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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 934 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny late in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 081702 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1202 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023


AVIATION

Moisture will continue to funnel north within increased south to southwest flow in advance of developing low pressure to the west.
Lower VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot layer will lower to MVFR overnight tonight into Saturday with scattered rain showers also increasing in coverage, especially by 12z or so Saturday morning.
Ultimately, cigs in the 1000-1500 foot range will predominate as this shower activity maximizes during the day Saturday as the aforementioned low pressure tracks north-northeast through Lake Michigan into northern lower MI. Wind gusts will reach 18-20 kts at times this afternoon into this evening and then peak closer to 25 knots by midday Saturday within strongest pressure gradient.

For DTW...Ceilings will oscillate near 5kft this afternoon into this evening and then lower solidly into the MVFR range overnight into Saturday as scattered rain showers work into the area. While a few sprinkles may occur overnight, most activity will focus on Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon. High tonight into Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION...

Mild weather to persist into the first half of the weekend as the amplified North American ridge tracks through.

Yesterday's highs peaked out in the upper 40s, a good 10 degrees above normal. Today and Saturday will be even warmer.

Some very warm air was noted over the western Ohio Valley, with the 00z ILX raob indicating a 925 mb temp of 13 C and a 850 mb temp of 14 C. Increasing southwest flow today will bring some of this warm air into the state, but an increase moisture and isentropic ascent will help cool the temperature profiles. Increasing clouds during the day will cap our warm up. Even so, NAM looks overly moist, and will favor Euro mos maxes today in the mid 50s, with support from the regional GEM 925 mb temps of 7+ C. Local probabilistic guidance supporting wind gusts around 25 mph with the daytime mixing depths.

Continued moist low level flow with dew pts pushing into the 40s will eventually lead to light showers/drizzle, as a good height fall center looks to be tracking through Lake Michigan Saturday morning. Showalter index falling to around zero with steep 700-500 mb lapse rates normally offers up a chance of thunderstorms as the 50 knot low level jets traverses the Central Great Lakes, but mid level dry slot and little in the way of cape suggests otherwise and will leave thunder out. In fact, bulk of the rainfall looks to be passing northwest of CWA, despite PW Values increasing to near 1 inch. With limited clouds depths, probably going to be hard pressed to even see a tenth of an inch of rain. If there is less drizzle/light showers around, temperatures certainly can reach 60+ degrees, otherwise upper 50s can be expected. The record daily high temperatures (see climate section) for December 9th looked to be tied or broken.

A distinctly positive tilted trough over Central North America will bring colder weather for the second half of weekend as a cold front looks to be passing through late in the day on Saturday. A low/wave attempts to ride the baroclinic zone in between Central/Eastern Great Lakes as the longwave trough axis trends neutral tilted. Still likely too late for significant precipitation to impact us per vast majority of medium range models/ensemble members, but there is a chance eastern areas may get clipped with showers before colder air sweeps in, with 850 mb temps progged to lower to -10 C on Sunday.

Unfavorable northwest flow and just modestly cold enough airmass around for Sunday to support a chance of flurries/isolated melting snow showers as the trough axis swings through Sunday evening.

Shortwave ridging for Monday with another potential cold front for Tuesday, but bulk of cold air and height falls expected to remain over northern Great Lakes/Ontario. So, good chance the weakening cold front comes through dry with the lack of moisture and forcing.

MARINE...

Tight pressure gradient sits over the Great Lakes this morning as influence of southeast CONUS high pressure is gradually replaced with a strong and expansive surface low lifting toward Hudson Bay.
Currently backed surface flow veers to the SW as the low departs, but sustained winds still hold around 15 to 20 knots. A seasonably warm airmass keeps conditions stable and gusts comfortably below 30 knots today. Low pressure then brings widespread rain to the region Saturday, dragging a cold front through in the afternoon. A brief uptick in gusts to near gale force is possible along the front, but quick departure of the low level jet ensures just a short window of opportunity Saturday afternoon/early evening. Second round of low pressure on Sunday stays far enough east to limit wind potential with just a subset of guidance showing the edge of the precipitation shield clipping western Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair. Further north across Lake Huron, cooler northwest flow sets up a pattern conducive to lake effect snow showers Sunday and Monday.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record high temperatures for December 9th:

Detroit 58 (set in 1946)
Flint 59 (set in 1946)
Saginaw 58 (set in 1952)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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