Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:27PM Friday January 17, 2020 1:16 PM EST (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 12:19PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1022 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Saturday night...
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the southwest with gusts to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Snow.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Cloudy. Light snow in the evening, then a chance of light snow after midnight. A gale warning may be needed. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202001172200;;088454 FZUS53 KDTX 171522 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1022 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-172200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 171658 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1158 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

AVIATION.

There remains a few areas of MVFR based strato cu in the vicinity of southern Ontario and Lake Erie. As the low level east-southeast flow increases this afternoon/evening, some of these clouds may continue to be ducted under neath the shallow inversion, thus temporarily impacting the terminals. A region of moderate snow will overspread Se Mi in the 04Z to 07Z time frame tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the overnight before an additional influx of moisture supports some heavy snow. This is most likely in the 09Z to 14Z time frame and will primarily be focused south of FNT. Snowfall rates through this period will range between one to two inches per hour.

For DTW . The onset of light to moderate snow is expected between 04Z and 05Z at metro, with the peak intensity likely to occur between 09Z and 13Z, with snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour. Some sleet may mix in with the snow around daybreak. The heavy snow will abruptly transition to light rain or drizzle between 14Z and 16Z. Strengthening south winds during the early afternoon on Saturday will veer toward the west toward the end of the forecast period. Gusts by early Sat evening may exceed 30 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings under 5000 feet overnight through Saturday.

* High for precipitation type as all snow through daybreak Saturday. Moderate for some sleet to mix in Saturday morning. High that precip will transition to all light rain/drizzle Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 451 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

DISCUSSION .

An impactful winter storm is expected to produce periods of heavy accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan Friday night through Saturday.

For this morning, mid-level isentropic downglide will facilitate increasing dewpoint depressions for much of the daylight hours keeping conditions dry and chilly. 850mb temperature spread ranges from -8C to -12C translating to surface lows hovering in the upper teens by daybreak. Decentralized surface pressure field over lower MI will prohibit much of a gradient keeping winds benign as tropospheric ridging allows for anticyclonic flow induced subsidence paving the way for occasional cloud breaks. High cloud will advect en-masse aloft ahead of the next disturbance. In fact, current GOES- E RGB channel depict the ridge making progress into SW lower MI with incoming cirrus. High temperatures will remain in line with normal climatological values today, just below freezing.

Attention turns to the upcoming winter storm starting late Friday . Upper-level dynamics fields continue to suggest the merging of northern and southern streams of the split jet by 18Z Friday. This will support the rapid intensification of the combined upper-level wave as heights plummet and geostrophic velocities surge over the Missouri basin Friday evening. The feature will induce rapid cyclogenesis on the lee-side of the Rockies kicking a surface low eastward as deep layer cyclonic flow ensues. Given the broad reach of this system, the 925-850 mb layer will quickly become saturated as efficient moist WAA converges up the Mississippi valley characterized by strong low-level ThetaE advection rates (over 20C/12hr) across the MI/OH border after 00Z Saturday. The moisture gradient remains very sharp along the affiliated warm layer such that 850mb dewpoint temperatures will jump 25C in less than 3 hours late Friday night as the event gets underway.

Shifting focus to amounts, SLRs appear to fluctuate near climatological values (about 12:1) with the first round of snow. Forecast soundings illustrate excellent supersaturation (wrt ice) prior to 12Z across the southern counties. Given sufficient cold air in place ahead of the moisture plume, a well aligned DGZ aloft will work in tandem with efficient riming process to created large and fluffy flakes overnight. Model QPF pushes liquid equivalent values into the 0.75-1.00 inch range through Saturday evening south of the M-59 corridor favoring periods of heavy snowfall as rates approach the 1 in/hr mark. Deformation will play a two-fold role with this event as the NAM depicts an initial deformation axis along the I-94 corridor followed by a second period as the low lifts north later on Saturday. This will help further enhance areas of synoptic ascent and mesoscale vertical motions to produce localized areas up to 8 inches. Snow totals fall off heading north of M-59 as moisture diminishes, thus the current breakout between Warning/Advisory. Overall, 4-7 inches of total snowfall is the most likely scenario at this juncture, before the melt-off begins.

The largest source of uncertainty with this event lies in timing the arrival of warmer air Saturday morning. Surface temperatures will climb above freezing on Saturday from southwest to northeast as easterly flow veers southerly. Precipitation will still be on-going in some areas which increases the likelihood of a snow-sleet-rain progressing phase change. Once the snow is undercut by warmer air, the melting and runoff processes that follow could make for areas of localized ponding or flooding in poor draining areas by the afternoon. Temperatures late Saturday afternoon could even approach 40F in the Metro area (accelerating snow-melt) before temperatures retreat again Saturday night once the dry slot works around the back side of system delivering revived zonal flow.

Upper low lingers on Sunday and Monday with limited as chillier temperatures persist with limited potential for precipitation. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will take hold over the central Plains under an expanding ridge which will generally maintain a NW flow pattern through Tuesday.

MARINE .

Winds will relax through the morning as a strong area of high pressure passes overhead weakening the pressure gradient. Wind through the afternoon will be relatively light (under 20 knots) before ramping up again tonight ahead of the next low pressure system. This next low will deepen while tracking northeast through the central Great Lakes on Saturday bringing a period of heavy wet snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will likely become an issue as well as initially they increase Friday night ahead of the warm front. Winds could briefly touch gales across central Lake Huron but confidence is low at this point. Winds will then switch to strong westerly late Saturday behind a cold front with a good chance of reaching gale force across western Lake Erie where a Gale Watch will be issued. Gale potential is slight less north through Lake St Clair and southern Lake Huron and will forgo a watch at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday for MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Saturday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ441>443- 462>464.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi17 min E 4.1 G 5.1 22°F 1040.6 hPa (-3.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi37 min Calm G 0 22°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi37 min S 2.9 G 5.1 24°F 1042.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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G9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi24 minESE 710.00 miFair24°F10°F57%1042.8 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi22 minESE 410.00 miFair23°F12°F63%1041.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi22 minE 610.00 miFair23°F12°F64%1041.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14NW15
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--N14N18
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NW15N15N13N10N9N7N11N8N4CalmE3E3NE3SE5E9E6E7
1 day agoE4NE8NE7E6N5N5N6N5W5W6W8W13W13W9W9W11W15NW12W13
G21
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2 days ago--SW9SW10SW12SW10W12W13
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W11SW8W10W11W8W8W8W7NW3N7SW6--S4S3CalmE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.