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FXUS65 KBOI 031008 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 308 AM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday night...A Pacific warm front with a broad swath of moderate to heavy pcpn will move northeastward through our CWA today. As it passes, the snow level will rise rapidly with snow changing to rain as high as 6500 feet MSL.
But before that happens snow will continue to accumulate, especially in the Boise Mountains and west central Idaho mountains, and a winter storm warning for heavy snow will continue in those areas until 5 PM MST. A weak cold front from the northwest will bring lighter rain and snow this evening mainly to Idaho, with the snow level lowering slightly to around 6000 feet MSL. On Monday another north Pacific warm front will bring more pcpn mainly across our northern zones. Snow levels will rise further throughout our CWA especially after the warm front passes. By Monday evening the snow level will be 7000-8500 feet in Idaho, and 8500 to 9000 feet in eastern Oregon, and on Tuesday even higher under an upper ridge. High temps will rise to the 40s in the mountains and lower 50s in the southern valleys, with lows only in the upper 20s and 30s. Winds will be much lighter than they were Saturday, and areas of fog will develop in the valleys during the nights and mornings.


LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...A shortwave trough accompanied by moist west to southwest flow will move through our area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another round of rain and high elevation snow. Snow levels will start out 7000-8000 feet on Wednesday before falling to 4000-5000 feet by early Thursday as colder air arrives with the trough. Another shortwave trough will move through late Thursday into Friday, bringing additional precipitation to our area. Snow levels will continue to lower with this system to around 2500-4000 feet by Friday morning. The mountains will see several inches of additional snow accumulation with these systems, with a chance of snow returning to the lower valleys as snow levels fall Thursday night and Friday. Expect breezy winds on Friday as the trough pushes east of our area. Drier conditions will develop Friday night into Saturday morning as an upper level ridge briefly moves overhead. However, dry conditions may not last long as another system moves into the Pacific Northwest late Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures through the period will trend downward, from 10-15 degrees above normal on Wednesday to within a few degrees of normal by Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
MVFR/IFR and local LIFR due to widespread rain, snow, and low ceilings. Mountains obscured. Snow levels 3-4kft early this morning, rising to 5000-6500 feet by this afternoon.
Precipitation tapering off this evening. Patchy fog developing tonight. Areas of LLWS over 30 kt. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, except 15-25 kt with gusts to 40 kt in southeast Oregon and in Idaho south of the Snake River Valley. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: W-NW 40-60 kt.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon IDZ011-013-028.
OR...None.

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