Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:14PM Friday February 21, 2020 11:21 AM EST (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 4:15PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 958 Am Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon. Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202002212215;;877866 FZUS53 KDTX 211458 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-212215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 211049 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 549 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

AVIATION.

High pressure will maintain clear skies this forecast. Southwest flow around the northern fringe of this high will persist through the entire forecast with gusts into the 20-25 knot range peaking during strongest diurnal mixing this afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 340 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

DISCUSSION .

Under clear skies and single digit dewpoints temperatures are still hovering around 10 to 15 degrees courtesy of an elevated surface pressure gradient which has maintained just enough boundary layer mixing to keep temps from bottoming out. Mid-level warm advection is well underway with the departure of yesterday's thermal trough and will continue through the day, particularly as WSW flow aloft increases in response to deep low pressure pivoting across Hudson Bay. Uninhibited insolation will aid diurnal boundary layer growth allowing temperatures to climb into the low 30s by late afternoon as 850mb temps begin a slow ascent toward 0C by the end of the first period. As sustained winds increase toward 15-20kts, mechanical overturning will ensure periods of efficient downward momentum transport through the peak heating period. Primary change to the forecast for today was to increase wind gusts toward 30 kts north of I-69 beneath the mid-level wind max - also a typical setup for overachieving in the Saginaw area with downsloping southwest flow.

Expansive surface high then gradually modifies as it translates off the southeast coast through the weekend. Fairly static w/wsw mid- level flow regime will maintain steady transport of moderate air from the High Plains into Southeast Michigan. No weather this weekend as highs climb through the low 40s on Saturday and upper 40s on Sunday under mostly sunny skies both days.

Global model consensus holds firm on a transition to a cooler/more active period beginning on Monday as the closed low currently off the California coast is kicked out of the southwest US by the digging northern stream. Resident dry air will impede northward progress of precipitation on Monday which, if there is any, will be rain given the lack of access to cold air. Developing northeast flow at the surface on Monday night then precedes longwave trough amplification over the Great Lakes/Northeast during midweek.

MARINE .

Southwest wind will become strong over the central axis of Lake Huron today as high pressure settles over the central US. With cold air already in place, southwest flow will be sufficiently unstable to generate gusts to gales within the favored southwest fetch zones over the open waters. Increased ice cover in Saginaw Bay will limit gust potential there, particularly for Inner Bay. Accompanying small craft advisories are in effect for Outer bay and the tip of the Thumb. Wind and waves diminish overnight into early Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ362- 363.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . JVC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi81 min SW 20 G 24 20°F 1029.8 hPa (-0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi41 min SW 21 G 26 20°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW12
G17
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G16
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W6
G13
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G9
W7
G11
SW8
SW5
SW5
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G8
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G11
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W8
G12
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G18
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G16
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G20
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W9
G13
W11
G16
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G16
W13
G19
SW10
G15
W8
G13
SW7
G11
SW6
SW4
W6
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G10
NW8
G11
NW7
NW5
G9
NW8
G14
NW7
G12
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G10
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G12
W9
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G10
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G14
NW8
G13
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G17
NW13
G17
2 days
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W18
G25
W13
G19
W12
G20
W17
G22
W12
G20
W11
G17
W13
G17
W8
G14
W6
G11
W6
G10
W11
G14
W7
G13
W10
G13
W10
G13
W8
G11
W9
G14
NW15
G21
NW12
G18
W10
G15
W10
G15
W8
G12
W9
G13
W11
G18
W10
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi46 minWSW 13 G 2010.00 miFair27°F12°F54%1031.5 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi28 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair25°F10°F55%1032.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi46 minSW 12 G 1710.00 miFair24°F12°F61%1030.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW8NW7
G14
W6NW5NW6W8W7SW5SW5SW4W8W9SW7SW8SW7SW7SW7SW8SW8SW7SW9SW8SW11
G18
1 day agoW10W11
G15
W14
G18
W13
G19
SW13
G19
W14
G17
SW11
G14
W10W10W8W7W10NW9NW10----W5W7W8W7W7NW6NW10NW10
2 days agoW21
G31
W17
G30
W21
G28
W20
G26
W17
G25
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G26
W17
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W14W7SW8W10W17W14
G19
SW6W8
G14
W14NW13NW15
G20
NW12
G20
W9W9W9W11W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.