lower MI. Brief increase in mid level ascent tied to this feature will then maintain the chance for a linear axis of low topped showers/isolated thunder to emerge along the attendant secondary cold front. Recent model guidance points to an eastward propagating narrow broken line centered 20z-01z, offering a brief window /less than 30-45 minutes at any one location/ for gusty winds and a brief heavy downpour. Greater precipitation potential with northward extent.

Ensuing post-frontal cold/dry air advection strengthens overnight and continues through the day Saturday under deeper layer northwest flow. High degree of early day insolation potential, before a standard diurnal cu field emerges within the steep lapse rate environment. Resident thermal profile and mixing potential continue to support highs in the 60s. Brief period of northwest gusts near 25 mph given the projected mixing depth. Trailing shortwave energy skirting the northern great lakes late Saturday will effectively reinforce a cooler/drier resident environment, even offering a secondary period of cold air advection overnight. Conditions Sunday then marked by a high degree of stability under building high pressure and increasingly confluent mid level northwest flow. Full sunshine effectively moderates daytime temperatures back into the 60s.

Southeast Michigan will reside within the immediate downstream periphery of expanding upper level high pressure projected to encompass the central conus throughout the early-mid week period. Initial period of building upper heights across a lingering stable low level environment yields dry and seasonable conditions on Monday. Deep layer warm/moist air advection, perhaps augmented by shortwave energy working across the instability gradient, will promote convective organization over the the upper Mississippi valley/western great lakes late in the day. Some degree of downstream expansion will then be possible Monday night, as this activity lodges within the pronounced eastward mid level advective process. This will introduce at least a chance for showers/elevated thunder late Monday night or early Tuesday. Deep theta-e plume then folds across lower Michigan throughout the Tuesday period, reestablishing a moist and increasing unstable environment. Convective prospects and vigor certainly ill-defined both Tuesday and Wednesday at this stage, reliant on timing of yet resolved smaller scale forcing contributions to capitalize on an underlying thermodynamic setup and supportive deep layer wind fields that could offer possible greater convective organization.

MARINE .

The main cold front will exit the region and move into the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with a secondary cold front moving across the central Great Lakes later this afternoon/evening. This secondary front will keep shower chances in the forecast through the evening. A bit stronger northwest flow sets up behind the fronts with winds 15-20kts through Saturday. High pressure builds over the region early Sunday and remains overhead through the day Monday bringing quiet marine conditions for the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again late Monday into Tuesday as the next low pressure system begins to move into the central Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi30 min WNW 14 G 16 64°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.6)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi50 min SSW 2.9 G 8 64°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi50 min N 1 G 5.1 56°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi37 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F59°F93%1014.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi35 minN 410.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F53°F80%1014.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi35 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F55°F88%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8SW12
G23
W6W3NW3N5W6NW4NW8NW9N13
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N9NW6W6W8W4--S86SE8SE7SW4SW4
1 day agoS6S4S4S4S3CalmCalmSE4SW7S4S4S5S10S10S11S13
G20
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S9SW9S10S9W3S7
2 days agoS7S4S5S6S4SE4SE4SE4SE3S5S8S6S5SE7S14
G19
S12S12S11SE8S10S12S10S7SW8
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.