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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1105 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..West winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots backing north late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 301817 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 117 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Few icy spots may be possible this morning as patchy fog moves through areas mainly along and north of I-96. Road temps are currently in the upper 20s with air temps right around freezing. An SPS may be warranted to highlight potential hazardous driving conditions for the morning commute due to black ice.

Zonal flow dominates the regime over the eastern CONUS today supporting decent warm air advection with 850mb temps climbing towards +3C to +4C. This will bring high temperatures back into the 40s today. In addition to warmer temps, winds will be breezy as a 45- 50 knot LLJ sets up overhead. Inversion heights up towards 1-2kft will support gusts to 25-35mph mixing down to the surface this afternoon.

Bigger area of focus for the forecast will be on a system that will move through the area late tonight through Friday. In this event, a shortwave will track northeasterly from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley/southern Michigan. This system still looks likely to produce a mix of rain and snow with the rain/snow mix arriving near I-94 after midnight, then towards the I-96 corridor after 7am Friday producing mainly snow. Model guidance continues to highlight the higher swath of 1-3 inches of snow occuring within the I-96 to M-46 corridor, but with many varying thermodynamic parts in play it's possible this band of snow could be much more narrow. Possible mesoscale banding will support higher snow rates at times Friday morning which may allow some accumulation on area roads. Hazardous travel will be possible for the Friday morning commute.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

The front remains nearly stationary over the MI/IN/OH state line area for Friday night with a second upper shortwave sliding through aloft. Weak persistent isentropic upglide will continue much of Friday night, so we expect precipitation to continue Friday night with a rain/snow mix north of I-96 and rain off to the south. There is potential for a wet 1-2 inch snow fall over portions of the central and northern CWA. Location of the front and exactly what the low level thermal profile are like will dictate location and amounts. At this point though it looks like north of I-96 and on the order of around an inch potentially.

Precipitation tapers off on Saturday, but does not completely end as we move through the weekend given an upper trough and shortwaves moving through the region. We have higher pops into Sunday as our model blend is likely leaning a bit on the GFS which has a surface low moving directly through the CWA. The ECMWF is further east with the low development. Rain and snow are in the forecast over the weekend with critical temperatures near thresholds for both ptypes.

As we head through the early to middle portion of next week, conditions become a bit quieter as northwest flow trends towards ridging. One final low may move through the region in the Tuesday time frame though and we have 20-40 pct pops in the forecast for both rain and snow.

Temperatures through the period will be near normals and also conducive for a mixture of precipitation types (Rain/Snow).

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

The effects of developing low pressure over Oklahoma and a surface front settling over our part of Michigan will become more apparent tonight into Friday morning. Clouds at lower altitudes will gradually become more common tonight as moisture is transported by strong southwesterly winds above ground level.
Moderate-high confidence in MVFR ceilings developing in a portion of the area after 00 Z. Around 12 Z Friday morning, ceilings will range from IFR around AZO-BTL-JXN to VFR near and north of LDM- RQB-MOP, then will only deteriorate as heavier precipitation with decreasing visibility arrives for the middle of the day.
Temperatures favor rain at AZO-BTL-JXN. It's still not totally clear exactly where the rain/snow line will set up but it should be near GRR-LAN.

MARINE
Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Small Craft Advisory will continue. Waves will increase today with strong southwesterly winds building towards 20-25 knots, gusting to 30 knots this afternoon. Into this evening winds will shift northerly and waves will quickly fall to 1 to 2 feet late tonight into Friday morning.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

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