Saturday, November28, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday November 28, 2020 2:44 AM EST (07:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 5:52AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 948 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202011281015;;503872 FZUS53 KDTX 280248 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-281015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 280456 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1156 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

AVIATION.

Arrival of drier air within the immediate post-cold frontal environment leaves simply some pockets of lake enhanced stratus for the remainder of the overnight. Outgoing forecast will maintain simply a scattered mention. VFR with mostly clear skies outside of passing cirrus will then exist Saturday and Saturday night. Winds gradually backing to southwest and increasing slightly during the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling below 5000 feet overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 403 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

DISCUSSION .

Predictability late Sun night-Tues System:

Palpable energy/attention remains centered on the storm system that is expected to deepen east of the Mississippi River Valley Monday . then occlude/stall out Tuesday somewhere near the Eastern Great Lakes and Northeastern United States. Low deepening is tied to the interaction and phasing of two larger wavelength shortwaves; the closed low that releases off of the subtropical jet near New Mexico as an edge wave, and a deep Alaskan upper level trough that digs down into the Northern Plains. The details for the sensible weather forecast here locally hinges on the timing/placement of both the merger of potential vorticity anomalies along with the eventual positive-to-negative tilting of the main northern stream energy as it rounds through the subgeostrophic trough base on Tuesday.

Summarization of ensemble mean information supports upper level low amplification across the TN/OH River Valleys with the main surface cyclone tracking from the GOMEX shoreline 12Z Sunday 11/29 to upstate NY by 00Z Tuesday 12/1. WPC Cluster Tool are not immediately obvious in explaining the spread amongst the ensemble members, however, there is some weak signal suggesting speed of southern stream edge wave remains an influence on Day3 and a strong signal that variability is explained on Day4 by the deep Alaska trough advancing through the northern Plains. Satellite imagery suggests that a more comprehensive sampling of the Alaska wave will begin with the 00Z raobs tonight as it advances into British Columbia, full sampling by 12Z Saturday morning. This will be welcomed as Cluster Phase Space analysis shows the computed clusters remaining strongly biased toward the separate ensemble systems (i.e. EPS remains clustered together, GEFS together, CMCE together. The upcoming raob captures should help in a continued improvement in solution convergence during the next 6 to 18 hours.

Qualitative d(prog)/dt of model inits from the past 48 hours showed a shift to the south and east with the initial surface low track by an approximate 200 miles. The latest 12Z runs have largely held onto these gains with improved confidence in the start time of precipitation after 09Z Monday. Uncertainty for this event now revolves around the timing of the secondary low deepening event late Monday night and early Tuesday. The secondary low deepening will bring the possibility for the midlevel deformation axis/Trowal to stall out over portions of the cwa for an extended period from Monday night through possibly Tuesday evening. A less progressive solution trend has emerged after Day3 in the 27.12Z Operational GFS/ECMWF runs, but confidence remains low based on the aforementioned uncertainty depicted in the eof analysis at Day4.

Forecast Messaging narrative. The potential exists for widespread precipitation beginning after 09Z Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Latest forecast soundings analysis supports precipitation beginning in the form of rain Monday morning for the eastern cwa including Metro Detroit. Precipitation may then begin as snow or changeover to snow for portions of the western cwa as rates increase. Relatively warm boundary layer temperatures Monday may limit accumulations during the early portion of the event. Timing the end of the precipitation is difficult and could extend later into Tuesday night. It remains too early to offer forecast snow amounts. While the likelihood is higher than average for a longer duration accumulating snowfall Monday and Tuesday, confidence has improved that a Major Winter Storm System will miss Southeast Michigan to the south and east.

MARINE . Brisk westerly flow will back more southwesterly Saturday and continue through Sunday as high pressure passes to the south. A cold front will pass through Sunday night veering winds to the north. A large winter storm will take shape over the Ohio Valley and lift northeast Monday increasing northerly flow with gusts approaching gales Monday and Tuesday along with large waves peaking over 10 feet Monday night. Enough warm air with this system will produce mostly rain and snow mix over the marine zones.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi44 min W 19 G 21 36°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi64 min W 19 G 22 35°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi64 min W 9.9 G 16 35°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi51 minW 710.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1018.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi49 minW 610.00 miFair32°F28°F87%1017.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi49 minW 310.00 miFair31°F27°F87%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW6SW7W7W5SW3SW3SW5SW6SW8W10SW8W9SW7SW6SW7W10W14
G22
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1 day agoN5W4NW6W5W10W8W10W12W10SW9SW9SW10SW7SW6SW13SW10SW7SW9W10W10SW8SW6SW6S6
2 days agoSE5S5S10S8S7CalmSE3SE5SE3SE5E5E7E7E7NE6NE7NE7NE9NE8NE7N7N7N7N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.