Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:43PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:22 AM EST (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1226 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Overnight..South winds around 10 knots. Cloudy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Occasional rain in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night.
LOZ030 Expires:201912091015;;072713 FZUS51 KBUF 090526 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1226 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-091015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 090253 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 953 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes Monday with above normal temperatures and rain showers for the start of the work week, followed by colder weather and lake effect snow showers for mid week. High pressure will move across the region and bring a return to dry weather for Thursday night and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure off is the southern New England coast and a weak surface trough of low pressure is across the central Great Lakes. There will be broad mid-level warm air advection with a 40-50 knot low level jet across the area which will result in gusty southerly winds. Winds will gust to around 30 mph at most locations.

The southwesterly flow and approaching low pressure will provide a broad area of warm air and moisture advection. Chances for showers will increase after midnight, first across the North Country, then across western and central New York. The southerly flow will prevent temperatures from dropping below freezing at most locations, but there is a chance for mixed precipitation across the North Country. Thermal profiles show a warm layer of around +2c with surface temperatures around freezing in the Lewis county valleys tonight. Precipitation may start as snow, sleet, or freezing rain before changing to all rain Monday morning. It's worth noting that temperatures dropped below zero across portions of the North Country last night, leaving frozen ground surfaces. A Winter Weather Advisory for Lewis County remains in effect overnight. Elsewhere, low temperatures will range from the lower 40s across the lake plains west of Rochester with mid to upper 30s at most other locations.

An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region Monday and Monday night, while a surface low strengthens as it tracks across the central Great Lakes Monday and into southwestern Quebec Monday night. A persistent SSW 50 knot LLJ will provide warm air and moisture advection and favorable jet dynamics will support periods of rain during the period. QPF is heavily influenced by upsloping, with high resolution guidance showing localized amounts of 1-2 inches while the majority of the area will get between a half inch and an inch of rain. The steadiest rain will be Monday afternoon, and then will taper off from west to east Monday night.

Temperatures will be well above normal during the period with highs in the 40s across most of the area on Monday, and lower 50s near the Lake Erie shoreline where downslope warming will be most pronounced. The warmest conditions will probably be Monday evening, during a brief dry period just ahead of the cold front when temperatures will be in the upper 40s to around 50. The cold front will enter western New York late Monday night with southwesterly winds gusting to 40-45 mph. This front may also produce an additional round of rain showers.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Deepening low pressure system will track off across Quebec Canada Tuesday and then arrive over the Ungava Bay by early Tuesday evening. While it tracks northeast, it will send a sharp cold front from west to east across the Lower Lakes. Cold air advection on the back side of the front will send a MUCH colder airmass surging into our area. While temperatures initially will be in the 40s, look for them to fall into the 30s over the course of the day with windy conditions and precipitation winding down behind the front. With that said and as was previously discussed, there is some suggestion of a weak frontal wave developing along the front on Tuesday, per 12Z NAM, ECMWF, and now GFS. While this won't add anything of significant precipitation wise (possibly some wet snow flakes), it will potentially delay the exit of the front to our east.

Lake effect snows beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night .

Right now, it just doesn't look like there will be a decent lake effect response initially or even significant snowfall in the long run. While the air mass will grow colder with time (H850T -12C/-13C by 00Z Wednesday), other factors will be working against well organized and intense lake effect snows. First and foremost, there is a lack of deep synoptic moisture behind the front. It's a fairly dry air mass behind the front and then profiles show some decent shear. Finally, the BIGGEST factor is residence time. Per 12Z guidance and incorporating all the above factors, expect a weak lake response east of both lakes beginning late Tuesday afternoon and then continuing Tuesday night. Lake effect snows will likely focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Ontario with light accumulations occuring overnight.

Wednesday, a shortwave and associated low will race by to our north through Quebec Canada. Wind flow ahead of this feature will back winds more to the southwest directing lake snows off Erie to the north into the Southtowns and Buffalo Metro area. Off lake Ontario, lake snows will get redirected across central Jefferson county. Lake snows are still expected to remain fairly weak ahead of this feature as it travels north. As was previously said, convergence occuring along the cold front with the clipper may merge with the lake effect snows which may yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will then become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes.

The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow.

Wednesday night, in the wake of the cold front and clipper, lake snows will be focused southeast of both lakes under NW'erly flow. Lake snows will also gradually weaken overnight as high pressure over Wisconsin rapidly tracks east behind the departing clipper. A drier air mass will work in across the Lower Lakes and with a strengthening subsidence inversion (lowering equilibrium levels) lake snows will weaken as we head into Thursday.

In terms of temperatures, this will be some of the coldest air so far this winter season. Highs on Wednesday will likely only be in the low to mid 20s. Combine that with a brisk wind flow, and it will feel more like temperatures are in the low teens to single digits. Wednesday night, winds will subside but it will be cold with temperatures falling back into the teens south of Lake Ontario, and single digits across interior locals east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Thursday morning will end as high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise expect some partial clearing outside of lake effect clouds. Highs will be in the mid 20s in most locations. The surface high will still be close by Thursday night, with associated light winds allowing lows to drop into the teens in most areas, and single digits east of Lake Ontario.

The surface high moves off the east coast Friday, with a continuation of dry weather. Developing southerly flow in the wake of the departing high will bring the start of a warming trend, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. The warming trend will continue through Saturday with deep southerly flow across the eastern US, supporting highs back into the low 40s in most areas. A complex pattern will evolve over the east, with a northern stream trough moving into the western Great Lakes and a southern stream low moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Mid Atlantic states. Moisture spreading north of this southern stream low will bring an increasing chance of rain showers Saturday.

Rain showers will continue into Saturday night and Sunday as a complex storm system evolves over the Great Lakes and Northeast. In terms of temperatures, it appears that temperatures will average a little above normal Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ongoing warm air advection will support increasing mid and high level clouds across WNY, followed by low level moisture reaching the western Southern Tier with MVFR cigs overnight, then over the rest of Western and Central NY before 12Z.

Rain showers, possibly starting as mixed precipitation over inland cooler valleys of the North Country, will accompany the low level moisture overnight. KART will likely be all light rain. Rain will then spread across the rest of Western New York Monday morning, then spread east by afternoon. Expect the southerly downslope flow to keep all TAF locations in the MVFR flight category with the exception of KJHW which does not benefit from southerly downsloping.

A 40-50 knot LLJ will largely remain aloft late tonight and Monday, which will result in LLWS at some locations.

Outlook .

Monday night . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes. Thursday . VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. High pressure off the southern New England coast overnight will support a moderate southerly flow with 15 to 25 knot winds across the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where headlines are in place.

A windy period is expected through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night. Small craft headlines may need to be expanded.

HYDROLOGY. A period of warmer temperatures will cause snow melt which will add to run-off from rain on Monday and Tuesday. For most basins, rainfall amounts and the snow pack in place is limited, resulting in little risk for flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin, with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range. Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with 1-2 inches across localized favorable upslope regions. Latest RFC forecast has Boonville reaching action stage, with Watertown poised to reach it just beyond the forecast period. This is in line with latest MMEFS ensembles which show a fairly high likelihood that these points will reach action stage but very low probabilities of flooding.

Based on this, have added a mention of this risk to the HWO. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the situation bears watching. The greatest risk is if temperatures are warmer than expected. If this happens then the additional snow melt would be a concern, but for now there is not enough confidence to issue any flood headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/Zaff SHORT TERM . AR/Hitchcock LONG TERM . AR/Hitchcock AVIATION . Apffel/Zaff MARINE . Apffel/TMA HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi22 min S 8.9 G 15 49°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi52 min 47°F 1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi29 minSSW 1110.00 miOvercast46°F34°F63%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE4S9S12S11S10S14S15S15
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1 day agoNW8NW11NW11NW5W4NW7W5W5W7W5W6NW5N5N3E3SE4E3SE5SE7SE5SE4SE5SE5SE5
2 days agoSE5SE6SE6SE5SE4E5CalmW6NW8N13N12N13NW10NW10W5NW4W5W8NW9NW11NW11NW11NW6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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