Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:56 PM EDT (20:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:03PMMoonset 11:35AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Through early evening..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering north toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering south, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ848 Expires:202008100800;;190885 FZUS53 KGRR 092006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-100800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 091919 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 319 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

- Fading Storms into Early Monday, More Possible Monday Night

- Quieter Weather Until Next Weekend

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This pattern is notoriously difficult for pinning down who's likely to get rain and who isn't. Rich, low level moisture with modest instability but lack of deep layer forcing leads to question marks about storm chances through early Tuesday. The high resolution CAMs failed to signify a heavy rain threat earlier this morning from Sheboygan, WI across the lake through Pentwater and eastern Oceana County. The prior 00z run of the HREF's 24-hour probability matched mean rainfall had less than 0.10" for this area but in reality there was a swath of 1"-2" across Mason/Oceana Counties and an even heavier swath of 3"-6" near Sheboygan. The HREF did indicate PWAT values of around 1.8" in this area as slow moving storms developed but the five members of the HREF didn't catch the magnitude of rainfall as of their 00z initializations.

Fast forward to tonight and Monday, and similar challenges exist in forecasting thunderstorm chances. While a 30 knot LLJ will be moving into Missouri and Illinois by 06z tonight, it will be buckling SE and we'll miss out on the best low level moisture convergence. The 500 mb winds never get above 20-30 knots and deep layer shear will be 20 knots or lower, so storm organization will be impacted and propagation may quickly become outflow dominated if any manage to cross the lake overnight. Storms will likely fade around sunrise but some heavy downpours and residual gusty winds are possible mainly near and west of US 131 very late tonight into Monday morning.

I could envision the remnant outflow boundary potentially kicking off a shower or storm primarily east of US 131 during the day Monday but the coverage is questionable. Still, localized downpours would be possible. The better chance for thunderstorms exists Monday evening into Monday night as better forcing is present, with the right entrance region of the upper level jet moving in and sfc based CAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. We are not expecting severe weather at this time. The main threat would be locally heavy downpours with some ponding of water on roads.

Finally, there is a possibility that a few locations mainly near and west of US 131 could pick up a few inches of rain through Monday night (eg. the 06z/12z HRRR runs show this), but feel the geographic scope is likely to be too localized to cause widespread impacts. Rain rates in the heavier storms could exceed 1"/hour, but coverage would be limited enough to preclude a threat to most rivers and streams, and most locations would not get substantial rain.

-- Quieter Weather Until Next Weekend --

Most medium range guidance suggests the second half of Tuesday into Friday should be dry for most areas (aside from an isolated shower or storm here or there). Dew points are forecast to drop into the 50s and 60s until rebounding back toward 70 for the weekend. We may see a scattering of showers and storms by that time.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Mainly looking at VFR conditions this afternoon and the first part of the night. After midnight, models show a signal for some storms to roll out of Wisconsin in weakening mode after 09z, so we included a VCTS comment in the western TAFs. Given the high dewpoints, it's also possible we could see some fog during the early morning hours.

MARINE. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Waves will build into the 2 to 4 foot range later tonight and into Monday out ahead of a front moving in late Monday night. Winds will be from the S/SW. Behind the front, winds will turn more northwesterly but generally 1 to 3 footers are expected Tuesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hoving DISCUSSION . Hoving AVIATION . 04 MARINE . Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi62 min SSW 11 G 16 73°F 68°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi76 min S 12 G 17 73°F 1016.9 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi46 min S 9.9 G 12 75°F 1015.6 hPa71°F
45161 34 mi36 min S 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 69°F2 ft1016.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi76 min S 9.9 G 13 74°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi61 minSW 710.00 miFair79°F70°F77%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW7W8W5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3S5S7S9
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2 days agoW7W6W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW7SW4SW7SW6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.