Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:22PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 109 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202106220515;;603442 FZUS53 KDTX 210509 AAB NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan...UPDATED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 109 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-220515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 210517 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 117 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

AVIATION.

The outflow enhanced warm front remains active with thunderstorms during the late night in advance of the MCS moving rapidly eastward from the south end of Lake Michigan. The ETA on this line to the DTW terminal corridor is 08-09Z, possibly reaching up to FNT, and is expected to maintain severe intensity as it moves through the region by about 11Z. MVFR ceiling and a few trailing showers then accompany the cold front as it moves through SE MI during the morning. Westerly wind gusting near 30 knots during the afternoon becomes the main aviation weather factor as clouds lift into a broken VFR ceiling. A clearing trend develops along with a gradual decrease in wind heading into Monday evening.

For DTW . Scattered thunderstorms of moderate intensity precede the next line of severe storms moving in from CHI/Lake MI which are set to arrive 08-09Z. The storms exit around 11Z leaving MVFR ceiling, scattered showers, and increasing west wind through the morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES. * High for thunderstorms through 11Z.

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight through this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 401 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

DISCUSSION .

A convectively induced shortwave that has emerged out of the Central Plains/Kansas City has been the dominant feature in driving a line of shower and thunderstorm activity today across portions of Missouri and Iowa. Thus far, the activity has been struggling to become organized because of a convectively overturned and high CIN thermodynamic environment out ahead of it across western Illinois. The convectively induced shortwave is in a good location, just ahead of the longer axis of stronger absolute vorticity and broader cyclonic flow, to act as a warm advection wave and release northeastward along a line from southern edge of Chicago toward Detroit. For the most part, visible satellite imagery has shown a high amount of insolation ahead of this MCV, particularly across much of Southeast Michigan. RAP based mesoanalysis shows a tight surface based CAPE gradient in place along a stationary front, draped from the southern rim of Lake Michigan eastward long the southern Michigan border to the south shore of Lake Erie. Surface based CAPEs of 3000-4000 J/kg are in place to the south of the gradient with mixed layer CAPE of at least 2000 J/kg immediately south of Toledo.

Modeled parameter space shows very little change to the shear and instability fields over the forecast area through approximately 00Z. Quickly thereafter, models have sub 850mb wind speeds rapidly increasing immediately south of the stationary front as it begins to advance northward. Uncertainty exists with how progressive/how far northward this warm front will make it but current indications suggest as far north as I 96 or M 59. Expectations are for the ragged line to fill in with time this afternoon as it crosses and interacts with greater instability south of Lake Michigan and across northern IN/OH. Combination of instability and shear suggests scattered multicellular to possible supercellular storm mode possible across the far southern forecast this evening. Combination of CAM Hires consensus corroborates latest Time of Arrival time of 00-03Z as greatest threat time for severe weather. Without a forward propagating cold pool the storm threats include: damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail in excess of 1 inch, and potential tornado. The greatest tornado threat appears dependent on any discreet supercell activity or interaction of bowing segments normal to the advancing warm front.

Uncertainty does exist after this first wave, particularly with how much lingering activity will persist in the 05-09Z time window. HRRR runs and ARW advertises that convection and thunderstorm activity will continue to fire over/near the southern three tiers of counties including Metro Detroit. Despite the evening activity, cannot discount this continuation of thunderstorm idea because of the nature of the warm advection wave and rich low-midlevel thetae that is forecasted to lift directly into the state ahead of the geopotential height falls. Severe weather potential remains with this activity during the overnight period given projected shear and instability. The second wave of more organized shower and embedded thunderstorms will be late tonight primarily in the 7-10Z time window. While shear remains very high late tonight for storm organization, the severe potential is expected to be less early Monday morning with less CAPE density and high static stability in the lowest 5000 ft agl.

Will need to watch for localized heavy rainfall for those areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall tonight. Confidence is too low for any flood products, particularly low confidence in the morning line holding together.

Cold advection will occur for all of Southeast Michigan by 15Z Monday as cold front sweeps across the area. Models show good bet for clouds locked in the 3.0-4.0 kft agl layer at the base of strong subsidence inversion with convective debris high cloud overspreading aloft. Temperatures are expected to peak during the morning hours and fall into the 60s for most areas during the afternoon. A secondary cold front is then progged at 03Z Tuesday which will take the rug out on temperatures. 850mb temperatures of 0-1C will make for a very chilly late June night. In fact, temperatures are expected to drop into the 40s areawide, potentially below 40 in northern Midland County.

Models are showing that stable high pressure will hold across the region through the middle of the week. Finding it difficult to believe totally dry QPF solutions as cold midlevels could support some afternoon instability showers. Will need to watch the Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon time periods for slight chance/chance PoPs.

The extended period is advertising the potential for a tilted upper level ridge to extend into Southeast Michigan Thursday and Friday. Another deep trough axis is shown to track across Canada and impinge on the western Great Lakes. d(prog)/dt has shown a westward shift to the resultant strong baroclinic zone to now well west of Lower Michigan. So, low confidence exists on the Friday-Sunday timeframe as the positioning of this slow moving front will make all the difference to the sensible weather forecasts.

MARINE .

Advancing low pressure and its attendant cold front will approach the central Great Lakes this evening, with potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe storms mainly during the late evening- overnight hours. Strong winds, enhanced wave heights, and lightning will be likely with these storms. As precipitation chances diminish through the morning hours tomorrow, expect wind gusts to ramp up across all marine zones as lingering low-level wind field and cooler air mass aloft allow gusts to reach the surface in the 25-30+ kt range by early afternoon, with Small Craft Advisories going into effect Monday morning along the Lake Huron nearshore. Strong gusts reach low end gales Monday as well across the open waters, particularly across northern Lake Huron where northwesterly flow aligns with the longer axis of the lake, in which Gale Warnings are now in effect through Monday evening. Winds to gradually weaken by Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure tracks overhead, before rain chances return to end the work week.

HYDROLOGY .

Another round of showers and thunderstorms moves into southeast Michigan tonight into Monday morning. Warm and humid air will be in place while storms are expected to be fast moving and limit average rainfall to around a half inch across the region. Bands of heavier rain are expected along a warm front that moves from the Ohio border northward to the I-69 corridor tonight. This area has potential for total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range in a short period of time. Urban and small stream flooding is possible along with flooding of other poor drainage areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . MV HYDROLOGY . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi60 min Calm G 1 67°F 997.6 hPa
45163 26 mi60 min S 16 G 19 68°F 2 ft998.7 hPa (-5.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi80 min SSE 21 G 24 68°F 999.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi80 min SE 13 G 17 67°F 999 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi67 minSSE 710.00 miFair67°F64°F91%997.9 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi65 minSE 410.00 miFair65°F63°F95%998.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi65 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F64°F90%998.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N4NW4N5N3CalmCalmCalmS6CalmSW635NW5S4SE3S3E6E8E4S5S6S7
1 day agoW6W7SW5SW6S6SW9NW9W9W10W11
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S9S12SW6SW12W9SW8SW10SW8S5S6SW5CalmCalm
2 days agoS9SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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