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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 411 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 231057 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 657 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
The northern reaches of the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ophelia (just off the coastline of North Carolina) are stretching across the region this morning. While the main impacts of Ophelia will remain well to the south and east of the forecast area, a few rain showers may push into the far southeastern portions Saturday night and Sunday. Then, high pressure will return for the start of the new work week supporting the return of fair dry weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Currently spilled across the region are the northern reaches of the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ophelia, located just off the shoreline of North Carolina. As Tropical Storm Ophelia pushes northward along the Eastern Seaboard, associated precipitation will approach southern New York by late this evening. This all being said, the main impact today will result in thickening cloud cover from south to north. Showers may reach Allegany County by late tonight. It will be cooler today with highs in the 60s to low 70s due to the cloud cover. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s, with a few upper 40s across the higher terrain.

Sunday surface high pressure centered over the provinces of Ontario and Quebec will extend southward across the eastern Great Lakes will battle with the northward push of Tropical Storm Ophelia. While a moderately strong easterly jet between the upper low and the ridge of high pressure will continue to feed Atlantic moisture across northern Pennsylvania, the precipitation shield will advance northward further into southern New York, keeping the far northern portions of the forecast area will remain dry. Highs Sunday will warm up into the 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A staunch Omega block...featuring an anomalously strong ridge centered over James Bay/nrn Quebec...will dominate our weather during this period. Given our favorable position in relation to this block...the vast majority of this time frame will include clear to partly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures. The only opportunity for some showers will come early on...when the weakening remnants of Ophelia could keep some nuisance activity over parts of the wrn Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region Sunday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The Omega block from the previous couple days will transition to a high-over-low Rex block that will basically straddle the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in a cool, dry Canadian sfc high that will slowly build southeast from Quebec to northern New England while low pressure will remain draped from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. There will be a rather sharp divide between these two airmasses in terms of moisture content. While not remaining completely stationary, this boundary is expected to remain in the vicinity of the southwestern portions of the forecast area and across Lake Erie. For most of the region, sensible weather will see much greater influence from the Canadian high rather than the low...With fair, quiet conditions prevailing through at least the end of the week. Across far western NY and the Southern Tier, expect increased cloud cover where the boundary wavers, though have lowered PoPs from NBM to just sChc as the deeper moisture and forcing looks to stay to our southwest.

Temperatures will average near normal through the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Despite the increasing cloud cover from the northern reaches of the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ophelia, flight conditions remain VFR.
Despite cloud cover continuing to thicken and pushing across the region this morning, VFR conditions will persist today and tonight despite the thickening cirrus.

Thickening clouds Sunday will cause clouds to lower to low end VFR across the northern and northwestern portions of the region and to MVFR ceilings across the southern and southeastern portions of the region impacting KJHW.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Northeast winds will increase on both Lakes Erie and Ontario later today through Sunday. Due to elevated winds and waves Small Craft criteria will be met late Saturday on Lake Erie and by late Saturday night on Lake Ontario. Elevated winds across Lake Ontario will last into Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042-043.

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