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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 642 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers early, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Rain and snow showers likely late. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and light snow during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 042207 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 507 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler weather with a mix of rain and snow transitioning to all snow tonight, with minor accumulations possible east and southeast of the lakes. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday with just a few lingering light rain or snow showers southeast of the Lakes. A weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The axis of the shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight
As it does so
synoptic background moisture will follow with a slow diminishing of lake enhanced snow showers into Tuesday morning
That said
it still possible that we could see some minor accumulations confined to higher terrain where 1-2 inches is possible southeast of both Lakes. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s.

A brief ridge of high pressure will move into the region Tuesday.
Drier conditions are expected with any lingering snow showers confined southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool, west-northwest flow will continue to support low clouds through most of the day. A fast moving clipper system will then move from the Mid-West to the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday afternoon and evening. A period of weak warm air advection aloft may support a period of rain and/or snow showers over far southwest NY. As this weak clipper passes, cold air advection will strengthen and the added moisture will result in a period of lake effect snow showers, mainly south of Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Chilly Tuesday night with lows in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday morning, though shortwave trough will be shifting to the south and east of NY state, somewhat deep moisture tied to the wave and N/NNW low-level flow with H85 temps of -10c will be more than sufficient to produce snow showers south of Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. A couple inches of snow will occur along the Chautauqua Ridge and also south of Lake Ontario toward the Finger Lakes late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The snow showers may linger well into the afternoon across the Finger Lakes in scattered fashion as an additional shortwave drops across Lake Ontario. Coolest day of the week otherwise with highs remaining below freezing higher terrain and only into the mid 30s at lower elevations. High pressure ridge crosses on Wednesday night though height rises aloft are much more modest. Shot below guidance for temps especially east of Lake Ontario with ridge lingering longer.

Upstream shortwave and a warm front dropping east-southeast across the Great Lakes will then begin to spread some light snow into far western NY late Wednesday night with lift further helped along by mid-level warm air advection and divergence aloft from 120+ kt upper jet. Swath of light snow spreads steadily west to east on Thursday morning. Near sfc temps in the low to mid 30s will be marginal for seeing much accumulation, but ptype for majority of the time should stay just snow. Lingering light snow east of Lake Ontario Thursday night but most areas will become dry as the warm front lifts through. Warm front will be felt with return to above normal temps Thursday night, especially far western NY where readings only drop into the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
On Friday, warm front will mainly have lifted northeast of our area while deeper sfc low resides near Lake Superior. Heights aloft will rebound sharply. All-in-all, SW flow to the south of the warm front will result in a breezy day for much of the forecast area. SW flow will keep warming northeast of the lakes tempered, but expect many locations western NY to the Finger Lakes to reach the upper 40s to around 50 while it remains in the low to mid 40s east of Lake Ontario.

This first sfc low will lift to Hudson Bay on Saturday dragging a weak cold front across the Ottawa Valley. Next southern stream shortwave trough will be digging over the southern Plains with sfc low spinning up vcnty of lower Mississippi River valley. Warm front extends northeast of this low and could bring some rain showers to western NYS. Otherwise, have trended pops lower farther east as upper ridge holds precipitation to the west most of Saturday.
Likely more clouds than Friday, but warm air advection will solely push temps well above normal into the 50s for all but inland locations east of Lake Ontario.

Later into the weekend, there is general agreement that the southern stream trough and its associated deepening sfc low will lift across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday Night into Monday.
The agreement is only generalized at this point though as there are differences in main primary guidance suites, including in their individual run-to-run consistency. Ensembles from the ECMWF/GFS and Canadian are starting to mostly agree with their operational counterparts, though the operational GFS still looks too progressive once working into Monday with main sfc low compared to the GEFS members/mean. Though there are still bigger differences, the overall theme/highlights of the pattern are there. Swath of rain moves through later in the weekend ahead of the low along with gusty southerly winds. Once the low shifts north (again there are timing differences), models/ensembles show a good signal that high winds would be a concern (just the NBM mean right now is already showing advisory level winds/gusts for much of the area) which makes sense with the cold air advection taking place in wake of the system and the tight pressure gradient that will be there with the dynamic system moving through. Rain likely will switch over to mainly snow by that point with lake enhanced/lake effect snow to follow early in the week as temps cool back below normal.

Even though the details at this point admittedly are far from locked in, stay tuned as we get closer to the time frame in question as there is at least a potential this system could produce impactful winds and winter weather for our region.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Rain and snow showers will slowly diminish east and southeast of the lakes tonight
Although
WNW flow will continue to produce MVFR CIGS across western and north central NY through Tuesday.

A weak clipper low will then pass to our south Tuesday night with MVFR-IFR conditions and renewed chances for snow showers, especially across the S. Tier near the NY/PA line.

Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
High pressure over central Quebec this evening will then gradually ridge south across the lower Great Lakes later tonight and Tuesday.
This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds by early Tuesday morning.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042- 043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.

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