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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 217 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue overnight tonight. The resulting south wind waves will combine with a large westerly swell. A cold front will pass through the waters on Sunday with winds and high and steep seas remaining highest north of cape blanco. A thermal through develops Monday with winds becoming northerly. Seas south of gold beach may become steep Monday into Monday night.

FXUS66 KMFR 092222 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 222 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023


SHORT TERM

The leading edge of the next atmospheric river and warm front has hit areas in central Oregon this afternoon. Most of the precipitation is falling to our north today, although the axis of moisture will slide to the south by Sunday. This will result in a very good chance of rain for all locations and perhaps some snow above 8000 feet. Those chances of rain decrease as ones moves farther to the south and east. Those waiting for snow over the higher terrain and mountains will have to wait a bit longer as the airmass is fairly warm with this precipitation event on Sunday.

A cold front will slide down from the north as a short wave swings through the region Sunday evening. The cold front doesn't appear to move that far to the east farther inland. Instead it looks like some cooler air just shoots down the coastline. In any case, the chance of rain will persist Monday morning with snow levels decreasing down to 6300 feet Monday morning. Showers are the most likely precipitation mode for most of Monday.

By Monday night, high pressure will begin to build with a thermal trough setting up along the Oregon coastline. Some light easterly flow will begin to develop, which should result in some drier and warmer air along the Oregon coastline, especially on the ridges.
This is a good pattern for fog in the valleys during the morning as high pressure builds after some wetting rain in the soils.
We added fog into the forecast to show this concern.

Overall, an active weather pattern for the next few days, although impacts should be minimal to the public at large. The fog Monday night into Tuesday could pose some issues with aviation or perhaps the morning commute.

-Smith

LONG TERM
Tuesday through next Saturday. Tuesday starts with an upper ridge over the west coast with the upper trough that brought precipitation to the region moving eastward, leaving continued low level moisture in the valleys. Ensemble plots are in very good agreement with the upper ridge shifting to the east by Wednesday afternoon, with the next front moving rain into the coast Wednesday.
Models then begin to diverge greatly, but the majority are keeping precipitation from the Cascades westward into Thursday. Although the ensemble plots diverge greatly Thursday afternoon into Friday, the majority of the ensemble members are showing ridging and dry with morning west side valley fog. Roughly half of the ECMWF and GFS meteograms are showing precipitation reaching inland to Medford next weekend, with an increasing number of members keeping a wet pattern after next weekend through most of the following week. -Sven



AVIATION
09/18Z TAFs...Mid and high level clouds are advancing into the northwest portion of southwest Oregon ahead of a warm front. The front will be focused north of our area today while high pressure builds into northern California.

A stubborn IFR ceiling is hanging around KMFR but it is beginning to thin and the sun is visible through it so expect VFR conditions by 20Z.

This afternoon into the evening, rain is expected at the coast into northern and central Douglas County, especially from Cape Blanco northward, including North Bend and Roseburg. This will also likely produce patchy MVFR and obscuration of the higher peaks of the Coastal Range. Meantime, VFR is expected elsewhere before patchy fog develops in parts of the Rogue Valley again.
-DW/Hermansen/Sargeant

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Saturday December 9, 2023...Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue over the coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. The strongest winds will occur north of Port Orford.

The strong winds combined with a large westerly swell will create hazardous conditions to small craft for all waters through Sunday evening.

A cold front will pass through the waters Sunday into Sunday evening with very slowly improving conditions while winds and high and steep seas remain highest in the northern portion of the waters. Moderate seas are likely by late Sunday night.

A weak thermal through develops along the coast early Monday with winds becoming northerly. Swell heights will diminish while sea conditions south of Gold Beach may barely cross the threshold into becoming steep Monday into Monday night.

Noticeable improvement is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast uncertainty increases from Wednesday onward, but a building long period west-northwest swell at 17 to 18 seconds is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
-Sven/Sargeant

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Entrance
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Sat -- 02:37 AM PST     2.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM PST     7.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:03 PM PST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:36 PM PST     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
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Sat -- 03:58 AM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:10 AM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:24 PM PST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:42 PM PST     5.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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