Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:31PM Monday January 20, 2020 12:33 PM EST (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 1:56PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 940 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202001202215;;243407 FZUS53 KDTX 201440 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 940 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-202215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201644 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1144 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

AVIATION.

Western and northern lower Michigan engulfed in low clouds (2500-3500 ft) late this morning, and some of these clouds should bleed over into southeast Michigan from northwest to southeast with the light west- northwest winds in place. Ultimately, with the consensus amongst the short term models with a subtle trough tracking through, did carry at least a period of high MVFR/borderline VFR this evening/tonight at all taf sites, but upper level ridge axis building into southern Lower Michigan will tend to lower the inversion height which is expected to lead to a dissipation to the low clouds for Tuesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for ceilings below 5000 ft late this evening into early morning hours, otherwise low.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

At the surface, a large area of arctic high pressure will settle southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS in the early/mid week period. The center of this high pressure will build from the upper Missouri Valley today to the Ohio Valley/Appalachia by Wednesday morning. This will provide dry conditions for the area over the next 3 to 4 days with the exception of lingering lake effect snow showers or flurries over the eastern Thumb region early this morning. While light, powdery accumulations (perhaps on order of an additional inch or two locally) will likely occur along the shoreline early in the morning (particularly over parts of Huron county), a steady shift to the east out over the lake will ensue around dawn as drier arctic air continues to spread east into the central Great Lakes.

This air mass will provide a chilly start to the week as the core of cold air associated with this high shifts over the region. Maximum temperatures will range in the 20s once again today after a cold start to the day in the single digits to lower teens in most areas. Similar conditions will persist on Tuesday with temperatures just a few degrees milder as the arctic air mass slowly moderates over the course of the next day or two. Continued moderation can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as return south to southwest flow impacts the area as this high continues its trek to the southeast of the region. Temperatures will edge back into the 30s Wednesday and then climb well into the 30s to around 40 in some locations by Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper pattern will be in a sort of flux over the next several days. A high amplitude ridge over western NOAM will force the next significant shortwave from Canada to dig sharply SSE early in the week. Its track will take it from the northern plains and upper midwest down the Mississippi Valley to northern Florida up into the Carolinas by late Tuesday. This track will bypass the region entire today into tonight (ensuring the dry weather noted above).

In the wake of this system, a quasi-zonal flow setups up briefly as jet energy from the central/northern Pacific breaks down the western ridging temporarily as it comes onshore over British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. The ridging then becomes re-established as this shortwave energy digs into the central plains and carves out an upper low pressure system. This upper low nearly becomes cutoff from the northern stream flow over Canada, but maintains just enough connection as additional weaker shortwave energy rounds the western ridge and digs in behind the main system to help keep it lumbering east across the CONUS. A notable sub-tropical jet in excess of 100 knots also helps push this system along late this week into the weekend.

Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturday as this system passes just south of the area and mean northern stream upper troughing shifts into the region. With only a limited amount of cold air tapped from Canada, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain/snow during this period as temperatures oscillate thru the 30s during the diurnal cycle. Based on model consensus in the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.

The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, but its relative performance this winter does lend this solution some credence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, the more widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly, given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, the closer the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the Great Lakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all wet snow at times. A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would remove both of these "elements" to a large degree.

MARINE .

Post frontal north-northeast winds will continue to gust around 25 knots during the course of the night. Winds will decrease slightly on Monday as the gradient relaxes. Strong high pressure extending across the Ohio Valley during the first half of the week will sustain a decent gradient across Lake Huron. This will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday, while wind slowly back from northwest Monday to southwest by Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SF DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi33 min NNW 4.1 G 7 21°F 1033.9 hPa (+0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi53 min NW 8.9 G 11 20°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi53 min NW 8 G 9.9 24°F 1033.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW10
G19
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G23
N17
G27
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G26
N20
G25
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G27
NW11
G19
N8
N16
G23
N15
G20
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N12
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G13
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G13
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G12
W16
G24
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G21
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G23
W15
G22
W14
G23
W15
G25
W14
G19
W16
G23
W11
G21
W14
G23
W17
G22
W13
G22
W13
G20
W11
G15
NW9
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G18
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N2
G5
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SE13
G16
S10
G15
S10
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G14
S7
G10
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G14
S11
G14
SE15
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G25
SE22
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G30
SE17
G25
SE28
SE26
SE25
G32
SE27
G34
SE21
G34
SE27
G34
SE27
SE23
G30

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi40 minSW 310.00 miOvercast18°F9°F68%1036.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair19°F10°F68%1034.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi38 minN 010.00 miOvercast19°F11°F74%1035.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13N14N12N8N3NW3N5N3NW3W4NW7NW8NW9NW8NW8NW7NW8NW7NW7NW4W3SW3W3SW3
1 day agoS14S10SW14
G24
W14
G22
W21
G30
--W19
G28
W23
G30
W19
G28
W16W16
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W16W18
G26
W20
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G30
W16
G25
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W20W18
G24
W14W14W13----
2 days agoE7SE9SE8E8E7E3SE5SE11SE11SE9SE11E12E14E12E14E14
G23
E12E10E10SE12SE10SE12S15
G22
S13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.