Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Youngs, NY
November 5, 2024 1:41 PM EST (18:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:58 AM Sunset 5:05 PM Moonrise 11:25 AM Moonset 7:32 PM |
LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 327 Am Est Tue Nov 5 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mostly Sunny.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly cloudy.
Thursday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Becoming mainly clear.
Friday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Mainly clear.
Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers Saturday night.
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 051757 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1257 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Near record warmth this afternoon will end Wednesday as a cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, producing a few showers. A few leftover isolated showers may last into Wednesday night and early Thursday, then dry weather will return for the rest of the week.
Temperatures later this week will be much cooler than today, but still a little above average for early November. The next chance of rain will arrive Sunday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Satellite imagery showing abundant sunshine across most of the region this afternoon, with an area of high cirrus crossing Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Sunshine will continue for the rest of the day, with near record high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on the lake plains. SSW winds will continue to gust 15-25 mph areawide, and up to 35 mph locally across the Niagara Frontier where stronger winds aloft are "downsloping" off the stable lake dome over Lake Erie.
An elongated area of low pressure over the central and upper Great Lakes tonight will race east across Quebec Wednesday, with a trailing weak cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes Wednesday morning. The stronger synoptic scale forcing in the form of height falls and DPVA, along with strong upper level jet dynamics will remain well north and west of the area, leaving a weakly forced low level boundary crossing our region. The weak forcing will keep rainfall amounts light, with many areas only seeing 0.10" or less, and up to 0.25" across higher terrain with some help from upslope.
The frontal timing continues to trend a little slower, with rain not arriving in Western NY until very late tonight or early Wednesday morning, then moving quickly east across the rest of the area Wednesday morning. Most of the rain will be in and out during the morning hours, with just a few leftover showers possible in the afternoon from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region. The lake plains will start to see some partial clearing later in the afternoon.
Winds will back off temporarily through the first half of tonight, then increase again late tonight through Wednesday with the cold frontal passage. Expect gusts of 15-25 mph areawide, and locally up to 35+ mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier, peaking early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, staying in the upper 60s on the lake plains and low 60s across inland areas most of the time. Cold advection is weak behind the cold front Wednesday, so still expect highs in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, and lower 70s from the Genesee Valley to Central NY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Showers may linger east and southeast of Lake Ontario into Thursday as a secondary boundary works through the region. With high pressure building into the region, any showers that do track into the area should be mainly light.
High pressure and a ridge will build into the region with dry conditions from later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
Temperatures will cool by Thursday behind the passing cold front, but still remain above normal with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
On Friday the axis of the surface ridge will temporarily settle off to our southwest...while a northern stream mid-level trough drops southeastward across Ontario/Quebec and pivots its attendant weak cold front across our region. The medium range guidance packages continue to struggle greatly with the strength of the trough...the degree of moisture return along the cold front
and the degree of cooling behind it
and consequently also the related shower potential across our eastern zones Friday and then east/southeast of Lake Ontario Friday night.
Given this and our rather dry pattern of late...will keep any PoPs for the first 24 hours of the period confined to the slight chance range for now per existing continuity. Following the passage of these features...the surface ridge will then build back directly overhead on Saturday...then will drift east into New England Saturday night while providing us with a dry and uneventful first half of the weekend. Otherwise temps will continue to average a bit above normal...albeit with some modest cooling that will result in highs pulling back a bit from the 55-60 range Friday to the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday.
After that another mid-level trough and surface low still looks to eject northeastward from the Plains States and across Ontario/Quebec Sunday into Monday...with the guidance suite rather unsurprisingly continuing to have trouble resolving its exact track/timing and strength this far out in advance. While this system should bring us our next general opportunity for some showers...have aimed under blended PoPs in the forecast for now given the resulting forecast uncertainties...the distant time frame...and our rather dry pattern of late. Otherwise this system should also bring another uptick in temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early next week...though the exact degree of this remains to be seen.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mainly clear skies and VFR will prevail through the first half of tonight with nothing more than some passing areas of high cirrus. A cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday, bringing thickening and lowering clouds along with a period of light rain showers. Areas of MVFR CIGS will develop Wednesday morning, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. CIGS will improve to mainly VFR during the afternoon across lower elevations, and most of the showers will come to an end as the cold front exits the area. A few leftover spotty showers, and some MVFR CIGS, will remain possible through the afternoon across higher terrain.
A 45+ knot low level jet will remain overhead through early Wednesday morning. This will continue to produce gusts in the 20-30 knot range this afternoon, especially northeast of the lakes. The surface winds will diminish during the first half of tonight, resulting in low level wind shear. Surface gusts will increase again late tonight just ahead of the cold front, ending the low level wind shear. Expect gusts of 15-25 knots areawide late tonight through Wednesday, and locally 30+ knots across Western NY northeast of Lake Erie, peaking around 12Z Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a few isolated showers possible.
Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...MVFR with showers likely.
MARINE
An elongated area of low pressure will cross the upper Great Lakes tonight before racing ENE across Quebec Wednesday. A persistent 45+ knot low level jet will remain in place across the lower Great Lakes ahead of this system, supporting moderate SSW winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions for Lake Erie and portions of Lake Ontario.
A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, with a period of elevated southwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions on all of Lake Erie and most of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds will return Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
CLIMATE
Another surge of near record warmth will move into the eastern Great Lakes today. For reference, here are the record high temperatures for November 5th. All of the records are from just two years ago in 2022.
Buffalo...
Record High.......79 in 2022 Record Warm Low...61 in 2022
Rochester...
Record High.......77 in 2022 Record Warm Low...62 in 2022
Watertown...
Record High.......77 in 2022 Record Warm Low...63 in 2022
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1257 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Near record warmth this afternoon will end Wednesday as a cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, producing a few showers. A few leftover isolated showers may last into Wednesday night and early Thursday, then dry weather will return for the rest of the week.
Temperatures later this week will be much cooler than today, but still a little above average for early November. The next chance of rain will arrive Sunday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Satellite imagery showing abundant sunshine across most of the region this afternoon, with an area of high cirrus crossing Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Sunshine will continue for the rest of the day, with near record high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on the lake plains. SSW winds will continue to gust 15-25 mph areawide, and up to 35 mph locally across the Niagara Frontier where stronger winds aloft are "downsloping" off the stable lake dome over Lake Erie.
An elongated area of low pressure over the central and upper Great Lakes tonight will race east across Quebec Wednesday, with a trailing weak cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes Wednesday morning. The stronger synoptic scale forcing in the form of height falls and DPVA, along with strong upper level jet dynamics will remain well north and west of the area, leaving a weakly forced low level boundary crossing our region. The weak forcing will keep rainfall amounts light, with many areas only seeing 0.10" or less, and up to 0.25" across higher terrain with some help from upslope.
The frontal timing continues to trend a little slower, with rain not arriving in Western NY until very late tonight or early Wednesday morning, then moving quickly east across the rest of the area Wednesday morning. Most of the rain will be in and out during the morning hours, with just a few leftover showers possible in the afternoon from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region. The lake plains will start to see some partial clearing later in the afternoon.
Winds will back off temporarily through the first half of tonight, then increase again late tonight through Wednesday with the cold frontal passage. Expect gusts of 15-25 mph areawide, and locally up to 35+ mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier, peaking early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, staying in the upper 60s on the lake plains and low 60s across inland areas most of the time. Cold advection is weak behind the cold front Wednesday, so still expect highs in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, and lower 70s from the Genesee Valley to Central NY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Showers may linger east and southeast of Lake Ontario into Thursday as a secondary boundary works through the region. With high pressure building into the region, any showers that do track into the area should be mainly light.
High pressure and a ridge will build into the region with dry conditions from later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
Temperatures will cool by Thursday behind the passing cold front, but still remain above normal with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
On Friday the axis of the surface ridge will temporarily settle off to our southwest...while a northern stream mid-level trough drops southeastward across Ontario/Quebec and pivots its attendant weak cold front across our region. The medium range guidance packages continue to struggle greatly with the strength of the trough...the degree of moisture return along the cold front
and the degree of cooling behind it
and consequently also the related shower potential across our eastern zones Friday and then east/southeast of Lake Ontario Friday night.
Given this and our rather dry pattern of late...will keep any PoPs for the first 24 hours of the period confined to the slight chance range for now per existing continuity. Following the passage of these features...the surface ridge will then build back directly overhead on Saturday...then will drift east into New England Saturday night while providing us with a dry and uneventful first half of the weekend. Otherwise temps will continue to average a bit above normal...albeit with some modest cooling that will result in highs pulling back a bit from the 55-60 range Friday to the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday.
After that another mid-level trough and surface low still looks to eject northeastward from the Plains States and across Ontario/Quebec Sunday into Monday...with the guidance suite rather unsurprisingly continuing to have trouble resolving its exact track/timing and strength this far out in advance. While this system should bring us our next general opportunity for some showers...have aimed under blended PoPs in the forecast for now given the resulting forecast uncertainties...the distant time frame...and our rather dry pattern of late. Otherwise this system should also bring another uptick in temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early next week...though the exact degree of this remains to be seen.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mainly clear skies and VFR will prevail through the first half of tonight with nothing more than some passing areas of high cirrus. A cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday, bringing thickening and lowering clouds along with a period of light rain showers. Areas of MVFR CIGS will develop Wednesday morning, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. CIGS will improve to mainly VFR during the afternoon across lower elevations, and most of the showers will come to an end as the cold front exits the area. A few leftover spotty showers, and some MVFR CIGS, will remain possible through the afternoon across higher terrain.
A 45+ knot low level jet will remain overhead through early Wednesday morning. This will continue to produce gusts in the 20-30 knot range this afternoon, especially northeast of the lakes. The surface winds will diminish during the first half of tonight, resulting in low level wind shear. Surface gusts will increase again late tonight just ahead of the cold front, ending the low level wind shear. Expect gusts of 15-25 knots areawide late tonight through Wednesday, and locally 30+ knots across Western NY northeast of Lake Erie, peaking around 12Z Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a few isolated showers possible.
Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...MVFR with showers likely.
MARINE
An elongated area of low pressure will cross the upper Great Lakes tonight before racing ENE across Quebec Wednesday. A persistent 45+ knot low level jet will remain in place across the lower Great Lakes ahead of this system, supporting moderate SSW winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions for Lake Erie and portions of Lake Ontario.
A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, with a period of elevated southwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions on all of Lake Erie and most of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds will return Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
CLIMATE
Another surge of near record warmth will move into the eastern Great Lakes today. For reference, here are the record high temperatures for November 5th. All of the records are from just two years ago in 2022.
Buffalo...
Record High.......79 in 2022 Record Warm Low...61 in 2022
Rochester...
Record High.......77 in 2022 Record Warm Low...62 in 2022
Watertown...
Record High.......77 in 2022 Record Warm Low...63 in 2022
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 25 mi | 41 min | SW 23G | 68°F | 51°F | 2 ft | 29.88 | |
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax | 28 mi | 41 min | SW 12G | 60°F | 52°F | 2 ft | 29.89 | |
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 32 mi | 41 min | SSW 17G | 76°F | 29.91 | |||
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 43 mi | 41 min | SW 17G | 76°F | 29.91 | |||
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 44 mi | 53 min | 29.93 |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes
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