Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:10PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 4:07 AM PST (12:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 234 Am Pst Wed Mar 3 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning...
Today..N wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to nw 5 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 11 to 12 ft at 14 seconds... Subsiding to 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to S 10 to 20 kt late in the evening, then...rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight...rising to 30 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 6 ft after midnight. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 30 kt. Cape arago southward, S wind 30 kt...rising to gales 35 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft...building to 12 to 15 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 10 ft at 17 seconds. Chance of rain.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Cape arago southward, S wind 30 kt. Wind waves 14 to 17 ft. NW swell 11 ft. Rain.
Fri..S wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Cape arago southward, S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 14 to 17 ft...subsiding to 11 to 14 ft in the afternoon. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Rain.
Fri night..S wind 10 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat..W wind 5 kt...backing to sw in the afternoon, then... Rising to 15 kt in the evening...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft. Mixed swell W 10 ft and sw 6 ft...subsiding to 7 ft and sw 1 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 9 ft... Building to 17 ft.
PZZ300 234 Am Pst Wed Mar 3 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters... High pressure centered to our southwest will give way to a low pressure system moving into the area. This will cause winds to shift from northerly to southerly today. Meanwhile, steep seas will gradually subside. A strong, slow moving frontal system will then approach tonight into Thursday resulting in strong gales, possibly a period of storm force winds, and very steep seas Thursday into Friday. Combined seas are currently expected to peak in the 16 to 27 foot range Thursday night into Friday morning. Large, long period swell may arrive Sunday into Monday, but confidence in that has decreased over the last 24 hours.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 030534 AAA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 934 PM PST Tue Mar 2 2021

. Updated Aviation Discussion .

DISCUSSION. 03/00Z NAM in. 03/00Z GFS in through 84hr.

Mostly clear skies prevail across the Medford forecast area this evening, except for some scattered high clouds here and there and some stratus offshore.

A split flow regime is in place along the west coast with a cutoff low near 32N 128W and light southwest to west flow aloft over Washington and Oregon. The cutoff will gradually move east as an upper trough deepens offshore. The current weather regime won't change much through Wednesday night, so Wednesday will be much like Tuesday was. That means a cool morning with some low clouds and fog along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin, followed by a warm and sunny afternoon and evening.

The trough will slowly approach the west coast, and it and the associated front will make its presence felt beginning Thursday. Precipitation is forecast to reach the coast Thursday afternoon, but it may be delayed until Thursday evening. However, the main concern with this front is winds, mainly along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades Thursday morning through Friday morning. 925 mb winds will be near 70 KT and local guidance is indicating gusts to 70 mph at Flynn Prairie RAWS. In the Shasta valley, south to southwest flow at 60 KT with a RDD-MFR pressure difference of 8-10 mb supports possible Warning strength winds. East of the Cascades, 700 mb winds will be around 60 KT and this may bring Warning strength winds in the usual suspect areas near and east of the Winter ridge. High Wind Watches are in effect. See NPWMFR for details.

The front will move very slowly through the west side and precipitation won't get to the Cascades until Friday afternoon or evening. Even with the slow progress, precipitation amounts will not create flooding concerns and the snow levels will remain above the pass levels for the most part. It's all about the wind with this one.

Extended discussion from the Tuesday afternoon AFD . Fri 05 Mar through Tuesday 09 Mar 2021. All signs point to a continued active weather pattern during the extended forecast period with storms originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Typically these storms bring cool and unsettled weather.

These systems are not expected to be particularly strong or big precipitation producers. The exception could be Friday as a front slowly works it's way inland and could bring a 12-18 hour period of moderate to heavy precipitation to the coast and coastal mountains Friday morning into Friday evening. The front pushes inland Friday night and most areas will get into the action, but precip will be mainly focused in the Mount Shasta area. However snow levels should remain above I-5 and range between 4000 and 4500 feet.

Saturday, the upper trough shifts east of the area during the morning and we could actually catch a relative break in the action as weak ridging builds into the area. This break could carry over to Saturday night before the next front arrives Sunday. A colder air mass follows this front Sunday night where snow levels could get as low as 2000 feet by daybreak Monday, but precipitation should generally be light which should limit road snow concerns.

More systems follow Monday and Tuesday, but the exact timing this far out will likely change over time. However we are confident they will be continued cool and wet. Not only the operational ECMWF and GFS show this, but so do the individual ensemble members of the ECMWF and GEFS. While snow levels are likely to be at least below the higher passes, it is early to mid March which means longer daylight hours and higher sun angle which should limit the road snow concerns at least during the daytime. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 03/06Z TAF Cycle . Along the coast and just offshore, North Bend is currently reporting clear skies, but low clouds are forming just to the north. These clouds will fill southward, returning IFR to North Bend later this evening and tonight. Other areas impacted may include areas of the coast north of Cape Blanco.

Inland west of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The exception will be the chance for IFR to LIFR low clouds and fog mainly valley areas from about the Rogue River north and west of Medford, and along the Klamath River west of Seiad Valley late tonight into tomorrow morning, including Roseburg, but any lower flight conditions should improve mid to late morning.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. -Schaaf/BPN

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PST Tuesday 02 Mar 2021 . Generally light northerly winds are expected to continue into Wednesday as high pressure remains centered west of the area. A weak thermal trough has likely developed, yet is still smaller than what is in the forecast as per buoy data. Still, northwest swell will continue to move through our area, resulting in steep seas through early Wednesday. Seas will peak in the 10 to 13 foot range this evening, then subside overnight.

A strong front will then approach Thursday with strong gales, very steep seas, and heavy rain likely Thursday into Friday. Storm force winds will be possible, although the current forecast tops winds out just short of storm force. A Gale warning has been issued, but if model solutions trend any stronger, storm headlines may be necessary. Very steep and chaotic seas are likely to peak around 25 feet Thursday night into early Friday as southwesterly wind waves and northwest swell combine. Long period westerly swell Sunday into Monday could result in combined seas up around 20 feet again. ~Schaaf/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for ORZ021-022. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for ORZ030-031.

CA . High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/15/13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi71 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast40°F40°F100%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4SE5SE5E6Calm--N7NW10N15N18N17N14
G20
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1 day agoSE6S6SE8SE6S3CalmW6NW7NW6NW5N4CalmE5CalmCalmCalmNE3SE6SE6S5SE5SE3CalmSE6
2 days agoSE6SE8SE8SE8SE7SE8S4NW4W10NW7NW7--NW5NW4N4CalmCalmSE5CalmS4SE5S5SE8SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:50 AM PST     7.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM PST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:28 PM PST     5.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:08 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM PST     1.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.76.27.27.46.95.642.41.10.50.71.62.84.25.35.95.85.24.12.921.61.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Wed -- 03:56 AM PST     7.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:35 AM PST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM PST     5.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:08 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM PST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.64.25.76.87.26.85.74.22.61.30.60.51.22.43.74.95.65.75.14.131.91.41.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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