Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harper, OR
May 19, 2024 11:44 PM MDT (05:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 9:11 PM Moonrise 4:34 PM Moonset 3:26 AM |
FXUS65 KBOI 200250 AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 850 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
DISCUSSION
The light shower activity has expanded into northern Malheur County this evening and the forecast was updated to account for this trend. The showers end by midnight based on the latest hi-res model guidance. The core of an upper low pressure system will move through central Idaho on Monday.
The system will support a 15-30 percent chance of showers in the SW Idaho valleys and a 30-60 percent chance of showers in the central Idaho mountains. Snow levels near 5000 feet in the morning rise to 6000 feet in the afternoon. There is minimal support for thunderstorms, but enough for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) in the afternoon. Gusty winds up to 40 mph will accompany the storms. High temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Winds increase through the late morning into the afternoon, with widespread north-northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph.
AVIATION
Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the central ID mountains tonight into Monday morning. Showers will increase and expand in coverage on Monday, mainly across southwest ID, with isolated thunderstorms also developing. Mountains obscured in showers. Snow levels 5-6kft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt, with gusts to 30 kt Monday afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt possible near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Showers developing Monday afternoon over the foothills, with a 20% chance of showers reaching the terminal.
Prescribed fires in the Boise foothills may bring haze and reduced visibility aloft. NW winds overnight, becoming gusty by late Monday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday night
As one wave exits eastward another wave will push through the region tonight and Monday. This system will support a broad 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon across far SE Oregon and much of SW Idaho. The thunderstorm threat remains minimal, 15-20%, but storms that form could bring gusty winds to 40 mph.
Outside of thunderstorms winds will ramp up Monday afternoon, becoming sustained 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph across a broad area. Tuesday is dry and not as windy in response to a passing shortwave ridge. This break is shortlived as the next low pressure system will push a cold front and precipitation into the area Tuesday night with snow levels around 7kft MSL.
Temperatures will warm slightly each day through Tuesday.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday
An upper low will track through the Pac NW on Wednesday bringing widespread showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms. A reinforcing cold front will cross the region late Wednesday as the low pushes through Idaho. This frontal passage will cut off much of the precipitation across lower elevations while e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho keep a 30-60% chance of rain and snow through Thursday. With better model agreement on the low track through NE Oregon and central Idaho, QPF amounts have trended lower along the I-84 corridor and areas to the south and west for Wed/Thur. Snow levels of 6-7kft MSL on Wednesday will fall to 4500-5500 feet on Thursday. That said, any notable accumulation will be limited to higher peaks above 6500ft MSL where totals of 3-8 inches are expected through Thursday. The pattern remains active, through the weekend with the next cold low dropping into the Pac NW on Saturday. The current forecast track would again place the focus of heavier precipitation across e-central Oregon and the w-central Idaho mountains.
Winds will remain breezy, increasing each afternoon across open and higher terrain. Temperatures will be below normal through the weekend, with Wednesday and Thursday the coolest days at 10-15 degrees below normal.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
OR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 850 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
DISCUSSION
The light shower activity has expanded into northern Malheur County this evening and the forecast was updated to account for this trend. The showers end by midnight based on the latest hi-res model guidance. The core of an upper low pressure system will move through central Idaho on Monday.
The system will support a 15-30 percent chance of showers in the SW Idaho valleys and a 30-60 percent chance of showers in the central Idaho mountains. Snow levels near 5000 feet in the morning rise to 6000 feet in the afternoon. There is minimal support for thunderstorms, but enough for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) in the afternoon. Gusty winds up to 40 mph will accompany the storms. High temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Winds increase through the late morning into the afternoon, with widespread north-northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph.
AVIATION
Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the central ID mountains tonight into Monday morning. Showers will increase and expand in coverage on Monday, mainly across southwest ID, with isolated thunderstorms also developing. Mountains obscured in showers. Snow levels 5-6kft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt, with gusts to 30 kt Monday afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt possible near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Showers developing Monday afternoon over the foothills, with a 20% chance of showers reaching the terminal.
Prescribed fires in the Boise foothills may bring haze and reduced visibility aloft. NW winds overnight, becoming gusty by late Monday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday night
As one wave exits eastward another wave will push through the region tonight and Monday. This system will support a broad 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon across far SE Oregon and much of SW Idaho. The thunderstorm threat remains minimal, 15-20%, but storms that form could bring gusty winds to 40 mph.
Outside of thunderstorms winds will ramp up Monday afternoon, becoming sustained 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph across a broad area. Tuesday is dry and not as windy in response to a passing shortwave ridge. This break is shortlived as the next low pressure system will push a cold front and precipitation into the area Tuesday night with snow levels around 7kft MSL.
Temperatures will warm slightly each day through Tuesday.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday
An upper low will track through the Pac NW on Wednesday bringing widespread showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms. A reinforcing cold front will cross the region late Wednesday as the low pushes through Idaho. This frontal passage will cut off much of the precipitation across lower elevations while e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho keep a 30-60% chance of rain and snow through Thursday. With better model agreement on the low track through NE Oregon and central Idaho, QPF amounts have trended lower along the I-84 corridor and areas to the south and west for Wed/Thur. Snow levels of 6-7kft MSL on Wednesday will fall to 4500-5500 feet on Thursday. That said, any notable accumulation will be limited to higher peaks above 6500ft MSL where totals of 3-8 inches are expected through Thursday. The pattern remains active, through the weekend with the next cold low dropping into the Pac NW on Saturday. The current forecast track would again place the focus of heavier precipitation across e-central Oregon and the w-central Idaho mountains.
Winds will remain breezy, increasing each afternoon across open and higher terrain. Temperatures will be below normal through the weekend, with Wednesday and Thursday the coolest days at 10-15 degrees below normal.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
OR...None.
Boise, ID,
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