Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Turin, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:27PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:16 PM EST (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 6:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1208 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. Rain Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain during the day, then rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 8 to 11 feet, then subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201912112215;;197719 FZUS51 KBUF 111708 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1208 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-112215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Turin, NY
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location: 43.65, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 111822 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 122 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A lake effect snow band will move south through this evening, ending tonight east of Lake Erie, and Thursday morning off Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather later Thursday through Friday. Low pressure moving northward along the east coast will then bring rain and warmer temperatures to the region Friday night through Saturday, with rain changing back to snow Sunday as colder air moves back into the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. At 1 p.m. radar shows an intense band northeast of Lake Erie and across the Buffalo metro area. This band is moving quickly southward and will move across the Buffalo southtowns and into the Western Southern Tier late this afternoon. This southward motion is being driven by a shortwave and associated cold front with winds shifting to the west behind the front. The fast motion of this band will limit additional snowfall amounts to 1 to 3 inches off Lake Erie. However, this will fall in only an hour or two, and will combine with blowing snow to result in extremely poor travel conditions. Even a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out when the band is most intense. There will still be some blowing snow late this afternoon, but in general conditions will improve rapidly with the departure of the snow after 3 p.m. in the Buffalo metro area. Winds gusting to 40 mph will enhance the impact with areas of blowing and drifting snow this afternoon and early evening.

Radar also shows lake snows becoming better organized northeast of Lake Ontario across Watertown. This band will consolidate across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties this afternoon before dropping south of the Watertown around 4 or 5 p.m.

Equilibrium levels to 12k feet and strong winds will allow lake effect bands to extend quite far inland off Lake Erie. It is possible a few segments of the band may detach and be carried eastward by the cold front across the Genesee Valley this afternoon, producing brief, heavy snow squalls.

Lake effect snow off Lake Erie will taper off rather quickly across the Western Southern Tier early to mid evening as drier air builds in and equilibrium levels lower behind the shortwave.

Significant lake effect snow will continue off Lake Ontario. The initial band will drop southward, moving across Oswego and Lewis counties late this afternoon and early evening. This may be followed by a brief lull. A band of lake effect snow should then re- develop near the southeast corner of the lake this evening. This band will settle south across Oswego County as boundary layer flow becomes WNW. Unlike Lake Erie, this band will last longer with a more favorable environment over Lake Ontario through early Thursday morning. Moisture will be limited, so this band is expected to be narrow, but there will be a brief period where winds drop off enough for a land breeze convergence boundary to develop late tonight before winds shift to the south and shear increases Thursday morning. This band may briefly meander into northern Cayuga County, with its intensity still uncertain. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be common, with a general 3-5 inches of snow expected. The Tug Hill may see up to 6 inches as the strongest forcing interacts with upslope flow. Oswego County may also see up to 6 inches if the overnight band remains in one location long enough.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Thursday, winds will back as surface high pressure passes just to our south, with this feature also sending a wealth of mid level dry air across the eastern Great Lakes. A few flurries are possible early Thursday near Buffalo on a southwest flow, while east of Lake Ontario a weakening band of lake effect snow will likely continue to add to modest accumulations. Another inch or so of snow is possible, generally along and to the west of I-81. The backing winds will send a weakening band of snow from near Oswego County in the morning, to near the Thousand Islands by Thursday afternoon . where it will be in a much weaker state.

Fair weather will then occur Thursday night through Friday as this surface high pressure slides to the east. Behind the surface high a southerly flow will develop, and aid in sending Friday's temperatures into the 40s, with mid 40s likely through the Genesee Valley.

While our region is under fair weather, two upstream shortwave troughs will be advancing towards our region . and develop a surface low that will be our next weekend weather system.

The first wave, within the southern branch of the jet will be streaming across the Central Plains Friday, while a second shortwave will be dropping southward across Manitoba. These two waves will carve a deep trough over the eastern US, with this trough replacing a downstream ridge (which help to give us fair weather Friday).

Friday night a surface low will be forming just off the Carolina coastline. A deep southerly and southeasterly flow will transport both Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture northward . with the core of the moisture along a LLJ that will remain well to our east across eastern NY and New England. Still we will have PWAT values rising to three-quarters of an inch Friday night and Saturday, with initial warm air advection, and isentropic lift rain moving across our region Friday night and Saturday. There may be enough initial cold air on the onset of precipitation that a little snow may fall over the Tug Hill region early Friday night. Overall rainfall with this system again looks to be manageable for our region, with minor rises in creeks and streams.

Later Saturday and into Saturday evening a deformation axis rain shield will cross the region, that should primarily fall as plain rain across WNY before the cold air deepens and precipitation type changes to snow. There is still uncertainty with the timing of the colder air and change to snow..but we could see several inches of synoptic snow east of Lake Ontario if the colder air before the deformation band of precipitation ends.

Under the onset of cold air advection Saturday night (850 hPa temperatures falling to around -6 to -8C, and still under moist cyclonic flow aloft, and the passage of the upper level trough axis rain showers will transition to light accumulating snow for our region. Highlighted will be the colder, higher terrain where orographic lift maintains light snow through the night with a coating of snow across the hills of SW NYS, and additional snow on top of the deformation band of snow for areas east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sunday, cold northwesterly flow will continue across our region as a now phased upper level trough, and deepening surface low are across Atlantic Canada. A few wind gusts could near 40 mph along the southern and eastern shoreline of Lake Ontario with this departing surface low. Continued cold air advection, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping down towards the negative teens range through the day will limit any surface warming. Highs Sunday will only be a few degrees warmer than the early Sunday morning lows. There will still be enough moisture around to continue now lake effect snow showers, highlighting areas to the south and southeast of the Lakes. There will also be some blowing snow within these stronger wind gusts . and will add this to the forecast for Sunday. As a ridge of high pressure draws towards the region Sunday night, drier air will end snow showers . while also inducing some clearing. East of Lake Ontario clearing skies will help bring a chilly night with lows dropping down into the lower teens, and possibly into the single digits in the coldest of spots.

Monday a surface ridge will pass across our region, ending any lingering lake effect snow early, and bring a quiet December weather day across the region with temperatures in the afternoon around the freezing mark.

Tuesday there becomes considerable model spread with the track of the next storm system. The 00Z GFS takes a classic high wind profile track of a deepening low pressure to our west and north, while the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian maintain this low to our south, keeping a colder airmass over our region and possible snow.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Lake effect snow will be the main impact, with brief periods of heavy snow expected at KBUF and KART this afternoon. For KBUF, the band will push south of the terminal shortly after 18Z. Impacts will last longer at KART, with heavy snow possible through 22Z. Elsewhere, snow showers will lower visibility to 1SM or less, but will be brief in nature.

Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening with lake snows focusing east of the lakes. The exception is KJHW where periods of MVFR/IFR will linger into this evening. Lake snows will taper off late tonight off Lake Erie and Thursday morning off Lake Ontario. Expect mainly VFR flight conditions late tonight through Thursday TAF sites. A brief period of MVFR conditions is possible at KART/KIAG/KBUF Thursday morning when the remnant lake effect clouds (and maybe a snow shower) move through these terminals.

Outlook .

Thursday night . VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. A clipper low will pass by well north of the region this afternoon, with its trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes by this evening. A brief period of marginal gales will accompany the cold front on both lakes, with a few hours of sustained winds near 35 knots. Winds will quickly diminish tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a period of low end gale force winds this afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. The Lakeshore Flood Watch was upgraded to a Warning for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties this afternoon through tonight. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NYZ012- 085. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008- 019-020. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ010-011. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042- 043. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045- 063>065. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ062. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 48 mi46 min WSW 16 G 24 1020.9 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 73 mi46 min 25°F 1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY28 mi80 minSSW 19 G 2410.00 miLight Snow and Breezy28°F17°F66%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W10
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W10W6W6NE5E3CalmE3SE3S5SE10SE9S11S14S18
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1 day agoSE11S12SE15S10S17S19S15
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SW11SW13SW20
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2 days agoS15S22
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S15S11S11S9SE9SE9SE12SE12SE14SE14SE8
G19
--SE8--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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