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FXUS65 KBOI 102113 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 213 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday night...A wide swath of precipitation extends across our northern areas this afternoon, generally north of a Burns-Twin Falls line. Snow continues in Baker County into the West Central Mountains for additional light snowfall accumulations this afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 5 pm MST. Snow levels hover between 3000 and 4000 feet across the north, and roughly 4000-5500 feet across the south. Little change is expected overnight as the precipitation band shifts southward overnight.
The band is expected to weaken on Monday with light valley rain and mountain snow. Only light snow accumulations are anticipated in the mountains. A weak upper trough accompanied by light valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers arrives from the north Monday night, then moves southward into Nevada on Tuesday.
Little to no snow accumulations are expected. An upper ridge building into the Pacific Northwest will expand into our area later Tuesday into Tuesday night for a prolonged period of stagnant conditions lasting well into the new week. Models suggest that widespread low stratus/patchy fog develop in this pattern. Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...The entirety of the long term period will be dominated by a continuous ridge centered over our area, keeping us in dry southwesterly flow.
The presence of light winds and stable air will support the continued development of an inversion. Trapped moisture underneath the inversion may see valley stratus lasting through the week. The weak disturbance this weekend is looking even weaker, and deterministic models show almost no change to the upper flow as it passes north of us. This'll keep the ridge-y weather in place through Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal, and if long-lived valley stratus developments, may see little change diurnally.

AVIATION
VFR conditions at, and south of, KBOI expected to become MVFR/IFR as the W-E band of precip moves southward from KBKE/KMYL. Snow levels roughly around 4-5 kft MSL, but up to 7 kft MSL near KBNO. Snow will continue to reduce VIS at KBKE/KMYL to IFR. More rain from KBNO to KBOI is moving in this afternoon. Reduction to MVFR in this area, low confidence for local IFR. At all sites, medium confidence in low CIGs/FG setting in after precipitation clears out. Surface winds: light, generally S but SE in Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: W 15-25 kt.

AIR STAGNATION
A subsidence inversion develops on Tuesday that will likely strengthen and persist through at least next weekend as high pressure dominates over the region.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon IDZ011-033.
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon ORZ062.

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