Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Yuba, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:07PM Monday September 20, 2021 1:04 AM CDT (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 5:08AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yuba, WI
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location: 43.58, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 200458 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Focus is on thunderstorm potential on Monday.

Breezy southerly flow will keep temps quite mild overnight tonight with lows only in the 60s to near 70 in spots. Attention then turns to an approaching cold front associated with a mid-level trough crossing the northern plains on Monday. Guidance indicates possible stratus development Monday morning ahead of it with continued low- level moisture transport.

Lift with the shortwave trough along with strong frontal forcing leads to high confidence that an area of showers and storms will move from west to east by Monday afternoon. The system will be progressive, but rain amounts in the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range are forecast with local amounts in excess of 2 inches possible given the anomalous moisture/pwats to 1.75 inches along the front.

As for severe weather potential, instability will be a limiting factor, as soundings generally show a skinny CAPE profile with SBCAPE up to 1000 to 1500 J/kg and fairly weak low to mid-level lapse rates. This may serve to limit peak updraft intensity. The CAPE is forecast to be higher farther south into IA with the RAP showing only a narrow instability axis to the north ahead of the front. The stronger mid-level flow/deep shear largely still is forecast to lag the front/instability axis, but 30-40 kts of bulk shear in the 0-3 km layer with a sizable amount of bulk shear in the 0-1 km layer along the front would favor organized, stronger convection if updrafts are intense enough. Timing of the front looks favorable to take advantage of the diurnal max in instability, but significant destabilization is uncertain given impacts from possible low cloud development Monday morning and the rather weak lapse rates. Overall, given the set-up, expect mainly showers and sub- severe storms, but isolated severe storms are possible later in the afternoon. However, if greater destabilization can be realized, the severe weather risk could increase. The primary threat would be strong winds. Secondary threats include small hail, and a conditional low risk of a tornado given the 0-3 km shear profiles.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

The trend has been to move the showers and thunderstorms out earlier, thus will continue highest chance of precipitation during the evening. A marginal threat for severe storms continues into the early evening due to the limited instability available with sufficient shear in the 0-3km and 0-6km layers. The area should be able to handle the rainfall as we are about 1 to 2 inches below normal for the month. The high rainfall rates on an 1 inch an hour could cause impacts to travel. Showers and isolated thunderstorms exit the eastern part of the forecast area after 06Z.

By 12Z Tuesday, the 500mb trough has dragged the cold front through the forecast area. The main area of precipitation has exited the region, however lagging trough energy lingers into the afternoon. Some hint of shower re-development. The forecast soundings have a small window where convective temperatures are reached, but this shuts off quickly. With moisture much more limited (precipitable water less than 0.5") locally, showers should be spotty and mainly north of I90. Northwest winds will usher in cooler temperatures, thus temperatures that start out in the 50s will only make it to the 60s for highs. Surface high pressure builds in overnight and will need to assess fog potential. Surface winds are light and 850mb winds are still in the 10 to 20 mph range. In addition, cold areas/bogs should dip into the 30s Wednesday and Thursday morning with local frost/freeze conditions possible. Temperatures in the 60s into the 70s for highs Wednesday through Friday. Friday, a cold front will push through. It may not be completely dry, however much of the area should remain dry. 850mb temperatures drop, however ahead of the front, mixing may support temperatures 3 to 7 degrees warmer than what is currently forecast which is in the 10th percentile of NBM. Should the front speed up, the temps would work out, but if slower, may be too cool. We see less agreement for Saturday/Sunday as the GFS has us under the influence of the eastern side of the ridge and the EC has us cooler with the trough. The current NBM is on the side of the warmer temps. The EPS trend has had a 20 degree spread over the last week, so it's been jumping around a lot too. Will see how the most recent trends go. They can agree that is will be a fairly dry period at RST/LSE into the weekend with spotty precip chances more in the Taylor/Clark areas.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

MVFR to IFR stratus spreads northward between 09-14Z and encompasses much of the area by sunrise. These low clouds lift through the late morning and scatter out in the afternoon. An approaching cold front moving from west to east brings widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms to the entire area between 18-06Z. Winds remain from the south through at least midday Monday before veering to the northwest behind the aforementioned cold front. Light winds tonight increase to 10-20G30kts ahead of and behind the front.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.

SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . Zapotocny AVIATION . Skow


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Viroqua Municipal Airport, WI25 mi70 minS 610.00 miFair72°F65°F81%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KY51

Wind History from Y51 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9SE9SE8SE6SE5SE7SE8S9S9S8S7S9
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1 day agoN5NE3NE5E4E3E3E3E4E6E7SE8SE8SE3SE6E5SE5SE6SE4E4SE6SE8SE8SE7SE8
2 days agoS10
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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