Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:34PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:01 PM EDT (01:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 358 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west early in the morning. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908210315;;945402 FZUS53 KDTX 201958 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 358 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-210315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 202327
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
issued by national weather service grand rapids mi
727 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Aviation
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact terminal
locations in southeast michigan this evening with the activity
expected to end by 03z. Dry weather is expected overnight with the
potential for fog development around sunrise.

For dtw... Showers and thunderstorms will continue through about 0130
utc with dry weather expected for the overnight hours. Ceilings
around 2500 kft agl with storms with visibilities down around 2sm in
heavy rainfall. MVFR fog expected around sunrise. Westerly wind
develops Wednesday afternoon with gusts near 20 kts possible.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet this evening, medium
confidence of MVFR visibilities due to fog around sunrise.

* high confidence in thunderstorms this evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 337 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
discussion...

scattered showers and thunderstorms continue oriented southwest to
northeast along an area of subtle isentropic ascent and where
greatest moisture transport vectors have set up across the state. A
couple of moving pieces to note and watch out for heading into the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. To start, SPC rap guidance
and latest hi-res models hold CAPE between 1500 - 2000 j kg mainly
across the tri-cities area into the thumb (tied to increase moisture
surge) and a secondary area of higher CAPE up to 2000 j kg building
in across the southern metro area. Additionally, low-level lapse
rates AOA 7c km in conjunction with supportive tei profiles and
larger dew point depression spread at the surface help support the
idea of strong wind gusts to 40 mph, with a possible isolated
downburst to 60 mph. Hail cannot be completely ruled out as mid-
level lapse rates also hold around 7c km with effective bulk shear
around 25 knots.

Second, an MCV complex currently located over southern lake huron
and northern indiana has maintained a more east to west propagation,
contrary to many cams advertising a northwest to southeast
propagation. This system is also translating faster to the east
relative to the 12z hi-res output. Given that the MCV complex is
moving east into an area of high instability, there is a chance this
system will hold together and produce showers and thunderstorms for
the southern metro region centered between 20-04z. Prior to the
potential arrival of the mcv, amplification of a shortwave will allow
the nose of higher theta-e to fill in across the metro area between
20 - 00z, which will bring the chance to see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Overall the main message -- isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from flint up to the
tri- cities and thumb this afternoon, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances expanding across the metro area during the early
evening onwards. Low-level cap in place may help diminish activity
vs. The competing instability in place but the approaching MCV will
have to continue to be monitored as it travels east towards the cwa.

There will be a marginal risk for severe weather for all of SE mi,
mainly for wind gust concerns.

Pv anomaly (tied to the mcv) is projected to move east of the CWA by
06z Wednesday and will travel into new england by Wednesday
afternoon, leaving SE mi under zonal flow in the mid-levels.

Subsidence on the back side of the anomaly will allow for clearing
of cloud cover overnight, especially for the tri-cities and thumb
with more active subsidence in place. Did not include in this
forecast package due to uncertainty, but given residual
precipitation and moist boundary layer with the subsidence, will
need to watch for fog development overnight.

Upper-level closed low and developing surface low pressure system
will move east across ontario Wednesday into Thursday and will allow
a cold front to pull across SE mi sometime between Wednesday morning
- Wednesday afternoon and will bring the chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Will carry a chance of precipitation through the
passage of the front as atmosphere is relatively dry (1000-500 mb rh
aob 50%) and lack of overall synoptic forcing. Warm and humid
temperatures will be able to hold on through the afternoon with
highs in the 80s, but relief will fill in during the evening and
will lead to overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s and dp dropping
into the 50s.

Southern periphery of a high pressure system to fill in throughout
Thursday which will start an extended period of dry weather with
lower humidity and temperatures that are below the seasonal norm
with highs in the 70s.

Friday will be cloudy and cooler as upper level trough lingers over
the region. A cold front dropping through the state in advance of
canadian surface high pressure will keep clouds prevalent with
northerly flow but model soundings look very dry minimizing the rain
potential. Cool northerly flow continues Saturday into Sunday as the
surface high, centered to our north over ontario, slides east. An
amplifying mid level ridge axis will then pass over on Sunday
allowing southern return flow back into the state. After a few days
where highs only reach in the 70s, temps on Sunday should finally
rise back into the low 80s which is normal for late august. Next
shot for showers will hold off til around Monday when a strong mid
level wave and associate surface low lift through the northern
lakes. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the front will push
temperatures into the mid 80s Monday.

Marine...

light southerly winds this evening will give way to northwest winds
tomorrow as a cold front drops south through the central great
lakes. A push of much cooler air over lake huron Wednesday evening
will result in winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots, with
brief slightly higher gusts possible over northern lake huron. Winds
will gradually diminish on Thursday into Friday as high pressure
nudges into the region from the northwest.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... .Mws(grr)
discussion... Am drk
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi62 min S 4.1 G 6 75°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.3)
45163 40 mi42 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 75°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi82 min SE 6 G 8 74°F 1012.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi82 min S 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi69 minESE 310.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1012.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair74°F68°F84%1012.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair79°F66°F65%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4Calm4--------CalmNW3SW3CalmCalmCalmE4E5E3S63S8S7--W4W10SE3
1 day agoW7W10SW6SW7SW6--SW6----W4W5W4N6Calm--CalmSW3--NW5--4SW6S8SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4S6S6--S6SW3S6S6----S10S13SW12SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.