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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 505 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of rain late in the evening. Rain likely after midnight, then rain early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday..East wind 10 to 15 knots backing north late in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 022120 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

KEY MESSAGES
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

- Confidence increasing (greater than 60 percent) in higher snowfall amounts for later tonight into Sunday across south central Wisconsin.
- Mainly rain across far southeast Wisconsin for this period, including Milwaukee and Kenosha, with a rain and snow mix between this and the snow to the west.
- Clipper for Monday night and early Tuesday brings another round of light snow showers, with small accumulations possible.

SHORT TERM
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Tonight through Sunday night:

Low clouds will linger this evening, with some light drizzle possible moving onshore from Lake Michigan.

QPF trends with the 12Z suite of models continues to show a steady increase, with ensembles also showing this trend. There remains good synoptic upward vertical motion from the negatively tilted 500 mb shortwave trough shifting through the region during this period, along with some upper divergence from the left front quadrant of a jet streak overnight. There is some modest frontogenesis response in the 700 to 500 mb layer overnight as well. The dendrite growth zone is tapped, but the best upward vertical motion is above it.

Light snow will move northeast into the area between 04Z and 08Z Sunday, peaking 08Z to 14Z Sunday before slowly tapering off Sunday afternoon. Temperature profiles will be warm enough for all rain in far southeast Wisconsin including Milwaukee and Kenosha, with a mix between that area and all snow from a Fond du Lac to Monroe line and west.

Forecast QPF is generally in the 25th to 50th percentile of NBM away from the lake, and more towards the 75th percentile near it.
Forecast snowfall amounts have increased to around the 50th percentile of NBM, which generally gives a 1 to 2 inch accumulation northwest of Madison. Model Certainty continues to trend upwards as well, and the forecast QPF and snowfall amounts are around or below the 25th percentile there. This indicates that the QPF and snowfall amounts could trend upward more with later forecasts. The snow should cause some slippery roads in south central Wisconsin.

Low clouds should linger Sunday night, as the low departs the region. Forecast lows may be too cold given the expected clouds.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Monday through Saturday:

Models and ensembles are in good agreement with a clipper-type system shifting southeast through the region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The 500 mb shortwave trough is fairly robust, and there is decent deep layer moisture to work with.
Temperature profiles suggest mainly light snow showers with this system, and brought PoPs upward to reflect higher confidence (60 percent) in the snow showers occurring. Snow accumulations up to an inch may occur, which ensembles seem to be indicating.

Cluster analysis of 500 mb heights indicate an anomalous ridge developing in the Northern Plains by the middle of next week, and shifting east later in the week over the region. The ridge should remain relatively amplified, which should lead to milder temperatures by later in the week, with south to southwest winds developing.

Wood

AVIATION
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Ceilings should remain in the 1000 to 2000 foot AGL range into this evening. Values down to around 500 feet AGL should linger southwest of Madison as well. Light east winds are expected into this evening.

Light east winds tonight will gradually become north to northwest on Sunday and linger into Sunday night, as low pressure passes by to the south. Light snow will spread northeastward into the area between 04Z and 08Z Sunday, then linger through Sunday morning.
More of a mix of rain and snow, or all rain, is anticipated for the Milwaukee and Kenosha terminals. Sheboygan and Waukesha may see a rain and snow mix as well during this time. As temperatures warm into later Sunday morning, more of a rain/snow mix is expected across the remainder of the area. This activity should wind down by later Sunday afternoon.

Snowfall rates should be around one tenth to one quarter inch per hour between 08Z and 14Z Sunday. It will be a wet snow with a good amount of liquid content in it. Ceilings should drop to less than 500 feet AGL overnight into Sunday morning with the precipitation, with visibility values down to around 1 mile. Some lower values may occur at times. Ceilings should be in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with improving visibility as the precipitation ends.

Wood

MARINE
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Low pressure will track toward the far southern portion of Lake Michigan tonight into Sunday morning. Modest east to northeast winds during this period will become north to northwest Sunday afternoon and night, as the low moves east of the region. Low pressure is then expected to move from North Dakota to southwest Minnesota Monday, then across southern Lake Michigan Monday night and southeast of the region on Tuesday. Modest winds Monday into Monday night should become north to northwest and increase Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels later next week, as milder air moves into the region.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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