Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:09PM Saturday August 24, 2019 7:03 AM EDT (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 731 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Becoming mainly clear.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Monday night.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ030 Expires:201908240300;;106369 FZUS51 KBUF 232332 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 731 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-240300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241052
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
652 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across southern canada will expand across the
great lakes region over the weekend. There will be some clouds
and patchy valley fog in mornings, but otherwise this high will
provide a dry pattern which will last into next week. The next
chance of rain along with warmer weather won't return until next
Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
Surface high pressure will ridge across the great lakes region
today. It will be a cool air mass with 850 mb temperatures
around +6c and a 500 mb trough axis extending from new england
to western new york. Today will feel almost fall-like due to the
cool temperatures and low humidity. The cool air aloft will
also support lake effect clouds, which can already be seen on
ir satellite imagery this morning. The existing cloud cover is
underdone by most model guidance, but forecast soundings show a
thin layer of moisture trapped beneath an inversion which hints
that partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger for much of the
day. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The center of an expansive high pressure system will pass to our
north tonight, with this high ridging into our region. A combination
of clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall
into the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight. The coolest locations
will be across the southern tier and black river valleys, but
this radiational cooling will also result in patchy fog which
will develop late tonight.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
High pressure will remain firmly in control during this period. A
surface high will move into northern new england on Sunday and
remain pretty much stationary through Monday night. This will
provide spectacular weather, with temperatures near to slightly
above average and comfortable humidity levels with dew points in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the
mid to upper 70s, with low 70s across the higher terrain. Lows
Sunday night will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
higher terrain, with mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Increasing
southwesterly flow across western ny on Monday night will keep
temperatures a bit warmer compared to the previous night. Lows will
once again range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the higher
terrain east of lake ontario, to the upper 50s to lower 60s across
western portions of the area.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Large upper low spinning across northern ontario and hudson bay will
dominate this period. Main weather feature will be a cold front that
will cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, otherwise expect a
good deal of dry time. Temperatures will be slightly above average
Tuesday and Wednesday, along with somewhat more humid conditions as
dew points climb back into the 60s ahead of the frontal passage.

Temperatures will then fall back to around normal with lowering
humidity levels for Thursday and Friday.

The eastern edge of a warm front will become more diffuse as it
pushes northeast across western ny on Tuesday, as it pushes into a
large area of high pressure that will only begrudgingly retreat ever
so slowly off the new england coast by late Tuesday. So as this will
boost temperatures a few more degrees along with ushering in
somewhat more uncomfortable humidity levels, am not impressed with
chances for precip along the front itself as it, along with its'
supporting upper level shortwave both weaken as they push into
surface and upper level ridging. At this time, will just have a
slight chance for a shower across extreme western ny, with better
chances remaining west of the area where better surface convergence
and upper level support exist. Most areas will see high temperatures
in the mid and upper 70s, with a few of the warmest spots possibly
touching 80.

The main weather feature in the form of a cold front, will push
across the area sometime later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Main
threat with this front appears to be a period of heavy rain with
pwat values rising to 1.75-2.00" within a ribbon of deep moisture
pooling just ahead of the cold front on the leading edge of a modest
30kt low level jet. Deep southerly flow combined with increased
cloud cover will keep low temperatures across most areas in the 60s
Tuesday night, with highs on Wednesday similar to the previous day.

Drier and somewhat cooler air will slowly filter across the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night in the wake of the cold
frontal passage, with a few showers lingering across eastern areas
through the first part of Wednesday night. The axis of a fairly
sharp upper trough will then approach and pass through the area
Thursday and Thursday night. Several shortwaves rotating through the
base of the trough during this time will keep a slight chance for a
few showers around, although think much of the time will be rain
free as drier air associated with the eastern edge of surface high
pressure across the mid mississippi valley tries to nose in across
the lower great lakes. This high will then move ene over the ohio
valley Thursday night, and into pennsylvania on Friday. This should
provide the area with mainly dry weather to end the week. Both
temperatures and humidity levels will be comfortable to end the
week, with highs both days mainly in the mid to upper 70s, and lows
both Wednesday and Thursday night in the mid 50s to around 60.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will build across the great lakes region through
tonight, with mainlyVFR flight conditions during this time.

Lake effect clouds will linger for much of the day, but cloud
bases should be 5-6k feet. Clouds will scatter out this evening
with continuedVFR flight conditions. Valley fog will develop
tonight, with this likely to lower visibility at times at kjhw.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than
southern tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each
late night and morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday... MVFR possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
A fresh northeasterly flow will bring another round of choppy
conditions today, but it looks like conditions will stay below
small craft advisory criteria. Gradient flow will relax some
later this afternoon into Sunday as high pressure builds closer
the lakes. This will promote light winds and negligible waves
through Monday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Jm
long term... Jm
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 28 mi64 min N 9.7 G 12 59°F 68°F1 ft1024.6 hPa (+1.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi64 min NE 13 G 16 65°F 1024.4 hPa (+1.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi52 min 61°F 1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi71 minNNE 510.00 miFair55°F50°F83%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N8N5N7N10N10N9
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N8N8N10N8N6N4N6N6N5N4N3N4N4NE4N5NE5NE5
1 day agoW4NW7NW6NW6NW7W10NW11NW10NW10NW7NW9NW7W5W4W4N6N7N5N3N5N4N4CalmCalm
2 days agoS7S7S8SW9SW11SW14SW11SW12SW14SW12SW11SW11SW12SW9SW10SW6SW7W8W8N9NW5NW7NW7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.