Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:36PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:19 PM EDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 341 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908190315;;844447 FZUS53 KDTX 181941 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 341 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-190315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181919
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
319 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Discussion
The numerous showers and thunderstorms which worked through
southeast michigan this afternoon (a few severe), helped drop
temperatures into the 70s, leading to a significant stabilization of
the airmass (see 19z SPC mesoscale analysis). Thus, confidence is
low that activity with the actual cold front will be severe, not to
mention the coverage of activity is in question this far north. At
least, the 17z rap looks to be trending in the right direction (less
activity). None-the-less, still a short window to destabilize (lower
80s) before sunset, and the upper level dynamics shear (50 knots of
effective shear) needs to be respected as it sweeps through around
00z. On the flip side, could be in the shadow of the organizing
thunderstorm complex developing over central indiana into ohio where
the MAX instability (mlcapes of 2500 j kg) presently resides, which
should help mitigate our severe chances as well.

Strong upper level low (545 dam at 500 mb) over northern manitoba
will be the main influence director to our weather over the several
day, as it swings through ontario during the mid week period,
supporting a significant cool down.

An extension of trough axis will be lifting through the northern
great lakes tonight, with 500 mb heights beginning to rebound over
southern lower michigan on Monday. Thus, the cold front that slips
through southeast michigan tonight, will more or less wash out. With
the lingering low level moisture, especially with the rainfall from
this afternoon, and weak surface convergence, some fog and or low
stratus development appears possible late tonight.

500 mb heights rise to around 588 dam on Monday, but still enough
residual low level moisture 850 mb theta-e and instability around to
support low chance pops along south of i-94.

Pseudo zonal upper level flow with upper level energy PV coming out
of the rockies and tracking through midwest Monday night. It appears
the potential thunderstorm complex will track off to the southeast
during Tuesday and miss the state. This will also help cut off some
of the moisture advection ahead of the cold front, which tracks
through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Thus, a dry frontal passage
remains possible.

Warmer temperatures, with highs in the 80s, will remain in place on
Wednesday before cooler temps come back for the remainder of the
week. By Thursday, 850mb temps will be back in the single digits. A
slight chance of precipitation also remains in the forecast
Wednesday afternoon, as a wave passes over. The rest of the
forecast period going into the weekend will feature pleasant
temperatures and dry weather as high pressure settles in over the
region.

Marine
A low pressure system lifting through lake superior this afternoon
will pull a cold front through the region this evening. This front
may produce another round of thunderstorms this evening before
pushing east of the area. Southwesterly winds will veer westerly
behind this front tonight and to the northwest on Monday as a
secondary front drops through the region. Winds will be strongest
this evening out of the southwest with gusts reaching 25 knots.

Though cooler air will advect in behind the front tonight, high
pressure building in will weaken the gradient and prevent stronger
gusts tonight and Monday. Though mostly a dry forecast beyond
tonight, additional showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
possible over lake erie and st. Clair with the frontal boundary
stalling nearby.

Prev discussion
Issued at 144 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019
aviation...

active forecast with convection chances through the evening with
fog stratus overnight as precip moves off to the east. Convection is
ongoing but should push east of the TAF sites within an hour or two.

Questions for this evening as models continue to indicate a second
line of storms developing and pushing through around 22-02z.

Confidence is low with this second line due to ongoing precip and
cloud cover preventing stronger destabilization. Will leave tempo
group to highlight timing for now as we monitor the next couple
hours. Fog should again develop tonight in the wake of the showers.

Winds will veer from southeasterly today to westerly tonight and
northwesterly on Monday. Stratus may linger well into the day
Monday.

For dtw... Storms currently in the vicinity will be pushing off to
the east early in the forecast. Attention then turns to a second
round of storms that look to target the airport after 23z. Question
remains for strength of this second round but will highlight with
tempo as we monitor trends this afternoon. Stratus may linger
through the overnight which would prevent thicker fog cover, so will
hold MVFR for now.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings AOB 5kft this afternoon through tonight.

* high for thunderstorms 18-20z. Low between 00-03z.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Monday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf sp
marine... ... .Drk
aviation... ..Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi19 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 1007.8 hPa (-3.0)
45163 26 mi39 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 74°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi18 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 73°F 1008.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi39 min SSE 4.1 G 7 76°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi86 minS 1010.00 miFair82°F66°F58%1007 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi84 minS 810.00 miFair81°F64°F58%1007.4 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi1.7 hrsS 610.00 miFair81°F66°F60%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmSW6CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4S6S6SW5S6SW3S6S6S7S6S10S13SW12SW13
G21
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G26
1 day agoS74SE3CalmSE6SE6S6S7S8S12SW8SW6W5SW4SW5W7W10SW9W12W14W9W10SW9SW5
2 days agoNE4--NE5E3E3CalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmN3N4CalmCalmNE4Calm3E365W5S7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.