Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:07AM||Sunset 8:11PM||Friday August 14, 2020 12:33 PM CDT (17:33 UTC)||Moonrise 12:17AM||Moonset 4:00PM||Illumination 18%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yuba, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KARX 141155 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 655 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Early morning radar shows a line of storms steadily moving east/southeast across Central and Northern Minnesota. Convection- allowing models almost universally diminish these before they reach our area, as moisture transport and instability trail off quickly with southeastward extent. The NMM suggests this line could perhaps last long enough to provide a couple of showers to southeastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin this morning, but have kept things dry for now. Debris clouds from this convection may provide morning cloud cover, but things should become sunnier by afternoon and allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s. If cloud cover is a little more extensive all day, though, this may be a few degrees too high. Dewpoints should approach the low 70s across southeast MN/northeast Iowa, making for a warm and humid August afternoon.
Attention then turns to a cold front progged to move through overnight into Saturday morning which could bring some strong to perhaps severe storms to parts of the area. Guidance suggests 0-6 km bulk shear along and ahead of this front will be rather marginal for severe storms at less than 30 kts, but warm/most airmass points to plenty of instability by late afternoon. Instability begins to decrease after sunset, however, so the question is how much will remain once the front arrives. Short range guidance has arrival time of the front around 01Z-03Z in southeastern MN, and there could be a large difference in instability between those arrival times. 14.00Z HREF probabilities depict this dilemma well, with the probability of boundary layer CAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg over southeast MN/northeast Iowa at around 80-100% at 01Z, trailing off rapidly to just 20-45% by 03Z and virtually nothing by 05Z. Short-range model reflectivity and 14.00Z SPC HREF 4 hour max 2-5 km updraft helicity show downward trends as storms reach the area, which may be a reflection of the decreasing instability.
So what does all of this mean? Potential is there for strong to perhaps severe storms mainly west of the Mississippi River tonight, with an earlier arrival time being more favorable for severe weather and a later arrival time being less favorable. If there is enough instability, linear storm mode early on would support a damaging wind risk, with steep mid-level lapse rates also sufficient for large hail. Very moist airmass with PWATs exceeding 1.50 inches and warm cloud depths around 4000 meters also support a locally heavy rainfall threat, although the progressive nature of the front should help limit this.
LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
As the front progresses eastward and encounters a more stable environment, showers and storms are expected to decrease in intensity and coverage as they move across the rest of the area, exiting by mid morning Saturday. With frontal passage, highs should be much cooler Saturday, only reaching the mid to upper 70s.
Cooler and less humid northwest flow then continues into the first half of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. There is a shortwave and weak front Sunday which could potentially produce a few showers across mainly north-central Wisconsin, but otherwise precipitation chances seem rather low until mid to late next week when some stronger waves move through the northwest flow.
AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Some patchy MVFR ceilings may develop early this morning with the moist southeast low level flow. KFKA did report a ceiling at 11Z. For now will mention it only at KRST early this morning. Otherwise . look for patchy mid or high cloud due to the weakening convection to the north today. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over Minnesota and move into the TAF sites this evening. Will include shra and vcts 02-07Z. South winds 10-15kts with gust to 20kts at KRST will shift to the northwest behind the cold front.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.
SHORT TERM . Lee LONG TERM . Lee AVIATION . Zapotocny
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Viroqua Municipal Airport, WI||25 mi||39 min||SSE 7||10.00 mi||Fair||79°F||68°F||69%||1017.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KY51
Wind History from Y51 (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SE||SE||SE||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||SE|
|2 days ago||Calm||NW||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||S||S||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE|
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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