Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Robie Creek, ID

KEY MESSAGES
- Fire weather risk continues due to thunderstorm activity today.

- Thunderstorms with heavy rain may also increase the risk for flash flooding, especially for recent burn scars today and Saturday.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through early next week.

SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/
Issued 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026 The combination of dynamic, southwest flow aloft and presence of monsoon moisture is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning. Storm activity is currently favoring far east Oregon and portions of southwest/west-central Idaho, with gusts up to 35 mph possible through morning. A brief lull in activity is expected late morning, before resurgent moisture and troughing allows the re-generation of storms across northeast Oregon and west-central/south-central Idaho late afternoon and evening. Latest guidance indicates localized storm outflow gusts to 40-45 mph are possible with stronger storms. Relatively high precipitable water values will also support heavy rain potential under storm cores. These thunderstorm hazards will create fire weather risks as well as flash flooding concerns across steep terrain and local burn scars.

A brief window of drier, more stable air will help diminish storm activity Friday night, before the next shortwave trough arrives Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again Saturday afternoon, generally across southwest/central Idaho and northeast Oregon. Gusty outflows and bursts of heavy rainfall will continue to be the main storm threats. Temperatures both Friday and Saturday will remain slightly below normal due to cloud cover, precip, and the PNW trough influence.

Shower activity will decrease Sunday as high pressure builds northwest into the forecast area throughout the day. Residual moisture and daytime instability will be enough to keep a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will rise a few degrees from Saturday.

LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/
Issued 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026 A shortwave trough is expected to arrive from the northwest on Monday, effectively squashing the upper ridge toward the southeast. Enhanced lift with continued moisture will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Monday through Tuesday across the southwest/central Idaho terrain. Further cooling can be expected Tuesday as the trough makes its way east through the Northern Rockies. The resultant west-northwest flow aloft will then nudge the moisture out of the forecast area while also promoting slightly cooler than normal temperatures late Tuesday through Wednesday. Thereafter, latest model runs are depicting the return of the upper level ridge across the West by late in the week, which would promote warming and potentially re-open the door for the next round of moisture.

AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/
Issued 1214 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will re-develop this afternoon with outflows to 35-45 kt. The highest chances for thunderstorms will be around KBKE/KMYL and the KTWF/KJER area.
Localized MVFR/IFR and mtn obscuration with rain shafts. New fires starts may stand to increase smoke density again, however confidence on that is low. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt, with erratic gusts near storms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Patchy wildfire smoke remains in the area. A 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon.
Surface winds: SE or variable 5-10 kt through early afternoon.
Transitioning to NW-N in the late afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing Saturday. Storms Saturday capable of heavy rain, strong gusty outflows, and MVFR/IFR conditions.
Showers and thunderstorms largely taper off Sunday, with limited coverage near KBKE and the central ID mountains. Surface winds: SW- SE 5-15 kt Saturday, then SW-NW 5-10 kt Sunday.
Light and variable during overnights.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ011.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424- 426.
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for IDZ013.
OR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ062.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ673>675.
Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ this afternoon for ORZ061-063-064.