Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yuba, WI
May 6, 2024 10:35 AM CDT (15:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:50 AM Moonset 5:46 PM |
FXUS63 KARX 061139 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 639 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Sunny Today, Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight
- Active pattern continues with additional thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday night.
- Cooler Weekend, Potential Shower or Two
DISCUSSION
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Today: Sunny, Breezy West of the Mississippi
Weak surface high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes this morning slowly shifts into southeastern Ontario through the day as a low pressure system along the Front Range lifts north into the Dakotas.
Southeasterly winds will increase with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range west of the river by this afternoon. Daytime highs climb to near 70 and into the mid 70s for the warmer locations. Look for clouds to be on the increase from the west in the evening as influence from the Dakotas low pressure system moves overhead.
Tonight through Wednesday: Showers and Thunderstorms
The low pressure system over the Dakotas and its negative tilted trough moves across the region tonight. The best forcing moves into our local region around midnight or so, well after diabatic heating has ended. MUCAPE values on the order of 100-300 J/kg won't be enough energy to bring much of a threat across our area, but CAMs are in great agreement for a line of showers and thunderstorms to move from WSW to ENE overhead tonight.
On Tuesday, early morning showers and thunderstorms lift north as the low pressure system from the Dakotas elongates from the northern Rockies into the Upper Great Lakes. Better clearing is expected across our area on Tuesday afternoon with diurnal heating expected.
At the same time, the low pressure system pivots and mid-level lapse rates increase from 6C/km to closer to 8-8.5C/km with CAPE increasing to around 500-700J/kg. SPC has introduced a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) across our region with this increase instability. Marginal hail appears to be the primary threat as the better shear exits to the north and east before better instability begins.
Wednesday Night into Thursday: Another Round of Thunderstorms
As the remnant sfc low and longwave trough from the Dakotas dives south Wednesday it brings upper-level divergence and fgen forcing across southern MN and northern IA. An inverted trough and Fgen forcing along 850 to 600mb coupled with a mid-level low shifting over IA and a skinny CAPE profile will bring the potential for more showers and thunderstorms and potentially a localized heavy rain threat. This threat will diminish overnight Wednesday as colder air moves in behind the exiting trough.
Into the weekend: Cooler Air, Some Showers
Long wave trough drops south from Canada across the Upper Midwest into the weekend bringing temps into the low 60s with scattered showers (20 to 30%) as the upper level low pivots overhead. Will have to wait and see how we exit this blocky pattern during the middle of the week for more weekend specifics.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
VFR expected for much of the 06.12Z TAF period. Cloud cover increases late tonight ahead of overnight precipitation chances, eventually ushering in flight restrictions from southwest to northeast. Storm chances remain likely as the precipitation move through the forecast area into Tuesday morning. Other forecast detail will be increased winds and wind shear as low level frontal boundary tightens. Given increased surface gusts, haven't introduced LLWS for 06.12Z TAF issuance. Flight restrictions are expected towards the end of the period.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 639 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Sunny Today, Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight
- Active pattern continues with additional thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday night.
- Cooler Weekend, Potential Shower or Two
DISCUSSION
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Today: Sunny, Breezy West of the Mississippi
Weak surface high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes this morning slowly shifts into southeastern Ontario through the day as a low pressure system along the Front Range lifts north into the Dakotas.
Southeasterly winds will increase with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range west of the river by this afternoon. Daytime highs climb to near 70 and into the mid 70s for the warmer locations. Look for clouds to be on the increase from the west in the evening as influence from the Dakotas low pressure system moves overhead.
Tonight through Wednesday: Showers and Thunderstorms
The low pressure system over the Dakotas and its negative tilted trough moves across the region tonight. The best forcing moves into our local region around midnight or so, well after diabatic heating has ended. MUCAPE values on the order of 100-300 J/kg won't be enough energy to bring much of a threat across our area, but CAMs are in great agreement for a line of showers and thunderstorms to move from WSW to ENE overhead tonight.
On Tuesday, early morning showers and thunderstorms lift north as the low pressure system from the Dakotas elongates from the northern Rockies into the Upper Great Lakes. Better clearing is expected across our area on Tuesday afternoon with diurnal heating expected.
At the same time, the low pressure system pivots and mid-level lapse rates increase from 6C/km to closer to 8-8.5C/km with CAPE increasing to around 500-700J/kg. SPC has introduced a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) across our region with this increase instability. Marginal hail appears to be the primary threat as the better shear exits to the north and east before better instability begins.
Wednesday Night into Thursday: Another Round of Thunderstorms
As the remnant sfc low and longwave trough from the Dakotas dives south Wednesday it brings upper-level divergence and fgen forcing across southern MN and northern IA. An inverted trough and Fgen forcing along 850 to 600mb coupled with a mid-level low shifting over IA and a skinny CAPE profile will bring the potential for more showers and thunderstorms and potentially a localized heavy rain threat. This threat will diminish overnight Wednesday as colder air moves in behind the exiting trough.
Into the weekend: Cooler Air, Some Showers
Long wave trough drops south from Canada across the Upper Midwest into the weekend bringing temps into the low 60s with scattered showers (20 to 30%) as the upper level low pivots overhead. Will have to wait and see how we exit this blocky pattern during the middle of the week for more weekend specifics.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
VFR expected for much of the 06.12Z TAF period. Cloud cover increases late tonight ahead of overnight precipitation chances, eventually ushering in flight restrictions from southwest to northeast. Storm chances remain likely as the precipitation move through the forecast area into Tuesday morning. Other forecast detail will be increased winds and wind shear as low level frontal boundary tightens. Given increased surface gusts, haven't introduced LLWS for 06.12Z TAF issuance. Flight restrictions are expected towards the end of the period.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
La Crosse, WI,
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