Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sandy Creek, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:33PM Saturday November 28, 2020 10:57 PM EST (03:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:47PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 109 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
This afternoon..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:202011282230;;534933 FZUS51 KBUF 281809 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 109 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-282230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandy Creek, NY
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location: 43.65, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 290312 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1012 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the Lower Ohio Valley will gradually expand to the east across the Mid Atlantic states tonight. This will allow skies to become mostly clear and will set the stage for a good looking day on Sunday when temperatures will climb above normal. A large storm system will then generate a soaking rain across our forecast area for Monday. This will be followed by accumulating snows in the lake snow belts Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure passing to our south will support fair dry weather through Sunday. Lingering scattered to broken clouds over parts of the North Country into Sunday, but otherwise will be mostly clear. Temps will have decent range tonight, with lows in the 20s Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario but staying in the mid to upper 30s across the Lake Plains. Milder Sunday with highs in the 50s over the western counties and mid to upper 40s for the North Country.

The phasing of a split flow will direct a deepening sfc low to track from the Deep South Sunday evening to West Virginia. This will lead to thickening clouds over our region during the course of Sunday night with the northern edge of its associated shield of rain to advance to the Southern Tier by daybreak Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Heading into Monday, a sharpening shortwave trough over the northern Plains will have begun to interact with a low pressure center over the lower Mississippi River Valley in the mid-levels. These two systems will merge Monday and eventually form a cut off low over the lower Ohio River Valley Monday night. Meanwhile at the surface, a surface low originating from the deep south will rapidly intensify while tracking northeast along the ridge of the Appalachian Mountains due to the interaction between the two features aloft. Ahead of this system, bountiful moisture and large scale ascent will surge into the area producing steady rainfall Monday with rainfall totals adding up to three-quarters of an inch to near an inch possible.

The surface low will then lift northward across Pennsylvania and into New York late Monday evening into Tuesday night. As the center of the low lifts northward, its dry slot will work its way into the region from the south where it will begin to dial back the stratiform steady rain. The surface low appears to linger overhead of the state of New York Tuesday before it slowly weakens and meanders northward into southern Canada Tuesday night. While this occurs, cold air on the back side of the low will wrap back in across the region Tuesday. In the colder air, precipitation will likely transition into snow (especially over the higher terrain). Additionally, the deepening cold air mass will promote a lake response east and northeast of the lakes.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The closed low aloft and its associated surface low becomes vertically stacked and further weakens while rotating somewhere over southern Ontario and southeastern Quebec Wednesday. That said, the region will be in a more showery regime with some dry periods at times especially for locations outside any influences from the lakes. Additionally, cold air continuing to wrap in across the region will produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Temperatures across the lower terrain may warm up enough to switch precipitation to rain, whereas temperatures across the higher terrain will remain cold enough to keep all precipitation in the form of snow. Therefore for those locations across the higher terrain, accumulating snowfall is likely, though it is too far out to pinpoint down any exact snow accumulations this far out.

Model guidances continue to hint at the main closed upper low pulling away to the north/northeast by Thursday, however upper level trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast Thursday and Friday.

A brief upper level ridge will work its way overhead Friday night promoting dry weather overnight. The next area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley will make its way north which will bring the next chance of showers into the region on Saturday.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Scattered MVFR across high terrain of eastern Lake Ontario region through midnight, but otherwise looking at VFR rest of tonight.

Fair VFR weather over most of the area on Sunday with high pressure moving by to our south. Exception will be east of Lake Ontario, where MVFR to lower VFR cigs look likely again until late afternoon.

Outlook . Sunday night . VFR but with thickening clouds and rain by daybreak. Monday . IFR/MVFR. Rain. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for rain and snow showers. Wednesday . VFR/MVFR with the chance for rain and snow showers. Thursday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Winds and waves will continue to diminish the rest of tonight. Moderate to fresh breezes will linger across the Lower Great Lakes on Sunday, as high pressure passes by to our south.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 20 mi58 min S 8 G 9.9 38°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)28°F
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi58 min 1015.2 hPa (-0.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 78 mi58 min WSW 13 G 17 42°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi58 min 41°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY22 mi64 minS 310.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW5SW3SW5SW4SW3SW4S4SW4SW5W18
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W15W11W5S4SW5SW3SW3S3
1 day agoW10W8W6W7W8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SW5SW7SW5SW3NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4
2 days ago66SE7SE5SE8SE6SE7SE6E6Calm3SE33S7SW6SW9W8W10--SW4SW8SW4SW9W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.