Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:51PM Friday August 7, 2020 8:57 PM EDT (00:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 403 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202008080900;;087577 FZUS53 KDTX 072003 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 403 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-080900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 072307 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 707 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

AVIATION.

High pressure and the associated dry and stable air mass in place over SE Michigan will persist into tomorrow, promoting mainly clear skies and calm/very light winds. Weak southwest return flow around the high in the afternoon hours will begin to spread in some mid clouds in during the evening hours, otherwise it looks like diurnal CU will even struggle to develop during the day.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

DISCUSSION .

A generally dry and stable environment remains entrenched locally over the next 24 hours, held firm as shortwave ridging works across lingering surface high pressure. Brief window yet this afternoon for a few showers to manifest along localized convergence zones as lake breeze boundaries migrate inland. Recent radar notes a couple showers now over the thumb region. Otherwise, a clear sky and limited gradient will again present respectable radiational cooling potential for some locations tonight. A similar profile offered a larger range in lows in recent nights, so will again broaden the low temperature distribution - coldest rural locations again upper 40s/lower 50s while parts of metro Detroit remain near 60. Presence of an elevated upper height field within a gradually veering/southwest low level gradient then translates into a modest warming trend Saturday. Highs a shade above average - generally mid 80s.

Lower amplitude westerly flow will then govern conditions during the later half of the weekend. Weak perturbations working through the flow will draw the reservoir of deeper moisture currently elongated across the plains eastward with time. Initial period of mid level warm/moist advection still projected to arrive Saturday night and early Sunday, possibly accompanied by some form of shortwave energy and/or remnant MCV. The gradually moistening and destabilizing mid level profile will provide a low chance for elevated convective development during this window, although confidence in development remains low as the greater advection may tend to align more southwest to northeast from WI/IL into northern lower MI. Higher probability exists across the Saginaw valley and thumb.

Prevailing low level southwest flow will encourage greater boundary layer warm/moist air advection throughout Sunday. This will net late day heat index values near 90. Standard diurnal boundary layer destabilization will exist, but definitively capped by a warm mid level profile. Forcing field during peak heating remains somewhat nebulous, owing to uncertainty in defining the presence and strength of aforementioned shortwave energy. Greater potential of diurnal convective development seemingly exists with northward extent, given closer proximity to the higher theta-e content and a weaker capping inversion. Outgoing forecast will simply maintain a low end chance mention.

Prolonged advective process within southwest flow will establish a very moist low level profile for Monday - dewpoints lifting into the lower 70s. Still looking at a complex convective scenario, as the model solution space continues to present a myriad of options in terms of timing, coverage and strength sensitive to behavior of yet defined shortwave energy and/or remnant nocturnal convective activity spilling downstream. This could mean multiple rounds of lower end convective activity as early day forcing engages this moist and gradually destabilizing profile . or a more robust response should the trailing cold front timed for the evening period encounters a more unstable, less worked over thermodynamic profile. The latter scenario will lends greater potential for highs to push 90 degrees in spots, yielding heat indices of lower to middle 90s.

MARINE .

Broad high pressure stretched across the central Great Lakes will continue to promote dry weather and favorable boating conditions through at least the first half of the weekend with light waves and light south to southwesterly flow. The high pressure influence will begin to weaken late Saturday into Saturday night as an increasingly warm and humid airmass lifts northward across the region and an upper-level disturbance approaches from the upper Midwest. This feature, and accompanying developing warm front, will promote an increasing potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, especially Sunday night and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SF DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi57 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 78°F 1020 hPa (-0.3)
45163 32 mi37 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 77°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi77 min E 1.9 G 1.9 75°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi77 min Calm G 1.9 72°F 1021 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair75°F59°F57%1021 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi64 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F52°F42%1020.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair77°F60°F56%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE3E4CalmS4S3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmNW3W3W4W3W3W4CalmW3W5W5W4SW7SW8
G16
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W8NW9NW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.