Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 2:46 AM EST (07:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:00AMMoonset 2:20PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 351 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..East winds 10 knots or less. Snow showers likely Friday night.
Saturday..East winds around 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely Saturday night.
LOZ030 Expires:202001210415;;256694 FZUS51 KBUF 202051 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 351 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-210415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 210541 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1241 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold northwest flow will continue the potential for light lake effect snow showers at times through Tuesday southeast of the lakes with minimal additional accumulation. High pressure will move into the region providing a period of quiet weather and a gradual warming trend Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure will then move into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, bringing a return to unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A weak trough axis is crossing the eastern Great Lakes this evening, but is also being modulated by local land breezes as well. This boundary is helping to raise inversion heights back to around 5K feet (after only a 2.5kft inversion was observed on 00z BUF sounding this evening), and is also introducing more moisture into the boundary layer.

Lake effect clouds off Lake Ontario expanded very early this evening, and they now extend as far east as area from BGM to ALY. There is a noted connection off Georgian Bay into the clouds streaming toward N.Cayuga county. Even with upstream preconditioning though, net result has been a few flurries at best thus far. Also saw the lake effect clouds expand earlier this evening over much of western NY off Lake Erie, but again flurries is the main result under these clouds. Still could be some light snow showers rest of the night with minor accums (less than 1 inch) as inversions continue to rise some. As you can imagine temps have been challenging this evening with the variable lake cloud coverage in space and time. Portions of the Genesee valley south of ROC toward Allegany county dropped to near zero earlier this evening, but these readings are starting to recover some. By far, the best chance for persistent sub zero temps tonight will be over the North Country where skies are clear. Elsewhere, expect temps to either settle into and/or rise into the upper single digits to upper teens, depending on extent of cloud cover.

Tuesday inversion heights will slowly lower again as the weak trough departs, and weak warm advection begins aloft. This will force what limited lake effect snow is left to weaken further. Off Lake Erie, expect scattered light snow showers across the western Southern Tier in the morning to end in the afternoon. Inversion heights remain a little higher off Lake Ontario, which may allow a few snow showers to linger southeast of Lake Ontario. Boundary layer flow will back to the WSW during the afternoon, carrying any remaining snow showers towards the Tug Hill region at the east end of the lake. This may produce some very minor, less than an inch accumulations east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday afternoon.

Outside of these lake effect areas, it will remain dry tonight through Tuesday. Skies will be clear tonight away from the lake effect clouds. Increasing low level moisture will then bring a general west to east increase in cloud cover Tuesday.

Lows tonight are already falling off pretty good with many areas where skies are still clear into the single digits already. East of Lake Ontario temperatures will be colder with clear skies, less wind, and no maritime influence. Lows may drop to 5 to 10 below zero in some of the colder spots. Temps over western NY may rise some after midnight as some of the clouds upstream drop across the area.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Fast moving shortwave trough diving southeast through the NW'erly flow aloft will exit our far eastern portions of the CWA by Tuesday evening. In its wake, there may be some very light freezing drizzle through the first half of the night as moisture depletes within the dendritic growth zone. However, it's likely to be short lived and spotty in nature. With heights building aloft and surface high pressure over Tennessee and Ohio building in, look for dry weather to take hold for the second half of Tuesday night and continue through Friday. The eventual repositioning of the high just to our east over the course of the second half of the week will then encourage a slow but gradual warming trend. Southerly flow on the backside of this high will then nudge day to day highs from the low to mid 30s on Wednesday and then into the upper 30s to low 40s by Thursday and then repeat on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. After a period of quiet weather, precipitation chances will increase Friday night and on into the weekend. With that said, there has been some wild swings in the model guidance over the last 24-48 hours. where will this next system potentially track, only time will tell at this point in the forecast. One thing is for sure, wherever it does eventually settle it's likely it will not be an overly cold system with a mixture of rain/snow. Based on 12Z model consensus, ECMWF now beginning to fall in line with the GFS, there appears the above mention of a mixture of rain/snow will be likely, with some areas of light accumulating snowfall. Keep checking back for further updates as things could change again given the temperature and track uncertainty.

Sunday night, this system then exits to our east and precipitation chances decrease from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes. Weak surface high pressure then builds in for Monday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures as there is a lack of colder air on the backside of this system.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Lake effect clouds will continue for much of the night with bases higher MVFR to lower VFR (2500-3500 ft AGL). The only TAF site that is likely to be impacted by more steady snow showers overnight is KJHW off Lake Erie. The Lake Ontario lake snow should stay just north and east of KROC most of the time.

Lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie will gradually end Tuesday, although MVFR CIGS may linger east and southeast of the lake. Lake effect snow showers and MVFR CIGS southeast of Lake Ontario will move to the east end of the lake later in the afternoon as winds become WSW. Some of this may move into KART toward evening.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . Generally VFR. Saturday . MVFR/IFR possible with rain and wet snow.

MARINE. After an uptick in westerly winds during the evening conditions are settling down. Winds will further drop off with a period of quiet marine conditions expected through this morning.

Another period of moderate westerlies will develop later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, producing another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ043- 044.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi46 min NNW 6 G 8.9 26°F 1033.2 hPa (+0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi52 min 23°F 1031.5 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G36
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N12
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G38
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G41
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G35
SW31
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W21
G27

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi53 minW 710.00 miOvercast18°F12°F81%1033.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6CalmN4NW8N6NW5NW7N10N9NW6NW6W4NW3W8W8SW8SW8W9W9W8W8W8W6W7
1 day agoW16
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W19
G26
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W16W16W12NW13NW13NW13NW11N14NW14N14
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N10N6N8N12N9N8N10
2 days agoE8E11SE9E12E10E7E9SE8E7SE5SE8SE7S11S12S12
G21
S10--SW23
G33
SW23
G30
SW18W17
G34
SW13W14
G23
W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.