Friday, November22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:49PM Friday November 22, 2019 3:11 PM EST (20:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:14AMMoonset 2:58PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 354 Am Est Fri Nov 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..South winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy.
Monday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely Tuesday night.
LOZ030 Expires:201911221600;;644372 FZUS51 KBUF 220854 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 354 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-221600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 221816 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 116 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

SYNOPSIS. Decreasing wind and some lingering rain and snow showers will persist downstream from the Great Lakes through night. High pressure centered over the central plains will then drift by to our south through Saturday. This will allow fair weather and lighter winds to return to start the weekend. The second half of the weekend could include a little rain and or wet snow . as a storm system will pass well to our south.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Cyclonic flow in the wake of a frontal passage today has continued to allow for some gusty wind, however as higher momentum off the deck continues to peel east of the area, the gusts have progressively decreased through the day. Winds have been staying up a bit longer over Lake Ontario due to less in the way of surface layer friction, however even here, wind gusts will decrease through the afternoon.

In the cyclonic flow, cold advection off the deck is quickly dropping 850 mb temperatures toward -8 to -10C and cooling the boundary layer enough that shower activity in the post-frontal air mass is largely snow shower activity. That said, surface observations fail to depress under 31F anywhere at this point, and area cams don't reveal anywhere in the organized bands that we have had for a short time that has received more than a dusting of snow. Those organized bands are already becoming much more multi-cellular at this hour, so it would seem the accumulation expectations in the Southern Tier east of Lake Erie are fairly minimal at this time. Additionally, in the North Country, cold air is slower to arrive, and downstream bands haven't even developed yet. This will occur in short order, however even here, the window for organized banding is short before flow starts to veer, so accumulations should be limited to a wet inch away from the lake.

High pressure drifts by quickly tonight into Saturday, which will take the brief cold chunk east of the area on Saturday. This will end instability off the lakes, and an uptick at 850 mb combined with turning flow to the south should allow temperatures to recover nicely on Saturday with a decent amount of sunshine for many areas.

High cloudiness will start to increase from the southwest on Saturday afternoon as the next system start to approach the area for the short term period.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Over the past couple of model runs . the various guidance packages have (finally) come into better agreement on the handling of the system for the Saturday night-Sunday period . with most now supporting notably less (or even no) phasing between a southern stream wave advancing out of the Ohio Valley . and a corresponding northern stream shortwave passing across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario Province. The end result of this is a more suppressed and weaker southern stream system that tracks eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states Saturday night . before becoming better organized as it pushes eastward and tracks offshore of the southern New England coast on Sunday As such. the guidance envelope has narrowed considerably over the last 12 hours . with the NAM/GFS/ ECMWF now all in pretty good agreement on the above scenario and with each other . and only the Canadian GEM now a slightly more phased/ more northerly outlier . which admittedly seems more than a little odd given its steadfast insistence on a more southerly/suppressed system the past couple of nights.

Given the above trends . would expect the precipitation shield from this system to also be more suppressed and consequently lighter and shorter-lived over our region . with the bulk of this coming between Saturday night and early Sunday and mainly confined to the Southern Tier and interior portions of the Finger Lakes/North Country . where a range of chance PoPs (greatest across Allegany County) remains in play. As for precipitation type . with the more southerly track to the system there now appears to be much less (if any) potential for the warm layer aloft that had been depicted by some of the guidance at this time last night . and given this and very marginal temperature profiles it now appears as if a simple rain/wet snow mix will be the most likely outcome. Owing to the marginal temperature profiles and the expected light nature of the precipitation . any snowfall accumulations out of this system will likely remain under an inch and confined to the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and interior portions of the Finger Lakes.

By Sunday afternoon this system will have departed off to our east . with flat surface-based ridging over the Ohio Valley then ridging northeastward across our region through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night. With temperatures aloft generally appearing to be too warm to support a true lake response through this time frame . have cut back substantially on precipitation chances for Sunday afternoon and night . with any very spotty light precip that might occur more due to a combination of upsloping and contributions of lake moisture than true lake effect processes Otherwise. the last half of this period should be mainly dry and uneventful under the building surface ridge.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Monday and Tuesday longwave troughing will begin to reload over the Northern Plains . with an initial surface wave riding northeastward along its eastern flank and tracking from Lake Superior to James Bay . then onward into northern Quebec Province. With this system tracking by so far to our northwest it will be unlikely to bring any precipitation into our region . with dry weather and warming temperatures therefore prevailing given both this and the overall warm advection pattern that will be in place. With respect to temperatures . expect daytime highs to climb well into the 40s in many areas on Monday and then into the upper 40s and lower 50s on Tuesday . which will probably turn out to be the warmest day of the period.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the burgeoning upper level trough will push eastward across the Great Lakes. Since yesterday the GFS/GEM/ ECMWF have all come around to the idea of developing another (and potentially significant) cutter-type system . then tracking this feature northeastward across the Central Great Lakes and Southern Ontario during this time frame. Were this scenario to actually play out (which is still far from a certainty given the distant time frame and previous model disagreement) . we could be in line for another round of widespread rain showers followed by a strong to potentially high wind event Tuesday night into Wednesday . a potential that we will need to closely monitor over the coming days.

Following this potentially significant system . a west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow of colder air will result in temperatures falling back to a bit below average . and could also support some lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes from later Wednesday on through Thanksgiving Day This said. the exact timing . placement . and amounts from these are extremely difficult to pinpoint this far out . and as such have just continued to cover these with some chance PoPs.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. For the 18Z TAFS, behind a surface low that is now into southern Quebec, a cold west-northwest flow will continue across the Eastern Great Lakes . with gusts 25 to 30 knots through 00Z. Around 00Z, a relaxing pressure gradient and lowering mixing heights will end the stronger gusts, and lighter winds will back slightly through the night.

There will be plenty of strato-cumulus through the first half of the period, with this deck MVFR across higher terrain, and low VFR across the lower terrain. These clouds will diminish through the evening . expanding the VFR flight conditions. Tomorrow the backing winds will lift a narrow band of lake effect clouds northward . with these clouds possibly bringing a few hours of MVFR ceiling heights to the east and then northeast of the Great Lakes.

Outlook .

Saturday afternoon and Sunday . Mainly VFR. Monday and Tuesday . VFR. Tuesday night and Wednesday . MVFR with rain showers likely and possible gusty winds/LLWS.

MARINE. A cold front has moved east of the lakes today. This has allowed for decreasingly gusty winds in its wake. Gales still remain over eastern Lake Ontario, while speeds have come down below that threshold elsewhere. These speeds will continue to decline tonight as even SCAs start to wind down.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The Lake Erie water level reached its peak earlier this morning when winds peaked at gale force. The level of the lake has since dropped off . so the lake shore flood warning for Lake Erie has been discontinued.

For Lake Ontario, the strongest winds will occur this morning before slowly diminishing later in the afternoon and evening. The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore winds, and high wave action will result in lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion on the east half of the lake today.

It should be noted that while flooding may occur, we do not anticipate impacts as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flood event. Sustained winds were much stronger on both lakes in that event.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004>007. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006-007. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . Fries SHORT TERM . JJR LONG TERM . Hitchcock/JJR AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Fries TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . RSH/Hitchcock/Apffel/JJR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi71 min NW 27 G 32 38°F 1013.9 hPa (+2.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi59 min 37°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi18 minNW 1510.00 miOvercast35°F24°F64%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6W4SW4SW6SW5W5W3W3S3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE4SE4S7S11S11S10S9S10S11
2 days agoNE3NE4CalmE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN3W3CalmCalmCalmW3W3W5NW5W5W6W4W5W4W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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