Tuesday, April13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:58PM Monday April 12, 2021 10:28 PM PDT (05:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:14AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 858 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 12 2021
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 5 am pdt Tuesday...
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. W swell 1 ft at 13 seconds... Shifting to the sw at 16 seconds after midnight.
Tue..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 1 to 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
Thu night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and sw 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon and evening, then...backing to W after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..S wind 5 kt...veering to W in the afternoon, then... Veering to nw in the evening...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 ft.
PZZ300 858 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 12 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas are expected to continue tonight through Tuesday night, highest south of cape blanco. Winds and seas will gradually subside from north to south Wednesday through the rest of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 130410 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 910 PM PDT Mon Apr 12 2021

UPDATE. The forecast has been updated for a few fine scale adjustments to the Tuesday forecast. North to northeast winds are expected to reach peak speeds late Tuesday afternoon and will reach a peak for the week, with east side gusts at 25 to 40 mph and west side gusts at 15 to 30 mph.

An upper trough now over northern Idaho will move to very near the border of Oregon/Nevada/California on Tuesday with a substantial increase in mainly mid and upper level moisture over Lake and Modoc counties. Virga should be more common than precipitation. But, there will be a slight chance to chance of light snow showers and mixed rain and snow showers in that area, with the highest probability over the Warner Mountains. East side temperatures will be about 8 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow with Tuesday expected to be the coolest day of this week. West side highs will also be several degrees cooler. The exception to the cooling across our area will be at Brookings with the downslope warming of northeast winds likely producing a high near 70.

Farther to the west, away from the center of the trough cloud cover will diminish. On Wednesday, the trough will shift slightly eastward. This will be enough to push the region of instability and shower activity east and southeast of our area. From Wednesday through Sunday, high pressure will build with temperatures near normal at the coast but trending higher inland. Highs during the weekend will be the warmest of the year so far for many sites with 80s expected to be common on the west side and 70s on the east side.

Forecast confidence diminishes beyond Sunday, but the outlook is for at least a weakening of the ridge next week with the potential for a pattern shift to a trough dominated pattern. This would be cooler and potentially showery (about a 20 to 30% probability of at least measureable amounts in some portion of our area), but the probability of anything worthy of being called a wet pattern is only about 5 to 10%.

AVIATION. For the 13/00Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with gusty north to northeast winds at the coast, including North Bend this evening and Tuesday afternoon and evening. As low pressure approaches from the north on Tuesday morning, northeast winds will also become gusty, impacting areas east of the Cascades first and then spreading across much of the forecast area through Tuesday evening. -DW

MARINE. Updated 830 PM PDT Monday, 12 Apr 2021 . North winds have lowered below gales south of Cape Blanco this evening, but moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas are expected to continue overnight through Tuesday night. We have cancelled the Gale Warning, but have maintained all other headlines.

Winds are expected to tick upwards again on Tuesday afternoon with very steep seas expected in the southern outer waters. Elsewhere, Small Craft conditions are likely and have also extended the end time for this headline through Tuesday night. Winds and seas will gradually subside from north to south on Wednesday, but steep seas will continue south of Cape Blanco at least. Winds and seas are then expected to drop below Small Craft Advisory level for all areas by Thursday. -Keene/Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 249 PM PDT Mon Apr 12 2021/

SHORT TERM . This afternoon through Wednesday night . Sunny skies continue across the region this afternoon, with temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Breezy winds are expected this afternoon and evening

This evening into Tuesday, an upper level trough digs over the Pacific Northwest and lingers through much of the week. Although this is an "inside slider", there is some moisture associated with it. However, this moisture will be limited to the far eastern areas of the forecast area (Klamath, Lake, Modoc counties). Cloud cover is expected to increase for those areas Tuesday morning and afternoon, and it's possible that some light precipitation (emphasis on light) could fall Tuesday afternoon over portions of Lake and Modoc counties. Model ensembles as well as high resolution models continue to indicate some light precipitation (<0.02") potential for those areas, so have expanded slight chance PoPs across the east side for Tuesday afternoon. Am still skeptical that any precipitation will make it to the ground given the preceding dry conditions, so at the very least expect an increase in cloud cover with virga.

The more noticeable element of this upper level trough will be gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will be stronger Tuesday than today across the forecast area, but especially so across the East Side. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected across the area west of the Cascades, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph common across the East Side. The trajectory of this low brings the strongest 700 mb winds over the coastal waters, and with 700 mb winds across the East Side limited to 25 to 35 kt, wind speeds should remain below advisory criteria. It should be noted, however, that it has been quite some time since the area has recieved wetting rains (about three weeks) and these strong winds will be coupled with minimum humidities similar to summer-time values. Given the dry state of things, use caution if dealing with anything that could potentially start a fire.

Winds ease Tuesday night, but low pressure remains over the region, gradually weakening as the week progresses. Expect another round of breezy conditions Wednesday, although weaker than what is expected Tuesday. With low pressure overhead, afternoon temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler both Tuesday and Wednesday than today's highs. /BR-y

LONG TERM . Thursday through Sunday . The gusty winds on the East Side will begin to calm as the low pressure system stalls and weakens. Very dry humidities will, however, continue since we will remain in north to northeast flow. This period of mild to warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue to erode snowpack for most of the extended forecast time frame.

Ensembles are hinting at a weak frontal system moving through the Pacific Northwest early next week. This front would be extremely weak, and light precipitation could occur for portion of the Coast, Coast Range, and Umpqua Basin. However, this is likely a bit overdone, and expect the rain chances in the forecast to decrease as this time frame comes closer. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

DW/MAS/BR-y


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 20 mi33 min 48°F9 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi53 min NNE 13 G 22 1017.9 hPa
SNTO3 28 mi59 min N 4.1 48°F 1018 hPa44°F
46128 32 mi89 min 48°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi33 minN 1310.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN9N8N8N10N8NE5NE5NE7N6N6N7N11N12N15N18
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2 days agoSE7SE5SE8SE8SE7SE6SE7SE9SE4S4N9N6N10N11N12N13
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:32 AM PDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:23 PM PDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM PDT     1.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.86.56.55.84.52.91.50.40.10.41.42.7455.65.54.83.82.82.11.82.23.14.3

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:39 AM PDT     6.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM PDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:29 PM PDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:11 PM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:46 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.25.46.26.35.84.63.21.80.70.10.212.23.64.75.45.44.83.82.81.91.51.72.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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