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FXUS65 KBOI 022132 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 232 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Monday night...A winter storm warning remains in effect for the Boise and West Central Mountains of Idaho where periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue tonight through Sunday. However, snow levels will rise to around 6000 feet by Sunday afternoon, with snow expected to change to rain in Cascade, Donnelly and McCall on Sunday. Precipitation will start to taper off on Monday and the snow level will continue to rise up to around 7000 feet by Monday afternoon as warmer air moves into the area. Meanwhile, light to occasionally moderate rain will fall across the lower elevations of southern Idaho and across portions of southwestern Oregon tonight and on Sunday. Windy conditions will continue across open areas of southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon this evening becoming lighter after midnight and on Sunday.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday
Deterministic models follow along with the ensemble clusters by indicating a progressive weather pattern through the extended period. Initially, an upper ridge is over the region Tuesday but the next upper trough slides into the PacNW and into the forecast area Thursday. Snow levels expected to lower from 9000 feet Tuesday to 4000-5000 feet Thursday evening.
Models continue to agree on yet another trough pushing into the forecast area Friday morning lowering snow to around 3000 feet.
Mountains should see an additional several inches of snow through the extended period.

AVIATION
MVFR/IFR and local LIFR due to widespread rain and snow/low ceilings. Mountains obscured. Snow levels above 6000 feet by 03/15z south of a KBKE-KTWF line and over 6000 feet across entire forecast area aft 03/21z. Areas of LLWS in excess of 30 kt south of a line from KBNO-KEUL-KTWF through 03/03z. Potentially developing once again across SE Oregon aft 03/15z.

Surface winds: SW-SE 10-20 kt, except W-SW 20-30 kt with gusts 35-50 kt in E Oregon and S of Snake River. Wind shifting W-NW late this afternoon across KBKE, KBOI around 03/00z and KTWF region around 03/03-6z. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: W-NW 40-70 kt.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday IDZ011-013-028.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening IDZ015-016-029-030.
OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ this evening ORZ061-063.

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