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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. |
| Sunrise 6:43AM | Sunset 8:57PM | Sunday August 9, 2020 4:56 PM EDT (20:56 UTC) | Moonrise 11:03PM | Moonset 11:35AM | Illumination 67% |  |
LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Through early evening..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering north toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering south, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Through early evening..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering north toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering south, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ848 Expires:202008100800;;190885
FZUS53 KGRR 092006
NSHGRR
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
405 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan
LMZ848-100800-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 43.66, -86.53 debug
Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionFXUS63 KGRR 091919 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 319 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine
SYNOPSIS. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
- Fading Storms into Early Monday, More Possible Monday Night
- Quieter Weather Until Next Weekend
DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
This pattern is notoriously difficult for pinning down who's likely to get rain and who isn't. Rich, low level moisture with modest instability but lack of deep layer forcing leads to question marks about storm chances through early Tuesday. The high resolution CAMs failed to signify a heavy rain threat earlier this morning from Sheboygan, WI across the lake through Pentwater and eastern Oceana County. The prior 00z run of the HREF's 24-hour probability matched mean rainfall had less than 0.10" for this area but in reality there was a swath of 1"-2" across Mason/Oceana Counties and an even heavier swath of 3"-6" near Sheboygan. The HREF did indicate PWAT values of around 1.8" in this area as slow moving storms developed but the five members of the HREF didn't catch the magnitude of rainfall as of their 00z initializations.
Fast forward to tonight and Monday, and similar challenges exist in forecasting thunderstorm chances. While a 30 knot LLJ will be moving into Missouri and Illinois by 06z tonight, it will be buckling SE and we'll miss out on the best low level moisture convergence. The 500 mb winds never get above 20-30 knots and deep layer shear will be 20 knots or lower, so storm organization will be impacted and propagation may quickly become outflow dominated if any manage to cross the lake overnight. Storms will likely fade around sunrise but some heavy downpours and residual gusty winds are possible mainly near and west of US 131 very late tonight into Monday morning.
I could envision the remnant outflow boundary potentially kicking off a shower or storm primarily east of US 131 during the day Monday but the coverage is questionable. Still, localized downpours would be possible. The better chance for thunderstorms exists Monday evening into Monday night as better forcing is present, with the right entrance region of the upper level jet moving in and sfc based CAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. We are not expecting severe weather at this time. The main threat would be locally heavy downpours with some ponding of water on roads.
Finally, there is a possibility that a few locations mainly near and west of US 131 could pick up a few inches of rain through Monday night (eg. the 06z/12z HRRR runs show this), but feel the geographic scope is likely to be too localized to cause widespread impacts. Rain rates in the heavier storms could exceed 1"/hour, but coverage would be limited enough to preclude a threat to most rivers and streams, and most locations would not get substantial rain.
-- Quieter Weather Until Next Weekend --
Most medium range guidance suggests the second half of Tuesday into Friday should be dry for most areas (aside from an isolated shower or storm here or there). Dew points are forecast to drop into the 50s and 60s until rebounding back toward 70 for the weekend. We may see a scattering of showers and storms by that time.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Mainly looking at VFR conditions this afternoon and the first part of the night. After midnight, models show a signal for some storms to roll out of Wisconsin in weakening mode after 09z, so we included a VCTS comment in the western TAFs. Given the high dewpoints, it's also possible we could see some fog during the early morning hours.
MARINE. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Waves will build into the 2 to 4 foot range later tonight and into Monday out ahead of a front moving in late Monday night. Winds will be from the S/SW. Behind the front, winds will turn more northwesterly but generally 1 to 3 footers are expected Tuesday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.
SYNOPSIS . Hoving DISCUSSION . Hoving AVIATION . 04 MARINE . Hoving
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 20 mi | 62 min | SSW 11 G 16 | 73°F | 68°F | |||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 27 mi | 76 min | S 12 G 17 | 73°F | 1016.9 hPa | |||
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 32 mi | 46 min | S 9.9 G 12 | 75°F | 1015.6 hPa | 71°F | ||
| 45161 | 34 mi | 36 min | S 7.8 G 9.7 | 73°F | 69°F | 2 ft | 1016.1 hPa | |
| MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 42 mi | 76 min | S 9.9 G 13 | 74°F | 1017.3 hPa |
Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | |
| Last 24hr | S G12 | S G17 | S G22 | S G20 | S G19 | S G20 | S G23 | S G21 | S | S G19 | S G18 | S G17 | SW G16 | S | S G18 | SW G14 | NW G5 | SW G4 | S | SW G20 | SW | SW G11 | SW G12 | SW G15 |
| 1 day ago | -- | SW | SW G5 | SW G6 | S | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | SE G9 | S G11 | S G11 | S G17 | S G15 | S G16 | S G16 | S G17 | SW G13 | S G12 | S G22 | S G14 |
| 2 days ago | W G6 | SW | SW | W | W | -- | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | -- | W | W | SW G4 | W | SW G4 | W | W | SW G4 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI | 22 mi | 61 min | SW 7 | 10.00 mi | Fair | 79°F | 70°F | 77% | 1015.6 hPa |
Link to 5 minute data for KLDM
Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
| 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | |
| Last 24hr | S | S G16 | S G18 | SW G16 | SW G17 | S | S G19 | S G20 | SW G18 | SW G18 | SW G18 | SW | SW G14 | S | SW | S G16 | W | W | SW | SW G16 | SW | SW | SW | S |
| 1 day ago | SW | W | W | SW | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | SE | E | S | S | S G14 | S | S G15 | S G16 | SW G8 | S | SW | S G15 |
| 2 days ago | W | W | W | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | SW | Calm | SW | SW | SW | SW | W |
Tide / Current Tables for
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) HelpTide / Current Tables for
EDIT (on/off) HelpWeather Map
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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