Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:27 AM   Moonset 8:41 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1025 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog late this evening. A chance of showers late this evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 291031 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall over our area today, with afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of the boundary to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. While there may be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm well south of Buffalo and Rochester, most areas will be rain free. Temperatures this week will average well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early this morning, a warm frontal segment will lift across southern Ontario, which may spark a few showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region as it passes by. Meanwhile a frontal boundary at the surface will sag southward roughly to I-90 from Buffalo to Syracuse.

The frontal boundary will remain stalled today, resulting in a sharp temperature gradient across our region. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Thousand Islands region and along the south shores of Lake Ontario to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. This frontal boundary will meander a bit, with Buffalo likely to be notably warmer than Rochester today.

Low level convergence and instability near or just south of the boundary will result in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the Western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee River Valley. Ridging aloft will limit the areal coverage.

Tonight, a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. While this in turn will push our stalled frontal boundary out of our region, we will have to turn our attention to the showers and thunderstorms that will approach our region from the northwest. Most of this activity should hold off until after midnight, then chances for showers will increase, especially across the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and Niagara Frontier.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid-level ridge axis will lie across the Northeast into the Mid- Atlantic while the next trough pivots across the Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will extend from the Georgian Bay to central Lake Erie and into central Ohio. A good majority of western New York and the Finger Lakes region will lie within the warm sector, while the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley will remain on the cool side of the warm front. This being said, the combination of increasing moisture along with the approaching front will support rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder to enter the area by day break Tuesday. As the day progresses, chances for showers and thunderstorms will push from west to east with the best chances for thunderstorms will lie across the interior portions of the forecast area where diurnal heating will support the increased probability. The risk for severe storms Tuesday continues to remain low due to the early timing of the frontal passage, and thus resulting in most of the convection to lie east of the area. Additionally, any thunderstorms will be capable in producing some heavy rainfall due to anomalously high PWAT values for late April.

The front will then move east of the area Tuesday night, causing showers to diminish across the North Country Tuesday evening. Then, mostly dry weather is expected across western New York overnight.

Surface high pressure will then push across the region Wednesday through Thursday supporting dry weather for the middle portion of this week. Temperatures will remain above normal for early May, with highs in the 70s each day and cooler conditions along the shorelines of the Lakes.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing northeast across the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario, Canada Thursday night.
While surface high pressure will lie across the region Thursday night into Friday, the aforementioned low pressure will support a warm front to sweep north across the Great Lakes. While this frontal passage may bring a few showers to the region, the forecast area will primarily remain dry Thursday night through Friday.

As this front continues to exit northeast, its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday night. There continues to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes Sunday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The main concern for the 12Z TAFS will be a frontal boundary which will sag southward across Western NY. There will be some fog and areas of IFR or lower cigs near this boundary.

Ceilings and visibility will improve to MVFR in the 13-16Z timeframe, and the to VFR at most locations during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, but these will be in the Upper Genesee Valley and unlikely to impact any TAF sites.

Showers will approach the area from the west tonight, with increasing chances for rain and cigs lowering to 3-4k feet from west to east late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario today, where Small Craft headlines were issued. Winds will diminish tonight. Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few days.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043.

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