Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hart, MI

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI

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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 081900 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Long Term

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Little change to the weather expected in the short term. Skies are mostly clear with a few cu popping up early this afternoon. More concentrated clouds were noted over far northeast Lower and these were slowly dropping south. A few of the CAMs hint at some light precipitation developing later this afternoon along/east of US-127, but the chances appear lower than yesterday when a few did develop.
Li's fall to near 0c and there is around 100 j/kg SBCAPE. What's been a constant, though, has been the milky sky. Smoke continues to filter southwestward across the region from forest fires in Ontario/Quebec. This will continue through Friday and Air Quality Advisories are in effect for the entire cwa today and Friday through noon, at which point EGLE will determine whether they should be extended into Friday afternoon.

Bufkit RH progs show limited cloud cover tonight through Friday night. Interestingly enough, surface dewpoints are actually progd to increase into the 40s tonight and Friday as a bit more moisture wraps into the New England low and then pushes southwestward toward Lower MI. This may allow us to pop a few more cu Friday.

A cold front will move across the UP Friday night and we're likely to see some high clouds develop ahead of it.

Lows tonight will once again fall into the 40s, then rebound into the upper 70s tomorrow before falling to around 50 Friday night.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Confidence continues to increase for the area to see some much needed beneficial rain beginning Saturday night through at least Monday, with some rain chances lingering into Tuesday before things start drying out once again.

Saturday will be the last day of this extended period of dry weather for the area. We will see a cold front actually move through the area on Saturday, but the front is expected to come through dry at this time. The very dry atmosphere in place initially, with no strong moisture feed ahead of the front will facilitate this dry frontal passage. The front ends up becoming nearly stationary just to the south of the state.

Once the front moves by, the setup over the region becomes much more favorable for rain as better ingredients come together just right.
The first thing that is the catalyst for this pattern change is a fairly decent upper trough that drops into the area. This then helps develop a better low along the frontal boundary, and drive it toward the area. A much better moisture feed then becomes established from the Gulf, and helps to expand rain over the region.

The confidence is high with the rain, but the amounts are still a bit up in the air. This has to do with where the front stalls out, and how the low moves along it. If the low moves a little further east, the best moisture will miss the area to the east. We could see quite a bit of rain if the sfc low comes a little further west.
This is all dependent on how and when the upper low closes off, and the results of the sfc low. As far as thunder chances are concerned, they will be a little better with a further west track, as we would see more instability.

No matter how much rain we see from the front end of this system, we will be under the low/cold pool aloft then on Sunday and Monday, possibly into Tuesday. We will eventually see wrap around moisture make its way around the low, and rotate through the area, along with short waves. The evolution of exactly how this transpires is uncertain, but we will have rain chances through Tuesday along with cool temperatures.

There is fairly good agreement that the upper low gets mostly nudged out of the region by Wednesday. This looks to be the case as a strong Pacific jet stream digs a trough across the West, and builds a decent upper ridge toward the region. There may be a lingering shower to the east on Wednesday, but most of the rain should clear out by then.
There is a small chance of rain showers shown by the GFS on Thursday, as it is trying to bring a short wave down from the NW and touch some showers off. The more likely scenario is that the ridge builds in and dries things out, given the amplitude of the ridge building in.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A few cu will develop this afternoon and then dissipate with sunset leaving mostly clear skies through the rest of the period. North winds this afternoon 10-15 knots will become variable tonight, then back to the northwest Friday at 10-20 knots.



MARINE
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect through early evening. Wind and waves are beginning to increase along the lake shore and 3-5 foot waves are anticipated between 3-5 pm before decreasing.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 pm. Similar conditions are anticipated Friday. However, dewpoints will be 5-7 degrees higher which will push min RH values into the mid 30s percent. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are anticipated along with northwest winds 10-20 knots. Combined with dry conifer fuels, fire danger will continue very high to extreme.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037>040-043- 044.

Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ043- 050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>848.

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